Padres Trail

And Then There Were Two

2012-01-18T06:30:00.000-08:00

Padres had 11 arbitration-eligible players unsigned on Monday. As of Tuesday, all but 2 are signed. Only Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley remain.

If the MLB.com depth chart is to believed, both pitchers are expected to be members of the 2012 rotation, along with Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, and Edison Volquez. With Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc traded, San Diego doesn't have many fall-back options should they not sign either or both. Of the non-roster invitees, only Matt Palmer has major-league starting experience, which amounts to 20 starts over 4 years. He's also only thrown 49 innings in the majors since the end of the 2009 season. Not much of a stop-gap option.

Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland are the long-term solutions (as well as possibly Anthony Bass), but the former 2 are at least a year away and the latter one is slotted for more bullpen experience. Many have argued Bass is not yet ready to be a full-time starter. As time permits I hope to take a look at that.

If nothing else, the good news is Padres payroll is headed up. They had the third-lowest payroll on Opening Day 2011 and likely will be in the bottom quarter of all teams this season. They still have a ways to go to be competitive, but at least the team is trending in the right direction.

Bell to Marlins

2011-12-02T07:44:00.000-08:00

Yesterday my second post on the Padres for Baseball Digest went live. It was a projection on what off-season moves the Padres would make; because San Diego was among the bottom 5 teams in the league offensively in 2011, it seemed logical they would attempt to improve the club at the plate.

Late yesterday Heath Bell reportedly signed a 3-yr, $27M deal with Miami. Josh Byrnes reportedly stated his priority at the Winter Meetings would be finding someone to pitch the 8th and 9th innings. So much for my powers of prediction.

One other errata to correct. In an earlier post I noted that the Padres would not get compensation picks if Bell signed with someone else before 8 December. In reviewing the rules that is not the case, which makes sense as people who cover baseball for a living say the Padres will get 2 comp picks for Bell.

OK. Enough of the self-flagellation. It surprises me that the Padres would make filling in the holes in the back of their bullpen a priority. They must think they are good to go already offensively. The model they used successfully in 2010 involved shut-down pitching and just enough offense, to be sure, but even in 2010 their wRC+ as a team was 93, in the bottom half of the league. Last year it was 89, fifth-worst in baseball.

It doesn't matter how effective one's pitching staff is. If the team can't score runs they will not win. San Diego was one of 3 teams not to score 600 runs last season. Their final total of 593 was 68 fewer than they scored in 2010. They have to fix that.

San Diego has been stockpiling arms for a couple of seasons now. Brad Brach was the closer in AA last season; while doing that in AA is not the same as doing in in the majors, he's not completely green either. One would think they could find an internal candidate to cover the eighth, or just slide Luke Gregerson into that slot and give the 6th/7th to a less-experienced arm.

I look forward to seeing what Byrnes does next week. The winter meetings just got a whole lot more interesting.

Bell, Harang Offered Arbitration

2011-11-30T07:04:00.000-08:00

First, a bit of self-promotion. I'm providing a couple of articles for the Baseball Digest website on the Padres. The first went up on the site Tuesday, and yes - it's yet another 2011 season review. If you have some time I hope you surf over there and take a read. You can link to it from here.

Baseball Digest is the oldest baseball magazine in the US, currently published 6 times a year. They are trying to expand their on-line presence, which includes content different from what appears in the magazine. Thanks in advance for reading.

Back to the Padres. Since the news came out a week ago, on the day before Thanksgiving, I missed it, but it included some of the news we've been waiting for. San Diego offered arbitration to Heath Bell and Aaron Harang.

The Bell decision has been discussed ad nauseaum both here and on other forums. Based on how the closer market has initially played out (see the contract offer to Ryan Madson and contract signed by Jonathan Papelbon), Bell will likely make around $10M to pitch in 2012 regardless of where he toils. For a Padres team likely to not have a payroll north of $50M, his salary represents at least 20% of the total team payroll. That is a lot - especially considering he will throw less than 80 innings next season.

From a PR perspective the Padres were forced to offer arbitration to Bell. He is the biggest name draw currently on the roster. He has previously stated he wants to pitch here and the Padres can use all the good PR they can get. From a practical perspective, because of their limited financial assets this team has to build through the draft, and getting the 2 compensation picks for Bell is a must. Now the team has to hope he both does not sign a free-agent deal with someone else before 9 December and declines arbitration, so they get those picks.

Which brings us to Harang. Did you know he was a Type B free agent? He led the Padres in wins but was only worth 0.6 WAR according to Fangraphs (1.9 by Baseball Reference). This arbitration offer is really interesting to me, but from a social perspective vice a baseball one. Recall that the Padres held a mutual option on Harang for 2012, at $5M. Aaron wanted to return but San Diego declined to pick up his option. Now they've offered him arbitration.

So basically what they're saying is, 'We wouldn't mind having you back, but we think you're worth less than $5M, and what we really want is the draft pick.' I'd have loved to be a fly-on-the-wall for the conversation between GM Josh Byrnes and Harang's agent. Can you even have that discussion without insulting the player? The poetic-justice outcome here would be for Harang to accept arbitration and get a pay bump north of the $5M he was to have received if the option had been honored.

Heath Bell's contract resolution will be more extensively covered, but I for one can't wait to see how Harang's arbitration case plays out.

LeBlanc to the Marlins

2011-11-23T07:59:00.000-08:00

The Padres announced yesterday they had traded Wade LeBlanc to Miami for catcher John Baker.

About 2 months ago I talked about doing a series of stories on what I would do as the Padres GM. As usual those posts never materialized, mostly because I suck at time management. I may still get to them - I hope to get to them - but one topic is now off the table. I had intended to discuss trading LeBlanc for a back-up catcher because that's about what I thought San Diego could get for him. I can't prove it; I never documented it anywhere; but it's true nonetheless.

LeBlanc is one of thousands of guys who have utility in a major league organization but are never going to contribute much on a year-to-year basis. That sounds like a knock on him, but it really isn't. Wade LeBlanc's talent level is such that he successfully made it to the Majors and has thrown almost 300 ML innings over parts of 4 seasons. He's in the top 1% of all people playing baseball. The Elite.

The problem was his skill set was never going to get him out of the spot starter/possible long man role, nor get him off the shuttle from the big club to AAA. In 2010, the lone season he spent most of his time in the majors, he made 25 starts, threw 146 innings, and struck out 110. He also allowed a whopping 24 HR over those 146 innings, or a dinger every six innings. In 54 career appearances (52 starts) he allowed 44 HR. It was never a question of if Wade LeBlanc would allow a HR - it was a question of when.

By ERA+ he was below average every year less 2008 (103). By Fangraphs WAR last season was the first one he didn't post a negative number (Baseball Reference is somewhat more forgiving, crediting him with 0.7/0.3/0.2 WAR each of the last 3 seasons). With the Padres currently projecting a rotation of Latos/Luebke/Stauffer/Richard/Bass there was no room for him at the inn. (Ed. Note: Dustin Moseley would also be a candidate for the rotation assuming he re-signs wtih the Padres.)

The Padres get John Baker in return. He has 104 PA in the majors the last 2 seasons, and missed virtually all of 2011 while recoverng from right elbow surgery. In 2009 he played in 112 games and posted a .271/.349/.410 line, good enough for a .333 wOBA and 99 wRC+. He'll be 31 when this season starts.

San Diego had to do something to protect Hundley. Rob Johnson was released, Kyle Phillips posted an OPS+ of 56 in thirty-six games, and Luis Martinez isn't ready. As a back-up option, they could do worse. Baker is also left-handed. I can't imagine the Padres will platoon Hundley - that would really be dumb - but Baker will give them another left-handed option off the bench besides Mark Kotsay.

Wade LeBlanc will likely not be long remembered. He was, however, a useful piece of the puzzle for the last 4 seasons, be it as a long reliever, a spot starter, or a regular starter due to injury. If he becomes a mainstay in the Marlin rotation I would be the first one in line to congratulate him on his success.

Bell Through the Papelbon Glass

2011-11-16T07:30:00.000-08:00

You may have heard about Jonathan Papelbon's 4 year/$50,000,058 contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. You may have also heard the Phillies initially offered incumbent closer Ryan Madson $44M for those same 4 years. What does this all mean for Heath Bell returning to the Padres?

Using Fangraphs WAR (fWAR), and looking only at the years since Bell became the primary Padres closer, we find that Papelbon was worth 6.2 WAR from 2009-2011 (2.0 in '09, 1.2 in '10, 3.0 in '11). Over that same period, and looking at only the free-agent closers, we get this list:

Bell 4.8 WAR
Madson 4.3 WAR
Broxton 3.7 WAR
K-Rod 3.0 WAR
Nathan 1.9 WAR

If you agree with Dave Cameron's supposition that free agents will be paid approximately $5M per win per year, the Phillies actually paid about the right amount - they're paying for 2.5 wins per year on that contract, and Papelbon has averaged 2.43 wins over the past six years.

It would also mean Bell's 1.6 average WAR over his past 3 seasons is worth about $8M per. He made $7.5M last season and posted a 0.5 WAR season, so perhaps he would be satisfied with that. Not likely, based on what the Phillies offered Madson. Amaro's $44M for 4 years way over-estimated what Madson was worth based on past performance. It will, however, likely set the market for the men on the above list - more so than what Papelbon got.

What's it all mean for Josh Byrnes and the Padres? They're screwed. If they offer arbitration and Bell accepts, he's likely to get between $11M and $12.5M next year, which would be about 25% of the Padres intended payroll for 2012. Tying up that much of your payroll in a guy who hasn't thrown more than 70 innings since becoming the closer (or ~5% of the total innings Padres pitchers will throw in 2012) is ludicrous. If they don't offer him arbitration they will lose the two draft picks they would get for Bell (he's a Type A free agent) when he signs somewhere else.

Bell's not coming back. I believe the Padres will decline to offer him arbitration based on how this free agent market is playing out.

Update: There's a story about Heath Bell in today's UT. In the story there's a money quote:

Bell said accepting arbitration is still an option, although it doesn’t seem as strong an option as it was before.

“I have to weigh all my options,” said Bell. “I don’t know what I’m going to do. But it seems like there are going to be some very good options soon. And after everything that has happened with the Padres, I don’t know what is going on.

“They lost the general manager (Hoyer) and the guy (Jason McLeod) responsible for building the future Padres through the draft.”

That sounds like a man who's resigned to leaving.

The story also says the Padres would receive the two comp picks if he signs with another team, even if they don't offer him arbitration. Can anyone confirm that's true? Assuming it is, why in the world would the Padres offer Bell arbitration?

Update #2: From Twitter, arbitration offer must be made in order to get the comp picks if a Type A/B free agent signs with another team. Caveat - if the FA signs before the arbitration offer deadline (this year 8 Dec), then even if an offer was made the picks are forfeited. Thanks to @PitchersHit8th, @JonDoble, and @Dathan7 for the assist in clearing this up.

Quick Hits

2011-11-11T08:35:00.000-08:00

Couple of things on this holiday Friday:

- Padres unveiled the 2012 uniforms Wednesday night. Lots of reactions out there, ranging from from 'meh' to 'Outrage!' I'm finding myself in the meh camp. Other than a wish they'd left the Friar in an ecumenically correct habit, I can't get fired up about the modification.

Fans build strong attachments to teams when the team is successful over a sustained stretch of time. San Diego has never really had that. The closest they came, in my opinion, was from 1996 to 2007, and they changed their unis during that stretch of success. So changing them now is par for the course. Whatever.

- I have a Veterans Day post up at I-70 Baseball, if you're interested.

If you have today off, enjoy it. And thank a Vet if you run into one.

Headley vs Freese

2011-11-08T07:30:00.000-08:00

Flashing a little leather. Even when the ball is ruled foul.

David Freese is the reigning NL NLCS and World Series MVP. A lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth has appeared recently regarding the 2007 trade of Freese to St Louis for Jim Edmonds. Let's separate fact from fiction. Freese became the Cardinals third baseman in 2009. Chase Headley became the Padres full-time third baseman the same year. How do the two men stack up?

Headley came to the majors as the next great Padre power hitter, and he charged out of the gate. Headley hit HRs in 2 of his first 4 games after being called up for good in 2008. Since? He hit 34 HR in his next 517 games. Freese didn't make it to the majors with as high of a set of expectations as Headley did, but he's hit the ball about as well. Freese's OPS+ (116) is slightly better than Headley's (105), but their career slash lines are pretty close:

Freese .298/.354/.429
Headley .269/.343/.392

Freese hits for a higher average and more power. Most will assume his power numbers are a product of playing at a more hitter-friendly park, but the reality is Busch is only slightly less of a pitcher's park than Petco. You read that correctly. So the edge on pure offense goes to Freese.

Defensively the edge goes to Headley, and it's not particularly close. In his three years as the everyday starter he has excelled with the glove. Chase Headley was ranked the #1 defensive third baseman on the Dewan Plus/Minus scale (which can be found at Bill James' website), saving 19 runs. Last season he was 10th but still credited with saving 2 runs in his 113 games. Freese, on the other hand, has never had a positive runs saved number. This year he was -1. Last year he was -4. If you watched any of the World Series, you saw Freese get eaten up by several ground balls to third. He looked slow. And no, I am not counting the pop up that hit him in the head in Game 6. Headley in a rout.

Then there's the injury bug. In his three major league seasons, Freese has yet to play 100 regular season games. Over the same span Chase Headley has yet to play LESS than 100 regular season games. San Diego suffers from a systemic lack of infield prospects. Suppose Freese had stayed with the Padres and reached the majors, with Headley having been moved. The Padres would have had to have someone play almost as many games at third as Freese did. Could you see Jesus Guzman trying to man the hot corner for the 40% of the season Freese is on the DL? Better offensively, worse defensively.

Because to his injuries, Freese lags Headley in fWAR. For the 3 years in question Freese's WAR is 4.4. Headley's is more than double that (9.1). It's what we expect given the disparity in playing time and defense.

What is the point of this exercise? To show that Headley has been a better bet than Freese over the past 3 years in terms of defense and durability. The Padres have been better off with Headley at third than they would have been had Freese taken over the hot corner. Those recently bashing Kevin Towers for that late 2007 trade have lost sight of this fact.

Padres beat the Cardinals

2011-11-04T15:54:00.000-07:00

Apologies for the hiatus. Baseball's playoffs got in the way.

This won't be a long post. Just a quick explanation of what's going on that I can't pack into 140 characters. Many/most of you probably know I have two blogs that I author: this one, and Stan Musial's Stance, which as the name implies focuses on the Cardinals. As much as I would have liked to keep both going, it became increasingly difficult to put up well-thought out commentary on both sites.

Well as well-thought out commentary as you're ever likely to get from me.

Once the Cardinals completed their exhilarating run to the 2011 championship, I took a hard look at where I should focus my attention and the Padres won out. This area is my home now, I see significantly more Padres games on a yearly basis than Cardinal contests, and I'm immersed in Padres source material from the SDUT and XX1090 (as well as my fellow Padres bloggers).

This may be the first time the Padres have beaten out the Cardinals at anything.

So here we go. There are a lot of good Padres blogs out there and I hope you add this one to your rotation of weekly reads. I will be posting as my schedule allows but promise at least 2 posts per week. The occasional Cardinal-themed post may appear - hopefully that won't put you off too much - but the majority of topics will be Padres commentary and SABR-focused articles on the team.

Thanks in advance for reading. Looking forward to interacting with you.

Jed Hoyer to Cubs: My Two Cents

2011-10-20T10:43:00.000-07:00

Rumors have been floating for two weeks that Theo Epstein will leave Boston and become a Senior VP with the Chicago Cubs. I could not care less about that.

The last few days have seen the start of, and intensifying reporting on, rumors Jed Hoyer or Josh Byrnes are going to Chicago as GM under Theo. Today it seems all but a done deal that Hoyer is gone. I care a little more about that.

The San Diego Padres currently suffer from a lack of offensive talent on the major league roster. The reasons why can be distilled into three parts - the trade of Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, the low team payroll, and a farm system bereft of offensive talent. The Gonzo trade and the low payroll go hand-in-hand IMHO - ownership has artifically restricted the size of the payroll, and decided it did not want to pay Adrian what he was worth.

The other problem is systemic and needed to be fixed anyway for the long-term viability of the franchise. One of Boston's claims to fame has been their ability to identify, develop, and promote prospects into contributing members of the Red Sox. The best two examples of that success are Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Since Hoyer worked in the front office that did that drafting, it made a certain amount of sense to hire someone with a strong player development background.

To that end he brought Jason McLeod with him from Boston and significantly expanded the player development department.  San Diego still has a bottom-half farm system but is at least working in the right direction. This is a good thing.

Now Hoyer is reportedly leaving to go to Chicago. Maybe he chafed under the small payroll he had to work with in San Diego. Maybe Josh Byrnes' relationship with Moorad made things awkward in the Padre front office. We don't know, and probably won't know. What we should care about is that the Padres continue to aggressively draft premium talent and get them to the major league roster. What we should also care about is that McLeod stays in the San Diego front office. What we should also care about is that Moorad takes the austerity measure handcuffs off the team payroll and allow it to grow. Not to a number that starts with a "5", but something more reasonable, like a "7" or "8".

Hoyer, Byrnes, Kevin Towers, Daffy Duck, Ivan Drago, Optimus Prime, Mel Zeb, me, you ... it doesn't matter who the Padres GM is. It does matter that the payroll budget get bigger. And, it really matters the organization continue to draft good offensive prospects and get those guys to the majors.

I don't care that Hoyer's leaving. I will care if McLeod follows.

UPDATE: This story has gained all sorts of momentum.

Item: The Cubs asked for Josh Byrnes first but Padres said no.
Item:  Hoyer offered to stay in San Diego for a 5-year extension and was told no. Honestly this one is funny to me. It would appear Hoyer tried to leverage his impending departure into a pay raise. A little corporate blackmail, perhaps.
Item:  Jason McLeod is also almost out the door.

All that can be found in this story at ESPN.

It pisses me off. I appreciate the loyalty Moorad is showing Byrnes, but these developments piss me off. He's letting the architect of the Padres minor league revival walk. He's letting a GM with a plan walk. And for what, in return? Nothing.

I don't care that Ricketts and Moorad are friends. Owning a baseball team is like being a sovereign country. Owners don't have friends - they have INTERESTS. It should be in the INTEREST of Moorad and the Padres ownership to build and bring a championship to San Diego. It is not in the INTEREST of the San Diego Padres to let two bright young minds, who are under contract, leave without compensation.

Moorad traded away the best position player San Diego had since Tony Gwynn retired. Now he allows the core of his front office to walk away. If he's trying to build a fan base that's the wrong way to go about doing it. I feel for the Padres ticket sales staff - how do you sell this product? Related, get ready for hordes of visiting team fans to descend on the ballpark next year - they may be the only ones who go in large numbers.

Assuming, of course, YOU go.

BBA Topic - Walter Johnson Award

2011-10-18T07:30:00.000-07:00

After each regular season, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance votes on the best manager, rookie, relief pitcher, starting pitcher, and most valuable player in each league. Today we discuss the best starting pitcher - aptly named the Walter Johnson Award.

The BBA ballot requires three names. For the National League, the three names are easy. The hard part is deciding in what order they should fall. Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, and Cliff Lee were the best three pitchers in the National League this season, and they threw virtually the same number of innings (Halladay 233 2/3, Kershaw 233 1/3, Lee 232 2/3), so one can compare their numbers without applying any correction factor.

So let's compare them. Here are their season numbers, per Fangraphs.

I left their W/L/WAR numbers off deliberately. Innings Pitched we've already discussed. Wins/Losses have become less relevant to measuring a pitcher's worth in the relief pitcher era, and WAR? Well, WAR has become too simple an answer for me (that's a topic best left to a future post).

So what do we have? Halladay issued the fewest walks, allowed the least number of HRs, got the most groundballs, and had the best Fielding Independent Percentage. Kershaw struck out the most per nine innings, had the lowest percentage of balls in play turn into hits, and the lowest Earned Run Average. Lee stranded more runners then either two, and had the lowest Expected Fielding Independent Percentage.

Doesn't really help, does it?

Let's try again. The fact that Kershaw has the lowest ground ball rate (so conversely, the highest fly ball rate) of the three matches his lowest BABIP of the three. Fly ball pitchers tend to have a lower BABIP. Using that logic, it would explain why Halladay's BABIP is slightly higher than Lee's.

Some folks have argued part of Kershaw's success is based on his home ballpark. Dodger Stadium is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Citizen's Bank is a pitcher-neutral one. Kershaw giving up fewer HR than Lee can be explained by the ballpark factor, but Halladay gave up fewer than either while pitching in the same home ballpark Lee pitches in.

Lee's strikeouts per nine, strand rate, and expected FIP are better than Halladay's. Halladay, however, has fewer walks, HR, a lower ERA and FIP than Lee. I think ultimately that places Halladay ahead of Lee. Kershaw has a higher walk rate than Lee, but in the other categories (K/9, HR allowed, ERA, FIP) he's better.

Cliff Lee becomes the #3 NL pitcher.

How to split Kershaw and Halladay is tough - very tough. They are virtually even everywhere, and the one area where they do differ (HR's allowed) I believe has more to do with Halladay being a ground ball pitcher in a park where fly balls fly out than in any real difference in quality between the two pitchers. Roy Halladay has been consistently brilliant for years, and is the reigning Walter Johnson Award Winner. Clayton Kershaw is only 23 years old and may just be starting to realize his enormous potential.

I've tried to be objective. Let's be arbitrary. Halladay had fewer bad days than Kershaw did. Roy Halladay had only one 2011 start in which he gave up more than 5 ER. Kershaw had four. Halladay was more consistently brilliant than Kershaw. We'll make that the straw that broke the camel's back.

The Padres Trail 2011 Walter Johnson Award Ballot:

Roy Halladay
Clayton Kershaw
Cliff Lee

As always, thanks for reading and your comments are welcome.

UPDATE 10/22: I neglected to make the ballot 5 deep, which is the BBA requirement. So, hurriedly, I've added these two names:

4. Ian Kennedy
5. Jair Jurrjens

Kennedy pitched extremely well for the Arizona Diamondbacks throughout the 2011 season, and tied for the league lead in wins (21). Jurrjens had a fantastic first half of the season before getting hurt and missing all of September. If I've missed someone deserving, post it in the comments.

Team Leaders

2011-10-16T09:01:00.000-07:00

Ryan Ludwick does not exist. He never existed.

If you go to the Padres official website, about half-way down you'll find a section labeled '2011 team leaders'. It lists Nick Hundley, Cameron Maybin, and Will Venable as the team HR leaders with 9 each. It also shows Jesus Guzman, Chase Headley, and Venable as the team RBI leaders with 44 each.

Ryan Ludwick's 11 HR and 64 RBI as a Padre are conveniently forgotten. For some reason this really offends me. It's as if the team does not want to acknowledge his contributions to the 2011 effort.

I got into a psuedo-argument about this on Twitter last night. The reasons given for why he's not listed included 'he was traded' and 'its more about who's on the current roster'. Fine. Then don't label that section on the website '2011 Team Leaders'. Call it something else - Active Padres Leaders, or Current Roster Leaders, or The Best We've Got Left As The Season Ended.

Ludwick's stats didn't cease to count just because he was traded to Pittsburgh 15 minutes before the trade deadline. He was still the most productive Padre in these two areas during the 2011 season. It's ridiculous to pretend he wasn't. Besides, what good does it do to present the data in this way? Ludwick is still listed on the sortable stats page as a Padre (as he should be), and if one sorts by HR or RBI guess who's name sits at the top of the list. Go to the 2011 San Diego Padres team page on Baseball Reference, and guess who's still listed there? Ludwick! Of course B-Ref has him as the everyday LF, but that's because he played more games in LF than any other Padre in 2011, which is how B-Ref organizes their data.

So who are we trying to fool here - the fans? That's insulting to all fans everywhere.

There are other ways to sell the current roster. Highlight Maybin's success in 2011. Talk about how Hundley recovered from his first half injuries to become a force at the plate after the All-Star Break. Mention Anthony Bass' development, and how (according to what I've read) he's continuing to progress in the Arizona Fall League. Hype Cory Spangenberg.

Just don't tell me the team leaders in HR and RBI were guys who fell 2 HR and 20 RBI short of a player that left via a team decision 7/31.

In case you think I'm being unreasonable (and you might), consider this. In 1990 Willie McGee was traded, at the end of August, from St Louis to Oakland. At the time he led the NL in batting average (.335). Even though he spent the last month of the season in the other league, he had accrued enough at bats to qualify for the NL batting title. At seasons end, no other NL hitter had caught him, so McGee won the NL batting title ... despite no longer playing in the league.

If Major League Baseball, that stodgy organization, could recognize McGee for his performance in the NL before he was traded, why can't the Padres do the same thing with their '2011 team leaders'? Who are they trying to kid.

Pretending Ludwick's numbers don't qualify as a team leader because he was dealt at the trade deadline is dishonest. The Padres are wrong to present the 2011 team leader stats without including him.

BBA Topic - Connie Mack Award

2011-10-08T20:00:00.000-07:00

Each year, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance member chapters vote on their post-season awards. Some awards are similar to those voted on by the BBWAA, and some are unique. The Connie Mack award is given to each league's top manager.

The San Diego Chapter gets two votes for each category. You can read Left Coast Bias' selections here. Mine are below.

Manager of the Year is tough, because it seems the odds-on favorite for the award typically manages a team widely expected to suck before the season started. Which then means the award goes to the team that did the best job proving the prognosticators wrong. I don't have a snappy, simple solution for fixing that; I just point it out.

With that said, whom to vote for? I need to narrow down the field, so let's make it easy - I'll eliminate all teams that finished below .500 this season. The only team I slightly regret dropping from consideration this way is Pittsburgh. Clint Hurdle did a fantastic job (or was the NL Central just that mediocre) keeping them in contention until the end of July; but after that the Pirates collapsed, finishing 18 games under. So it's a slight regret.

That leaves Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, St Louis, Arizona, San Francisco, and Los Angeles as the contenders. Atlanta is out; you blow a 9.5 game lead, you get no votes as the league's best manager. San Francisco gets dropped; the Giants faded badly after the trade deadline. That takes us to five. Five is a manageable number.

The Padres Trail ballot for Connie Mack is:

Kirk Gibson, Diamondbacks - Yeah, I'm in the 'vote for the team that most exceeded pre-season expectations' category. Gibson took a Diamondbacks team widely expected to challenge the Padres for NL West basement occupancy and instead led them to the NL West Title. Granted, most of the rebirth in Arizona is the handiwork of several GMs, including Kevin Towers' rebuild of the bullpen. However the Diamondbacks have had one of the more talented rosters in the league for several years, and never played to their talent. Gibson got that talent to shine.
Charlie Manuel, Phillies - The amount of pressure placed on the manager of a team widely expected to be the best in the league is immense. Many buckle under it. Manuel led his team to the best record in the league.
Tony LaRussa, Cardinals - He lost his best starting pitcher in spring training, and his early bullpen was a mess. And yet, he found a way to motivate his team and get them into the post-season.
Ron Roenicke, Brewers - Another manager with the weight of expectations. Prince Fielder is widely expected to play somewhere else next year, so the Brewer management went all in for this season, and brought in a new manager to lead the troops. Additionally, he lost one of the off-season prizes, Zack Grienke, for 6 weeks due to injury. A torrid August secured the NL Central for Milwaukee.
Don Mattingly, Dodgers - The Dodger organization is a mess. Everyone knows about the McCourt scandal and legal death match with MLB. All that drama affected the major league team. It took them about 4 months to successfully deal with it, but they finally got it together, closing with a 41-28 kick and getting into third in the NL West.

Game Reflections - #162 vs Cubs

2011-09-29T12:39:00.000-07:00

It's been an emotional roller-coaster of a last 24 hours. Three ridiculously tense elimination games stretched the drama out for almost 3 hours, and then today Geoff Young announces he's hanging them up.

What will tomorrow bring?

We have one more Game Reflection to go, as I was at last night's game. Then, back to the GM series (no really - they are going to happen; it's not just a tease). Padres won last night 9-2.

- Cameron Maybin stole his 40th base last night, a third inning swipe of third with two out. He became the ninth Padre to steal at least that many and the first Padre to do so since Dave Roberts in 2006. The milestone was important to him and congratulations are appropriate for acheiving it. In terms of pure baseball, however, there was no reason to steal that bag. With two out, he would have been running on any pitch hit into play, and with his speed, he would have scored easily from second on a base hit to the outfield. I guess these are the things that happen during the last game of the season.

- Chase Headley's strikeout to end the third, and Will Venable's strikeout for the second out of the eighth, should be credited to home plate umpire Mark Ripperger. Why? Because the 3-1 pitch Ripperger called a strike was a ball. It was off the plate outside, and had been called a ball pretty consistently by Ripperger to that point. Headley swung and missed a 3-2 pitch in the same spot (also a ball). Same thing happened to Will Venable on a 3-0 pitch. He swung at a 3-2 pitch that was ball because the same pitch was a strike 3-0. When people get irritated by inconsistent umpiring, this is what they're talking about.

- The fourth inning ended with a caught stealing of home, but it wasn't a true caught stealing of home. Wade LeBlanc picked off Cub speedster Tony Campana with the third consecutive throw over. During that rundown, Lou Montanez broke for the plate, and the Padres tagged him out. I love rundowns, because you get cool sequences of numbers when the out is recorded. This play went 1-3-6-2-5-3.

- Ryan Dempster was cruising right along until he walked LeBlanc on 5 pitches. Then the wheels came off. Double to Maybin, walk to Venable, 3-Run shot to Nick Hundley. The 3-2 pitch Hundley hit out was RIGHT down the middle; I mean, it couldn't have been set on a tee in a more advantageous hitting position. Dempster wobbled through the 4th, although to be fair his defense betrayed him, kicking a sure double-play ball; recovered for a strong fifth, then started getting tagged in the sixth. I was very surprised Cub manager Mike Quade left him in there for 119 pitches.

- Venable ended the drama in this game with a Grand Slam in the sixth, Dempster's last pitch. It was the only grand slam hit by the Padres this year at Petco, and brings us to an interesting stat. San Diego (by my count) has hit 12 home grand slams since Petco Park opened in 2004 (they're buried in this list). That's not what's interesting, here is what is: last night marked only the second time since Petco opened that the home team has hit a 3-R HR and a grand slam in the same game. The other time? September 17, 2005, the night the first grand slam was hit at Petco by a Padre. Ramon Hernandez hit the 3-run shot and Khalil Greene the slam.

Once Venable's HR left the ballpark the scoreboard watching started in earnest. I don't have to explain what that was like, as it's all over the internet today. An incredible night of baseball. The funniest thing about it to me is the sequence of games. St Louis/Houston was the last of the 4 wild card impact games to start and the first one to finish, thanks to Chris Carpenter's 11-strikeout complete game. Philadelphia/Atlanta, Boston/Baltimore, and New York/Tampa Bay all ended within 25 minutes of each other, or, in different units of measure, while I was walking across the parking lot, while I was on the freeway headed home, and while I was turning onto my street. If the playoffs bring half that much tension to the table, it will be an exciting 2011 post-season.

We can only hope.

Short Term Gain, Long Term Loss

2011-09-28T07:49:00.000-07:00

Amazingly, the Scott and BR show this morning did not start off with a Chargers discussion. They actually talked a little baseball. What, you might wonder? San Diego's loss last night to Chicago? The race for second best record in the NL? The now impossible to predict outcome in both Wild Card races?

No. They talked about Channel 4 and the San Diego Padres broadcast rights.

Well, OK, that is a bit of a local story. As you probably know, Cox Communications and Channel 4 will not be carrying Padres games in 2012. Nor formal announcement has yet been made, but Scott rightly called it the 'worst kept secret in San Diego'. Earlier this year Channel 4 employees were notified they would likely not be brought back for 2012.

On the one hand I agree with the XX 1090 morning talent. It is sad to see Channel 4 lose the Padres. They have done a professional job in presenting the Padres; they are not losing the contract due to a lack of competence. Besides, who wishes job loss on anyone? On the other hand, this turn of events is ultimately not solely the Padres fault; this decision today is the product of a business decision Cox made years ago, to not allow Padres games to be broadcast locally on anything but cable.

One of the biggest problems the San Diego Padres face in this market is how to build brand loyalty. This team has had some success, but over their entire history they have usually been a bad team playing bad baseball. Obviously brand loyalty starts there. It has been said on multiple occasions San Diego is restricted by who their local fan base can be, hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean to the West, the Mojave Desert to the East, Mexico to the South, and Los Angeles Baseball to the North. Complicating that, their three closest rivals (in terms of Geography) have all won a World Series; two of them have won one this millenium. The other, the Dodgers, has been an institution in Southern California for better than 50 years, with multiple World Series titles, players making multiple appearances on TV, Vin Scully, and Fernandomania.

Having an artifical constraint like the broadcast rights has made the brand loyalty-building that much tougher, specifically hamstringing efforts in the San Diego Metro/San Diego County area. The Padres could not reach all the households they should be able to reach based on a business decision Cox made. I do not know and would be interested to find out if that exclusivity was written into the broadcast rights contract signed by Cox and the Padres. I suspect it was, which would explain why the Padres could not influence Cox to amend their stance. Once it was raised as an issue Cox should have seen this coming.

Of course it's moot now. Fox will get the Padres for the next 15-20 years; they are building a channel specifically to cover the Padres; they will allow it to be received via cable or satellite.

I hope Cox enjoyed their short term gains and exclusive rights to the Padres. In the name of that short-term gain they slit their own throat. Whether or not the station continues to exist after this season remains to be seen. When Fox San Diego stands up, it would be nice to see many familiar faces from the past few years doing Padre broadcasts again.

Game Reflections - #157 vs Dodgers

2011-09-24T07:30:00.000-07:00

Yeah a little behind on the GM series. We'll get back to that. Tonight I sat through a 2 hour 43 minute 2-0 game. There should be a law against games in which 8 runners are stranded and 2 runs scored cannot last more than 2 hours 15 minutes.

Anyway, some random thoughts.

- Why in the world did Anthony Rizzo not start this game? Rizzo has actually had the most success against lefthanded starters (.194 batting average). Yeah that's still below the Mendoza Line, but still. One would think a guy with his long swing would match up pretty well against a guy who throws a lot of junk. Besides, Rizzo has demonstrated better plate discipline than Alberto Gonzalez has this season.

- Gonzalez looked absolutely flummoxed up there against Ted Lilly. After he looked at two curve balls and swung at a pitch in the dirt for strike 3 in the second inning, all I could think of was Pedro Cerrano. He popped to first and tapped out weakly to Lilly in his other 2 ABs versus the Dodger lefty.

- Dodgers had 2 extra base hits. Both of them came around to score. Padres were oh-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

- Did you know Matt Kemp has a shot at the triple crown? I didn't. After his 426' HR to the deepest part of Petco, he is tied for the league lead in HR, leads the league in RBI, and trails Ryan Braun/Jose Reyes in AVG by .002. Sabermetrics has taken a lot of the luster out of 2/3 of those statistics, but if he does something no NL hitter has done in 74 years? That's pretty special.

- Wade LeBlanc dominated as he has not dominated since pitching against the Phillies way back in May. He struck out 10, including the side looking in the seventh following Kemp's HR. The high strikeout total may have been helped by all the AAA hitters in the Dodger lineup...

- Three of the first 5 Dodger hitters tried to bunt. Only one of those was a sacrifice attempt to move a runner over. Weird.

- I didn't see the balk play clearly, but I will say it is unusual in my experience for the home plate umpire to call a balk, unless it is because the pitcher flinched, i.e., started then stopped his windup. LeBlanc didn't flinch. Neither the second nor first base umpires thought it was a balk, and first base umpire Todd Tichenor had the best angle.

- Speaking of Angel Hernandez, Friday's home plate umpire, his strike zone was ridiculous and inconsistent. It looked to me some of his inconsistency on outside pitches derived directly from how the catcher caught the ball. If the catcher set up off the outside corner and the pitcher hit his glove, even if it was a ball, they generally got the strike call. If the catcher set up somewhere else and the pitch missed the target (like for example, he sets up inside and the pitch is outside so he has to reach across to catch it), even if the pitch was a strike Hernandez called it a ball.

Fully 24 of the 54 total outs were by strikeout. That's 45% of all the outs in this game. Of those, a third were looking. Ted Lilly strikes out about 7 hitters per 9 innings. He did that tonight in 6 and 1/3.Wade LeBlanc strikes out about 5 per 9. Tonight he struck out 10 in 7. Methinks an inconsistent strike zone had a lot to do with that.

- Aaron Cunningham made a bad baserunning play with one out in the seventh, trying to advance to third on a ground ball to third. Ultimately it didn't matter - Jeremy Hermida walked, so the Padres had runners on first and second with two out anyway - but it was still a bonehead play. He should have waited until Dodger 3B Justin Sellers went to first before taking off for third.

Padres need to win all their remaining games to avoid losing 90 this season. No odds will be given on that happening.

Well, What WOULD You Do?

2011-09-20T05:59:00.000-07:00

During one of my recent drives home, the Coach John Kentera started asking the audience, "What would you do if you were the Padres GM?", hoping to engender discussion.

State laws and my lack of a head set on that particular afternoon prevented a call-in, but as Dispicable Me lead 'villian' Gru might say, LIGHT .... BULB!

This Padres club will lose 90 games and is headed for the long off-season. Why not talk about how to improve next year's team? Over the next several posts, I'll explore that.

To set the battlespace for debate, let's look at Padre contractural obligations for 2012. It's a pretty short list. Currently the Padres have only two players under contract for next year: Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett. They will each make $5.5M in 2012. Now naturally the rest of the roster is not nearly that simple.

San Diego holds a club option for Chad Qualls ($6M), and a mutual option for 2012 with Brad Hawpe ($6M) and Aaron Harang ($5M). There's no way Hawpe returns for 2012. GM Jed Hoyer will decline the option, pay the $1M buyout, and cut his losses. Not only has Hawpe been hurt most of the year, but San Diego has a lot of guys who can play first. Qualls might return - he's pitched fairly well out of the Padres bullpen - but I wonder if the club will pick up his $6M. Can you imagine a world where a middle reliever is the highest paid player on the roster? That could happen if Qualls returns. Aaron Harang might return as well, and would be a bargain for $5M. Harang has pitched very well this year.

The big Free Agent question San Diego has is Heath Bell. Only Heath Bell has an inkling on how that will play out. The Padres would be crazy not to offer him arbitration, unless they know he'll accept arbitration, in which case they'd be crazy to offer him arbitration. What to do, what to do....

Jeremy Hermida will also be a free agent at the end of the year (5 years service time) but his contract demands won't be very high given the amount of time he's spent in the minor leagues lately. San Diego can manage that if they decide to retain him. The rest of the roster is either arbitration eligible or not quite ready for arbitration.

The Arbitration Eligibles:

Pat Neshek (Year 3)
Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Chris Denorfia, Alberto Gonzalez (Year 2)
Clayton Richard, Luke Gregerson, Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Rob Johnson, Ernesto Frieri, Jeff Fulchino (Year 1)

The not-yet eligibles:

Mat Latos, Cameron Maybin, Kyle Blanks, Cory Luebke, Wade LeBlanc, Anthony Bass, Josh Spence, Andrew Carpenter, Brad Brach, Aaron Cunningham, James Darnell, Logan Forsythe, Andy Parrino, Evan Scribner, Blake Tekotte.

There has been a lot of ink spilled about the size of the Padres payroll, whether or not it will start with a 3, 4, or 5. With the players they have under contract, San Diego could certainly field a team whose payroll still sits in the mid-to-upper 40s. Which would pretty much guarantee another season groping for runs.

It is a cost-effective roster at the moment. But what this team really, REALLY needs is a big bat in the lineup. We'll explore that and other questions over the next several days.

Game Reflections - #152 vs Diamondbacks

2011-09-17T23:00:00.000-07:00

Tonight's game took 2:31, and 3 of the 4 runs scored were via solo home run. Not a whole lot to talk about, but I have some thoughts on the limited action.

- Had a chance to talk with David Garcia before the game. Well actually Mr. Garcia talked and I listened. His baseball reference page talks about his 6-year managerial career, and that is only the tip of the iceberg. He's been in the game for over 70 years, the vast majority of which spent as a scout. I wish I had more than 25 minutes with him.

- Wonder why Josh Collmenter has such an awkward motion? He learned to throw an ax before throwing a baseball. Rumor has it he was a Michigan state champion in ax-throwing.

- Andy Parrino walks to the plate to Iron Man. I like to think it's the Ozzy Osbourne version. I do believe I'm an Andy Parrino fan.

- Orlando Hudson suffers from a lot of mental lapses. Apparently last night he lost the handle on the ball while attempting to throw Justin Upton out at first, then lay on the ground while the ball rolled away from him. Upton ended up at second, gifted a double. Earlier in the year he did the same thing after Troy Tulowitzki's low line drive glanced off his glove and rolled away. Tonight it appeared he missed a hit-and-run sign and hung Nick Hundley out to dry - caught stealing 2-6-3. He's a former All-Star in the 152nd game of the season - why does this stuff happen? Hudson did homer later in the at-bat to give the Padres the lead.

- Starter Wade LeBlanc had an odd line - 103 pitches thrown, 53 strikes. He got hit hard in the first inning, which is a trend. He's allowed 8 first inning earned runs this season, and 16 ER to teams the first time through the order (of 37 total allowed). On this night, however, LeBlanc gutted through 6 innings, allowing only that first inning home run to Aaron Hill.

- Odd line of the night. Chris Young of Arizona saw 14 pitches from 3 different pitchers. One strike. And he just missed that strike, hitting a 'home run in a silo' off Gregerson that went as a pop-up to short. I can't remember the last time I saw a hitter walk 3 times in a game on 12 pitches.

- At one point, there was a Qualls and a Ziegler pitching against each other. When was the last time the pitching matchup was a guy who's last name started with a 'Q' facing a guy who's last name started with a 'Z'?

- Four caught stealings in the game, although one was of the picked-off-caught-stealing variety.

- Finally the double play Anthony Rizzo started to end the fifth. He made a nice play on the ground ball from Parra as it reached the bag, but his throw was sublime. He threw it so it pulled Jason Bartlett's glove to the feet of John McDonald, who was running from first to second on the play. If he doesn't throw that ball that way McDonald is likely safe. Superb defensive play.

San Diego goes for its first series sweep since taking four from Florida almost a month ago.

Game Reflections - #141 vs Giants

2011-09-06T07:39:00.000-07:00

Another game, another 10+ strikeout day for a Giant pitcher. This game was closer, and not as close, as the 7-2 final would suggest. Hard to believe, but true.

- Pablo Sandoval hit the longest HR I've seen at Petco this year with 2 out in the first - 436' to the beach in deep RC. Two innings later he followed up with a moonshot to RF. It's worth wondering what has happened to Tim Stauffer. In his last 31 innings he's been torched, including 12 HR allowed. His 173 2/3 IP this season is more than double the most innings he'd ever thrown at the major league level. Fatigue maybe?

- Stauffer did hang on to finish six innings. I was mildly surprised Bud Black didn't pinch hit for him in the fourth with Chris Denorfia at third and two out. At that point the score was 4-1. Faced with a similar decision on Saturday afternoon Black also chose to stay with Cory Luebke. At least Stauffer went out and pitched two more effective innings; Luebke got lit up in the fifth inning Saturday and was removed.

- Welcome Back Chris Denorfia. The first three balls he hit were hammered, including his double to deep CF in the fourth which missed being a HR by about 5 feet. However, when he struck out against Santiago Casilla in the ninth it meant every Padre hitter struck out at least once on the afternoon. And that does include the lone pinch hitter (Aaron Cunningham).

- Maybe it's me, but it seems every time Cunningham hits he either strikes out or pops up.

- The 4-1 score held through the seventh, which is why I said at the top the game seemed closer than it was. Giant starter Madison Bumgarner retired 12 in a row after Denorfia's double in the fourth, broken by Bartlett's soft single to CF in the eighth, which is why I said at the top the game seemed not as close as it was.

- The top of the eighth is one of the more surreal innings of the year. Newly acquired reliever Jeff Fulchino walked Andres Torres on 5 pitches. Torres stole second, Jeff Keppinger signed softly to center, Fulchino's 1-0 pitch to Sandoval found the backstop sending Keppinger to second. Sandoval was walked intentionally. After getting Darren Ford to hit into a force out (Torres retired 4-2), Cody Ross hit the next pitch into the LF corner for a 2-run double. Cue the RAIN, and Black taking Fulchino out. Josh Spence walks Brandon Belt; Brad Brach walks Mark Derosa, forcing in a run; the second runner is retired at the plate on Chris Stewart's ground ball to third; and Bumgarner strikes out looking to end the inning.

So four walks (one intentional), three pitching changes (including Fulchino relieving Andrew Carpenter to start the inning), two runners retired at the plate, and a rain squall. Surreal. It sounds better if you sing it to 'A Partridge in a Pear Tree'.

Yesterday's game was the 10th time this season a starting pitcher has rung up at least 10 Padres in a game. It's the second time a Giant has done it; it's the second time said Giant has struck out 13. Tim Lincecum fanned 13 on April 6, the fifth game of the year; San Diego was 3-1 going into that game. Seems like a very long time ago.

Eric Surkamp will make his second career start tonight against Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc has only faced the Giants once at Petco; he won that night.

It would have helped if I had looked at my notes before I finalized this post. Some other things from yesterday's game that I meant to mention:

- Belt rolled a single to RF in the second, sending Ross to third. Jesus Guzman didn't even flinch as the ball went through the infield. It is entirely possible he had no play on the ball - it was to his right, he was holding Ross at first - however the ball rolled closer to him than it did to Hudson, who ran a long way and couldn't get it. I've played a little 1B in my time; I was surprised Guzman didn't move at all.

- Denorfia might have had a play on Ross at the plate in the third inning, but the ball slipped out of his grasp on the exchange from glove to hand so that went by the boards. He then had a play on Brandon Crawford at first (Crawford had taken a wide turn), but his throw to Hudson (who alertly came over to cover first) was a bit behind him and he couldn't get back to tag Crawford in time. Tough play.

- Torres should have scored on Fulchino's wild pitch in the eighth. The ball ended up kicking all the way to the camera well next to the Padres dugout. No idea what Torres was thinking on that play.

- I think Kyle Blanks got an off-speed pitch on a 2-0 count in the first inning, but it was middle-out on the plate and he fouled it straight back off the end of the bat. He might have been off-balance because he was expecting a fastball, but it really looked like he was trying to pull it. I said it before but it bears repeating - Blanks desperately needs to learn to take that outside pitch the other way and not try to pull everything. I can't understand why any pitcher would ever pitch him inside since he can't handle the outside pitch.

- Jason Bartlett almost lined into an other 5-3 DP in the third inning. It would have been the second time in 3 days that had happened to him, but this time the baserunner (Cameron Maybin) managed to get back. Talk about hitting in tough luck. Maybin inadvertently caught Aubrey Huff's glove hand under his body as he dove back in; Huff came up in obvious pain and eventually left the game because of it.

- Bumgarner set a career high for strikeouts yesterday.

Game Reflections - #139 vs Rockies

2011-09-04T09:12:00.000-07:00

The Padres will drive you crazy sometimes...

Last night's game was a bit surreal. Four foul outs, including a rarely foul popout/double play when Ryan Spilborghs broke for the plate and was cut down by Orlando Hudson. One of the fastest men in the NL picked off second . . . on a throw down from Nick Hundley. A 1-6-4 force out at second. And so on.

Part of it was not so surreal, as the Padres dropped their ninth straight.

I was really looking forward to seeing Cory Luebke pitch again. The last game I attended that he started, he retired the first 11 hitters he saw. Last night's game was aptly summed up on Twitter by Geoff Young of Ducksnorts:

Great second inning surrounded by a whole lotta batting practice.

On to the thoughts.

- Lubeke must have thought he was in a shooting gallery. On three separate instances a hard shot went right through the box, started by Todd Helton on his line drive single in the first. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Dexter Fowler also buzzed the tower, as it were. I would think that unsettles a pitcher. After Helton's near miss Luebke retired the next 7 hitters he saw.

- It could have been eight, but Hudson had a sinking line drive off Troy Tulowitzki's bat glance off his glove and roll away. O-Dog then watched it roll into short RF. Tulo, hustling all the way, made it to second standing. Two thoughts here - (a) why did O-Dog buy a ticket after missing the play, and (b) what the heck was Jason Bartlett doing not covering second base?

- Luebke threw 37 pitches in the first inning. Not to be outdone, Rockies starter Alex White threw 28. The first inning took almost 40 minutes to play.

- Padres got the leadoff hitter on in the first, third, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth innings. In the third, sixth, and seventh he didn't get to second. In the eighth he did thanks to a 2-out walk, but was still stranded.

- San Diego showed no interest in trying to move the runner up by bunting in the seventh or eighth innings. I don't count the half-hearted bunt attempt by Hudson that he fouled back over the screen. Stuck in an eight-game losing streak, I would have expected to find Bud Black willing to pull out all the stops in an attempt to break the streak.

- Of course, if Kouzmanoff does not make a tremendous play on Jason Bartlett's line shot in the seventh the game might have ended differently. Kouz dove to his left to snare the drive, then doubled Will Venable off first.

It's been said elsewhere but will be said again here. San Diego lost 10 straight last year from 26 August to 5 September. The current streak started 24 August. Let us hope long losing streaks in late August don't become the norm.

Padres send Mat Latos to the hill today against Padre Killer Aaron Cook.

2012 Frick Award Fan Ballot

2011-08-30T14:38:00.000-07:00

The Ford Frick Award is presented annually for excellence in baseball broadcasting by the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. This year, for the ninth consecutive year, fans have a chance to determine 3 of the 10 names that will be on the final ballot.

I did not know the fans had a voice in the nominee selection process for the Ford Frick Award. I suspect neither did you.

From the press release:

The process will allow fans to cast votes at the Hall of Fame's Facebook page, www.facebook.com/baseballhall . . . Voting runs from September 1 through September 30, and fans can cast votes once per day through September for their favorite broadcaster.

A note on eligibility - Eligible candidates must have a minimum of 10 years of continuous major league broadcast service with a ball club, network, or a combination of the two.

Results will be announced October 5 when the final ballot is also published. Committee to determine the awardee includes all the living Frick Award winners, plus Bob Costas, Barry Horn (Dallas Morning News), Stan Isaacs (formerly of New York Newsday), Ted Patterson, and Curt Smith (historians). The winner will be announced December 6 during the winter meetings.

So who's on the ballot? Every team has 2 nominees. The three SOCAL teams are represented by:

San Diego - Ted Leitner, Eduardo Ortega
LAA of Anaheim - Dick Enberg, Jose Mota
LA Dodgers - Rick Monday, Ross Porter

I've not had occasion to listen to Mr. Ortega, as he does the Spanish language broadcast of Padres games, so I'll have to defer to those who have heard him call a game. Does Ted Leitner deserve your support? Absolutely. Ted's been an integral part of summer baseball in San Diego for over 30 years, but that's not why we should vote for him. We should vote for him because he does a superb job calling a game and we enjoy listening to him. You don't stay in one town for 30 years without connecting with your audience on a deep personal level.

If I'm allowed more than one vote per day, I'm picking Ross Porter, who called Dodger games when I was a kid.

I'll leave the Dick Enberg discussion to Avenging Jack Murphy.

The rest of the names on the ballot:

AZ - Greg Schulte, Daron Sutton
ATL - Skip Caray, Pete Van Wieren (both great choices, BTW)
BAL - Joe Angel, Jim Hunter
BOS - Joe Castiglione, Jerry Remy
CHN - Pat Hughes, Ron Santo (Santo is sure to get a lot of votes)
CHA - Ed Farmer, Ken Harrelson
CIN - Waite Hoyt, Joe Nuxhall
CLE - Mike Hegan, Herb Score
COL - Jack Corrigan, Wayne Hagin
DET - George Kell, Jim Price
FLA - Tommy Hutton, Rick Waltz
HOU - Bill Brown, Larry Dierker
KC - Ryan Lefebrve, Paul Splittorff
MIL - Merle Harmon, Bill Schroeder
MIN - Dick Bremer, John Gordon
NYM - Gary Cohen, Ralph Kiner (big fan of Kinerisms back in his WWOR days)
NYA - Michael Kay, John Sterling
OAK - Ray Fosse, Bill King
PHI - Richie Ashburn, Chris Wheeler
PIT - Steve Blass, Lanny Frattare
SF - Mike Krukow, Duane Kuiper
SEA - Ron Fairly, Rick Rizzs
STL - Al Hrabosky, Mike Shannon (Shannon's another favorite of mine)
TB - Todd Kalas, Dewayne Staats
TEX - Mark Holtz, Eric Nadel
TOR - Tom Cheek, Jerry Howarth
WAS - Bob Carpenter, Charlie Slowes
AT-LARGE - Thom Brennaman, Joe Buck, Ken Coleman, Jacques Doucet, Ernie Johnson Sr, Ned Martin, Buck Martinez, Tim McCarver, Al Michaels, Joe Morgan, Amaury Pi-Gonzalez, Phil Rizzuto, John Rooney, Steve Stone, Gary Thorne

Voting starts 0700 our time 1 Sept and concludes 1400 our time 30 Sept. Vote Early, Vote Often, VOTE FOR TED!

Press Release data forwarded courtesy San Diego Padres media relations department

Indian Summer

2011-08-30T08:57:00.000-07:00

Last Wednesday the Padres were 10 games under .500, on their longest winning streak of the season, and making a push to get into third place. No really - we were. Five games later the Padres have fallen back into the cellar and scored only 4 runs total.

What happened? Looks like an Indian Summer to me. After sending Ryan Ludwick to Pittsburgh, the Padres ripped off wins in 14 of their next 22 games, averaging 5.8 runs per game. Yes that average is padded somewhat by 3 games in which they scored 13+ runs. However, it was a marked upswing in offensive prowess from the season's first half, and its 15 shutouts, and its 30 other games scoring 2 runs or less. IUn 41% of their games played through 31 July, they didn't score 3 runs.

Then, three weeks of offensive gluttony. I briefly entertained hope they would claw their way back to .500 by the end of the season. Heck, going into the Tim Lincecum start last Wednesday they were within 8 games of second place.

So much for that.

In hindsight I guess we should have seen this coming. The Padres can't beat Lincecum (8-4 lifetime vs San Diego), they can't beat Clayton Kershaw (6-3 lifetime), and they don't win in Arizona (80-37 all time vs Padres in the desert).

Today Tim Stauffer, recently bitten hard by the HR bug, will take on Hiroki Kuroda. The Padres have had success against Kuroda in LA, so perhaps their bats will awaken tonight.

Luebke 2011 vs Latos 2010

2011-08-26T10:23:00.000-07:00

In a 2010 season full of Padres feel-good stories, the biggest was the emergence of Mat Latos. Latos got tons of national notoriety as the face of those over-achieving Padres, and with good reason - he was flat-out filthy over the summer.

2011 has been nowhere as much fun for the Padres, but there have been feel-good stories anyway. Jesus Guzman's resurrection. Aaron Harang's comeback. Cameron Maybin's maturation. And another young arm has emerged in the Padre rotation - Cory Luebke. Luebke has not gotten the media attention Latos did last year, but he's been pretty darn good too.

I took a look at Luebke's starts in 2011 and compared them to what I consider as Latos' best stretch in 2010, 22 June to 27 August. Each comprises 11 starts and 1090 pitches (actually Luebke has thrown 1092 pitches in his 11 2011 starts). As you might expect, Latos' numbers are better, but look at how well Luebke measures up.

Latos: 70.2 IP, 79K, 21BB, 1.27 ERA, .188/.249/.270, 0.9829 WHIP, .254 BABIP
Luebke: 66.1 IP, 69K, 14BB, 2.71 ERA, .201/.248/.335, 0.9682 WHIP, .251 BABIP

So why no hosannahs for Luebke? Likely because the Padres are currently 11 games under .500 at the moment, and Luebke spent most of the first 3 months of 2011 coming out of the bullpen. Also, I suspect that in spite of the inroads advanced statistical metrics have made in recent years, people were/are still seduced by won/loss record. Latos entered last September 14-5 and a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Luebke is currently 5-6, 4-4 as a starter, and no one is talking about him as a Cy Young candidate.

He is going to be, however.

Looking for an answer to Lincecum and Cain? You've found it in Latos and Luebke. The Padres have two potential aces in their rotation right now, and neither is 27 yet.

The Waiver Process Explained (related - Heath Bell not going anywhere)

2011-08-25T08:21:00.000-07:00

Tuesday it was reported Heath Bell had been placed on waivers by the Padres. Yesterday it was leaked the Giants had claimed him. This has led to all sorts of consternation in Padre-land about why San Diego would allow Bell to join the hated Giants. It's a tempest in a teapot. Allow me to try and explain the waiver process post-trade deadline for you, gentle reader.

First, the trade deadline is a misnomer. The only thing 31 July represents is the last day a team can trade a player away without having to subject him to the waiver process. Teams do still make trades after 31 July. It is harder to do, but it happens. So to expect no more trades in a baseball season starting 1 August is kind of silly.

Second, it is standard practice for clubs to put their players on waivers. In many years, WHOLE TEAMS are placed on waivers. Does this mean a fire sale is in the offing? No, it means the GM is keeping his options open. He can't trade someone away unless he clears waivers. It also gives him some intel on who is interested in guys on his roster (a tactically savvy move, in my opinion).

So Heath Bell being placed on waivers is not at all unusual. I'll bet he was not the only Padre placed on waivers; he's perhaps the most interesting because most folks in the industry expected him to be traded away before the deadline.

Now he's on waivers. What's that mean? A couple of things. Any team can put a claim in for him, but the priority of who gets the claim is in reverse order of record. So the Houston Astros would have the highest priority if they wanted Bell, then Baltimore, then the Royals, and so on. Only one team will be awarded the waiver claim, and if there's no deal struck, the next team in the list does not get a second chance to pick the player up.

In Bell's case, the Giants were the worst record team to make a claim on him, which is why reports have stated the Giants claimed Heath Bell on waivers.

Once a team is awarded a claim, ~~three~~ two things can happen. The two teams have 48 hours to negotiate a trade. It should be noted, if the claiming team offers a player on their 40-man roster in exchange for the claimed player THAT player has to clear waivers too (I did not know this until Jed Hoyer's interview with Darren Smith yesterday afternoon). The team placing the player on waivers can tell the claiming team, 'He's yours. Enjoy.' Think Randy Myers in 1998. ~~Last, the team placing the player on waivers can pull him back and say, 'Nah, we've changed our mind.'~~ Ed note: This last course of action is no longer possible. All players claimed on waivers remain there until the 48 hour window has closed.

Assuming the Padres would want a player on the Giants 40-man roster, that guy would either have to have already cleared waivers, or have been put on waivers at roughly the same time as Bell in order to make a trade work. Or, the Padres would have to accept a lesser player, a low minor-leaguer, a guy not protected on the 40-man roster - and the chances of them trading Heath Bell for a low level prospect are virtually nil.

Everybody got that? No? Let's sum up:

- Placing players on waivers post-trade deadline is standard operating procedure in baseball;
- Claiming a player placed on waivers is no guarantee that player will join the claiming team;
- Heath Bell is not going anywhere.

Comments welcome.

Thoughts on Trevor Time - Epilogue

2011-08-24T12:00:00.000-07:00

I said Sunday night? I guess I should have said Wednesday morning. This is the life I lead.

Anticipating a sellout, I decided to get to Petco Park real early on Sunday. I ended up pulling into a parking spot around 1115. The streets were full of fans at a level I normally see 30 minutes before game time, so there's that; but I was surprised to learn later the game was not a sellout (fairly obvious from looking around during the ceremony, confirmed with the announced crowd of 40,065).

I know it's late August, and I know the Padres are 10 games under (after winning last night), and the Chargers had a pre-season game Sunday night at Dallas. If Trevor Hoffman is really the second-most beloved Padre ever as Gaslamp Ball asserts (and I believe), one would think the game would have been a sellout. Philosophically that fact speaks volumes about the amount of work this organization still has to do to connect with a metropolitan area of 3 million.

The ceremony started with Beautiful Day by U2. Great choice. Love that song, and the weather Sunday was Chamber-of-Commerce good (71 and mostly sunny). Ted Leitner strode to the microphone as the emcee, and there was no better choice to run this ceremony. None. Leitner has his faults, but he is very, VERY good as a public speaker and did an outstanding job on this afternoon.

There was discussion during the game (mostly led by Leitner) about why Hoffman is 'the greatest closer in the history of major league baseball'. It centered on the saves record. Hoffman is the only man with 600 saves, finishing at 601. The problem with counting statistics is they will eventually be broken. On this very day, Mariano Rivera recorded save #592, meaning he will break Hoffman's record before this season is over. I'd rather use this one - Hoffman is the only man to save 40 games or more 9 times in his career (Rivera has done it seven times). As opposed to a longevity stat, it's a sustained superior performance one.

The proximity of Rivera to breaking Hoffman's record likely drove doing the ceremony now vice 5 years from now when Hoffman (hopefully) is a first ballot HoF. Don't underestimate the power of having a public ceremony where the phrase 'best of all time' can be used without argument. Hoffman deserved to have his number retired period - the 'worlds greatest closer' is just a bonus - but there was no reason to rush to do this ceremony. I'm certainly not saying the Padres shouldn't have retired his number this year, but I do think they wanted to honor him while he was still top dog in terms of total saves, which will not be true after the 2011 season.

Twice now this season Trevor Hoffman has come out of the bullpen to Hell's Bells - Opening Day, and Sunday. I've gotten goosebumps watching it each time. The stadium exploded in cheering as the music started and Trevor walked onto the field. The Padres etched 'TREVOR TIME' on the warning track in dead center during the lead-up to this ceremony, Hoffman came out with his entire family holding hands. Cool moment.

If Greg Hoffman says Trevor wore 51 because he couldn't have 15 (Bruce Bochy had it) when he became a Padre I believe him. That said, Kurt Stilwell wore #15 when Trevor was traded to San Diego. Stillwell was sent to the California Angels on 26 July. Now Bruce Bochy was on that staff, so it may be Bochy took 15 as soon as Stillwell left the team. Here's something interesting - Baseball Reference indicates Hoffman wore 51 as a Marlin. I wonder if Hoffy reversed his number because he shifted from shortstop to the mound.

21 August 11 will forever be known as Trevor Hoffman Day. Wouldn't it be cool to have a day named after you?

I did hear a small 'boo' when Jeff Moorad's name was read by Leitner (thanking him for honoring Hoffman). Understandable, but not needed on this day. There are plenty of other forums to express dismay at the Padres $40 million dollar roster cap.

I did not know Hoffman played college ball with JT Snow.

Jerry Coleman got one of the 3 biggest ovations during the 'parade of well-wishers'. And the Colonel can still run! I hope I'm that agile when I'm in my 80s. Heck I hope I'm still vertical when I'm 80.

Second of three big ovations for Steve Finley. Finley should run a class on how to leave an organization. I still remember the full-page ad he took out in the SDUT thanking the fans for their support when he left for Arizona following the 1998 season. Of course, it doesn't hurt that he was one heck of a CF while here (2 Gold Gloves and an All Star appearance; he also finished in the Top 10 of 1996 MVP voting, something else I'd forgotten). I had season tickets in 1997* and can still see him chasing fly balls down in my mind's eye.

*yeah I know - Division Champs in 1996, NL Champs in 1998, I had season tix in 1997. My timing always sucks.

Other big cheers came in for Ryan Klesko, Rickey Henderson (and his ridiculous suit that only Rickey could pull off), and Rollie Fingers.

Love that Caminiti's wife was included, as were Mike Darr's widow and Rob Beck's widow. One of several wet eye moments for me.

Jake Peavy on the big screen brought a surprised cheer, as did Bruce Bochy's comments, and Brian Johnson of AC/DC's tribute was all kinds of awesome.

The four already honored players (Steve Garvey, Randy Jones, Dave Winfield, and Tony Gwynn, who got the last big ovation) came in through the CF fence to the strains of music from Field of Dreams. It got me thinking - what other franchise can say all those honored with a retired number are still alive? Obviously I'm not including Jackie Robinson because he never played for the Padres. Turns out, there are several - Arizona, Milwaukee Brewers, and Montreal/Washington in the National League; and Baltimore and Toronto in the American League.

More U2 when Hoffman's #51 was unveiled, this time Pride.

Words cannot express how great that 1958 Cadillac looked in the mid-afternoon sun on Sunday. What a beautiful car.

It's interesting how connected Hoffman and current Padres closer Heath Bell are beyond sharing the same role on the ballclub. Bell reprises the Hell's Bells by having a bell toll at the beginning of his entrance music (which leads into a quote from the movie 300). Both are sons of USMC veterans, Hoffman's father having fought at Iwo Jima and Bell's father having served 3 years in the Corps.

And like many others said, having a video clip of Trevor's father Ed Hoffman singing the national anthem was a fantastic personal touch. The man could sing, too.

I attended Randy Jones' number retirement ceremony back in 1997, and Tony Gwynn's in 2001. Of those three, this one stands out. The San Diego Padres went out of their way to make Sunday special, and succeeded. It was a pleasure to attend and share in the festivities with the Hoffman family.

Game Reflections - #129 vs Marlins

2011-08-21T17:27:00.000-07:00

What a wild ending. Some thoughts while waiting for the parking lot to clear out, and the Hoffman's take pictures on the field:

- Will Venable has now hit more leadoff HR's than his dad did (3-2). It was also the first Padre leadoff HR since the last time he did it - against the Marlins.

- After Blanks' double made it 3-0 it looked like another rout was on. Except the Padres got only 3 hits over the next 7 1/3 innings. In the meantime the Marlins clawed back into it.

- Mike Stanton is the best young OF hitter in the NL East. You can keep Jason Heyward. Stanton was a half-inch lower on the barrell and a broken bat away from home runs in his first 3 at bats. His broken bat shot with one on and 2 out in the sixth drove Blanks to the wall.

- Luebke has a perfect game going until Stanton's shot in the fourth.

- Gaby Sanchez is lucky he didn't get run in the fifth. He thought the 3-1 pitch was ball four (called strike two) and took his time getting back in. Then he though the next pitch was ball four (called strike three) and left the bat where he dropped it. Some verbal jawing with Dan Bellino ensued. Lucky.

- Qualls threw an effective seventh. Gregerson's two wild pitches led to a cheap run for Florida in the eighth. No one in the building expected Cameron to turn a Heath Bell pitch around for a long HR to tie it.

- Nick Hundley. Triples machine. He missed winning it with a HR by about 3 feet. Assisting him to third was a favorable carom off the fence and away from Cameron c

- Jack McKeon's strategy after the triple was questionable at best. I understand why he did it, but consider. He walked a .227 hitter who was 0-3 (Forsythe) and a guy in Gonzalez who hadn't hit yet today, to get to Venable, wh is hot and had already homered in the game. And his best reliever (Nunez) never entered the game. Just bad strategy, and not only because Venable hit the second Mike Dunn pitch over Stanton in right to win the game.

I'm sure the Marlins won't miss San Diego. That's a season sweep and nine straight the Padres have taken from Florida.

I attended Trevor Hoffman's retirement ceremony, and will have more on that later tonight.

Padres head north to play the slumping Giants Tuesday.

Game Reflections - #127 vs Marlins

2011-08-19T23:35:00.000-07:00

See? CLEARLY safe. (Kent C. Horner/Getty Images)

Managed to get out of the parking lot before the fireworks ended. Victory. Some thoughts on tonights game, composed while Larry Vannover reviews the tape and tries to justify calling LeBlanc out at home...

- It wasn't a bobblehead give away - the Padres were selling Tony Hawk dolls for $10. Unexpected this was, and unfortunate.

- Marlins changed their lineup last minute, taking Mike Stanton out and juggling pretty much everyone else. Apparently Stanton jammed his left big toe running into the RF scoreboard during last night's game (he was chasing a fly ball). He went through all the pre-game stuff before being scratched.

- The Padres played 'Fight for Your Right (To Party)' by the Beastie Boys while waiting for San Diego to take the field. They played a version that removes the 'living at home is such a drag/now your mom took away your best porno mag' lyric. Uh, fellas? That song is 25 years old. EVERYONE in the ballpark has heard it by now. Who's sensitive ears are you going to protect?

- LeBlanc was safe.

- Looked like Maybin might have been safe on his stolen base attempt in the first inning. Florida pitched out, but it appeared he got his hand in while SS Emilio Bonifacio tagged him on the chest. Most of the time, if the ball beats you you're out. On that play at least 2B umpire Dan Bellino can be excused since Maybin's own body blocked him from judging when the tag was applied relative to when Maybin hit the bag.

- Kyle Blanks HR probably traveled 700' in the air. From my vantage point it sure looked like the ball's apex was above the 'PETCO PARK' sign on top of the LF scoreboard. What a moon shot. 393' was the official distance. No way, man, no way. That swing completely changed the game.

- Two times through the Marlin lineup, and Bonifacio had not swung at a pitch (seen 9, called out on strikes and walked on 4 pitches). Alfredo Amezaga, however, the emergency LF starter due to Stanton's scratch, had swung at all 6 pitches he'd seen (4 foul, fly to CF, pop to 2B). I thought that was quite funny.

- Pitcher Chris Volstad ripped his double up the LF/CF gap. Mike Cameron, who's bat did indeed look slow, can still run (in fact I was surprised with how short a lead he took after singling in the fourth). He scored without a play.

- LeBlanc is still safe. What a ridiculous call. He looked safe at normal speed, and was CLEARLY safe on the replay. How can you blow that call? It's your only job, Larry Vannover - to get the call right. Take your time, we'll wait. At least we now know how to wake up the Padre crowd. They let Vannover have it the rest of that inning, and only quit really riding him after the sixth inning ended.

- Bonifacio made O-Dog dive into the dirt while completing a double play to end the sixth. Threw it low. In repsonse, Hudson practically undressed Home Run Ed in the eighth with a hard shot up the middle. Yes I realize neither of these were intentional.

- The seventh inning saw something you rarely see - a pitching change in the middle of an at bat. Jack McKeon pulled Chris Hatcher and replaced him with Ryan Webb while the count was 2-0 on Alberto Gonzalez. In case you are wondering (and I was), had Webb walked Gonzalez that walk would have been charged to Hatcher. Any other result was to be charged to Webb. Gonzo reached on a FC.

- In the eighth, McKeon burned two pinch hitters on the same at bat, when Brett Hayes was announced then replaced by Dwayne Wise after Black pulled Spence in favor of Gregerson. Hayes is the back-up catcher. I have no idea what the Marlins would have done had John Buck then gotten hurt (the speculation was Gaby Sanchez would have caught). It also explains why Buck was left in to run in the ninth after his leadoff walk - there was no way they could run for him.

- Blanks made a nice running catch of Sanchez' line drive leading off the fifth, and al-MOST caught Lopez's liner with two out in the seventh. As Black said during the post-game interview, Blanks has quick feet, great hands, and is getting good jumps on balls hit his way. All that hard work is paying off.

- Josh Spence's last 4 outings: 4 walks, 1 HBP, 1 K, 1 HR. All of a sudden he's having trouble finding the plate. With Joe Thatcher back on the big club, how much longer does Spence stay in San Diego?

Padres have won all 6 games against Florida this season. Nice to see us dominate someone. I'll be at Sunday's game for the Retirement Ceremony, and am looking forward to it. I've never attended a number retiring ceremony, so I hope this lives up to expectations.

Oh, and LeBlanc is STILL safe!

Hundley's Historic Day

2011-08-17T08:42:00.000-07:00

The Padres won last night 6-1 to square the current series, and the season series, with the Mets. By far the most interesting thing that happened during the game (other than the CH-4 audio going out for close to 2 innings) was Nick Hundley's two triples.

I mean no personal insult to the Channel 4 broadcasters. I happen to like Mark Grant, and Dick Enberg is a legend I enjoy listening to when covering other sports. I do think they aren't well-suited as a team to broadcast baseball.

Hundley's feat has been done only 14 other times in Padres history, the last time by Dave Roberts way back in 2005. Nick is also the second catcher to do it. Fred Kendall did it in 1973, getting both triples in Philadelphia off Steve Carlton of all people. It's the first time a San Diego player has hit two triples at home since moving to Petco, and the first time it's been done in San Diego since current hitting coach Randy Ready pulled it off in August 1987, against Houston Astro Bob Knepper. John Kruk hit cleanup for the Padres that afternoon.

The complete list is here.

Padres go for the series win this afternoon.

Game Reflections - #123 vs Mets

2011-08-16T06:00:00.000-07:00

First, thanks to all who attended Saturday's SABR meeting. Geoff from Ducksnorts has a recap which I encourage you to read for two reasons. One, I had to leave before Jane Mitchell started her remarks due to a family committment. Second, I cannot put a better recap together than Geoff did.

Anyway, to tonight's game. A marathon of a game. Three hours and 38 minutes, 10 innings.

- There were over 200 World War II veterans in attendance tonight. When mentioned, they got a prolonged, warm standing ovation from the 30,000 in attendance. Opportunities to speak with the men that fought that war are rapidly becoming harder and harder to find. Soon they will all be gone. It was awesome to see so many of them assembled together. I only wish I could have spent some time down there in conversation.

- Harang fought through 5+ innings but didn't really have it tonight. Lucas Duda hit a mammoth HR to right leading off the second (435'). It was the first of 3 hit to RF during the game (Josh Thole and Will Venable hit the others). I believe that's the first time I've seen multiple HR hit to RF in the same game at Petco.

- Pagan was probably safe on his caught stealing in the third. Replay angles appeared to show Blanks missing the tag by a whisker. The Padres caught another break in the seventh when Duda's clean single hit second base umpire Todd Tichenor. There were 2 out; David Wright probably scores on the play otherwise. It's a dead ball when it hits the ump. Duda got first; Wright stayed at second. Willie Harris then grounded out to short to end the inning.

- Speaking of being hit, two Padres and one Met were hit by pitches tonight. Venable was hit leading off the game on a 1-2 pitch. Not intentional. Forsythe was hit in the second. Isn't there a requirement for the hitter to at least TRY to get out of the way? Looked like Forsythe stuck his elbow out and took a knuckleball off his upper arm. Umpires very rarely do not award the base on a HBP, but I thought they should have considered it in that instance. Later in the game Wright got plunked by Erik Hamren.

- Venable made one of the most athletic plays I've seen in a while on Wright's double in the fifth. Wright's ball sliced into the RF corner, and Venable dove but was too far away. The ball one-hopped the wall in that corner, and Venable popped up, took one look to judge where the carom would go, and turned towards the infield. The ball went over his head and bounced in front of him. Then, because of the spin on that ball, it kicked towards the line. Venable barehanded it and fired it to the cutoff man, holding Justin Turner at third. The play saved a run. Awesome.

- Who hits after Cameron Maybin on this night? The other team! (cheap shot, I know). Maybin made the last out of the inning four times (first, fifth, seventh, ninth), although the line drive he hit to third to end the fifth almost took Wright with it into left field, that's how hard he hit it.

- Josh Spence walked 3 hitters last Friday and got the loss. He walked the only two hitters he faced tonight and got the loss. Spence has been a nice story this year, so hopefully this is a temporary hiccup for him.

- Great play by ~~Bartlett~~ Alberto Gonzalez to stop Scott Hairston's grounder in the tenth, but he couldn't do any more with it than he did. Retiring Thole in the rundown was the best result based on where that ball was hit. He had no play on Pridie even if he had gotten to his feet or knees.

- On a night of milestones, Jason Isringhausen recorded his 300th career save. Congratulations Jason. It was nice (although bittersweet) to see him fire that great curveball of his again. The best one he threw was to Alberto Gonzalez with the count 0-1. As a longtime Cardinal fan, I'm glad he was able to resurrect his career for one more swan song (Izzy has a degenerative condition in his right hip).

Bud Black ran through his bullpen tonight, so Cory Luebke will be asked to pitch deep into tomorrow's game. He can do it, let's hope he's up to it.

Finally congratulations to Jim Thome on his 600th career HR. It did lead to one of the more moronic Tweets I've seen. Paraphrased, it was 'Thome is the first man to hit his 599th and 600th HR in consecutive at bats!' Really? How shocking since only 8 of the 17000+ men to play major league baseball have ever hit 600 career HR. Talk about meaningless trivia.

Padres look to square the series tomorrow night. They also signed a bunch of high draft picks today (it was the deadline to do so), but you can probably read more insightful commentary on that in Tuesday's U-T.

Summer San Diego SABR Meeting TOMORROW

2011-08-12T09:42:00.000-07:00

Hey Gang -

Tomorrow the San Diego SABR Chapter will be holding it's Summer meeting at the Mission Valley Branch of the San Diego Public Library. The Library opens at 0930 and we'll start shortly after that.

On the docket for tomorrow's meeting are:

- Jane Mitchell, author of the book One on One - My Journey with Hall of Famers, Fan Favorites and Rising Stars. Jane hosts the local television show 'One on One' which can normally be viewed on Channel 4.

- Jack Murray, official scorer for the San Diego Padres. Jack has been scoring Padres games in an official capacity for most of the past 30 years. Ever wanted to ask the scorer how he arrived at a particular decision on a play? Here's your chance.

- Luke Yoder, Director of Field and Landscape Maintenance for the Padres. No one comments when the field looks great, but everyone notices when the field has a blemsish. Luke ensures there are no blemishes.

- John Green, who will discuss former NL pitcher Joe Oeschger. John is a SABR member who is heavily involved in the SABR Bio Project.

The Mission Valley Library is located at 2123 Fenton Parkway. Hope you have a chance to stop in and say hello.

Somedays Peanuts, Somedays Shells

2011-08-10T14:30:00.000-07:00

Reason #3457 why I like baseball - it's exactly like life. The Padres could not have looked more dominant than during their weekend dismantling of Pittsburgh, which they followed by losing 2 gut-punch games at the hands of the Mets. You're up, then you're down.

You may have heard the stats Andy Masur put out last night in the first inning of the broadcast. It had been 186 games since the Padres blew a 2-run lead in the ninth inning, all the way back to 2004 (I believe). It had been 195 games since the Mets came back from a 2-run deficit in the ninth inning to win.

San Diego tried to bounce back last night, taking a 4-2 lead into the eighth, but surrendered 3 runs and lost 5-4.

In the last 2 games they've given up 8 runs after the eighth inning started. For the season they've allowed 61 runs total in the 8th and 9th innings. That's 13% of the total in 2 games. Some more numbers to chew on:

- Chad Qualls has now been charged with 11 runs in the eighth. Five of those scored this week (45%). Current ERA in the eighth: 7.07. ERA in the eighth before Monday: 3.46.

- Heath Bell had allowed 11 ER in the ninth going into Monday. His total surrendered jumped 21% with the loss. It had been almost 2 years since he gave up 3 runs in an inning (9/11/09 vs Colorado)

- Josh Spence had walked 6 hitters total (not counting intentional walks) in 20 innings before last night. I wonder if Bill Welke has an unusually small strike zone? I didn't get to see Spence's inning.

Not much to do besides get up, dust off, and try to win one for Harang tonight.

Friday Links

2011-08-05T12:03:00.000-07:00

Ducksnorts and Gaslamp Ball do a great job of posting links to articles. Normally I don't do the same, but I've got two you might enjoy reading.

First Chris Jaffe has a new article on the career of Matt Stairs. He gives highlights from Stairs' each stop along the way. Worth the skim, especially to remember fondly last season.

Then there's this article Howard Bryant posted on ESPN discussing the recent trade deadline activity. It's a good one as far as opinion pieces to. He attacks the Padres, but not solely for either the Adams or Ludwick trades; he goes after the Gonzalez trade last fall.

A couple of money quotes:

"Prospects" has become baseball's euphemism for the white flag.

And

So as the Red Sox win, the Padres sold their fans a future that is at best cloudy and at worst illusory. Each day the Red Sox benefit from [Adrian] Gonzalez while the Padres wait for [Casey] Kelly and [Reymond] Fuentes to reach the big leagues underscores the need for San Diego's front office to have acquired big league talent that, at least, would have sent the message to fans that every year is next year.

Pretty harsh.

Jed Hoyer has been the GM here for less than two seasons, and in my opinion continues to deserve the benefit of the doubt. He trained under Theo Epstein, one of the more successful GMs in the last decade, and assuredly has a plan to improve the franchise. That said, it has been very difficult to watch this Padres team, a fact exacerbated by their near miss for a playoff berth last year. Most of the veteran leadership (Jerry Hairston Jr, David Eckstein, Yorvit Torrealba, etc) was allowed to leave via free agency. Gonzalez was traded. A team once 9 innings away from a playoff berth was gutted.

In its place was built a team that's been shut-out 16 times, nine at home. The pitching has been solid (starters ERA third best in the league, Relievers ERA the best) but they absolutely cannot hit. With the season obviously lost, they traded their cleanup hitter to Pittsburgh for a PTBNL OR cash considerations, and arguably their best bullpen arm for more pitching. The offense has gotten worse. Since Ryan Ludwick left the team they've scored 13 runs in 4 games, with 6 of those coming in a bizarre eighth inning Sunday.

Bryant makes the argument the Padres could have kept Gonzalez for this season and at least attempted to contend. One wonders how many of those veterans would have departed for other teams had it not been so obvious the club was going to trade their All-Star first baseman away during the off-season. One also wonders if the 3 prospects they got back in the trade will turn out better than the two draft picks they could have gotten in next year's amateur draft if Gonzo was allowed to leave as a free agent (Gonzalez would definitely been Type A). Time will tell I guess.

I doubt the Padres will end up in the two decade wasteland of suck the Pittsburgh Pirates are only now crawling out of. The inescapable fact is, however, this franchise has traded away its stars far more frequently than it's acquired major-league talent to fill out its roster. That fact transcends ownership and front office personnel. I didn't intend this post to be all pessimistic, but if San Diego wonders why it's stadium is constantly overrun with fans from opposing teams, it's because the club has no identity, no players that fans can latch onto.

Well the club did, but those guys ended up playing in Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee, Toronto, Atlanta, St Louis ... or have long since retired.

Game Reflections - #112 vs Dodgers

2011-08-04T08:57:00.000-07:00

Padres went 3-6 on this homestand. I managed to watch two of the wins in person, and had tickets to the third win. Now before you start thinking "Of course! All we need to turn the season around is for Mike to attend every game! They never lose at home when he's there!", I also had tickets for Saturday's loss but couldn't make it.

Anyway, some random thoughts about last night's game.

- Through 2 innings Tim Stauffer had thrown 20 pitches, 18 strikes/2 balls. I can't remember seeing a guy pound the plate like that. It wasn't a function of the strike zone, in other words, he wasn't getting generous corners or the low pitch from home plate umpire Chris Conroy. He was on. Stauffer didn't have a 2-ball count until Aaron Miles' at bat with two outs in the third. He had only three 3-ball counts all night (not counting the intentional walk to Matt Kemp in the sixth); two of those were during his 7th inning jam.

Stauffer is currently the best starter on this team. Aaron Harang's record is better, and mat Latos may have more upside, but if I need to win one game this year I'm giving Stauffer the ball.

- Cameron Maybin's went 0-for-4 last night. His first 3 at-bats: A slicing line drive to deep center that Kemp ran down; a line shot to third that almost took Miles' glove into left field with it, and a ball to the track in right that Andre Ethier ran down. Jed Hoyer said recently that he watches every game because you can't tell how well a guy is hitting from the box score. Maybin is stinging the ball right now, even if he came up empty last night.

- When did hitters start prepping the batter's box like they're lining up a 15 foot putt? Twice hitters reached down and threw debris out of the box while setting up for their at bat (dirt clods I think). No wonder games take so long to play now-a-days.

- Luis Martinez tripled to right last night. That's not a misprint. He hit the ball to the base of the wall down the RF line, and it caromed away from Ethier into the Dodger bullpen. I initially thought Ethier played it badly, but there's no way he gets over there to cut it off.

- Orlando Hudson fell asleep at second in the seventh and it almost cost San Diego. Tony Gwynn Jr dropped a drag bunt up first, and Hudson forgot to cover the bag. Bartlett was also late getting to second, but with the jump Dioner Navarro got there wasn't a play there anyway. Luckily Josh Spence shut the Dodgers down (Don Norcross has an excellent article on his outing). Hudson then couldn't get a bunt down in the eighth. Not a game to remember for the O-dawg.

- Bud Black played this one like it was a playoff game. He intentionally walked Kemp in the sixth with the go-ahead run at second. He intentionally walked Casey Blake in the seventh to load the bases. Both gambles paid off.

- Speaking of the seventh, I cannot believe Aaron Miles didn't get run after being called out on strikes to end the inning. It was a borderline strike, a high strike, and Spence got the call. Miles slammed his helmet and fired the bat from 1/3 up the first base line to the on-deck circle outside the Dodger dugout. A different umpire would have tossed him for that display.

- The home eighth ended on the unusual strike out/picked off at third double play. Navarro caught Jesus Guzman straying too far off the bag.

The Padres are off today and start a 3-game series with the suddenly slumping Pittsburgh Pirates tomorrow. Two more notes:

- Blake Tekotte was sent down to AA immediately after last night's game. Joe Thatcher was called up and will make his 2011 debut this weekend.

- There won't be a Padres Trail Podcast tonight. I've decided to suspend the Podcast for a while, likely through the end of the season. There are a couple of reasons for this. The most pressing is my schedule has become even more hectic than ever, and I find myself unable to do any prep work before the show - and the show suffers as a result. Secondary to that, I want to re-evaluate what I'm trying to do with the show and how I can improve it, and I'll need a little time to do that.

Thanks for your patience, and I expect to have a better show for you when it resumes.

So...Who's On First?

2011-07-22T13:40:00.000-07:00

Rizzo is gone and Blanks is up. Jesus Guzman is killing the ball at the moment, and somewhere Brad Hawpe continues to heal. Bud Black potentially has 3 guys on the roster to play one spot - First Base. So who gets the call?

Well the answer, as always, is 'it depends'. Should Hawpe return to the roster, which is not a certainity given his left elbow ligament injury is not one known to heal quickly, they could platoon Hawpe and the two right-handed bats. However, would you platoon two hitters when one is hitting

.231/.301/.344, and the other
.322/.344/.559?

Me neither. It's more likely that, when Hawpe returns from the DL, he becomes the left-handed bat off the bench.

Which brings us to Blanks and Guzman. I'm not sure what we can reasonably expect from Blanks. He was hitting AAA pitching pretty well (to the tune of .351/.421/.716), which looks suspiciously like Rizzo's line before he got called up (.365/.444/.715). Granted, Blanks has Major League experience that Rizzo lacked, and also has sustained success at the ML level in his history. I don't think he'll be as lost at the plate as Rizzo became, but I don't think he'll tear the cover off the ball like Guzman is right now.

Jed Hoyer stated yesterday during his interview with Darren Smith that Blanks will get a lot of playing time now that he's up. If and when Ryan Ludwick gets traded away, it is entirely possible Blanks will man left and leave first to Guzman. However, Blanks has been playing mostly first base during his rehab in the minor leagues, so it would seem reasonable he'd get most of that playing time in the infield.

Maybe the best way to look at it is this way. San Diego has struggled offensively all year. Jesus Guzman is one of the few Padres hitting the ball right now, and even given his limited plate appearances, by OPS+ he's the best bat on the roster. He's earned the right to play every day. Bud Black would be justified in riding the hot hand for a while, since he's had very few hot hands to ride this season. Blanks will get the occasional start in both LF and at 1B for the next week, and once the trade deadline passes we'll see where we are.

Rizzo Sent to AAA, Blanks Recalled

2011-07-21T15:44:00.000-07:00

Initially I was not a big advocate for promoting Rizzo before he was ready. Lately I've thought that, since this is not a year that will produce a post-season berth, why not keep him on the roster?

Well, San Diego sent Anthony Rizzo down following today's 5-3 win in Miami. This is why I'm not working in a front office somewhere.

One hundred seventeen plate appearances does not a career make. It is a small sample size, given that most everyday players log upwards of 700 PA's in a season. But 117 PA is enough to draw some conclusions and see some trends. Rizzo came up and made some great contact initially, including a RF HR at Petco off Washington's John Lannan. His high water mark may have been the Boston series, in which he hit 3 balls to the deepest part of Fenway (two doubles and an out courtesy of Jacoby Ellsbury). Two days later he had the second multi-hit game of his career.

Since, as Geoff over at Ducksnorts noted (slightly updated), he's hit .107/.206/.143 in 63 PA. He was 6 strikeouts short of striking out every other at bat. Teams routinely busted him in, and he routinely swung at those pitches, whether they were up, or down, or in the strike zone, or off the plate. He made very little contact.

He was outmatched. There was no point in keeping him in SD. There are things he clearly needs to work on at the plate, and now that he has an idea of what they are he can spend the time to fix them.

Anthony Rizzo will be back. It won't be until after 1 September, and might not be until next year (although I would be real surprised if he wasn't a roster expansion call-up).

In his place, we welcome Kyle Blanks back to the roster. Finally I can put my Blanks bobble head out and not get ridiculed ('Hey isn't that guy who had a bobble head night when he wasn't on the roster?' yes, thanks for the reminder.) Blanks is the original Rizzo: the kid who tore it up in the minors, then struggled mightily at the major league level when holes in his approach appeared (like an inability to hit a pitch low and away). Like Rizzo, Blanks has legitimate big-league power, and assuming he can hit the pitches he couldn't reach last season will be a middle-of-the-order threat here. Headley, Ludwick (for the next 10 days at least), and Blanks 3-4-5 is pretty good.

Not Pujols-Holliday-Berkman good, but still pretty darn good.

Padres start a 4-game set in scorched Philadelphia tomorrow. My regular Thursday Podcast will air tonight, hope you can join me.

Game Reflections - #94 vs Giants

2011-07-15T23:49:00.000-07:00

This game was entertaining for 4 innings, until Andres Torres took over. Some thoughts after attending the Padres 7th consecutive loss.

- Why so many Giants fans? Maybe because they are the defending Champs, their games in SF are sold out, and ours aren't. Seems silly to get upset about it. Visiting fans taking over Petco won't stop until this franchise has some sustained post season success.

- Second Lincecum start at Petco this season, second time the Giants scored in the first. It's tough enough to beat the guy without spotting him an early lead.

- Chase Headley started but was pinch-hit for in the bottom of the first. A right calf strain was eventually reported. Either he hurt it yesterday or he hurt it trying to corral Ludwick's good but futile throw to the plate.

- Padres put two on with one out in the first and left them. What else is knew.

- Ross' HR was crushed.

- Maybin reached on an error to start the second and was doubled off when Rizzo lined to second. That play was equal parts bad baserunning and a great diving catch by Mike Fontenot.

- Lincecum's back to back wild pitches led to the Padres run. I don't think I'd ever seen consecutive wild pitches live before.

- Cardinal beat writer Derrick Goold tracks 'As So Often Happens' moments. Those innings where a player makes a great play in one inning, then comes to the plate in the next half and reaches base. Andres Torres had one of those moments in the bottom of the fourth/top of the fifth. His catch of Kyle Phillips' line drive on the warning track prevented 2 runs. He then knocked in SF's third and scored their fourth runs, essentially ending the game.

- I couldn't figure out why Moseley hit in the fifth until I remembered Thursday's game went 12 innings. Bullpen was shot.

- Frieri had an awful inning. Back to back doubles, two intentional walks, and a wild pitch with the bases loaded. Maybe it's me; whenever I see him pitch he gets lit up, can't find the strike zone, or both.

- HP umpire Ted Barrett's zone was a little inconsistent; not many high strikes, and sporadic outside strikes that appeared to be balls. Hudson struck out on one of the latter in the eighth, as did Denorfia to end the game.

- Ryan Ludwick is slow. Cody Ross made a good play on Luddy's shot in the eighth, but still.

- Bass pitched pretty well.

- Giants fans gave Sandoval a standing ovation after he grounded to first leading off the ninth. His 22-game hitting streak snapped with that AB. I'd not seen that before either, and have to respect fans paying that close attention to what's going on between the lines. Well done.

There's not much positive to take out of this game other than Bass' performance and the two shots off rookie Luis Martinez's bat. Not XBH hits for a second consecutive game. Only 1 run scored. All that can be said is, try again tomorrow in a favorable pitching matchup (Luebke v. Zito).

2011 Pre-All Star Break Grades

2011-07-14T08:42:00.000-07:00

As we head into the home stretch of the 2011 season, let's take a moment to grade the roster through 92 games.

A: Mike Adams, Heath Bell, Aaron Harang, Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer. Hard to rank Bell anything below A as the lone Padre All-Star in 2011. He's had a lot of tightrope saves this season, but the bottom line is he's blown only opportunity to save a game in 2011 - and that one is the only one he's blown in 12 months. Mike Adams remains unhittable in 2011. Harang has reinvented himself as top-shelf pitcher, and leads the team in wins. Headley has broken out this season, he's the best hitter on the team by OPS+. Stauffer has become the Padres ace, and picked off where he left off in 2010.

B: Cameron Maybin, Ryan Ludwick, Chris Denorfia, Cory Luebke, Dustin Moseley, Luke Gregerson. Broken out thus:

B+: Maybin, Denorfia, Luebke
B: Moseley, Gergerson, Ludwick

Maybin has exceeded expectations at the plate, and played a stellar CF. Denorfia has also exceeded expectations at the plate, and ill-timed dives aside has been a capable corner outfielder. Luebke probably deserved a 'A' rating - he was fantastic out of the bullpen, and lights-out on the mound. Just a revelation this season. Moseley has pitched very well as a starter, better than expected when we got him. Gregerson has been as dependable as ever, although his success is completely predicated on how well he controls his slider. Ludwick? Ryan Ludwick is the lightning rod on this team. He has hit a little worse than his career average but has been the best hitter on the club at driving in runs. His defense has largely been fine, but when he makes a mistake it's a spectacular one.

C: Ernesto Frieri, Mat Latos, Chad Qualls, Josh Spence, Rob Johnson, Nick Hundley, Kyle Phillips, Anthony Rizzo. Broken out thus:

C+: Latos, Qualls, Spence, Phillips
C: Rizzo, Johnson
C-: Hundley

Latos has regressed from his impressive 2010, but we had to expect some slip given his high innings load and the league having an entire off-season to analyze his pitching patterns. He has been equal parts spectacular and awful in 2011. Qualls is a professional reliever and has pitched as we expected. Spence has been awesome so far but he's only thrown 8 innings, so it's hard to rate him higher. Kyle Phillips is a plugger and has been a good addition to the team while Nick Hundley nurses his various injuries. Johnson has been average. Rizzo has been adjusting to major league pitching, which is exactly what we should have expected once the club called him up. Hundley is below average because he quit hitting after the third week in April and has spent significant time injured this season.

D: Jason Bartlett, Orlando Hudson, Alberto Gonzalez, Will Venable, Brad Hawpe. Bartlett - very little production at the plate, too many errors. Hudson - very little production at the plate, too many injuries. Al. Gonzalez swings at too many bad pitches. Venable was so bad he got sent down for a time. Hawpe strikes out too much.

Incomplete: Anthony Bass, Luis Martinez, Jesus Guzman. Not enough playing time.

Tonight the Padres play the first of 70 remaining games in 2011. At 40-52, their odds of making the playoffs are virtually nil. There will be changes coming to the roster, and we'll chronicle them here. Podcast tonight if you have time after the game.

Spiking Chad Qualls

2011-07-07T10:40:00.000-07:00

"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans." John Lennon

That's my best explanation for the silence over here these past 6 days. In the interim, San Diego scored 2 runs (one gifted to them courtesy of the Phil Cuzzi Foundation) at Seattle, then hung 5 runs each on 2 San Francisco All-Star starters. They'd be going for the sweep today if not for the rare Mike Adams hiccup in last night's eighth inning. Well that and 17 consecutive Padres retired by the Giant bullpen to close out the game.

I want to go back to Wednesday's 5-3 triumph for a moment, because this headline caught my eye today:

"Quals Being Excoriated in San Francisco"

First, excoriated is one of my all-time favorite words. Increase your vocabulary: 'excoriated' means to denounce or berate severely, to flay verbally. Hat Tip to Chris Jenkins for using it in his lede. Second, this article shows how ridiculous sports talk has become.

Sports are played with emotion. This is more obvious in some sports, like football, than others. Sometimes I think people consider baseball more a 19th century-type gentlemen's competition instead of an emotional gut-check. Those folks aren't privy to a good rivalry where it's apparent emotion runs high. San Francisco vs San Diego developed that edge last season down the stretch, and it's carried over this year, if the last 3 games are any indication. Whether or not the players admit it, these games have had a playoff edge, which shouldn't exist in July between the first and 4th place teams in a division.

So there's that going in. Then there's the inning itself. Andres Torres is a pest. Pest Pest Pest Pest (I mean that in the most respectful way), as evidenced by his 16-pitch walk that started this fracas with one out. Qualls threw every pitch he had at Torres, who kept fouling the good ones off and taking the ones he couldn't hit. Despite the fact that ball 4 looked like strike 3 on the replay, he worked the walk. Chad, knowing the Giants were down 2 and that Torres was probably going, threw over a couple of times to keep Andres close, but Torres stole second anyway.

Now he's an even bigger pest. Torres gets to third on Crawford's 4-3 groundout, and when the 2-2 pitch skips away from Hundley he takes off for the plate. Normally the runner beats the throw home, because the catcher has to grab the ball, make a perfect throw to the plate that the pitcher covering can handle, and said pitcher has to both block the plate and apply the tag on the runner. Hard to do.

"YER OUT!"

Qualls did it. Inning over, 2-run lead preserved. Having finally retired the Pest, he spiked the ball and exulted.

Could he have handled it in a more Victorian way? Sure. I'm glad he did what he did though. It was an important run kept off the board, he made a play he had no business making, and finally retired a guy who had been a major pain in his side that half-inning. A little raw emotion is good for the soul.

You got a problem with the occasional emoting on the field of battle? Go watch badmiton.

Ludwick 2011 vs Gonzalez 2010

2011-07-01T07:30:00.000-07:00

On Wednesday Ryan Ludwick drove in his 51st run of the year. I got to thinking - how does his 2011 compare with Adrian Gonzalez's 2010?

Ludwick has appeared in 78 of the Padres 82 games this season. His current stats: .258/.324/.405, 109 OPS+, 10 HR, 51 RBI, 28 walks (1 intentionally), 61 strikeouts. His total run production (wRC+) is 110.

Gonzalez through 78 games last season: .297/.389/.518, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 57 walks (13 intentionally), 58 strikeouts. Adrian's OPS+ is not displayed by Baseball-Reference, however they do have a stat called tOPS+, which measures how he did during the first half of the season relative to his average production during the first half. Gonzalez tOPS+ was 105, so it's safe to assume his OPS+ exceeded 109. Likely his wRC+ too.

I did not post these numbers to depress you. I posted them because the RBI number jumped out at me. RBIs, as you probably know, are more a reflection of how good the lineup is in getting folks on ahead of a hitter vice how good that hitter is. But, for all of Ludwick's faults, he is driving runs at the same rate Gonzalez did in 2010.

Believe it or not, from an RBI perspective the Padres did manage to replace Gonzalez's production with Ludwick. That despite the awful first 3 weeks of the season Ludwick threw up.

There likely will not be any posts this weekend, so until next Tuesday have yourselves an enjoyable, and safe, Fourth of July weekend. See you then.

Game Reflections - #82 vs Royals

2011-06-30T13:49:00.000-07:00

At least I tried. What's your excuse?

Apparently I can't count - the last Game Reflection was game 79, not 78. See the cashier for a full refund.

Kansas City is tired of coming to San Diego. Yeah, it's got bright sunshine and beautiful women, but they can't win a game here - now 0-6 lifetime after yesterday's loss. Some thoughts (and apologies for the late afternoon posting, duty called):

- Rizzo stole his first base in the majors, and oh my goodness did he get a huge jump. He'd taken 3 steps before Royal starter Bruce Chen delivered the ball to the plate. It's not often you see the catcher make no throw to third on a stolen base attempt.

- Bruce Chen - 52-51 (going into yesterday), parts of 13 major league seasons. I was stunned to realize he'd hung around that long. Teach your sons to throw left-handed; they'll be gainfully employed until they're 50.

- The game's key play ended up being Tim Stauffer's pop-up to start the third. You'll read that an error was charged to Royals 3B Mike Moustakas on the play. What you won't read is that he had the ball pop out of his glove twice while trying to corral it ALONG THE FIRST BASE LINE. Neither the Royals second nor first basemen wanted any part of that ball. Way to bag your teammate fellas.

Charging Moustakas with the error was unquestionably the right decision but a very tough error given how far he ranged, how close he came, and how tough the sun was yesterday afternoon.

Even so Chen faced Ludwick with two on and two out, eventually with a 2-2 count. Ludwick lined that pitch into the corner for the double that tied the game. The next 5 Padres reached safely, including a line shot off Orlando Hudson's bat that Moustakas couldn't hang onto, and a tough high chop from Rob Johnson that Moustakas tried to short-up and missed.

- The Royals employed a shift against Rizzo when he batted in the fifth (bases empty). I'd not seen that strategery before. Rizzo popped to third on the first pitch.

- Brett Butler got 6 at bats in this series (0-for-6). There was a great story on ESPN recently about why the AL has the advantage over the NL in interleague, which made this fair point: No NL team has a 20-HR guy sitting on their bench when they go to an AL park. The converse is also true - AL teams must take a potent bat out of their lineup to play baseball the way God intended. By OPS+ Butler is the second-best hitter on Kansas City's roster. Advantage Padres.

Of course, trying to get all those big bats into the lineup can be fun too. Witness Adrian playing RF for the Red Sox in Philadephia.

- The Padres used Spence and Qualls to negotiate the eighth. I don't believe manager Bud Black declared Mike Adams unavailable yesterday, but that's how he managed the game. Interestingly Heath Bell worked his fourth consecutive ninth, and got his fourth consecutive save for the second time this season.

- Eric Hosmer (Royals 1B) is going to be good. Really, really good. Everything that guy hits has pace.

- Tim Stauffer was nowhere as sharp as he was on Friday. Didn't matter. Royals threatened in the second, broke through for 1 in the third, and posed no serious threat to him the rest of the way. Many consider Mat Latos the Ace of this staff, based on how he pitched from May to September when he was the Ace. Latos hasn't really pitched like that in 2011 (yet), but Stauffer sure has. For my money he's the Ace of this staff.

After losing 7 straight to the AL, San Diego has won 5 in a row. They travel to Seattle to close out their interleague schedule for 2011. It'd be nice to see them win 3 more. After that, 8 games with San Francisco over 14 days. Here we go.

Game Reflections - #78 vs Royals

2011-06-28T11:12:00.000-07:00

The most ridiculously cool first pitch you will ever see.

The Padres appeared to be cruising along until Brayan Pena's 2 RBI single in the sixth inning. I blame 'the wave' that started around the same time the Royals put two runners in scoring position. Last night's game entertained, with all sorts of action. To the reflections!

- The Royals are hit-and-run fools. They executed two perfectly and sent the runner on numerous other occasions. There was a slightly comical sequence in the third inning when Chris Getz got the 'green light' to go on like 15 straight pitches. Both successful hit-and-runs directly led to Kansas City scoring. Maybe it's me and my old eyes but one does not see much hit-and-run anymore.

- Jeff Francis is a ground-ball pitcher (1.47 GB/FB ratio). Ryan Ludwick is a fly-ball hitter. They seemed to be a bad fit, but Ludwick had a HR and double in two at-bats off Francis, staking starter Mat Latos to an early lead.

- Ludwick would have had a third RBI last night on his double if not for a textbook relay play by the Royals. Alex Gordon, who is a converted third baseman, expertly played the carom off the left-field wall and threw a strike to the cutoff man Alcides Escobar. Escobar then threw a 180' pea to Pena, nailing Chase Headley. The collision was merely pro-forma. Headley was out by 6 feet. I said it on Twitter last night and I'll say it again here - that was a great baseball play.

- That relay to end the third inning was the first of three great throws from the outfield grass. Melky Cabrera almost got Chris Denorfia tagging from second to third in the sixth, and Denorfia almost turned the trick on Pena's tag play in the bottom of the same inning.

- Another one of those searches I wish I could do - the last time a Padre pitcher scored on a wild pitch. Baseball-Reference's search fields don't appear set up to support that (If any of you readers knows how to do it, please pass your secret on to me so I can learn how). Latos did it in the bottom of the fourth.

- The winning run in this one scored without benefit of a hit. Escobar air-mailed the ball to first on Jesus Guzman's grounder; it landed about 15 rows back. Guzman took off for third on Hudson's grounder to third, forcing a throw from Royal first basemen Eric Hosmer which was not caught by Escobar. Guzman trotted home.

I love aggressive baserunning like that. Because Moustakas (Royals 3B) had to come in to field O-Dog's ball, there was no one to cover the bag, so it became a footrace between Guzman and Escobar. Escobar correctly anticipated needing to cover the bag, but he, the throw, and Guzman all arrived at about the same time, and Escobar couldn't make the play.

- Guzman started at first last night and did OK. I thought he should have been charged with an error on Gordon's ground ball leading off the sixth - it looked like it went through him from my vantage point waaaaay out in LF - but admittedly I didn't have the best angle to make that determination. Anthony Rizzo came in as a defensive replacement the next inning.

- The other interesting substitution was removing Ludwick in favor of Will Venable for the ninth. Ludwick's defense is not as bad as some would lead you to believe, but he does occasionally look just awful trying to go back and corral balls hit to left. On the substituion Denorfia took over in left and Venable, who had pinch-hit in the eighth, stayed in to play right. FWIW, Ludwick's plus/minus (from Bill James Online) is +5 (LF), Denorfia +6 (RF), Venable +6 (RF). On the defensive spectrum LF is considered a less difficult position than RF, so Denorfia's +6 can be considered more than just 1 point better than Ludwick's +5. Maybin clocks in at +14 in CF.

Podcast tonight at 10pm PDT. It'd be nice to have another victory to crow about.

Karmic Payback

2011-06-27T10:17:00.000-07:00

After leaving 11 runners stranded it felt like the Padres were doomed to fail again. After Orlando Hudson and Will Venable played hot potato with the ball on consecutive plays int the eighth, the groan from 24000+ in the ballpark was audible.

Here we go again.

Then a funny thing happened. "It seems Destiny has taken a hand," ; Richard Blain would say. San Diego loaded the bases again in the bottom of the inning, weathered a bunt lineout by Venable that thankfully was part of a safety squeeze, then exulted when Johnny Venters deflected Jason Bartlett's ball into no-mans land to drive in Denorfia.

Seven pitches later the Padres had three more runs off Venters. It should be noted Venters was the stingiest relief pitcher in baseball at the start of the day; he had allowed 3 earned runs to the league.

Destiny took a hand indeed.

Two other non-game action notes for your consideration:

- What were the odds I'd put a post up about squeeze plays, and Bud Black would call for one in the eighth? It also means my stats are wrong; Black's Padres had successfully EXECUTED 307 sacrifices prior to last nights game; he may have tried many more. I'll have to go back to the data.

- On the post-game show Ted Mendenhall suggested maybe the Padres should send Rizzo back to AAA and try out Jesus Guzman at first. His rationale: Guzman is hitting .308 at the moment, Rizzo .175. Personally I didn't think there was a need to rush Rizzo to the majors, but now that he's here the Padres should take a long look at him to determine if he is the first baseman of the future.

The kid is 21. He tore up a hitter friendly league in AAA. There's a reason guys pitch at AAA - they ain't good enough for the Majors. The jump from AAA to the Majors is the biggest improvement in talent Rizzo has experienced during he advancement through the minors. Only one guy in my recent memory went right from the minors to being a great Major League hitter, and he may well turn out to be the greatest right-handed hitter ever. Rizzo is good, with ML-caliber power, but he's not Albert Pujols.

An adjustment period was inevitable. Rizzo will figure it out. Let's not panic after two weeks of plate appearances.

Roster Moves

2011-06-26T12:18:00.000-07:00

Padres recalled Anthony Bass from AA San Antonio and sent Evan Scribner to AAA Tucson.

From Padres press release.

Squeezes and Suicide Squeeze calls by Bud Black

2011-06-26T09:17:00.000-07:00

Everth Cabrera from 2010. The Bunt can be an effective weapon.

In the bottom of the sixth last night, with Padres on first and third, one out, down two, the inevitable 'why not squeeze here?' question got posted on Twitter. I do not think there's a single manager in the Majors today who would call for a squeeze attempt by their 5-hitter in any inning or game situation. Bud Black did not in this situation; Anthony Rizzo struck out looking.

For teams that struggle scoring runs though, the squeeze can be an effective weapon go bring the runner in from third. At the bottom (or sometimes, the top) of the order, NL teams typically have position players that can handle the bat well enough to make the squeeze possible. San Diego has struggled to score runs for 2 seasons now. So the Twitter question raised a larger one for me: How often does Bud Black bunt with runners on third?

Off to Baseball-Reference we go.

Since becoming the Padres manager in 2007, Black has called for 303 sacrifice bunts. Only 11 of those plays have come with a runner on third (9 with runners on first and third, 2 with a runner on third only) - 3.6% of the total. Seven of those squeeze attempts have been by pitchers, four by position players (Oscar Robles, David Eckstein, Everth Cabrera, Chris Denorfia). Here's the interesting thing - on 7 of the 11 occasions, the Padres had the lead when attempting the bunt. In fact, before 2011 Black had attempted only one sacrifice bunt with a runner on third, less than 2 out, and his team behind - 5/13/2009 - and on that occasion the run did not score from third.

This year Black recognized the difficulty his team has scoring runs. Going into Friday's game the Padres were hitting .225 with RISP (133-592, and they went 0-7 last night. In 2011 he has already called for a bunt with a runner on third three times, the most since 2008, all with his team either tied or behind. San Diego has scored the run on two of those occasions, once to tie, once to take the lead.

One other nuance. Black virtually never calls for a sac bunt with just a runner at third, when it is most obvious the bunt will be a squeeze attempt. He's made that call twice - once in 2007, and once last year.

What conclusions can we draw? Black likes to let his hitters hit regardless. He will only try a 'squeeze' play with guys hitting 8th or 9th in the order (8 of the 11 attempts have come from those two positions), and only early in the game (only twice has he called for a bunt in this situation after the fifth inning).

Giving the team's continued struggles getting runners home from second and third period, the squeeze play should be something Black considers. Granted, using it all the time significantly detracts from its usefulness. Only using it 3 times a season keeps runs off the board.

Game Reflections - #77 vs Braves

2011-06-25T12:51:00.000-07:00

"I got ALL of that one!"

Last night's game was a treat. Easily the most complete game I've seen the Padres play in person this season. Now that you've digested the SDUT writeup, and game summaries on your favorite sports website, allow me to add some thoughts.

- Lots of aggressiveness early. Venable going on an 0-2 count kept San Diego out of the double play. I really liked him going on that pitch because Lowe threw over 3 times during the at bat; kind of an F-U steal attempt. Additionally the Padres successfully moved runners over on ground outs 3 times in the first 2 innings. Many folks disdain situational hitting, but it is an important part of the game - especially for this team that struggles to score runs.

- Ludwick is flailing at the low and away pitch again. Looks like his hot hitting is done.

- Heyward's single through Stauffer, and Jones' soft single to left, but Stauffer in immediate trouble. Bartlett made a real nice play on McCann's ground ball. It was hit hard, and Bartlett was blocked by Heyward's body. He still picked it on one hop and started the 6-4-3 twin killing. That was the start of 16 up, 16 down for Stauffer.

- Padres got their second run courtesy of a great take-out slide by Orlando Hudson. Without that play Ludwick is doubled at first and the score is still 1-0. Again, more fundamental baseball. Could it be the Red Sox rubbed off on these guys?

- The Braves pitched out in the third with Bartlett going, and he still stole second base. It helped McCann's throw was high and on the first base side of the bag. I cannot remember the last time I saw someone successfully steal on a pitchout.

- After San Diego made it 5-0 I was a little surprised Stauffer went back out for the seventh inning. Schafer's line out to end the sixth was well struck, the best contact any Brave hitter had made since McCann's double play ball. It seemed to indicate Stauffer was tired. Sure enough, the three balls put in play were smoked. Freeman's HR cut the lead to 3, but stauffer was able to strike out Uggla for the second time to retire the side.

- Speaking of Uggla, he almost got hit in the head by a Freeman foul ball in the fifth inning. Freeman was late, hit it off the end of the bat, and it hit the screen with a thud right next to where Uggla was standing. He moved into the dugout for the rest of the at bat. The next time he came on deck, he stayed in the on-deck circle. Visions of Juan Encarnacion flashed through my head when I saw how close that ball came to Uggla. Glad he was not struck.

- When Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell visited Lowe in the sixth, Jorge Cantu's entry music blared over the PA system. Somewhere Avenging Jack Murphy went into convulsions and could not understand why.

-On Alberto Gonzalez's single to drive in 2 later in that same inning, Heyward fielded the ball and threw to... third. Not sure I understood that. Maybin was the runner at second when the play started, but Gonzalez stuck the ball well and Heyward got to it in a hurry. Plus, as he showed off on that play, he has a cannon for an arm. Hundley (who was at first) was not going to try for third. An interesting choice of bases to throw to.

- Guzman's HR sounded like a rifle shot. Literally. First Padre pinch-hit HR this season, and first Padre pinch-hit HR since Sept last year (Stairs, against STL). You've never seen a happier guy rounding the bases and sitting in the dugout after a big hit than Guzman on that one. Love the energy.

- Josh Spence came in with Peavy's number (44). He topped out at 85 on the gun with his fastball. You're typical soft-tossing lefty. For his ML debut, he only had to face Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann. You know, the three best hitters on Atlanta's roster, two All-Stars and a Hall of Famer. He retired the side in order. Well done kid.

Towel night tonight. Not sure I'll make the game. I will make tomorrow's, and am looking forward to Cory Luebke's first start of 2011.

AA vs AAA Pitcher Call-ups

2011-06-22T09:28:00.000-07:00

Nice win for the Padres last night. Latos battled through 6 tough innings. The offense sputtered again but broke a 4-4 tie in the eighth inning, and the bullpen shut down Boston late.

Couple of things to discuss. During last night's Podcast I mentioned that it seems the Padres have dipped into AA more often than AAA for pitching help this year. Looking at their transactions for this season that's not quite accurate.

AAA pitching callups: Wade LeBlanc (4/24, 6/14), Evan Scribner (4/25, 6/9).
AA pitching callups: Anthony Bass (6/13), Joshua Spence (6/21).

Wade LeBlanc being called up twice this season is not surprising; he spent significant time with the big club in 2010. Scribner's a big righty but has been used exclusively in games the Padres trailed by at least 3 runs.  That's it for AAA pitching promotions. Until recently the Padres pitching corps had been pretty healthy save Joe Thatcher. With Harang and Gregerson on the mend, and Moseley ailing but pitching through it, I find it interesting that San Diego's front office is willing to dip into their lower level minor league team for help.

I just don't remember that happening a lot before.  It might be I haven't paid as close attention to where the callups come from as I am now. Or it might be the PCL is such a hitters league this season it's hurting Jeremy Hefner and Will Inman's (to name two) chances of making a big league start. Bass won his ML debut so there won't be any second-guessing here. We'll see what Spence brings to the table in upcoming days.

We also talked last night about Wade LeBlanc's chances of making another start. He was sent down after his Monday start, so that talk is kind of moot; who gets the start instead?  Harang won't come off the DL until 28 June at the earliest, meaning he'll miss his next start (which would be Saturday). If I was a betting man I'd bet Cory Luebke will get the ball this Saturday.  Luebke has been the lone left-hander in the Padres bullpen this season, however the call-up of Joshua Spence (who's left-handed) had to be designed with covering Luebke's bullpen slot in mind.

I really like Luebke getting a start. He dominated the Red Sox lineup for 3 innings on Monday, and I believe Black would have left him out there longer if the seventh inning had been the fourth inning; he might have been able to pitch out of it. At least he could have done no worse than Frieri did. Atlanta will be a challenge and I'm looking forward to seeing him battle.

Why The Ludwick Hate?

2011-06-21T08:24:00.000-07:00

So many things to talk about from last night. So, so many things:

Why the Padres didn't try to squeeze in the fourth inning.
Why Ernesto Frieri can't find the strike zone.
Why Wade LeBlanc continues to get starts and Cory Luebke doesn't.

I was going to write about any number of these (and probably still will in the coming days). On the drive in this morning, however, I was distracted from that by Scott Kaplan (of Scott and BR fame on XX1090). Naturally it makes sense this morning, after a nightmarish 7th inning which saw 10 consecutive Red Sox reach base with 2 outs, that the first Padres player Scott Kaplan decides to hammer is Ryan Ludwick. To paraphrase: 'If I have to watch one more Ludwick dive...'.

Why all the Ludwick hate? Why does Kaplan have a hardon for Ludwick?

Since May first, Ludwick is hitting .295/.348/.416. He's one of only two guys on this team (the other being Chase Headley) hitting consistently, and he's the only real power threat the Padres have. I've documented here that his defense is not as bad as most believe. So why the continual Ludwick bashing?

Because of his diving attempt to catch Kevin Youkilis' double in the seventh inning? Let's analyze that sequence for a moment.

When Youkilis stepped to the plate for the second time, the Padres were on their third pitcher of the inning. There had already been 4 walks (one intentional) and 2 hit batsman in the inning. After Frieri retired Youkilis for the second out (on a fly to Ludwick no less), the Red Sox hitters went: intentional walk (Ortiz), walk (Drew), HBP (Scutaro on ball 4), HBP (Varitek), single (Reddick), single (Ellsbury), walk (Pedroia), and single (Gonzalez).

That's a long inning.

Youkilis' second fly ball was the first ball (since his previous at bat in the inning) where a Padre fielder even had a whisper of a hope of making the play. Ludwick, tired of standing in LF watching the carnage, tired of his team getting its brains beat in, tired of not being able to do anything to stop it - ran flat-out down the warning track from where he had been positioned (more in LC than LF) and tried to make the play to get out of the inning. He missed. Youk ended up with a double.

That's the play. This isn't Ludwick diving under a ball which led to 2 runs and the loss like he did on 11 June against Washington (although that play happened in the first inning, so the Padres had the entire game to score three). This was Ludwick trying to get his team out of a nightmare of an inning. That's the play Kaplan decides to make fun of at the start of his show this morning?

People who hate Ludwick because he flopped down the stretch last season need to get over it. People who hate Ludwick because he started this season hitting .098 need to look at what he's done lately. Ryan Ludwick is not the problem here.

Come on, Scott Kaplan - you're better than this.

Rizzo vs Headley - first 10 games

2011-06-20T11:47:00.000-07:00

Three brutal losses this weekend. Five unearned runs enroute to a 6-5 loss, shutout for the 12th time this season, then losing a game they led 3-1 in the sixth. Now we go to Boston to play the other hot AL team.

"Nice to see you, Adrian. Can you sit these 3 games out so we have a 10% chance of winning?"

Speaking of Adrian, how's his replacement holding up? After a double, triple, and HR in his first four games, he's struggled a bit: .148/.361/.370 in 36 PA. The best think we can say about Anthony Rizzo is the slow start on balls in play has not affected his batters eye. His OPS+ still sits at 112, which on this Padre team is 4th best.

Here's something interesting - how does Rizzo's first 10 games compare with Chase Headley's? Rizzo's line is above. Here's Headley's: .250/.250/.525 (40 PA). Headley hit 3 HR in his first 10 games with the Padres (hence the high SLG), but had not walked in 40 PA (and had struck out 15 times) which drove his OBP down. Padres were 1-9 in Headley's first 10 games, 2-8 so far in Rizzos (appropos of nothing).

People soured pretty quickly on Headley, which I at the time thought was inherently unfair. He did not lift a bad team out of being bad by himself, and it was unrealistic to expect he would. People's expectations of Rizzo seem much more reasonable; this is also a bad team, Rizzo is not going to lift them out of being bad by himself.

It might also be helping to manage Rizzo expectations that he's only played 4 of his first 10 games at home. Headley played 7 of his first 10 at Petco.

I thought that'd be more interesting than rehashing this weekend's series. Ugh.

Game Reflections - #63 vs Rockies

2011-06-08T22:08:00.000-07:00

Padres lost a winnable game today to the Rockies, and dropped their first series in 2 weeks. That's a bummer.

I'm not going to do my usual recap of the whole game. Instead, I want to make two points about the bottom of the eighth and top of the ninth.

The bottom of the eighth starts with a leadoff single from Ryan Ludwick. Bud Black immediately pinch-runs for him with Chris Denorfia. Taking Ludwick, his cleanup hitter and really his best hitter in the lineup, out at this juncture is risky, but figure Black thinks if the run scores he only needs to get 3 more outs. It's worth the risk.

Brad Hawpe has a good at bat, then flies out to the track in RF.

During Nick Hundley's (and welcome back Nick) at bat Denorfia steals second. A passed ball later and he's at third. Colorado brings the infield in.

Point Number One: The Contact Play Sucks

San Diego puts the contact play on, meaning that as soon as the ball is put into play Denorfia breaks for the plate. Except that Hundley grounds weakly back the pitcher and Deno is out by 20 feet. Which begs the question: why? In this situation, Denorfia's run gives the Padres the lead. If the ball gets through the infield he scores. If Hundley lifts a fly ball to the outfield he scores. If Hundley makes an out without the contact play on - and this is critical - THE WINNING RUN IS STILL 90 FEET AWAY.

Teams play the infield in specifically to cut down the run at the plate. I don't care if Usain Friggin' Bolt is taking a lead off third, on a ball hit right to an infielder playing in he's out at the plate if he goes. So why would any team ever put the contact play on, especially with the infield in?

Hindsight is always 20/20. Alberto "Hacker" Gonzalez singled to center (which would have driven in Denorfia), then Cantu made the third out.

So on to the top of the ninth. Heath Bell is in, which seems odd considering he's the only guy in the bullpen that pitched Tuesday. However, since there will be no save opportunity once the game goes extra innings (where essentially it is at this point anyway), and the top of the Rockie lineup is due, why not.

Carlos Gonzalez leads off with a single. Jonathan Herrera, pinch hitter, attempts to bunt but pops it up. In his eagerness to turn two, Jorge Cantu kicks the ball. Hundley picks it up, has no play at second, slips while throwing the ball to first but retires Herrera. Bud Black then decides to walk Todd Helton and face Troy Tulowitzki.

Point Number Two: The Intentional Walk

In this game, Helton was 4-for-4 with a single, home run, and 2 doubles. On deck is Tulowitzki, the Rockies best player. Helton is 5-for-12 lifetime against Bell, Tulo is 0-for-14. Actually seemed like the correct move. Bell eventually uncorks a wild pitch during the Tulo at bat, so both runners move up 90 feet. On Deck is Seth Smith. If you're willing to walk Helton, why not walk Tulowitzki at this point to set up a double play?

Pitching to Tulo initially with runners on first and second at least has the double play in order as a potential benefit, but that's gone courtesy of the wild pitch. And the maxim that you don't want to put the go-ahead run in scoring position does not apply. The winning run was already in position thanks to the "successful" (read: botched) sacrifice bunt. Walking Tulo would not put another run in scoring position either; he was already there courtesy of the wild pitch.

Black was willing to be aggressive in taking Ludwick out, and in putting the contact play on. Why did he go in to a shell at this point?

Tulo doubles in two, Huston Street works his second 1-2-3 ninth inning, and the Padres lose 5-3.

A wise man once said, every team wins 40 and loses 40; it's how you manage the other 80 that makes your season. This game was one of the 80. San Diego gave this game away.

Off-Topic: USC Sanctions

2011-06-07T12:20:00.000-07:00

The Padres got shut out for the 10th time this season 3-0 (although this one was different. they didn't lose because they could not hit; they lost because they could hit with RISP). The First Round of the 2011 MLB Draft was yesterday. I'll discuss those items a bit on tonight's Podcast.

This post is about the Sanctions handed down by the NCAA against USC.

First, I must inform you I am not a Trojan fan. In college I had on my door a bumper sticker that read "My 2 Favorite Teams Are The Bruins and Whoever Is Playing USC". But even someone like me who relishes any Trojan athletic defeat thinks the NCAA got it wrong here.

Yes Reggie Bush was ineligible in 2004. Forcing him to surrender his Heisman trophy was appropriate (in my opinion). Forcing USC to vacate the 2004 National Championship? What purpose does that serve in 2011?

None of the players from that 2004 team remain at USC (I assume they all either graduated by 2008 or were asked to find gainful employment elsewhere). None of the coaches from that 2004 team remain, and the AD who presided over it was fired. So who, exactly, is the NCAA punishing? Making this decision even more ridiculous, USC retains the national championship voted to them by the AP.

Those of us with a memory know USC destroyed Oklahoma in the BCS title game. Men In Black is a fun movie, but the ability to wipe all our memories has not yet been developed (or at least acknowledged as existing by government).

You want to punish USC? You gotta hit them where it might actually hurt - the pocketbook. How about making the school and the Pac-10 Conference return the money they received for the BCS bowl appearance? How about telling them, 'Hey, the next time you are ranked #1 or #2 in whatever-system-we-will-be-using-to-determine-these-things you will not be allowed to play in the national championship game because of this"? How about, if the NCAA ever comes to their senses and goes to a playoff system, telling USC "Hey you made the field, but because of 2004 you have now forfeited your first game"?

Or, how about the next (pick a number) x-times they play in a BCS game they receive none of the money they would be normally entitled to?

Cutting scholarships and barring TV appearances hit them in the wallet, and will most likely hamper their return to 'greatness' for some time to come. I would like to see some additional sanctions handed down that take effect in the future vice trying to re-write history.

Vacating the 2004 National Championship? That's a paper cut. It might sting a little at first, but really no one notices. So why do it.

Game Reflections: #59 and #60 vs Astros

2011-06-06T14:04:00.000-07:00

The mood in the ballpark the day after a win at home is so much more positive than after a loss. It's tangible. It was not so noticeable on Saturday but it was blatantly obvious Sunday afternoon. Nice to see the Padres carry their road roll with them on the plane for the first time this season.

By taking 3 of 4 from Houston the Padres won their first series of the season at home. Some thoughts from the weekend's games (which I was happily able to attend):

- Padres scored in the first inning on both days. Their 2 runs in the first Saturday matched the number of runs they had scored on Saturday at home all season. Then they jumped on 20-year old Jordan Lyles for 3 Sunday.

- Hunter Pence has got to be in the top 5 of 'best players no one knows'. He only had 2 hits in the 2 games I saw but hit several balls hard. Pence left town with a 17-game hitting streak, the longest of his career.

- Chase Headley won't make that list but he is locked in at the plate right now. He had a single on Saturday and 2 doubles Sunday. Headley also has a hit streak in progress (15 games). There's been a mild debate on where he should hit in the order. With his high OBP and low power numbers I'd begun to think leadoff or #2 were the best spots, however, so long as he's hitting #3 is fine. He's getting on in front of Ludwick, and that's essential for this offense.

- Logan Forsythe hammered a double in the third inning Saturday to drive in his first ML run. Well done, kid.

- Aneury Rodriguez pitched pretty well for the Astros but Aaron Harang was better. Ernesto Frieri tried to make things interesting in the ninth (although in my opinion he got squeezed big time by Todd Tichenor; the 3-0 pitch to Sanchez was a strike, as was the first one to Downs), but Bell recovered in time to strand the tying runs in scoring position.

- The interesting thing about Saturday's game was how many late swings the Astros had. By my count they hit 11 balls to right (2-for-11 on those balls) off him. Harang must hide the ball real well, or at least was hiding the ball real well Saturday. Eric Patterson played very well in RF on the night; I thought he gave up a little bit on one foul ball near the Astro bullpen, but his running catch in the third inning (slamming into the wall) was a big play, as was his throw to the plate in the second.

Good game Saturday. And garden gnomes to boot!

- Ryan Ludwick got applause when he walked to the plate for his first AB Sunday. It marked the first time I can remember him getting that reception here this season.

- When Alberto Gonzalez got hit Saturday the fans booed. When Ludwick got hit Sunday they didn't. Either Saturday's fans were looking for a reason to boo, or they realize the difference between taking a ball off the shirt (midsection) and taking one off the shoulder (on a ball headed for Gonzalez's head). Ludwick got pounded inside Sunday in all his AB.

- After Latos struck out in the second, Astro catcher Robinson Cancel chucked the ball into RF. Funny.

- Astro 3B Chris Johnson got hit leading off the second Saturday night, then Ludwick and C Rob Johnson got hit Sunday. Lyles was wild, so I don't think there was intent to retaliate.

- Not in the box score, but Brad Hawpe maed a fantastic play on an errant pickoff attempt by Rob Johnson in the fifth inning Sunday. Otherwise that ball's in RF and the Astros have (minimum) runners on second and third with 0 outs. Pence's hit would have then made the score 4-3 and the rest of the game is very different. Big play by Hawpe.

- Jason Bourgeois is hitting .407. That is not a misprint. He's the 4th outfielder on that team. I'm thinking he's trade bait in July.

- Bourn and Bourgeois are base stealers and they really ran on Johnson Sunday. Remember the troubles Padres pitchers (especially Chris Young) had a couple of years ago holding runners on? Seems those slow times to the plate have never quite been corrected. Some of it might be on the catchers, but to my eye most of it is on slower than average delivery times to the plate.

- Speaking of steals, Rob Johnson stole a base in the sixth inning Sunday. It's actually his 4th career stolen base (he's also been caught stealing twice). Johnson's last successful steal was April of last year, off Matt Wieters (FWIW, besides Robinson Cancel he's burned Kelly Shoppach and Victor Martinez).

The big key in these 2 games? The Padres played good defense, and they've hit with RISP. They were 4-for-50 through the first game of the Washington series; they were 21-for-56 going into Sunday's game (where they went 2-for-17. the .117 average is bad, but the had SEVENTEEN at bats with a runner on second or third yesterday. Wow). The law of averages really does work.

Next up is the scuffling Colorado Rockies. San Diego could be in third by mid-week, and wouldn't that be nice.

Just How Bad is Ludwick's Defense?

2011-06-03T10:54:00.000-07:00

Actually he usually catches these.

You've heard it. You may have said it: Ryan Ludwick is a lousy defensive outfielder. Well with 35% of this season's games played, we have enough data to ask: just how bad is Ludwick defensively?

Let's use Dewan's plus/minus metric as our measuring stick. Ever wondered how that stat is calculated? Here you go:

A player gets credit (a "plus" number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a "minus" number) if he misses a play that at least one player made.

Simple, and effective. Here's the leaderboard through last night:

Thirteen names on the list. Ryan Ludwick is not oe of them. Oh gee whiz he really does suck, I mean he's not even in the top 13!

Well maybe not. Ludwick is actually fourteenth at +4. Thirty teams in the league, he sits in 14th, that means he's spectacularly average in left. Let's take it one step further: how does he stack up against the rest of the NL West?

Parra (AZ) +23. Statistically he's the best defensive LF in the game today.
Ludwick (SD) +4. Surprised? He ranks 14th overall as we mentioned previously.
Sands (LA) 0. He's a rookie; ranks 25th at the moment.
C. Gonzalez (COL) -2. This surprised me a bit. Everyone knows CarGo (probably the stupidest nickname I've seen recently) has blossomed into a force at the plate, but I had no idea he was inept in the field. Gonzalez is ranked 27th.
Ross (SF) 0. He spent a month hurt and is still rounding into shape. Dewan assigns him no rank based on a lack of data.

We will revisit this again as the season wears on, but I think complaints about Ludwick's poor defense are overblown a lot. He may not be exceptional, but he's good enough.

Winning Road Trip

2011-05-31T21:18:00.000-07:00

Padres win 5-4.

- It's the first time they've won 4 in a row on the road since August 15-19, 2010 (against San Fran and the Cubs). It's also the first time they've won 4 in a row period since that trip.
- It's the first time they've won consecutive series this season. It's the first time they've won consecutive series since taking 2 of 3 from the Dodgers and Reds last September (9/21 to 9/26, specifically).
- It's the first time Heath Bell has saved 4 consecutive games in 4 consecutive days since August 10-13, 2010 (Pirates and Giants).
- Mat Latos has put together 3 consecutive quality starts, and is starting to look more and more like his 2010 self.
- Ryan Ludwick has risen from the dead. Over his last 16 games (not including tonight) he's hit .364/.380/.545.
- Brad Hawpe must have had the tomb next to him. Since 24 April (again not including tonight) he's hitting .308/.368/.500.

This is the first winning trip of any kind this season (I don't count the first 3 games of the season as a trip, it was only one series). Maybe things are finally looking up.

No Podcast tonight. Today's my last day on active duty and I'm going to celebrate a little bit.

Game Reflections - #49 vs Cardinals

2011-05-25T09:04:00.000-07:00

In the interests of equal time, last night's game recap is posted over at Stan Musial's Stance (here's the link). Thanks for reading.

Game Reflections - #48 vs Cardinals

2011-05-24T07:33:00.000-07:00

Before we get to the game, two quick updates.

1. My friend John did indeed break his arm on Sunday. His surgery to repair is later this week. Please keep him in your thoughts and/or prayers.
2. There will be no Podcast tonight. Odds are high I will still be at work and unable to get to a phone. Next Podcast will be Thursday.

Good game last night. Tough loss for the Padres. I mentioned over at my other site not to expect San Diego to lay down for St Louis in this series. The team meeting after Sunday's game suggested a refocusing of effort by the Padres last night. The surprise demotion of Will Venable to AAA Tucson and call up of Blake Tekotte from AA San Antonio I'm sure shook up the locker room as well. To my eye they looked a little less flat than they did during the Seattle series.

- Pujols hammered the ball in his first at bat. Unfortunately he hit it to the deepest part of Petco on a cool night, and the ball died on the warning track. AP yelled at the ball as he was headed up the line, something I don't remember seeing him do before. I guess we know now the homerless drought was at least present in his conscious mind. His collision with John Jay at first after Cameron Maybin caught the ball elicited laughter from the crowd, as you might expect.

- Rasmus' catch robbing Ludwick of the HR was very cool to see in person. He timed his jump perfectly. Ludwick also has the best 'you gotta be sh**ing me' face in the game today.

- Initially I thought Hawpe was an idiot for not taking third on Headley's ground out to second in the second, but on the replay it was not clear if Schumaker could catch that ball in the air or not. Hawpe did the right thing by freezing. If it got past the Cardinal second baseman Hawpe easily makes third anyway.

- The Cardinals made a late pregame change, switching Berkman to left and John Jay to right. It worked out in the fifth inning for the Cardinals, as Jay ran down Orlando Hudson's drive in to the gap for an out. It worked out for the Padres in the sixth, as Berkman misjudged Chris Denorfia's line shot into a double. Although in fairness to Berkman, judging a ball hit that hard, headed right at you in the OF, is the toughest play in baseball IMO.

- Maybin's bunt in the seventh was exquisite.

- After Mike Adams went 3-0 on Albert Pujols in the eighth I thought we were looking at one of those unintentional/intentional walks. Then Pujols swung at a 3-0 pitch (which was a breaking ball, but right down the middle) and missed it. The 3-2 pitch was borderline, but home plate umpire Jim Joyce had been calling that pitch a strike consistently the entire game. Give Joyce credit for letting Pujols vent and not reacting. I don't know what LaRussa said to get run, but it must have been a doozy.

- The difference between the 19-29 Padres and 29-20 Cardinals was evident in the bottom of the seventh and top of the ninth. The bottom of the seventh saw the Padres put runners on first and third with 0 out. They got one run on Jorge Cantu's sac fly, but that was it. The Key AB was Hudson's weak ground ball to Pujols that caught Headley off third. Having no real bench presence behind Cantu did not help either.

In the ninth, Schumaker took a chance trying to stretch his hit into a double and beat it. Replays showed he was indeed safe by an eyelash. Then Jose Oquendo aggressively sent Schumaker to the plate on Descalso's single just past Hudson. It reinforced something I noticed during the Seattle series, too: opposing teams are very willing to test the Padre outfielders' arms. Seattle took several extra bases on soft singles. The Cardinals did the same last night when it counted.

That and STL got clutch hitting when they needed it, something San Diego has struggled to do at home all season.

Aaron Harang has been solid all season at home for the Padres. He matches up Kyle McClellan, who has pitched better as a first-year starter than anyone could have reasonably expected going into the season. San Diego has its work cut out for it again tonight, as it tries to snap this 4-game losing streak.

And tries to score more than 2 runs for the first time in a week.

Game Reflections - SDABL Playoffs

2011-05-23T06:30:00.000-07:00

This post is not about the Padres, because that post would have looked a lot like what I've written the past 2 days. Padres score 1 run, strike out a lot, lose to Seattle. Instead, this post is about adult baseball in San Diego.

I still try to play baseball on Sundays. Actually I am on a field somewhere in San Diego every Sunday; the try describes my level of play. If the Majors are the pinnacle of baseball in this country, the San Diego Adult Baseball League 38+A division is near the bottom of the mountain. No one in this league plays because they still harbor major league aspirations, they play because they love it.

The team I play on has 18 guys who share that love. We range in age from 40 to 67 years old, and we're still pretty good - good enough to make the playoffs as one of the 4 best teams in our league each season. This season, well, it was different. We lost our first 2 games, then reeled off seven straight. We finished second by a 1/2 game (same number of losses as the #1 team, just we played one fewer game; we chose not to play on Mother's Day). You never know what might happen, but this team had the best chance of any I've been on to win the playoff tourney.

The playoffs started today, and we played Berry's Athletic Supply's team. If you know anything about Berry's they always put good teams on the field. They sponsor teams in every division of the SDABL, and typically win. The Berry's team in our bracket is no different. We only lost 2 games this season, and squeaked by in a couple of others, but Berry's was the only team that really handled us. We had an ace in the hole, though - our best pitcher missed the first game, but would be on the field today. I liked our chances.

Berry's jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first, when with runners on first and second and two out, Juan Eichelberger (yes THAT Juan Eichelberger) singled to left, scoring the runner from second. I, who was playing left at the time, threw to the plate but the throw was going to be late. Instead it was cut off and we cut down the other runner between second and third. Berry's scratched out another run in the fourth to make it 2-0.

In the meantime we had trouble solving Berry's starting pitcher, but our ace kept their lineup in check and us in it. In the bottom half of the fifth we put two runners on for the first time all game, and when they moved up on a wild pitch to second and third we had our first real opportunity, albeit with two out. Our shortstop engaged their pitcher in an epic battle, eventually singling to center on a full count, scoring both and tying the game at two.

Like I said, it looked to be our day.

In the top of the sixth Berry's eventually put two on (again at first and second) with two out, and Eichelberger stepped up again. This time he took an 0-2 pitch and lined it to right for a hit. I, who was playing RF this time (funny how I was involved in both of his RBI hits), played it on a hop, then threw a strike to the cut-off man, who threw a strike to the plate, which beat the runner by 6 feet.

Umpire called him safe. Said later he got his toe in before the tag was applied.

But that's not the worst of it. On the next pitch our pitcher broke his arm. Or that's what we think happened. I heard a loud pop from right field, watched the ball sail to the backstop, the runner on third score, the second base umpire call time, and our pitcher walk off the mound. All in the time it took you to read that sentence.

It may turn out he tore the tendon that holds his tricep to his radius, or something like that. I don't know; I probably won't for about 2 weeks. We called the paramedics, and after they stabilized him he left the field under his own power. Those of us there (about 40 or so including some family) did the only thing we could: we gave him a standing ovation. The EMTs put him in their ambulance and headed to the hospital. I had heard about players being hurt while throwing but had never seen it in person before today.

No one would admit it, but losing him deflated us. Berry's scored 7 in the seventh and 4 in the eighth to put the game out of reach. What had started out as a crisp, tense, well-played game ended up a 15-3 rout. Those who care will see that on the website and perhaps in tomorrow's paper and think we got blown out from the get-go. There is texture to this story and I wanted to write about that.

I don't care that we lost. My heart goes out to John. This is not like a sprain or an ache, this is serious. I love playing baseball and it would tear me up to learn I could no longer do it. I sincerely hope that is not in John's future, and that we see him on a baseball diamond very soon.

Game Reflections - #46 vs Mariners

2011-05-21T23:58:00.000-07:00

First, a correction: Yesterday I said Ryan Ludwick's ninth inning RBI snapped the Padres' 0-for-19 slump with RISP. That's not true; it was actually 0-for-21. I stand corrected.

On to tonight's game.

Hmmm looking a little gloomy. Foreshadowing?

- Will Venable belted a first-pitch fastball to the wall in dead center. Think he went up there looking for a fastball? You betcha. After that, or perhaps because of that (I really don't believe starter Michael Pineda was able to change his game plan on the fly like that), the Padres saw a steady diet of off-speed stuff early in counts the first time through the order.

Pineda readies for Hudson after striking out Maybin in 7th

- Pineda is indeed a beast, but he really did not command his fastball well until the sixth and seventh innings. He threw sliders with precision whenever he wanted to, though. Show the fastball, fire a slider. Padre hitters were off-balance all night.

- After Venable struck out to end the third inning he flung his helmet with disgust. I feel for ya, Will. It's been a tough year.

- Brad Hawpe cannot catch a high fastball over the plate. He can't. He waved at 94 and 97 MPH fastballs above the belt, middle out, against John Axford on Wednesday night, and he swung through 93 and 96 MPH fastballs off Pineda, same location, tonight in the fourth. If I was a pitcher who could rush it up there that fast, when I got behind I'd just throw that pitch. Hawpe will either foul it off or swing through it.

And he's been one of our best hitters this month. No wonder the Padres struggle to score runs.

- Mariners second baseman Jack Wilson fouled off 5 consecutive pitches in the second inning before hitting a sacrifice fly. A kid in a section near me caught two of them. I've been going to baseball games the better part of 30 years and have never caught a foul ball during the game. This young'un got 2 in less than 3 minutes. Good for you kid.

- Kyle Phillips walked to the plate in the fifth to "Forever Young" by Alphaville. I briefly flashed back to Prom Night. Well played Kyle - you big softie.

- Now the salt for Phillips. You are not Yadier Molina. Why are you trying to pick guys off base? Phillips threw behind the runner at each and every base tonight. He was never close, and his attempt at third in the sixth inning sailed into LF allowing the run to score. That run did not affect the outcome (it was already 3-0 at that point), but what are we trying to do with these throws shorten the runner's secondary lead? Let the infielders do that. Save your arm, and if you must try to pick someone off limit it to first base.

- Two more errors for the Padres tonight. That makes 9 straight games in which they've committed an error. The team record is 10. Hopefully they won't tie it tomorrow.

- Kudos to Pineda for legging out his nubber up the line in the second. After Clayton Richard dropped it, Pineda was able to beat the throw and reach safely. Thus is the old adage reinforced: Never give up on a play.

- Obviously Richard did not have his best stuff. Recent call-up Mike Wilson had 2 hits and 2 RBI before the third inning ended; he came in 1-for-11. Richard worked a lot of 3-ball counts - 5 to the first 12 hitters he faced - as he struggled with his command. He was gone after 5 having thrown 100 pitches.

- Seven consecutive Padres (and 8 of 9) struck out between Ludwick's pop up to end the sixth and Headley's soft single with one out in the ninth. The seven straight happened off 3 different pitchers (starter Pineda, then David Pauley (who struck out the side) and Jamey Wright).

- Padres went 0-for-6 with RISP tonight. They are 1 for their last 28 in those situations.

- Bud Black's post game comments included:

"The first time you face someone the advantage is to the pitcher"
"We thought he threw the ball well"
"I've talked to the players about it. We prepare the same way at home and on the road" (probably in reference to a question about the dichotomy between their offense at home and on the road)
And so on.

- Perhaps the worst news - I didn't get a fan kit. Showed up too late apparently. Crap.

- In reality the worst news: Nick Hundley is 'not even close' to being ready for a rehab assignment, according to Those Who Know. As you recall Hundley went down with a strained oblique muscle. He had cooled off at the plate right before he got hurt after a torrid start. He is a far more dangerous bat than Phillips or Rob Johnson (no offense, fellas), and we need him back with the big club soon.

Finally tonight's stinker stat. The Padres have not won a Saturday Home Game this season (3-1 on the road, 0-4 at home) but that's not the stinky part. The Padres have scored exactly 2 RUNS at home on Saturday. Both of those came off Joe Blanton in the first inning April 23 (a game they lost 4-2 in 11). Yikes.

Padres get the reigning AL Cy Young winner tomorrow as they try and avoid the sweep. Then they get the NL Central leading St Louis Cardinals for 3. It does not get any easier.

Game Reflections - #45 vs Mariners

2011-05-20T23:46:00.000-07:00

Ah the opening game of the annual series against our 'Ancient Rival'. This one had an interesting ending. Some notes, in no particular ord.

- I have no idea how Cameron Maybin missed Kennedy's sinking line drive in the second inning. @leftcoastbias and I discussed it for a bit, and came to the conclusion he lost it in the lights. That really is the only explanation that makes sense. Maybin tracked that ball all the way past his glove, as it were.

Speaking from some personal experience, when a ball merges into the lights you have two choices. Try to get down so you can still see it, or stick your glove out and hope. Maybin tried both and the ball still eluded him. Tough break.

- The bottom of Seattle's lineup killed Latos. Hitters 1-5: 2-for-18, 2 singles, 2 walks. Hitters 6-9: 6-for-15, 2 2B, 3B, HR, Sac Fly. These 4 hitters drove in all 4 runs. And it's not like Seattle stacked Murderer's Row down there; coming into the game Miguel Olivo, Carlos Peguero, Brendan Ryan, and Eric Bedard came in with OPS+ of 59, 50, 54, and 0 respectively. Latos just could not consistently get them out.

- Olivo sure liked what he saw tonight, with a ground rule double and HR to left-center off Latos. On the double, it looked like Ludwick and Maybin slowed down when he saw each other coming. I don't know if Ludwick had a play, or if Maybin would have had a play had he kept running all out; I think Maybin had the better shot although he came a much longer way. Hard to say from way behind home plate.

- The Mariners got two ridiculous jumps off Latos, both by Kennedy. He had a 2 or three step head-start before the pitch left Mat's hand. On one play he stole second, on the other he scored easily in front of Peguero's triple. I don't remember base stealers getting that good a read on Latos last season.

- Latos worked noticeably more quickly in the sixth. He gave up 2 XBH in the frame, including Olivo's HR. I wonder why he sped things up.

Ludwick's single in the ninth broke an the team's 0-for-19 21 string with RISP. -

- I have no idea what Ludwick was thinking on Cantu's fly ball in the seventh. Why round second on that play? If it's a HR you've got all day to run the bases. If it's a double you've got time to get to third. If it's caught you need to get back. Ludwick made a bad baserunning play there.

- The scoreboard said Denorfia leads the Padres in SLG. He had 78 AB coming into the game. Seemed an odd stat to quote for Denorfia. Ludwick has 178 AB and 8 HR; he's the power leader on the club.

- 3 more double plays tonight, all of which killed potential rallies.

- Bedard struck out 9 tonight. It's the second time he's done that this season. He had not done it since 2007 before 8 May against the White Sox.

- Here's what happened on the Ludwick ball in the ninth. Peguero didn't catch it, and it was ultimately ruled a single. Bartlett, thinking it had been caught, started back to first. He and Ludwick bumped. In the umpires eyes, that meant Ludwick had passed Bartlett. So they called Ludwick out. Bartlett was allowed to go back to second because after Ludwick was ruled out, the force at second was off, and when Kennedy received Franklin 'Death to Flying Things' Gutierrez's throw he didn't tag Bartlett.

Rule 7.08(h) applies.

Initially they ruled that Ludwick was safe and Bartlett out on the force.

All in all a tough game. Seattle completely out-played them on this night. Tomorrow the Padres get to face phenom Michael Pineda I'm looking forward to seeing the kid pitch, although not so much to him shutting down the Padre offense.

One final thing on the Maybin comment from yesterday. A reliable source tells me the Brewers Media Relations person asked the official scorer to take another look at Maybin's single in the seventh inning Thursday. Seems there was a similar play in Wednesday's game on a ball hit by a Brewer that was ruled an error, and the media guy was wondering about the perceived inconsistency. FWIW.

Game Reflections - #44 vs Brewers

2011-05-19T23:33:00.000-07:00

Hmmm. 5 Infielders. Will it work?

Good Grief. Has it really been 15 games since I last saw one live? Wow. Off we go.

Off to a rough start as Aaron Harang walked Corey Hart and allowed a single to Ryan Braun. After Braun stole second, it looked like the Padres would be down early again. But Harang wriggled out of it, getting Prince Fielder to pop to short and Casey McGehee hit back to the box.

We missed part of the first inning while eating at the Hall of Fame Grill inside the Western Metal building. The Nachos were good. Unfortunately for me, something in the chicken set off a nasty case of heartburn which made for a rather uncomfortable next 6 innings. It was not food poisoning; I'm pretty sure it was an allergic reaction. Sucked to be me.

The Brewers would only get one more runner to third, Fielder in the fourth inning, as Harang settled down and worked 8 scoreless innings.

On the other side of the ledger Chris Narveson was as good as Harang. Narveson worked 7 1/3 innings, and the Padres only got 2 runners to third off him (Denorfia in the third, Maybin in the seventh).

Without a lot of offense, this game was quick. 1:45 in we were singing 'Take Me Out To The Ball Game". Milwaukee took Narveson out in favor of Kameron Loe, who worked around McGehee's error.

When I got home I found two tweets from Cameron Maybin expressing some frustration with the official scorer. During the seventh inning, he hit a hard ground ball that McGehee bobbled, and beat McGehee's throw to first. It was ruled an infield single. After the game the official scorer reviewed the play and changed it to E-5. The tweets have since been deleted.

I'm not saying Maybin did anything wrong. It was an emotional moment and I appreciated the candor. I will say that when I saw the play live I thought it was E-5. Maybin is a very fast man, but if McGehee fields that ball cleanly Maybin is out by a step. In my opinion the official scorer got it right after his review. Also, he would not have reviewed the play unless someone asked him to.

Ludwick led off the ninth with a soft single, but the game turned on Black's decision to pinch run for him. I liked the aggressiveness there, playing to win at home. Because of that, Brewer pitcher Marco Estrada spent a lot of time trying to keep Eric Patterson close at first. Pitchout, ball high, then another ball as Patterson stole second. With a 3-0 count on Hawpe the Brewers walked him intentionally.

The rest was predictable. Maybin laid down a pretty bunt to move the runners over with 1 out. Headley was intentionally walked to load the bases. Kotsay came in from left to play the infield, but it didn't matter as Orlando Hudson hit the first pitch he saw to right, driving Hart back and plenty deep enough to score Patterson from third.

A nice win and a series split with Milwaukee. The Padres are now 1-0-2 in their last 3 series, their best stretch of the season, after splitting 2 game sets with Arizona and the Brewers. They open the Inter-league portion of the scheduel tomorrow when Seattle comes to town.

We did a Podcast tonight. It's short - 19 min long - but it can be found here.

A Winning Streak

2011-05-17T07:15:00.000-07:00

Two in a row is a trend. Three straight is a winning streak. The Padres finally have a 2011 winning streak.

After losing two straight in Milwaukee (and getting slapped around a bit early in the 8-6 loss last Tuesday) the Padres have been doing the slapping. Yes they lost the first game in Colorado 12-7, but over their last 5 games those 7 runs are the fewest they've scored. Here's today's obscure stat: this streak matches the franchise record for consecutive games in which San Diego has scored 7 or more runs. The last time they did it was April 1996. The first time they did it was April 1979.

Even more encouraging than the offense finally rising from the dead is the last starts from Mat Latos and Clayton Richard. For the first time this season both looked like the pitchers they were last year. When the Padres pitch to their ability, and hit a little bit, they are a formidable opponent. Just take a look at last year.

All of that is good news. The icing on this cake becomes the Padres leaving the NL West basement for the first time since April 17. Thank you Armando Galarraga.

That this offensive surge started on the road has reignited complaints about Petco Park and this team's offensive production at home. The standard slash lines bear out a significant split: .206/.288/.317 at Petco, .265/.331/.379 on the road. However take a look at these numbers:

Petco Park: 29 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR to date by the Padres
Road: 29 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR through last night's game.

That's a wash people. The Padres problems winning at home in 2011 is not due to an inability to drive the ball downtown. The issue is their OBP at home is 50 points lower than on the road. They have 40 fewer HITS at home than on the road. Sorry, but that's not solely because our ballpark knocks down balls hit in the air.

I am doing a much more detailed look at the Padres offense in Petco. I hope to have that completed just after Memorial Day (if not sooner).

Padres go for the sweep tonight, and their first consecutive series wins of the season. I also have a Podcast tonight. Hope to hear from you.

Hundley to DL, Phillips Called Up

2011-05-06T17:30:00.000-07:00

Padres announced today they have put Nick Hundley on the 15-day DL retroactive to yesterday (5 May). The team called up Kyle Phillips from their AA affiliate in San Antonio.

Hundley suffered a right oblique strain. He started Wednesday's 7-4 loss to the Pirates but came out of the game after a seventh-inning at bat where he struck out. It is unclear from the Padres Press Release if he initially tweaked his oblique earlier in the game or did it during this at-bat, where he swung the bat twice (first fouling off a pitch, then swinging and missing). It could partially explain the bad throw he made in the third inning when he attempted to force Andrew McCutchen at second following Xavier Paul's swinging bunt.

Hundley had been the Padres best hitter in the early going, but since his mini four-game hitting streak was snapped on 21 April he's been in a 5-for-36 funk, with 2 doubles and 0 HR.

Phillips was acquired from Toronto in a 25 June 2010 trade for a player to be named later (and I was unable to find out who it was after searching through the mlb.com archive). He last played in the majors in 2009 with Toronto.

The Padres also shifted Jerrett Hoffpauir from the 15-day to the 60-day DL with a strained right quadriceps.

Information in this post was provided by the Padres Media Relations staff at 1604

Hudson to DL, Forsythe Recalled

2011-05-04T14:38:00.000-07:00

Hudson exits Tuesday's game (AP/Larry Ignelzi)

Orlando Hudson pulled up lame last night rounding second base in the first inning. We all held our breath, hoping he'd only be out a few days.

Not so much. The Padres announced this afternoon they were placing Hudson on the 15-day DL due to the strained right hamstring, and recalling Logan Forsythe from AAA-Tucson.

I was wondering what the long-term solution would be if Hudson went down, because Eric Patterson is an outfielder by trade. Now we know. Losing Hudson puts a crimp in the Padre running game (he led the team with 10 steals), as well as the infield defense. Although I'm sure Jason Bartlett is OK with no butt-slapping for a few weeks around the bag at second.

When Forsythe enters a game for the first time it will be his ML debut. He was the 46th pick in the 2008 Amateur Draft (supplemental round). This season in Tucson he was 25-for-86 with 4 HR, 15 RBI, and 2 steals.

Welcome to the club, Logan Forsythe.

The Padres also announced transferring Joe Thatcher from the 15 to 60 day DL following exploratory surgery on his left shoulder.

Information in this post was taken from the Padres Media Announcement released at 1:41 today.

Game Reflections - #29 vs Pirates

2011-05-02T23:17:00.000-07:00

Just returned from tonight's Padres/Pirates tilt at Petco. Some thoughts on the 4-3 Padres loss:

- Great idea by San Diego to honor the military by wearing the camouflage uniforms. The team usually invites all active duty and veterans in the crowd to stand and be recognized prior to the start of every game, and did so again tonight; but the cheers from the 20,456 in attendance were a little louder than normal. The MLB 9-11 logo was also displayed on monitors throughout the ballpark during the introductions.

- Tonight's National Anthem was sung a capella and frankly, it was appropriate to do it that way. We should not celebrate that a man, even an enemy, is dead; we should remember those no longer with us because of the evil that man brought into the world.

- Whatever Aaron Harang brought with him to the mound to start the game, he should forget it. Every ball hit in play by Pittsburgh in the top of the first was a bullet. The Garrett Jones HR was a no-doubter into the RF corner, and Chris Snyder's was hammered out to left. After a half-inning to regroup, he allowed a measly infield single in his remaining 4 innings.

- Brad Hawpe made a nice play on a ground ball up the line off Jones' bat. It was eerily similar to the ball Martin Prado hit on Wednesday that Hawpe missed. Nice to see him make that play.

- Jorge Cantu's HR in the sixth was also smashed. Amazing how when the weather heats up the ball carries better at Petco, no? His 2-run shot cut the lead in half.

- Ryan Ludwick had 2 hits, and both those balls were scorched. His second hit drove in San Diego's third run.

- A little bit of comedy in the top of the eighth inning when both Hundley and Cantu missed foul balls off the bat of Jones (that man again). Comedy because Hundley disappeared into the Pirates dugout, and Cantu flopped over into the camera well. Luckily no one was hurt, and in fairness given where they came down both were tough plays.

- San Diego was mesmerized by an opposing pitcher in their own ball park again. Other than the HR to Cantu, Pittsburgh starter James McDonald scattered 4 hits and struck out 5 in his 6 innings of work.

- The top of the ninth took for-EVER. Frieri walked the first 3 hitters he faced, and Gregerson (who relieved him) walked the first guy HE faced, but thanks to Lyle Overbay being caught stealing after his leadoff walk the Padres were able to wriggle off the hook without allowing a run.

- Some smart aleck decided to start the "whoOP! WHooo" chant when Pittsburgh reliever Chris Resop was warming up, and continued it once Resop entered the game. Eventually most of the ballpark joined in. It didn't hurt the chant that the Padres scored their third run with Resop in the game.

- Pittsburgh has the best bullpen ERA in the NL coming into tonight's game. I had not realized their bullpen had been pitching that well so far in 2011.

- Thanks to consecutive hits by Nick Hundley and Chase Headley, the Padres got runners to the corners with two out in the bottom of the ninth. But Will Venable hit the first pitch he saw to short, and that ended the game.

We've been beaten down a bit both by the Padres slow start and their struggles on offense. I think I re-emphasize the obvious when I say San Diego badly needed last Thursday's day off. Since their attempted ninth-inning comeback on Friday in Los Angeles that fell short, the Padres have started hitting the ball much better. Tonight every starting position player except Cameron Maybin had a hit. That's encouraging. Maybe the days of feeble offense and lots of shutouts are behind us for a while.

One can only hope.

Game Reflections - #25 vs Braves

2011-04-29T10:49:00.000-07:00

Although a couple of days time-late, let's go through Wednesday's game against Atlanta. (Note: I was under the weather the last 2 days, which explains why no post).

1. The Padres managed to get the leadoff man on just twice - Orlando Hudson's infield single in the fifth, and Ryan Ludwick's walk to start the ninth. Neither runner advanced past second. Bud Black talked all winter and during spring training about being more aggressive on the base paths, but it is hard to be aggressive when there's no one on early in the inning.

It's also hard to be aggressive when guys either get forced at second or erased via the double play.

San Diego also only managed one runner as far as THIRD. That happened with two out in the sixth. After Will Venable stole second, Rob Johnson struck out swinging on a full count, ending the threat.

2. Credit should be given to Tyler Hanson for being dominant on this day - 10 strikeouts along with 4 hits (all singles) and a walk. That said, not every pitcher the Padres have faced this season is Cy Young. At what point does one draw the line between saying 'oh, that guy was really on today' and 'we just can't hit, and it makes every opposing starter we face look that much better'?

3. Let's look at the positive out of this game for a moment. Mat Latos got beat up pretty good in the first two innings (more on the second inning later). After Brian McCann's double driving in Atlanta's sixth run of the game, Latos retired 10 of the last 11 hitters he faced - 4 by strikeout, 4 via ground ball. That's encouraging. Latos has been killed this season by leaving the ball up. If it clicked after the double that is very good news.

Remember, he struggled last season coming out of the gate. Only after he got torched by the Marlins in Florida did he right himself and become the dominant pitcher he was from May - August.

4. Brad Hawpe's error ultimately became the key play in the game. If he makes the play on Martin Prado's grounder, Latos is out of the inning, the score is still 1-0, and the possibilities are endless. After the error the Braves went single/triple/double and blew the game open. Padres fans at the game rode Hawpe the rest of the afternoon, sarcastically cheering after every play he made and booing him after every out he hit into.

Hawpe is struggling. No one hits .143 at the major league level without struggling at lot at the plate, and I'm sure Hawpe is painfully aware of his trouble offensively. Booing him won't help. That said, I completely understand why fans booed him Wednesday. It is their right as fans to voice their displeasure when players (or umpires, for that matter) aren't performing up to par. Just don't expect Hawpe to suddenly snap out of it because he heard booing from the normally laid-back San Diego crowd.

------------------------------

Two other items worth mentioning:

1. The Padres announced Thursday the return of the $5 discount when purchasing Padres tickes online through Padres.com. From the press announcement:

Padres President and COO Tom Garfinkel made the announcement.

"The $5 online discount originated last year in an effort to increase both affordability and convenience for Padres fans," Garfinkel said. "It was incredibly popular, and our fans repeatedly told us they saw great value in the offer, so we decided to bring it back again for a limited time this year."

The $5 online discount is available now exclusively at padres.com, and is valid for all games on all tickets normally priced $13.50 or more. The promotion excludes PETCO Park's All-You-Can-Eat seats, and may not be used in conjunction with other discounts or promotions, including 2-for-1 Tuesdays, presented by Coca-Cola. Go to http://www.padres.com/ to take advantage of the limited-time offer.

Yes, a naked attempt to bolster flagging attendance, but $5 off is $5 off.

2. The Padres Trail Podcast returned last night. You can hear the episode here, or also through iTunes - just search for either 'SMS_Mike' or 'Padres Trail Podcast'.

Game Reflections - #21 vs Phillies

2011-04-23T20:52:00.000-07:00

Looks like someone didn't know where the end of their car was in the MTS lot

While waiting for the fans to disperse a little bit (paid attendance - 40038), some quick thoughts on tonight's game.

Padres were much more aggressive in the first inning than I remember them being recently. Maybin single, Bartlett triple highlighted the frame. With a run in, runners on the corners, and Hundley up it looked very good they'd blow Blanton off the mound immediately. Didn't happen that way, unfortunately, as their hitting funk reared its head again (tap to the mound, fly out, strikeout).

Hoffman HAS to send Bartlett in that situation. The team is struggling to score runs, send the guy. Let's make THEM make a play instead of us always having to. (Update: Ted Mendenhall pointed out during the Padres Post-Game show that some of the blame should fall on Orlando Hudson. After all, he showed no inclination to go on that fly ball, and had the play entirely in front of him. I find that an accurate assessment.)

Someday Ludwick will stop swinging at the low and away pitch off the plate. I hope I'm alive to see it.

Stauffer pitched his rear end off, tying a career high with 7K's tonight.

I thought the ball Pete Orr hit in the sixth was fair live and in person. Not sure why the umpire hesitated on that call, although he had a better vantage point than I did. Then, tough luck on the ball Rollins hit, as it skipped through the infield for a single that tied the game.

Gregerson/Adams/Bell - lights out as usual.

Bastardo is a beast. That's two games this series he's come in and completely shut down the Padres.

After Hundley's double to break the 1-1 tie, the Padres managed 2 hits the rest of the way. Can't do that in a close game and expect to win.

Hawpe's at bat in the eleventh was his best at bat of the night by far. He finally started laying off the outside pitches he's been waving at. Disturbing for me to see is that he can't catch up with the high fastball at all. He's been swinging through them all year. No wonder he's constantly pitched up there by the opposition.

Ludwick's 2 hits in this game equal the total number of hits he had on the last homestand. Maybe he actually is breaking out of his slump.

Finally, the big decision of the game - yes the game was decided by 1000 little things before Bud Black directed Rollins be intentionally walked in front of Ryan Howard. Yes Howard had struck out 4 times in this game and (I believe) 9 times in the series. Howard is too elite of a player to insult like that. If he'd walked Rollins to face Howard with Gregerson or Adams or Bell on the mound I'd been really OK with it. But with Cory Luebke - a second season guy who's only been in the majors for 2 months now - that's a tall order.

Still, it reinforced how this is a game of inches. Howard missed a 3-R jack by about 4 feet. Ludwick missed catching that ball and ending the inning by about 1 foot. If Ludwick makes that play - which was very difficult, let me assure you - we're still playing.

Padres try to avert the sweep tomorrow. Facing Roy Halladay that's a very tall order.

Game Reflections - Game #19 Vs Phillies

2011-04-22T10:20:00.000-07:00

Went to 2/3 of the game last night. We left after 6 1/3 innings (a) to beat traffic, and (b) because you can only sit through so much offensive futility. Some impressions.

1. I tweeted last night about 'another SD home game, Padres no-hit through 3 again." That's not entirely correct. What is true is the Padres have gone hitless the first time through the order twice, and I've been in the ballpark on both occasions. Including last night's home game, the Padres have gotten their first hit of the game:

First inning - twice
Second inning -four times
Third inning - once
Fourth inning - once
Fifth inning - once

2. Last night was an interesting one from a fashion perspective. I should have taken a picture or some video of the ladies in question, but I walked to my seat behind 4 young women wearing some of the tightest jeans I've yet seen - and platform heels to boot. EVERY guy they walked past turned around to look, so I guess their clothing choices had the intended effect.

3. It becomes frustrating to watch our offense routinely unable to either drive runners in from third, or to hit for extra bases. It becomes even more frustrating to watch opposing teams come in and hit the crap out of the ball. I'm am beginning to believe part of the problem with the Padres is psychological. They continually hear about this ballpark and how it is a pitcher's park, and how you can't hit the long ball here. Whether or not you believe it, it eventually seeps into your consciousness. Other NL teams don't have to listen to that over and over again about their home ballpark, or about the park they come into. They just hit; and seem to have better results in San Diego than the Padres do.

4. This team really misses Jerry Hairston Jr. How many times did we see him come to the plate last year, with the team down early, and hit a home run or start a rally? From a perspective with no access to the clubhouse, it seems his leadership helped steady the 2010 Padres. I don't see any evidence that type of leadership is present on this team. Every 3 run deficit feels like game over; there's no sense the Padres can claw their back into those games.

Case in point - leading off the fourth Jorge Cantu had a 14-pitch at bat. He eventually struck out, but it felt like a moral victory. You know you're offense is struggling when a 14-pitch strike out feels like a victory.

5. Cameron Maybin flat-out misplayed Ben Francisco's HR ball. I initially thought he just backpedaled into the CF wall, but after seeing the replay he took a good route to the ball. It seemed live he had no idea how close to the wall he was when he was trying to catch the ball. If he jumps that's an out.

Ludwick? Overran it, but Polanco was out a third and the blue blew the call. Denorfia? Looked like he lost it in the lights initially, because he didn't break on the ball at all.

Padres try again tonight - Richard vs Hamels.

I did have a Podcast last night - it can be heard here. Two errata to correct from the discussion - I said last night was the fourth time the Padres had been shut out, that's wrong; I forgot about their Monday shutout at the hands of the Cubs. I also said last night was the first time someone other than Moseley had been shut out, and that's also wrong; Tim Stauffer started that same game Monday. The Astro/Padre game I reference during the show happened on July 2, 2010, and indeed ended 3-0.

Game Cancelled, Padres to play two

2011-04-19T15:16:00.000-07:00

From the Padres media relations staff, tonights Padres/Cubs game has been postponed to tomorrow. Weather reports from Chicago are forecasting thunderstorms, rain (probably the freezing kind) and temps in the mid-30s.

Tomorrow will be much better, overcast and a high of 43. Because we must not deprive ownership of gate receipts, there will be a day/night double header. First game at 11:20 pacific time, second game at 4:05.

If there is any problem with the scheduling philosophy as it currently stands, it is the one trip per year to cities outside our division. Any hiccup in the schedule puts teams in a bind. Either they do everything possible to get the games in as scheduled, or they make sure the games are played within the dates scheduled, or risk a losing an off-day later in the season so they can fly back in for one game.

all in the name of the unbalanced schedule. Interleague does not help, but the unbalanced schedule is the culprit.

No word if Moseley will still start tomorrow. I suspect he will.

Last I'm flying back I into town late tonight, so the Tuesday Podcast will be cancelled.

Splitsville

2011-04-18T07:30:00.000-07:00

The Padres first come-from-behind win happened on Opening Day in St Louis. They were not able to do it again until last Wednesday vs the Reds. Sunday they made it 3 wins in their last 5 games, and two of the come-from-behind variety, with the 8-6 win in Houston.

Before Sunday's win I was sure the only game San Diego would take in Houston was the one JA Happ started, because he's on my fantasy team. It's been that kind of season so far for the kid. It was nice to see some other fantasy owner suffer this week as well.

The last 5 games the Padres have scored 3, 0, 4, 3, and 8 runs. The previous 5 hey had scored 2, 0, 7, 2, and 2 runs. 18 runs the last 5, 13 the previous five. I'll call that progress, even if 4 of those games were played in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park.

So it's off to Chicago and the Cubs.

I'll look to make these posts longer as the season goes, and include some actual analysis. Right now I'm just trying to get back into the blogging groove.

Playing Catch Up

2011-04-16T09:55:00.000-07:00

A little bit of free time appeared this morning, so let's play a little catch-up.

First the Podcast has returned! The latest two 30 minute episodes can be heard here and here. With the depth of offensive woes the Padres were experiencing at the time of both shows, I did focus on that. But I did cover other things. Give the 2 shows a whirl.

On Thursday's show I speculated that the lack of run support Dustin Moseley has gotten in his first three starts was historic. Thanks to the good folks in Media Relations with the club, we have an answer. They checked with the Elias Sports Bureau, and

The last time a starting pitcher's team was shut out in each of his first three starts to begin a season was in 2008 when the Detroit Tigers were blanked in each of Kenny Rogers' first 3 starts. Before Rogers, the last pitcher with no run support in his first three starts was Rudy May for the 1972 California Angels

Two times in the last 40 years demonstrates just how rare what has happened to Moseley is. It is a historical anomaly that the last two pitchers hung out to dry like this were left-handed. So it's been over 40 years since a righty experienced this level of no run support pain.

After Ryan Ludwick struck out Thursday night to end the eighth, I thought he and Moseley needed to start a support group to deal with failure. Ludwick could spend 10 minutes bemoaning his loss of hitting ability. Moseley could respond by slapping Ludwick around for 10 minutes, screaming HOW ABOUT SCORING SOME RUNS FOR ME JACKASSES?!?!?!

Speaking of Ludwick, he finally snapped his 0-for-the-season with runners in scoring position with a 2-RBI single in the seventh last night, snapping a 1-all tie. There was a report via Twitter (I believe Corey Brock sent the note) that Ludwick discovered he was too hunched over at the plate, and has straightened up so he can see the ball better. One wonders how long his batting stance has been tweaked, and if that's been the issue with his sub-.200 batting average since coming over from St Louis. If he now goes on a tear with the bat, we will know.

One other thing to consider: Ludwick temporarily snapped out of his funk last year when Bud Black dropped him to the bottom third of the order. This team needs Ludwick in the middle of the lineup; I hope the source of his troubles is not the pressure he puts on himself to perform as a 3-4-5 hitter (and before you remind me he hit in middle of the order with the Cardinals, he had some guy named Pujols carrying the majority of the load there).

More good news: the Padres have won 2 out of 3 for the first time since their first series of the year. They look to keep the momentum going this weekend.

Nice Start

2011-04-04T14:52:00.000-07:00

Yeah the Cardinals have tortured San Diego over the last decade. I'm not talking about just the 3 NLDS losses to those guys, where San Diego dropped 9 of the 10 games played. Since the start of the 2006 season St Louis was 14-4 in Missouri against the Padres. This includes the infamous rain-delayed Sunday game in 2008 when Colby Rasmus hit a 3-run bomb to stun Heath Bell and the Padres.

Nothing ever seems go to right at Busch. Which is why winning this Opening Weekend series was so sweet. San Diego has not won the season series from the Cardinals since 2006, which incidentally was the last time the Padres won a series in St Louis. In fact the Padres had won 2 series there the last FOURTEEN YEARS until this weekend. Here's a little tidbit: the last 3 times San Diego has won a series at Busch the Padres have made the playoffs.

I'm not telling the Front Office to start printing those ducats, but that's a nice early sign for the season to come isn't it?

We all know how important Ryan Ludwick is to the 2011 team, and the Padres could not have picked a better park for the season to start off in than Busch. Ludwick's history there is well-known; if there's one place on this earth to get his confidence high early in the season it's in St Louis. Ryan's 2 for 10 line might look a lot like last fall, but his 3 walks mean his batter's eye has returned, and he hit several balls hard during the series, albeit it in tough luck (most notably the sixth inning Sunday).

We wondered how the offense would look. San Diego scored 16 runs in the series. Yes they got shut out yesterday, but they still scored 16 runs in the series.

Most importantly, the pitchers held up their end of the bargain. The team limited St Louis to 8 runs total, and held Pujols to 1 RBI (and 2-13 overall). Dustin Moseley pitched far, far better than I expected he would; he pitched well enough to win, but Cardinal starter Jamie Garcia was just a little bit better.

That's a lot of reasons to be happy with a 2-1 start to the season. Now the Padres come home to face the Giants, Dodgers, and Reds on their first homestand of the season. I'll be at the game tomorrow, hope you are too.

Programming Note: Tuesday's Podcast will be cancelled. Following the game I have an 8:40 softball game, so there' s no way I'll be in any shape to prattle on for 30 minutes. We'll pick up again on Thursday.

Season Starts Today

2011-03-31T13:03:00.000-07:00

Padres open in St Louis today in about 15 minutes. I apologize for not posting at all these past 2 months, that should rectify itself once the season starts. I've got a Podcast scheduled for tonight, so we can talk about the game then too.

New Podcast Schedule

2011-02-08T19:50:00.000-08:00

We're here in New England again, which means cell phone reception is spotty at best. It also means our normal time slot for the Podcast would be 1am Eastern time, and that's just crazy. You gotta sleep sometime.

This week was also to be the inaugural Tuesday podcast, but, and I'm sure this comes as no surprise to some, I've cancelled that show.

Thursday's show is on, but will be at 8PM PACIFIC, so plan accordingly. Seriously - we want to hear from you in the chat room.

Baseball Digest and Podcasts

2011-02-03T17:06:00.000-08:00

A quick hitter.

Baseball Digest has been doing a birthday post each day during the off-season. Recently I started contributing to those posts. My second one is up today on former Tigers pitcher Joe Coleman.

There will be a Podcast tonight, the first 30 min version, at 10pm PST. Feel free to stop by.

Lastly, and sadly, Mr. David Nuffer, who spoke at Saturday's SABR meeting passed away this morning. He will be missed.

Ted Williams Chapter SABR Day Recap

2011-01-31T07:00:00.000-08:00

My wife and I attended yesterday's Ted Williams Chapter SABR meeting. It was, as always, a great forum and there was a lively discussion. The meeting started at 0900 and ran until at least 1300; she and I had to leave to relieve our baby sitter, otherwise we would have stayed for the entire program.

John Ingham gave a talk on an article he recently wrote about the 1967 Pirates. The 1966 Pittsburgh team finished 22 games over .500 and 3 games behind the Dodgers for the NL title. Many pundits thought all the Pirates needed was improvement at third and in the rotation, which they thought they achieved through trade in the off-season, most notably by acquiring Maury Wills from Los Angeles.

That 1967 edition didn't fare nearly as well as expected, finishing at .500, 20 1/2 games behind the Cardinals. Mr. Ingham went on to say the team was reported by contemporary press as 'wracked with dissention' in the clubhouse, which likely contributed to their poor performance on the field, and what he thought contributed to that dissention. I will not give away his thoughts - the article is under consideration for publication at NINE, a journal of baseball history and culture published by the University of Nebraska Press - but I will tell you his thesis centers around three large personalities. Roberto Clemente, Wills, and manager Harry 'The Hat' Walker. It was quite interesting.

On an unrelated subject, I finally got some insight why Joe Morgan was traded from Houston to Cincinnati (Walker landed as manager there after being fired by Pittsburgh during the 1967 season), and I look at the famous Juan Marichal/Johnny Roseboro brawl in a new way.

Next we heard from David Nuffer, a Ernest Hemingway buff. One might wonder what place a Hemingway discussion has in a baseball forum. Aside from this being a learned group (yes, shameless intellectual promotion there), Hemingway was a bit of a baseball fan. According to Nuffer, he played baseball in high school, and while living in Cuba built a makeshift baseball field on his estate for the local boys to use. In fact, one of those boys became his majordomo, and eventually published a memoir of those days titled Hemingway's Cuban Son.

Nuffer is a man of some local fame; apparently he held up signs behind the first base dugout back in the Jack Murphy days. He is a character, pulling out a card which had a herald piece on it, and saying after it finished "I need a proper introduction." I would have liked to have known him when he was younger and not wheelchair bound.

Anyway he talked about The Old Man and The Sea, one of Hemingway's great works. In the pages of that novel there are 7 references to baseball, and embedded in those passages are 9 references to Joe DiMaggio - 'the Great Dimaggio', as the old man calls him. Finally he concluded by reading from the only poem Hemingway is known to have written, called 'The Opening Game' (1912). A great presentation; it was worth making the drive to Petco just to hear him speak.

After the break, Geoff Young took the podium, yes Geoff Young of Ducksnorts fame. Now I am a fairly frequent reader of Ducksnorts, but to show you how out of it I have been these past months I did not know he was speaking at this meeting before he stepped to the mike. It also took me a minute to realize who he was. Geoff summarized his research of great pitchers duels of of the last 90 years, which he had previously published over at The Hardball Times last fall. Geoff's defined a great pitchers duel as a game where both starters posted a Game Score (as invented by Bill James) of 95 or higher.

There have been six such games, but none since 24 Sept 1971. Ironically, that last game involved the Padres, and took place in old San Diego Stadium. As luck would have it, one of the 32 people in attendance at our meeting was also at that particular game. So we got the benefit of hearing about it from a historical/research perspective, and from an eyewitness perspective. Cool.

It was icing on the cake I was able to meet Geoff at this event. I would have liked to talked longer but for the time crunch we were under. Also, I have to admit to placing foot in mouth; a question was asked why there were no such duels since 1971, and I attempted to add on by saying a 95 game score would require a perfect game with 15 strikeouts. Actually a 9-inning perfect game with 6 K's would get a 95 game score. Math is hard.

Next Padres VP and Assistant General Manager Jason McLeod came down to talk to us. The Padres have been wonderfully accommodating to our requests that someone in the front office talk to us. Paul DePodesta, Josh Stein, and Chris Long have all made appearances at our January meeting to talk a little baseball and give us some insight into how they do their jobs (so if you haven't circled the Saturday of the week before the Super Bowl on your calendar, do so).

McLeod gave a brief introduction on his history in the game: Played HS ball, drafted by the Astros, got an internship with the Padres in community relations, ended up in the Padres scouting department, then off to Boston, now back. He then spent the next 40 minutes or so answering questions. Some highlights:

It's relatively easy to evaluate a player's talent, and develop some idea of what he will become. It's far, far harder to determine if the kid has it mentally. By mentally, he meant how will he handle adversity, the sudden riches, being away from home for an extended period of time, and so on. Interviewing prospects at home is a much bigger part of scouting than I thought.
He considers the amateur draft the most important day of the year, because teams choose who they bring into the organization. Having a bad draft can set a franchise back two, three, or several years. Look at Pittsburgh.
Jason gave his thoughts on the Karsten Whitson debacle (well, what would you call it?). He basically confirmed what we've heard - the team had an agreement with the family before the draft, and that evening the family stated there was no agreement and the price had gone up.
He talked about the Winter Development Program the Padres did this season. First time this franchise has done something like it; it's something he learned from Boston. Nineteen of the team's top prospects spent 10 days in San Diego, receiving some on-field instruction but mostly educational topics. Like how to mentally approach the game, what it means to be a Padre, that sort of thing. McLeod rattled off a who's who of Padres that came to speak to these kids - Dave Roberts, Mark Loretta, Dave Winfield, Trevor Hoffman, Tony Gwynn.
When asked about foreign players and scouting them, he had some funny comments about the Japanese posting system. But he did talk briefly about India, Europe, and China as areas of the world teams are looking to for baseball talent.
San Diego has the top baseball facility in the Dominican Republic.
He was asked if any studies had been done between pitchers of today, and those workhorses of yester-year, using MRIs to image shoulders and see what made the old timers so durable. He was intrigued by the question. He did say most ML pitchers have structural damage in their shoulder simply from throwing a baseball over and over again (even if their mechanics are perfect, they will damage their shoulders).
San Diego will get Pick #9A (compensation for Whitson) this year, so the 10th pick. They will also get 3 compensation picks (loss of 3 Type B free agents). So, they have 5 of the first 60 picks. A golden opportunity to restock the farm system.
He was also asked about knuckleballers (how to evaluate), how he would use Red flamethrower Aroldis Chapman (preferred starter, but thought Cincinnati did it right last year), Khalil Greene (out of baseball, no signs he's returning), gave an update on some of the Dominican Republic facility graduates (and he plugged the Lake Elsinore team for 2011 - thinks it will be exciting), discussed Mat Latos' endurance, AND brought along his 2 Boston World Series rings.
Oh yeah, he answered my question about the Boras effect in the minor league draft (not seeing it yet, but everyone knows what Boras' technique is, and you never hear about the kids who turn down the big money on his advice and then are never heard from again).

It was great to have the chance to speak with Jason McLeod, and one can only hope we have a chance to do that again.

The meeting had to speed up at this point. James D. Smith III gave a presentation on 3 umpires, Honest John Kelly, Chet Chadbourne, and Emmet Ashford, summarizing their lives and work in baseball. Mr. Smith is a college professor and gave a very polished presentation. Finally the Chapter presented the results of its "Umpires at Work" project. Seven members of the Chapter, and SABR President Andy McCue, spent the evening of 10 Sept 2010 watching only the umpires while attending a baseball game. Bob Hicks gave a short power point presentation on what they learned during the night, and what he took away from the project. The team observed the crew, then had a chance to meet with two of the umpires, Phil Cuzzi was one of the two, the next morning over breakfast and ask questions. I would have liked to stay and hear the whole thing, but as David Kinney stepped to the microphone we ducked out to head home.

It was a great morning of baseball and well worth the experience for those who attended. I hope you caught a small glimpse of that morning from this summary. Don Norcross of the SD U-T was at the meeting at least through Mr. McLeod's talk; he had not posted a story on the meeting as of 2100 Sunday night, but perhaps he will write about it too.

The Bartlett Deal and Trevor Hoffman

2011-01-12T07:00:00.000-08:00

Padres Trail: The Cutting Edge of commentary on stories at least 24 hours old.

The Padres signed Jason Bartlett to a 2-year deal worth $11 million guaranteed. There is a club option for a third year at $5.5M, with a $1.5M buyout. Cot's Baseball Contracts reports the contract is incentivized, meaning Bartlett may guarantee the third year if he meets certain performance thresholds. They don't tell you what those are sadly. So much for the 'Is Jason Bartlett returning in 2013' meter I was planning to put in the margin.

Assuming both Orlando Hudson and Bartlett play in San Diego for the duration of their contracts, 2011/2012 will be the first 2-year stretch with the same two men playing second and short, respectively, since 2004/2005 (Mark Loretta and Khalil Greene, if you are interested). That's a lot of turnover in the middle infield over the past 5 seasons. No wonder GM Jed Hoyer made it a priority to stabilize the situation at those two positions.

How good of a deal is this? Fangraphs' Eno Sarris discussed it yesterday and thinks the Padres spent wisely. I don't see a reason to disagree with his logic, although how good a signing this is will depend largely on whether Bartlett can remain healthy all season. If, as Sarris supposes, the dramatic decline in his range last season is due to lower body injuries, then hopefully he (and the Padres training staff) can develop a strategy to prevent that.

*************
Trevor Hoffman has officially retired, and has been invited to become a part of the Padre front office for 2011. I didn't realize he is 43 years old. Trevor leaves the game as it's all-time saves leader, and the only man to save 600 games in a career. I would imagine the Padres will retire his number at some point this season.

There are a couple of things I like about how he's handled his departure from the game.

No one-day contract. This always struck me as silly. Great players have already cemented their place in their fan's hearts. Besides, great players have a lot of great highlights, and those highlights showcase the player in the uniform of the team he played on when he was making them. You ever see highlights of Gretzky wearing a St Louis Blues uniform? Of course not - he was only there a couple of months, but also he wasn't the sublime player he was with Edmonton and Los Angeles (heck, even with the New York Rangers he was pretty OK). Hoffman will be shown getting #600 as a Brewer until Mariano Rivera breaks his record. Then his highlight clips will revert to ones from the mid- and late-1990s when he dominated the NL.
Has a plan. How many players leave the league and just play golf until they get restless? Hoffman is interested in the business side of the game, and is looking to find his next niche. Give the Padres credit for allowing him the time to determine where he fits in best.

That's all for now.

You may already know this, but anyway

2011-01-09T21:42:00.000-08:00

I'm doing some research for an article on Randy Jones (which will appear on Wednesday), and discovered something interesting.

- In 1973 Randy Jones was promoted from AA to the majors. He eventually won a Cy Young award (1976).

- In 2002 Jake Peavy was promoted from AA to the majors. He eventually won a Cy Young award (2007).

In 2009 Mat Latos was promoted from AA to the majors. I wonder...

I will be posting more frequently now. Sorry for the long absence.

Orlando Hudson at Second

2010-12-19T07:30:00.000-08:00

Various sources reported on Friday* Orlando Hudson had signed with the Padres to play second base in 2011. San Diego has not confirmed the deal, waiting for the results of the physical before making the formal announcement. According to reports in the San Diego U-T, Hudson signed for 2 years ($4M in 2011, $5.5M in 2012), with an $8M option in 2013 (and $2M buyout). It has not yet been stated if the option is club, player, or mutual (at least as far as I have read).

*Note to Jed Hoyer - can you PLEASE make these types of moves known on Thursday morning instead of Friday morning? Help a poor lonely Podcast host out. Throw me a bone, man.

Most of the reporting on this trade has highlighted Hudson's defensive ability. That, coupled with the trade for Jason Bartlett (agreed to during the winter meetings last week but only finalized yesterday), and the acquisition of Cameron Maybin earlier this off-season, make the Padres a better defensive team up the middle than in 2010.

Or does it? I've already looked at Maybin vs Tony Gwynn Jr. Let's look at the new players in comparison to who they're replacing.

For this evaluation I'm only going use Dewan Plus/Minus. Ultimate Zone Rating is also a good defensive metric, and can be found on Fangraphs. In 2010 Hudson was one of the best second basemen in the league, saving 17 runs. His plus/minus ratings are staggering:

Ground balls: +5 to his right, +3 straight on, +10 to his left for a total of +18.
Pop-ups/Fly Balls: +4.

In comparison, David Eckstein and Jerry Hairston Jr played the majority of innings at second for the Padres.

Eckstein: Ground balls -1/+3/-3, Pop-ups/Fly Balls +5.
Hairston Jr: Ground Balls +3/+4/-4, Pop-ups/Fly Balls -1.

If he plays to his 2010 level Orlando Hudson is a significant upgrade defensively at second.

Jason Bartlett played for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010 By Dewan, he saved 5 runs over the course of the season. Here's his plus/minus numbers.

Ground balls: -7 right, -5 straight on, +12 left. Dewan made him +1 on ground balls.
Pop-ups/Fly Balls: +5

San Diego employed a shortstop by committee approach last season. Hairston, Everth Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada played most of the innings there in 2010. Let's look at their numbers.

Hairston: Ground balls +2/+1/+3; Pop-ups/Fly Balls -3.
Cabrera: +2/+1/-8; +2.
Tejada: +2/+1/+1; -2.

At short it's a lot more murky. Hairston Jr and Tejada actually fielded ground balls better than Bartlett did last season. Bartlett was by far the best of this group chasing down balls in the air. Hairston Jr is still a free agent, but Tejada signed with San Francisco in November. In that light, Bartlett is a much better option at short than Cabrera.

Conclusion
The Padres have improved defensively at second base. Their new shortstop is about on par with the duo that played most of the innings last year, and their center fielder is a bit worse defensively than Tony Gwynn Jr was. I am not poo-poohing these moves by any means; but I don't think they improve the defense around here as much as some would lead you to believe.

There will be a podcast tonight (12/9)

2010-12-09T19:19:00.000-08:00

There's a lot to talk about this week, don't you think? See you at 10pm. Follow the link below.

Padres Trail Podcast

Who's On First?

2010-12-07T22:34:00.000-08:00

With Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, I naturally assumed the first base job would become Kyle Blanks. He is a natural first baseman and, again assuming he's healthy, is a power bat the 2011 Padres will sorely need. Jed Hoyer, during an interview Monday with Darren Smith, indicated the Padres would look for free agent help at that position. Which begets two questions:

1. Where is Blanks going to play when healthy?
2. What are the Padres' options at first in this market?

Cot's Baseball Contracts has the current list of free agents who play first, age last season in parenthesis:

Garrett Atkins (30), Willy Aybar (27), Russell Branyan (34), Jason Giambi (39), Troy Glaus (33), Nick Johnson (31), Paul Konerko (34), Casey Kotchman (28), Mark Kotsay (34), Jeff Larish (27), Adam LaRoche (30), Derrek Lee (34), Lyle Overbay (33), Carlos Pena (32), Robb Quinlan (33), Jose Ruiz (25), Randy Ruiz (32), Mike Sweeney (36) , Fernando Tatis (35), Jim Thome (39).

That's a lot of guys to pick through. Let's pare it down, first by eliminating everyone over 35, which removes Giambi, Sweeney, Tatis, and Thome. We can eliminate Konerko and Pena as unaffordable for the Padres. We should eliminate guys with significant injury history, so that takes Glaus, Johnson, and Kotsay off. Jose Ruiz is raw with no major league experience; he's not the answer for 2011. That cuts the list in half.

Here are the career slugging percentages for the remaining 10 candidates:

Atkins - .449. Should note he has played half his career at Coors Field, and his slugging is close to 100 points higher at home (.495/.406)
Aybar - .399
Branyan - .490
Kotchman - .392
Larish - .380 in 276 career ML plate appearances
LaRoche - .488
Lee - .498
Overbay - .447
Quinlan - .401
Randy Ruiz - .488, 238 career ML plate appearances

Eliminating everyone slugging below .400 (and Rob Quinlan, who slugged .401) kicks Aybar, Kotchman, Larish, and Quinlan off the list. Six potentials left.

How does one rank these guys? Three righties (Atkins, LaRoche, Ruiz), three lefties (Branyan, Lee, Overbay).

Atkins was designated for assignment by Baltimore 27 June 10. He did not play again in 2010. Fangraphs calculated he was a below-average first baseman (UZR/150 of -13.2), and he's put up negative WAR the last 2 seasons. From his 2006 career highs in every offensive category, he has seen a drop in OBP and SLG for 4 consecutive years. His power has seemingly disappeared.

Branyan started last season with Cleveland and finished it in Seattle. He probably should have been included with the significant injury history, but he probably has the biggest power bat of this group. Branyan has always been a pretty good defensive 1B and put up a 6.0 UZR/150 in 2010. He'll give a team between 0.6 and 3 WAR on a given year. He's left-handed, but he has the power to reach Petco's right field.

LaRoche declined a little bit in 2010 when compared to 2009, but he was solid, hitting 25 HR for the third consecutive year. He graded out at 4.8 UZR/150 and a solid 2.1 WAR.

Lee had a solid 2010 overall, but is on the downslope of his career. He posted a UZR/150 of 2.3 playing for Chicago and Atlanta, and posted a 2.0 WAR.

Overbay hit 20 HR for only the second time in his career last season. He was spectacularly average as a fielder (UZR/150 of 0.1), and posted a 1.5 WAR. As a lefty, he'd probably see his power dry up in Petco.

Ruiz is really a career minor leaguer. He played only 23 innings at first last season. How he would project at Petco is unknown, but I doubt the Padres would take a chance on a 32 year old AAAA player.

Based on those summaries, I think Ruiz, Overbay, and Atkins aren't good options at first. If Hoyer is going to fill first base from without, it seems Branyan, Lee, or LaRoche make the most sense, if they can be enticed into a relatively affordable contract.

Adrian Gonzalez to Boston - OFFICIAL

2010-12-06T07:00:00.000-08:00

tWWL is reporting today the Gonzo trade is final, even though the Red Sox and Gonzalez's people could not agree on a long-term extension.

For those of you holding out hope he stays in SD, I imagine it will take the press conference tomorrow and Adrian holding a Red Sox jersey before you acknowledge he's gone. That said I'm not sure there are many of those folks left. Trading Adrian Gonzalez away has been expected for more than a year now. San Diego could not afford the left-handed first baseman. If they were forced to trade away Jake Peavy and his $16 million dollar a year deal, how where they going to re-sign Gonzo for $20 mil?

2010's almost-run to the post-season only delayed the inevitable. Jed Hoyer could not trade Gonzalez away in July because his club was not only in contention, they were leading the division. How would that look? Giving up your best hitter with two months to go and a 4 game lead? So Gonzalez stayed.

There will probably be comparisons to the fire-sale of the early 1990s. So far this off-season Jon Garland, Yorvit Torrealba, and Miguel Tejada had all left for other teams (LA, not yet signed, and SF, respectively). With those losses this team was to have a difficult time contending. With Gonzalez in the AL East it is pretty near impossible. Ryan Ludwick is going to be awfully lonely in the middle of this order.

For better or worse this will be the trade by which Hoyer is judged as the GM. It's a good thing he and key members of his staff know the Boston minor league system well, because he'd better have gotten excellent value for the fourth-best player in the NL last season (if you go by MVP voting) who is in his prime.

Whatever contract value it is Adrian finally agrees to (be it 8 years, $180M or 6/$120) congratulations to him on the deal. Gonzalez is the best 1B in the history of the San Diego Padres, and will be for some time to come. He's worked hard and his ship has finally come in. I will miss seeing him hit in person and on local TV.

As I close, and in case you're not depressed enough by the trade, here's how I project the 2011 Padre team to look:

1B - Kyle Blanks
2B - Matt Antonelli (speculation only; Eckstein is a free agent and I don't know who else to put here)
3B - Chase Headley
SS - Everth Cabrera (see above, replace 'Eckstein...' with 'Tejada signed with SF')
LF - ~~Chris Denorfia~~ Ryan Ludwick*
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - ~~Ryan Ludwick~~ Will Venable*
C - Nick Hundley

SP: Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, ~~Chris Young (yes I think he re-signs)~~ Aaron Harang**, Cory Luebke.

Think we struggled to score runs in 2010? Just wait.

*This seems the more likely lineup after pondering it last night.
** Spaced the Harang signing.

Bud Black is NL Manager of the Year

2010-11-18T07:42:00.000-08:00

The BBA held it's post-season awards voting during the playoffs, and awarded Bud Black their Connie Mack Award as the best NL Manager in 2010. Yesterday the BBWAA followed suit, naming Black the NL Manager of the Year.

As a baseball observer and Padre partisan, I felt this selection was self-evident. Black took a team that lost 87 games the previous season and moved them within a game of the playoffs, finishing with a 90-72 record. The BBWAA didn't think he had a slam-dunk case based on the voting. I had not considered Dusty Baker as a viable candidate - I expected Bruce Bochy and Bobby Cox to get significant support - but Baker presided over a turnaround almost as big as San Diego's (Cincinnati lost 84 games in 2009 and finished this season 91-71).

Maybe that's because I could never decide if Cincinnati's division championship was a product of their superior play, or St Louis' collapse after 11 August.

At any rate, in the hour before the winners were announced I got into an interesting interchange with a Giants fan on Twitter (SFGiantsUSA) about who deserved to win. First, it was nice to have a reasonable exchange with a Giants fan for once. His argument against Black centered around their performance after 25 August, when the 10-game losing streak started. My counter was Bochy had less to do with the Giants success last season than Brian Sabean did. We argued according to form, perhaps.

But those positions weren't why it was interesting. He asked if Black's perceived success was based on how the Padres were evaluated before the season started, and so why should he get credit because the prognosticators mis-evaluated the Padres (and how strong their pitching was)?

He makes a fair point. Most every Manager of the Year award goes to a guy who is perceived to have gotten his team to over-achieve Who sets the baseline from which that over-achievement is evaluated? The BBWAA, ESPN experts, MLB.com experts, bloggers, and so on. Manager of the Year should go to the man who performed the best regardless of how his team was expected to play. I had not considered that position until he mentioned.

If we discount where everyone thought the Padres would finish (and I think universally they were picked to finish no higher than 4th in the NL West), does Black still deserve the award? I think so, because of the overall talent level he had to work with. Consider:

NL teams averaged 4.33 runs per game. San Diego came in at 4.10. Four teams were worse: New York (4.05), Washington (4.04), Houston (3.77), Pittsburgh (3.62). None of those 4 teams finished above .500 (NY was the closest at 79-83)
San Diego's raw OPS was third worst in the league. Their park adjusted OPS+ was more middle of the pack, but still below the league average. Concurrently, their team wOBA was also thirdworst.
All the above makes sense if you looked at their lineups over the 2010 season. The only guy in the lineup that scared teams day-to-day was Adrian Gonzalez. Miguel Tejada did help after the trade deadline, but still - this was a below average lineup.

San Diego's pitching was superior, especially their bullpen, which made up for the lack of hitting all season. Bud Black did a great job juggling his starting staff (specifically Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia, Chris Young) and aggressively turning over the games to his airtight bullpen.

And his starting staff had holes in it. Kevin Correia never really recovered from the untimely death of his brother. Chris Young started the third game of the season, then didn't pitch again until September. Mat Latos took a 'injury' related 15 days off in July. Wade LeBlanc was effective, then not effective, holding down the #5 job. Jon Garland had a great year statistically but was maddingly erratic for stretches late in the season.

Other teams had issues, sure. SF's lineup had no power in it for the first half of the season. St Louis lost 40% of its rotation in a week and never fully recovered. Philadelphia played 14 total regular season games with their Opening Day lineup. But all those teams had much more margin for error, either because the rest of their roster was talented enough to survive the damage (STL, PHI), or they had the resources to make wholesale changes to their roster (SF, PHI). No other team spent the season with the razor thin margin between success and failure Padres did, and the fact they stayed on the success side of that edge the virtually all season (and returned to it after falling off it in late August) is entirely due to Bud Black.

So no, I don't think pre-season expectations should drive who wins. But I think who did the most with the talent they had should, and Bud Black clearly did. Congratulations Bud Black.

Cameron Maybin to the Padres

2010-11-17T06:30:00.000-08:00

On Saturday last the Padres acquired Cameron Maybin from Florida for "Home Run Ed" Mujica and Ryan Webb. You may have seen this.

The first question I asked myself was why did the Padres trade some of their pitching depth for a guy at a position...where they have a lot of depth already? So I took a look at some numbers.

Maybin has played most of his career, and all his time with Florida, as a centerfielder. It's reasonable to expect the Padres plan to line him up in center for 2011. That means Tony Gwynn Jr, Will Venable, and Chris Denorfia are probably looking for another position to play. How good a CF is Maybin? Well:

By UZR/150 (fangraphs): -4.4 (2010), 13,5 (2009). He played 8 games in 2008 and 15 games in 2007, so too small a sample size to use.
By Dewan plus/minus: -7 (2010), +6 (2009).
By Range factor/9 (baseball reference): 3.11 (2010), 2.70 (2009). League average was 2.59 and 2.60 respectively.

Tony Gwynn?

UZR/150: 32.9, 14.4
Dewan: +23, +19
Range Factor/9: 2.12, 3.03.

Venable has played less than 30 games in center each of the last 3 seasons, so not much data to go on there. Denorfia has played only 1 season with the Padres, and had 50 games in CF, but his UZR/150 is -15.7. Remember that he and Venable were substitutes after Gwynn Jr got hurt, so really this is about Maybin and Gwynn.

Based on the defensive numbers above I would argue Gwynn Jr is a better defensive CF than Maybin. Only Range Factor/9 favors Maybin, which interestingly enough was quoted in the SDUT article announcing Maybin's acquisition:

The 6-foot-3, 210-pound Maybin last season had the highest range factor of any National League center fielder who played at least 70 games. Maybin had a 3.10 score per nine innings. By comparison, Tony Gwynn had a 2.12 score.

Was the trade about improving the offense? Doubtful. For the 2010 season, Maybin's .234/.302/.361 (.299 wOBA) line was not much better than Gwynn Jr's .204/.304/.287 (.276 wOBA). I thought perhaps Maybin would be the leadoff hitter the Padres need to find, but based on that OBP he is no improvement at all.

Over 610 PA Maybin has posted a .246/.313/.380. Over 1054 PA Gwynn Jr has .244/.323/.314. We can say Maybin has more power based on the slugging percentage, but otherwise they are the same hitter. So this isn't about the offense.

Was the trade be about salary? Maybin has just over one year major league service time (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts and my extrapolation), and Gwynn Jr has just over 3. Again according to Cot's, both are arbitration eligible for 2011 (note: I may be reading the data on Cot's wrong, so apologies if I have indeed misinterpreted it). I don't understand how Maybin is arbitration eligible with only 1 year service time, but that is what the data says.

Based on the arbitration status for both, this probably isn't about the salary. Both players have above-average gloves but below-average bats, so their arbitration cases would be very similar.

Maybin is 4+ years younger than Gwynn. Maybe that's what this is about.

Sometimes I wish I had access to the analytical tools the Padres use to evaluate players, because from my perspective, they acquired a new starting center fielder with no appreciable upside from their current starting center fielder.

Complicating things is the Padres already crowded outfield. Besides Gwynn Jr, Venable, and Denorfia, San Diego also has OF Kyle Blanks, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Cunningham, Luis Durango, and Scott Hairston to choose from (and what about Matt Stairs?) Clearly the club can't carry all those players, so someone or several someones are not going to be playing in SD next season. If I was a betting man, I'd suspect Gwynn Jr, Hairston, and Stairs are gone, Blanks goes back to first base, Cunningham to the minors, and the Padres keep Ludwick, Venable, Durango and Denorfia.

Chris Young, Ted Simmons, Podcasts, and Transitions

2010-11-09T08:49:00.000-08:00

Hey it's been a week since our last post. Some catch-up, and an announcement.

- Padres declined Chris Young's option for 2011. The club would have paid him $8.5M for next season. This move comes as no surprise, and Young was quoted last week saying he'd like to come back as a Padre if the financial details can be worked out. As I discussed last week on the Podcast, it's definitely conceivable Young could return. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and Petco is built to maximize his strengths. He has missed significant time due to injury the past 3 seasons, making him a high risk acquisition by another team; which also means the market won't really be there for his services, so his price should be relatively low despite his experience and success (he was an All-Star in 2007).

With only 3 of their rotation slots spoken for in 2011, re-signing CY makes a lot of sense.

- Ted Simmons has joined the Seattle Mariner front office, after two years as Bud Black's bench coach. Today the Veterans Committee for the Hall of Fame announced Ted will be one of the players they consider for induction. Simmons' career WAR (50.40) is better than Jorge Posada's (46.00), a guy a certain segment of the baseball world is trying to tout as a first-ballot HOF. Simmons finished in the MVP top 20 seven times from 1971-1982. He's certainly worthy of consideration for the Hall, and good luck to him.

- Podcasts: My stated intentions with the Podcast is to do one if any interesting Padre news breaks during that week. That said, let's be realistic - two of the next 3 shows fall on Federal holidays, and you've probably got more important things to do those nights. So the 18 Nov show is the next scheduled on we'll do. That time may change to earlier in the night, but we'll discuss that next week.

Finally, a note on transitions. The Bureau of Naval Personnel approved my retirement request; I'll leave the USN next summer after 20 years of service. There's a lot of personal satisfaction on the job done, and some trepidation on what's to come. I've worn the uniform in some capacity for over half my actual life and all of my adult life. Not only do I now have to find a color other than khaki to wear to work every day, I have to find a job, plus all the normal check-out items that need to be completed before I leave active service (of which medical is probably the most important).

Why am I telling you this? Because in preparation for that transition this blog will necessarily become a lower priority for me. So, it's going to go dark this winter for extended periods of time. I plan to post when appropriate, and I am writing weekly over at I-70 Baseball if you need to a 'Mike fix', but will be concentrating on other things.

I expect to be back full-force for spring training.

Thanks to all of you who've commented here, or just stopped by to read what I've written. A special thank-you to Gaslamp Ball and Ducksnorts for the many links during the 2010 season. Remember: I'm not going away, just turning down the wattage for a while. See you around.

Garland, Gonzalez, Torrealba Options Resolved

2010-11-03T06:30:00.000-07:00

The Padres picked up Adrian Gonzalez's 2011 option yesterday. As if there was any doubt.

According to Baseball Reference, Gonzalez had the highest NL WAR for position players not named Albert Pujols, and 4th highest overall (fangraphs is not as enamored; they rank Gonzo 13th in the league). Gonzalez's value by Fangraphs came in at $21.1 million; his actual 2011 contract option is for $5.5 million.

Two other options were reported yesterday by XX1090 during the drive home. Jon Garland exercised his player option and declined to return to San Diego in 2011. He receives the $300K buyout. Yorvit Torrealba also declined his $3.5 million option for 2011, and he receives a $500K buyout.

Gonzo gets a $750K raise. The Padres spent $800K and cleared $10.25M off the books for 2011, making $9.45M more available to sign players in 2011.

I'm a little surprised Torrealba declined to return, however, 2010 was his best season in the majors. He had the most PA he's had since 2007, and he put up his best-ever WAR (2.4, again by Fangraphs). He's 32 years old. Perhaps he thinks he proved himself this past season, and believes he can find an everyday catching gig on the free agent market. That's certainly possible. I love an optimist, so best of luck Yorvit.

I'm not all that surprised Garland is leaving. He seemed irritated at how he was used by Black, especially towards the end of the season. There were a couple of games (against the Giants in early September, against the Cubs the last home game of the season) where he either was visibly upset at being lifted, or verbally indicated he was miffed in the post-game interview. Garland professed to really wanting to pitch at Petco when the Padres signed him in the off-season; things must have gone sour indeed for him to leave after only one season.

Garland had the best K/9 rate, and the second-worst BB/9 rate, of his career in 2010. His xFIP was the seocnd-lowest of his career, so he pitched about as well as he could; yet his WAR was the lowest it had ever been when throwing 200+ innings (and his lowest since 2001, his second year in the majors). His 3.47 ERA was the best of his career.

How crowded would the Padres rotation have been in 2011? Latos, Richard, and Stauffer return. Young has an $8.5M club option. Correia is a free agent. LeBlanc is probably done as a starter. There was room for Garland here in 2011, had he opted to stay.

Well Jon it was fun while it lasted. Wish you could have stopped that 10-game losing streak before it reached 10 games.

Bruce Bochy, Tim Flannery win a World Series

2010-11-02T07:56:00.000-07:00

Wouldn't it have been better to write that headline while both were still members of the Padres organization? Yes, yes it would.

I was asked in conversation who I would root for in the playoffs, and although I did not pick a team, I did state I would root for the NL representative to win the World Series. Even if that rep was the Dodgers. I believe the only professional league in the world still playing baseball like it was meant to be played is our league, the National League, and I want to see it succeed. Mission accomplished, and congratulations to the San Francisco Giants.

I couldn't watch the post-game celebrations without thinking what might have been for San Diego. I doubt any Padre fan could. San Diego was the better team head-to-head, and had a better interleague record; but the Giants were 32-22 against the rest of the NL West, and the Padres were 26-28. That was the difference. San Fran was a 1/2 game better against the NL Central and 3.5 games better against the NL East than the Padres. Still, San Diego had a chance to win the division on the last day of the season.

Which leaves one to wonder: How far would San Diego have gotten in the post-season? I don't think anyone can really say; after all, what predictive software program had the Rangers knocking off the Yankees? I do think that the Padres would not have had enough offense to survive a first-round matchup with Atlanta or Philadelphia. The Giants got contributions and power up and down their lineup: Renteria, Ross, Posey, Burrell, Uribe, the list goes on. San Diego didn't have that outside of Gonzalez and Tejada. Pitching-wise, San Diego's rotation was not nearly as deep as San Francisco's, although our bullpen is their's equal.

I think the Padres, had they qualified, would have bowed out in the LDS round, and there would have been no shame in that; after all, this team was picked to finish last by most.

With the Giants win we close out the first decade of the new millennium, and what a decade it was for the World Series.

Arizona, Anaheim, Colorado, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Texas all made their first World Series Appearance, with Arizona and Anaheim winning their first ever championship.
We saw long streaks end - Boston ended a 90 year drought; the White Sox an 88 year drought; San Francisco a 56 year drought.
Only the Red Sox won multiple titles.
The old guard teams continue to dominate, though. The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Cardinals won 40% of the league titles (2 each) in the decade.

So other than the end of season awards, that wraps up the 2010 baseball season. Now our attention turns to Adrian Gonzalez's contract negotiations, and the club options for Jon Garland and Chris Young.

Moping and the LCS

2010-10-19T09:22:00.000-07:00

With the off-season in it's third full week, there's little to do on the San Diego front besides wait for Chris Young to be released, and the start of the Padres vs Adrian Gonzalez contract squabbling that will end with Gonzo making $22M a year in Boston.

So we're left with watching the LCS series on Fox and TBS. After 5 played games, I have some thoughts.

To this point Texas is a much better team than New York. Think about this: the Rangers are one bad seven hitter sequence away from leading this series 3-0. I didn't think they'd be up 2-1 at this point, and I suspect most folks didn't either.
It's funny to see the Yankee series relegated to TBS. And satisfying too; at least now the country will be treated to some of the MLB's other good teams.
This Phillies/Giants series is going seven. Neither team is hitting much right now anyway, and the pitching both have has been dominant. I just don't see either team pulling away, unless the Giants start to activate and start Barry Zito.
You think Cody Ross is going to see any more inside fastballs this series?
The Yankees series hopes rest on AJ Burnett's right arm. Good luck, New York. Although I say that knowing Burnett will probably throw a 2-hitter over 7 innings tonight.

I'll probably do a Podcast again Thursday. I'll have an update here Thursday AM either way.

We Pause Briefly to Bash the Chargers

2010-10-17T21:06:00.000-07:00

Rams 20, Chargers 17. I am a Ram fan from way back, and sit in my Jack Youngblood jersey as I type this.

So HAH! San Diego has never beaten the Rams. Ever.

Oh and those of you scratching your head on how the Chargers could lose to a team that was 1-15 last year, and lost 44-6 to Detroit last week? Here's why. The Chargers cannot win on the road, and aren't as good as their rankings. They aren't losing to inferior teams anymore - they are losing to teams as good as they are.

Harsh? Yep. But consider:

Lose once to a bad team (KC) it's a fluke.
Twice (SEA) it's coincidence.
Thrice (OAK) it's a trend.
Four times (STL) you are what you are.

No one will confuse those four teams with Super Bowl contenders. The Chargers shouldn't be considered a contender either.

How would the Padres have done?

2010-10-07T10:17:00.000-07:00

Day 1 of the playoffs is in the books. Philadelphia's Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds 4-0. Since both those teams could have been Padres opponents, I thought: How would the Padres have done?

1. Would Halladay have no-hit San Diego? With the stuff he had last night, Roy Halladay would have no-hit the '27 Yankees. More to the point, here are the Reds and Padres relative NL rankings in various hitting categories:

Average: Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
OBP: Reds (2nd), Padres (13th)
Slugging: Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
ISO: Reds (2nd), Padres (15th)
And of course, wOBA Reds (1st), Padres (15th).

So if Roy Halladay could no-hit the Reds last night, who were in the top 2 in most offensive categories (including nose hair), the Padres would have gotten clobbered. And probably had a perfect game thrown at them. Can't you see Ryan Ludwick flailing wildly at all those 'palm balls' Halladay flicked up there?

2. Would the Padres have no-hit Cincinnati? A little more difficult to answer. The game would have been here, so that's an advantage for the Padre starter. Who would have been the Padre starter? Chris Young would have pitched the Monday play-in game, so Bud Black's options were Jon Garland on extra rest or Clayton Richard on full rest (let's eliminate Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos from consideration; no way they start Game 1 on short rest).

Neither Garland nor Richard have thrown a no-hitter in their careers to date.
Garland has 2 post-season starts; he allowed 4 ER in 16 IP (ERA: 2.25) as a White Sox in 2005. Richard has never started a post-season game.
The Reds hit .275/.335/.437 against RHP and .265/.346/.434 against LHP. That's known as a wash. No advantage there.
The Padres lost both of Richard's starts against Cincinnati this season. The Padres were 4-2 against Cincinnati overall. Garland's teams are 2-2 in his career when he started against the Reds.

So probably Garland. Garland would have 6 days rest between starts (last start 30 Sept). He is 14-16 career with a 4.86 ERA when starting on that much rest. He did throw a 4-hitter at the Cubs in that 30 Sept start, but it was a wet cold day in San Diego, which probably helped him out. If pinned into a corner, I'd say no, the Padres don't no-hit Cincinnati.

Of course, it doesn't matter. San Diego lost last Sunday. Which meant I had to do this today.

That's A Wrap

2010-10-04T06:30:00.000-07:00

It seemed too much to ask, for the Phillies to take a third game from Atlanta, and for the Padres to sweep San Francisco. Turned out, it was.

The Phillies third and fourth stringers put up a pretty valiant effort, trimming a 6-run deficit to 1 with two out in the eighth, but it was too much to overcome. It didn't matter, because the Padres controlled their own destiny on this day. Win and you move on. Lose and you go home.

Losing 3-0 in San Francisco isn't shameful. What will haunt these Padres, other than the 10-game losing streak, is all the men they left on base Sunday. Ludwick striking out in the second with two on and two out. Torrealba's double play grounder after the first two men reached to start the sixth. Tejada striking out with two on and two out in the seventh. Latos pitched well enough - 2 runs allowed should not be enough to kill a team - but on this day it was.

The Padres have some major decisions to make this off-season. No one wants to see a 90-win team dismantled, but there's a very real possibility that might happen (to wit: Chris Young, Jon Garland, and Gonzo account for $20.75 mil in payroll if the Padres pick up all their options). Then there's the question of Tejada and Ludwick - do they return for 2011? Does Heath Bell come back? What of Kyle Blanks? And so on.

We will go into those questions over the coming weeks.

For now, revel in the season that was. Heck, I thought 82-80 and third place was optimistic as a prediction. They exceeded that, kept us riveted all season, and fell just short. It was a lot of fun, even if the final result is not one we wanted, and I for one can't wait for 2011.

That's Two

2010-10-02T22:23:00.000-07:00

Headaches felled your correspondent this afternoon, meaning I didn't watch the game. So, at 4pm, I groggily reached for my iTouch. Initially I read the score SFO 4, SDG 2. Oh, well - at least we tried.

Then I realized it was San Diego that had won 4-2. And, Philadelphia was beating Atlanta 5-0 (they would eventually win 7-0). Holy cow.

Ryan Ludwick's home run in the second inning Friday night might be the biggest hit of the season for San Diego. It snapped their scoreless inning funk at 13, gave them the early lead, and I think both relaxed the Padres and put pressure on the Giants. Who would have thunk that, given how much Ludwick has struggled since the trade.

Tim Stauffer was great. But a one hitter through six? Unbelieveable. Padres scored enough early and held on. Kudos to Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams, and Heath Bell for slamming the door. Well, partial credit goes to Jose Guillen for swinging aggressively and rolling into the 6-3 DP to end it.

I thought after the game "Gee, I think Gregerson, Adams, and Bell have pitched 3 consecutive games. Will they be available Sunday?" Actually it's more than that - Adams has worked in five straight games, Bell and Gregerson 4. This article in the U-T discusses the bullpen. Here's the money quote from Gregerson:

"I told [Darrel Ackerfelds] and Bud (Black) to stop asking me how I feel," said Gregerson. "Let's go. We're trying to win here. It's all hands on deck."

Looks like they will pitch Sunday if called upon. I love it. Gregerson's outlook matches mine - they've got all winter to rest if they don't win tomorrow.

San Diego's odds of making the playoffs stood at 7.5% headed into Friday night. Now they stand at 52.3%. Wouldn't you know it, the season will come down to Mat Latos and Jonathan 'Big Mouth' Sanchez. How appropriate. Never going to look back, Big Mouth, once you pass the Padres? Look in the rearview mirror.

There is no pressure at all tomorrow on the Padres. It's all on the Giants. The only thing going for SF right now is they will be part of a one-game playoff they end up tied with someone else. San Diego can't say that, and neither can Atlanta. If either team loses while the other wins, the loser is out. Should make for compelling baseball.

Tear yourself away from the Charger game on your computer and watch the Padres/Giants. Screw the Chargers. They suck for the first 1/4 of the season anyway.

That's One

2010-10-01T22:46:00.000-07:00

How big was that double play in the ninth? Thank you Freddy Sanchez.

Padres get it done. Now they can focus on tomorrow's game. Philadelphia routed Atlanta, so the Padres gain ground in both races.

Nice to see Ryan Ludwick packed his big bat for this series, even if he struck out 3 times following his second inning HR. Nice to see the Padres jump all over Matt Cain early to take the crowd out of the game for most of it; they re-appeared in the sixth when San Fran scored 3 to get back in the game, but we were into the strength of our bullpen by that point.

Adrian Gonzalez had a rare bad game with the glove, but I can live with that, especially considering he tattooed a ball for the 3-run HR in the fourth. Didn't hurt. Meant Bell had to face the heart of the Giant order in the ninth, but Sanchez sucked the wind out of that inning.

Some noise was made pre-game about Giant manager Bruce Bochy moving Cain up to Friday so they could clinch and get it over with. Perhaps there was another reason:

Matt Cain 2010 splits:

Day Games - 73.1 IP, 7 HR, 3-4, 3.31 ERA
Night Games - 146 IP, 12 HR, 10-6, 2.77 ERA

Barry Zito 2010 splits:

Day Games - 43 IP, 6 HR, 2-2, 3.77 ERA
Night Games - 153.1 IP, 14 HR, 7-11, 4.17 ERA

Cain was definitely better at night than Zito, and Saturday's game is a day tilt. I'm sure that figured into his reasoning.

Padre prospects for making the playoffs are noticeably brighter now than they were 24 hours ago. This team can beat Zito. Then it's a one-game playoff against 'Big Mouth' Sanchez for all the marbles. Should Philly sweep Atlanta, and the Padres pull off the improbable, there is no playoff, San Diego wins the division, and San Francisco draws Philly in the NLDS.

Wouldn't that be sweet.

Wet, Gloomy Day at Petco

2010-10-01T12:05:00.000-07:00

Work permitted, so I headed down to Petco for yesterday's regular season finale.

Initially weather did not cooperate:

I've been going to Padres games upwards of 20 years, and that's the first time I can remember seeing the tarp on the field. Exciting. Seats were soaked, so I skulked with my beer at the top of our section awaiting the wife's arrival. Which was delayed, because she had inadvertently left her ticket and the parking pass at home (I took the trolley down from work).

She didn't have to head home, as we can get a reprinted ticket as season ticket holders, which was nice. After some gymnastics to get the car parked - traffic downtown at 4pm yesterday was far, far worse than I've seen it recently - we watched the game from our rain-soaked seats. Some high (lowlights):

I know it doesn't rain much in San Diego, and almost never during the baseball season. But even so, shouldn't the stadium designers have included a rudimentary drainage system for the low points in each deck? We spent the game with our feet in 2 inches of water.
Why did Yorvit Torrealba try to swipe second in the second inning? I was buying more beer and turned around in time to see him thrown out by 200 feet. A catcher should never try a straight steal (unless he's John Wathan), and especially should never try to steal on a wet track like yesterday's infield. Was there a missed hit and run there? Did Yorvit look back at the plate as he headed to second? I need to know.
San Diego was no-hit for the last 7.1 innings. Enough said.
I was somewhat surprised Jon Garland left the game in the seventh after only 95 pitches. It worked out for the Padres, but still I was surprised. He threw as well yesterday as I have seen him throw in person.
There was a noticeable change in the mood every time Ryan Ludwick stepped in. A 'geez, this guy's terrible, here comes another strikeout' vibe. Ludwick absorbed a smattering of boos after popping out to CF to end the sixth (with Venable on third, the only Padre to make it that far yesterday). In the ninth, the fans got up for Tejada's leadoff at-bat, stayed up for Gonzo's, then got quiet, resigned to Ludwick making an out. Which he promptly did. It's very frustrating watching Ludwick. He's trying, but he's in a horrific slump.

In the third inning Aaron Cunningham hit a ball into the stands. It wasn't a line drive, but it was hit well and had some pace on it. Although several people tried to make a play, it sailed through the stands and struck an 8-year old boy (approximate age) on the head. How hard was that ball hit? It caromed back onto the field. Immediately people started motioning for the ushers to come over and assist.

Amazingly the blow did not draw blood. Eventually, EMT's showed up to evaulate his condition.

Count seven rows of seats from the left side of this photo, and look for the bald guy just to the right of the guy in the white t-shirt standing with his arm raised. That's where the kid was. You can see it's 30 feet easy from there to the grass, where the ball landed after it bounced off him.

The kid stayed another 2 innings, then he and his dad left. Some of the fans in that section applauded the kid as he walked out, which was cool. He looked pretty dazed to me, even 30 minutes later. I hope his dad found his common sense and took the boy to a doctor for further evaluation.

I'm not a moralist, and I'm probably the last guy to give parenting advice, but hey dads - your primary function when at a baseball game with small children is to protect your children. Letting your son/daughter get clocked by a foul ball? FAIL. Get in the way next time. I'd rather take a line drive off the balls than see my son struck because I was more concerned with getting a souvenir than protecting him.

The kid did at least get to keep the ball. Small consolation in my mind today, he might feel differently about it later on.

Padres got shut out, it rained, and a little kid got struck with a foul ball. Pretty much sums up a lousy day at the ball park. Oh yeah - for my 20 home games the Padres went 7-13. Depressing.

***
It all comes down to this weekend. San Diego should not focus on winning all 3 games. They need to focus on beating Matt Cain tonight. It really quite simple - if they don't win today, tomorrow's game doesn't mean anything. So focus on the now.

Granted, there is also the very real possibility the Padres could be eliminated tonight, if they lose and the Braves win. But let's not think about that. San Diego is 2-0 against Cain this season when he's paired with Clayton Richard. Focus on that.

It should be raucous in Pac Bell Park tonight. Hey Padres - Feed off that. Reach deep inside and stop the tide.

Will Venable and Chris Young save the season

2010-09-30T07:45:00.000-07:00

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

Admit it: after the double steal, you didn't think there was any way the Padres would get out of the first inning without allowing a run. Not with Byrd, Aramis Ramirez, and X Nady due. I sure didn't; I figured escaping while allowing only 1 run would be Above Average.

Emphasizing how important that sequence was, Bud Black brought the infield in for the THIRD HITTER OF THE GAME. When was the last time you saw that? What is a more powerful testimony to how much the Padre offense is struggling?

Cue the music. Chris Young escaped on an easy chopper to third, one ridiculously well-placed fastball that tied Ramirez up, and a flailing strikeout of Nady. Wow.

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

But that was nothing. Will Venable topped that by robbing Soriano of extra bases leading off the second. Enberg (live) and Leitner (on the Padre Replay this AM, courtesy of XX1090) both called is as taking a HR away. From the excellent vantage point of my couch 20 miles away, it looked like Venable didn't go over the fence to catch it. Sadly Channel 4 never offered a shot along the fence line that could have determined it, and I don't know if WGN/ESPN had a better shot of the catch. Either way it saved a run; if the ball doesn't clear the fence, Soriano scores on Koyie Hill's double later in the inning.

But THAT was nothing. Ramirez didn't miss a fastball in his next AB, hitting the high hard one a loong way into LC. Venable, not slowing down and not giving up, leapt into the stands to make a spectacular catch, robbing Ramirez of a 2-run HR, and ending the inning.

The description above does not do that catch justice. With the season on the line, playing for the first time in three days thanks to a balky back, in a game they could not afford to lose, nursing a tenuous 1-run lead, what a play by Will Venable. San Diego should have been down 3-1 at that point, and could have been down 4 or 5-1. Instead, they added single runs in the 4th and 6th, winning 3-0.

Unfortunately, Atlanta cruised past Florida, while Ian Kennedy made one bad pitch to Pat Burrell which he hit for a 3-run bomb, giving Tim Lincecum all the cushion he would need in a 3-1 Giants win.

San Diego still controls its destiny. Win out and win the West. That said, they could really use a Arizona win today coupled with a win over Chicago. Winning two of 3 in San Fran will be very difficult; the Padres have to beat up Zito Saturday, and will need to find a way to beat either Cain or Sanchez. Asking them to sweep this weekend series in order to qualify for the post-season is bordering on impossible. Not with this lineup.

This morning Scott and BR brought up 1996, and the famous Padre 3-game sweep of the Dodgers to win the West. There is one crucial difference. That year the Dodgers had qualified for the post-season before the series started; the only question was would the Padres make it in or not. This year, nothing is decided, and both teams face the very real possibility they could miss the post-season altogether if they lose the series. San Francisco has a lot more incentive to win than the Dodgers did in 96. Seeing as the Padres have dominated the season series, I would think the last team SF wants to play in the NLCS is San Diego. Other than Philadelphia, that is.

Another big game this afternoon. I should be there, work and weather permitting. Podcast tonight.

Not much left to say

2010-09-29T08:20:00.000-07:00

I said they had to win last night's game. Is it worth repeating again today?

Two back (on the loss side) of both Atlanta and San Francisco with 5 to play. Unless they find a way to generate some offense, and win the next two games from Chicago, the weekend series in 'Frisco won't mean a thing.

Come on guys. You've played too well for too long to give up now. Forget about last night. Get today's game.