Saturday, April 14, 2012
Friday, April 13, 2012
So Who Gets Sent Down?
With Dustin Moseley on the DL, and with the possibility he will miss the rest of this season staring him straight in the face, the San Diego Padres will call up Joe Weiland to start tomorrow's game against the Dodgers. He draws Ted Lilly, who will also be making his first start of 2012.
This poses two questions: (1) who will the Padres send down, and (2) will Weiland be a permanent part of the Padres 2012 rotation?
Who will the Padres send down? Recognize this is all pure speculation on my part. The Padres called up Josh Spence when they placed Moseley on the 15-day DL, so the early money would be on him returning to AAA. All the Padres relievers have pitched over the past 2 games, so there's no guy not getting any work who could be on his way out.
Spence has made 2 appearances, both against Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero, and thrown 4 pitches total while retiring Montero twice. Montero had one of the ugliest ABs you will ever see Wednesday afternoon against the soft-tossing lefty; none of the 3 pitches he swung at approached within a foot of the plate while breaking from right to left across the plate. Spence made him look bad.
If the Padres are looking to ship out someone currently struggling, the obvious candidates would be Brad Brach an Ernesto Frieri. Brach has faced 14 hitters and allowed 4 hits (including a HR) and 3 walks while striking out two. Frieri has been slightly better; he's faced 16 batters, allowed 3 hits (including a HR) and 2 walks while striking out 5. Now granted, 16 hitters is the epitome of a small sample size, yet these two guys are not throwing it as well as the rest of the bullpen.
We could also look at Micah Owings, who's numbers are similar (24 BF; 4H 1HR 2BB 3K); but his ERA+ (115) is better than both Frieri (68) and Brach (56).
The other criteria is the question of options. All 4 of the pitchers discussed above are on the 40-man roster. Owings has 4.053 years service time, Frieri 1.101 years, Brach 0.029, Spence 0.100. If I'm interpreting the options rule correctly Owings is out of options, Frieri has 1 left, Brach has 3 left, and Spence has 3 left. So the Padres can't send Owings down without having to pass him through waivers, but they could send any of the other 3 down with no issue. If I've screwed this up I would really appreciate a correction and tutorial on the options subject.
All that presented, I'm leaning towards Spence. Before Joe Thatcher threw a scoreless inning last night he had as many innings (2/3) in 6 previous games as Spence had since being called up. Somehow I don't think Bud Black needs two lefties in the bullpen.
Is Weiland here to stay? Most of that will depend on how he pitches. There are a number of factors here, not the least of which is starting his arbitration clock. For a cash-starved franchise like San Diego one would assume they will try to hold onto their young players for as long as possible, which means delaying their arbitration clock start for as long as possible. I don't think Weiland stays with the club for the rest of this season.
When Tim Stauffer returns from the DL (rumored to be at least another 3 weeks) Weiland will probably be sent down regardless. The Padres could call up Jeff Suppan to cover Moseley's rotation spot long-term, sending Weiland back to Tucson and Bass back to the bullpen. Or they could have something else in mind (wouldn't Roy Oswalt look good in Padre colors? Hey we can dream). Like I said, Weiland is likely here for experience and a cup of coffee only - not permanently.
No matter what, the first big prospect call-up of 2012 will happen tomorrow. I for one am really looking forward to seeing the kid pitch.
This poses two questions: (1) who will the Padres send down, and (2) will Weiland be a permanent part of the Padres 2012 rotation?
Who will the Padres send down? Recognize this is all pure speculation on my part. The Padres called up Josh Spence when they placed Moseley on the 15-day DL, so the early money would be on him returning to AAA. All the Padres relievers have pitched over the past 2 games, so there's no guy not getting any work who could be on his way out.
Spence has made 2 appearances, both against Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero, and thrown 4 pitches total while retiring Montero twice. Montero had one of the ugliest ABs you will ever see Wednesday afternoon against the soft-tossing lefty; none of the 3 pitches he swung at approached within a foot of the plate while breaking from right to left across the plate. Spence made him look bad.
If the Padres are looking to ship out someone currently struggling, the obvious candidates would be Brad Brach an Ernesto Frieri. Brach has faced 14 hitters and allowed 4 hits (including a HR) and 3 walks while striking out two. Frieri has been slightly better; he's faced 16 batters, allowed 3 hits (including a HR) and 2 walks while striking out 5. Now granted, 16 hitters is the epitome of a small sample size, yet these two guys are not throwing it as well as the rest of the bullpen.
We could also look at Micah Owings, who's numbers are similar (24 BF; 4H 1HR 2BB 3K); but his ERA+ (115) is better than both Frieri (68) and Brach (56).
The other criteria is the question of options. All 4 of the pitchers discussed above are on the 40-man roster. Owings has 4.053 years service time, Frieri 1.101 years, Brach 0.029, Spence 0.100. If I'm interpreting the options rule correctly Owings is out of options, Frieri has 1 left, Brach has 3 left, and Spence has 3 left. So the Padres can't send Owings down without having to pass him through waivers, but they could send any of the other 3 down with no issue. If I've screwed this up I would really appreciate a correction and tutorial on the options subject.
All that presented, I'm leaning towards Spence. Before Joe Thatcher threw a scoreless inning last night he had as many innings (2/3) in 6 previous games as Spence had since being called up. Somehow I don't think Bud Black needs two lefties in the bullpen.
Is Weiland here to stay? Most of that will depend on how he pitches. There are a number of factors here, not the least of which is starting his arbitration clock. For a cash-starved franchise like San Diego one would assume they will try to hold onto their young players for as long as possible, which means delaying their arbitration clock start for as long as possible. I don't think Weiland stays with the club for the rest of this season.
When Tim Stauffer returns from the DL (rumored to be at least another 3 weeks) Weiland will probably be sent down regardless. The Padres could call up Jeff Suppan to cover Moseley's rotation spot long-term, sending Weiland back to Tucson and Bass back to the bullpen. Or they could have something else in mind (wouldn't Roy Oswalt look good in Padre colors? Hey we can dream). Like I said, Weiland is likely here for experience and a cup of coffee only - not permanently.
No matter what, the first big prospect call-up of 2012 will happen tomorrow. I for one am really looking forward to seeing the kid pitch.
Random Thoughts - Games 6 and 7
I've watched a lot of Padres baseball in the last 2 days. Let's over the highlights.
- Cory Luebke was all over the place in the first inning Wednesday, needing 43 pitches to retire the side. Some of that was due to an inconsistent strike zone from HP umpire Eric Cooper (which, incidentially, was a common theme throughout these two games), some of it because Luebke was all over the place. After walking Jason Kubel to force in Arizona's first run, he struck out Paul Goldschmidt swinging. The next 3 1/3 he struck out three more, didn't walk anyone else, and scattered 4 hits. The fact he got into the sixth inning is something of a miracle, but he did, and he held down Arizona's offense.
- Willie Bloomquist's triple in the second inning should have been a HR. I've never understood the function of those plexiglass windows placed at the end of stairwells at Petco. I had season tickets waaaay out in the LF corner a couple of years ago and the aisle right next to our seats had that window. It made it tough to see the game because the plexiglass is warped. Other than giving the usher something to lean on when standing at the bottom of the stairs I don't know why its there.
Bloomquist managed to hit the plexiglass plate in left-center, on the fly, with a batted ball struck 400 feet away. That's amazing. There is no yellow line at the top of the wall at Petco, so that plate is considered part of the wall; and since the ball struck it, it was a live ball and Bloomquist had a triple. If he'd hit the ball 4 feet either side of where it landed he'd have had a HR and they might still be playing. If the plexiglass isn't there that ball is out. Tough break for Willie.
- Nick Hundley's throw down to second in the first inning was one of the most ridiculous ones you'll ever see. Hundley had two options on that play. He could either eat the ball and give up the stolen base without a play, or try to throw it down. Because the pitch was low, away, and breaking away from him, his momentum pulled him into the LH hitter's box and he didn't have time to get on top of the ball. Apparently just after he let it go he thought "Oh S*!t" knowing he'd uncorked a wild throw to second.
- The Padres really only hit Joe Saunders hard in one inning - the seventh, his last inning. Kyle Blanks had a hard single, Orlando Hudson lined into a tough-luck double play, and Andy Parrino lined out to right. Other than a pair of line drives by Guzman (one for a single, one for an out), the Padres didn't hit it all that hard.
- I didn't think Chris Denorfia's ball would get out. It didn't appear to be hit well enough, but it kept carrying and carrying and carrying. Then the other bizarre play in this game happened - Diamondbacks CF Chris Young jumped up to try and catch the ball, but he clipped the wall on his way up knocking his glove off his hand. The glove kept going upward and was struck by the ball on its way down. In slow motion on Fox Sports SD it looked very cool.
Padres pulled it out to win 2-1. Arizona kind of gave that game away, having left the bases loaded twice and 11 guys on overall. The game featured 10 walks, 12 strikeouts, and 5 pitching changes. Two hours and 58 minutes of fun.
By contrast, tonight's game featured 6 walks, 20 strikeouts, and 8 pitching changes. Three hours and 2 minutes to play a 3-1 game. If you want to live forever go to a Padres game because they take forever. I'm the biggest baseball fan I know but these two games were excruciating to watch.
- I'm also the biggest Jesus Guzman homer this side of his mom, but he had a lousy game tonight. Three strikeouts at the plate, and a fly ball he misplayed into a double. Guzman broke the wrong way initially, charged in far enough to catch it, then had the ball kick off his glove as he slid trying to catch it.
San Diego has made at least one error in 5 of their 7 games so far. Yeech.
- The sad thing about this game is the Padres came out on fire. Cameron Maybin's leadoff triple was crushed, as were the singles that followed it by Will Venable and Chase Headley. I could watch Maybin run all day, by the way. Love the chicken wing. But after Guzman struck out looking for the first out, the Padres kind of went all flat. After that they got a 1-out double from Jason Bartlett in the second, and a two-out single from Yonder Alonso in the sixth. That was their offense.
As an aside, HP umpire Marty Foster's strike zone was just as inconsistent as Cooper's was the night before. Not inconsistent during an at-bat, but definitely inconsistent from at-bat to at-bat. On several occasions a pitch called a strike to one hitter was a ball to a later hitter. Hitters on both teams were frustrated throughout these two games.
- Gotta love it when you get to see the 5-2-4 double play. Also both games featured a rundown, which is always cool (Parrino picked off first 1-3-4-3, and Anthony Bass' great play on Lyle Overbay's drive up the middle that led to a 1-5-6 put out on Chris Young).
- Bartlett airmailed the throw to first that eventually led to the unearned run which won the game. I don't know if Alonso could have caught that ball in any situation. He didn't jump for it, which is true, but the throw landed 3 rows deep in the stands on the fly. Not sure he had any play on that throw.
- Bass pitched pretty well despite not surviving the fifth. He had some tough luck in that fifth; had Guzman made the play on that fly to left Bass might have gotten out of the inning unscathed.
- Young's HR in the seventh was crushed, a line shot into the fans down the LF line. Nice, easy swing, dropping the head of the bat onto the ball. Since it was coming in at 98 MPH he didn't need to do too much with it.
San Diego finishes their opening homestand 2-5. Last year they went 3-5 on their first homestand. They head up to LA and out to Denver for this 6-game road trip. They've used everyone in the pen during the last 2 games, but only Josh Spence in both, and he threw only 1 pitch tonight. Tomorrow's game is a rematch of Sunday's game.
- Cory Luebke was all over the place in the first inning Wednesday, needing 43 pitches to retire the side. Some of that was due to an inconsistent strike zone from HP umpire Eric Cooper (which, incidentially, was a common theme throughout these two games), some of it because Luebke was all over the place. After walking Jason Kubel to force in Arizona's first run, he struck out Paul Goldschmidt swinging. The next 3 1/3 he struck out three more, didn't walk anyone else, and scattered 4 hits. The fact he got into the sixth inning is something of a miracle, but he did, and he held down Arizona's offense.
- Willie Bloomquist's triple in the second inning should have been a HR. I've never understood the function of those plexiglass windows placed at the end of stairwells at Petco. I had season tickets waaaay out in the LF corner a couple of years ago and the aisle right next to our seats had that window. It made it tough to see the game because the plexiglass is warped. Other than giving the usher something to lean on when standing at the bottom of the stairs I don't know why its there.
Bloomquist managed to hit the plexiglass plate in left-center, on the fly, with a batted ball struck 400 feet away. That's amazing. There is no yellow line at the top of the wall at Petco, so that plate is considered part of the wall; and since the ball struck it, it was a live ball and Bloomquist had a triple. If he'd hit the ball 4 feet either side of where it landed he'd have had a HR and they might still be playing. If the plexiglass isn't there that ball is out. Tough break for Willie.
- Nick Hundley's throw down to second in the first inning was one of the most ridiculous ones you'll ever see. Hundley had two options on that play. He could either eat the ball and give up the stolen base without a play, or try to throw it down. Because the pitch was low, away, and breaking away from him, his momentum pulled him into the LH hitter's box and he didn't have time to get on top of the ball. Apparently just after he let it go he thought "Oh S*!t" knowing he'd uncorked a wild throw to second.
- The Padres really only hit Joe Saunders hard in one inning - the seventh, his last inning. Kyle Blanks had a hard single, Orlando Hudson lined into a tough-luck double play, and Andy Parrino lined out to right. Other than a pair of line drives by Guzman (one for a single, one for an out), the Padres didn't hit it all that hard.
- I didn't think Chris Denorfia's ball would get out. It didn't appear to be hit well enough, but it kept carrying and carrying and carrying. Then the other bizarre play in this game happened - Diamondbacks CF Chris Young jumped up to try and catch the ball, but he clipped the wall on his way up knocking his glove off his hand. The glove kept going upward and was struck by the ball on its way down. In slow motion on Fox Sports SD it looked very cool.
Padres pulled it out to win 2-1. Arizona kind of gave that game away, having left the bases loaded twice and 11 guys on overall. The game featured 10 walks, 12 strikeouts, and 5 pitching changes. Two hours and 58 minutes of fun.
By contrast, tonight's game featured 6 walks, 20 strikeouts, and 8 pitching changes. Three hours and 2 minutes to play a 3-1 game. If you want to live forever go to a Padres game because they take forever. I'm the biggest baseball fan I know but these two games were excruciating to watch.
- I'm also the biggest Jesus Guzman homer this side of his mom, but he had a lousy game tonight. Three strikeouts at the plate, and a fly ball he misplayed into a double. Guzman broke the wrong way initially, charged in far enough to catch it, then had the ball kick off his glove as he slid trying to catch it.
San Diego has made at least one error in 5 of their 7 games so far. Yeech.
- The sad thing about this game is the Padres came out on fire. Cameron Maybin's leadoff triple was crushed, as were the singles that followed it by Will Venable and Chase Headley. I could watch Maybin run all day, by the way. Love the chicken wing. But after Guzman struck out looking for the first out, the Padres kind of went all flat. After that they got a 1-out double from Jason Bartlett in the second, and a two-out single from Yonder Alonso in the sixth. That was their offense.
As an aside, HP umpire Marty Foster's strike zone was just as inconsistent as Cooper's was the night before. Not inconsistent during an at-bat, but definitely inconsistent from at-bat to at-bat. On several occasions a pitch called a strike to one hitter was a ball to a later hitter. Hitters on both teams were frustrated throughout these two games.
- Gotta love it when you get to see the 5-2-4 double play. Also both games featured a rundown, which is always cool (Parrino picked off first 1-3-4-3, and Anthony Bass' great play on Lyle Overbay's drive up the middle that led to a 1-5-6 put out on Chris Young).
- Bartlett airmailed the throw to first that eventually led to the unearned run which won the game. I don't know if Alonso could have caught that ball in any situation. He didn't jump for it, which is true, but the throw landed 3 rows deep in the stands on the fly. Not sure he had any play on that throw.
- Bass pitched pretty well despite not surviving the fifth. He had some tough luck in that fifth; had Guzman made the play on that fly to left Bass might have gotten out of the inning unscathed.
- Young's HR in the seventh was crushed, a line shot into the fans down the LF line. Nice, easy swing, dropping the head of the bat onto the ball. Since it was coming in at 98 MPH he didn't need to do too much with it.
San Diego finishes their opening homestand 2-5. Last year they went 3-5 on their first homestand. They head up to LA and out to Denver for this 6-game road trip. They've used everyone in the pen during the last 2 games, but only Josh Spence in both, and he threw only 1 pitch tonight. Tomorrow's game is a rematch of Sunday's game.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Random Thoughts on Game 4
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| Congrats Kid. (Denis Poroy/Getty Images) |
- Sunday's attendance was announced at 19,021. My first thought was 'Wow, for a Dodger game on a Sunday that's a really small crowd. Guess people really are pissed off about the ownership and TV deal soap opera'. Well that's not really the case. I went back to 2005 and looked at the Padres schedule.
They've played on Easter Sunday five times (including this Sunday); in 2005, 2008, and 2010 Easter fell on a Sunday prior to the start of the regular season. The 2006 game was played in Atlanta, but the 2007, 2009, 2011, and this year's were played at home. Here's the attendance figures for those 4 games:
- 2007: Win 2-1 (10), 27,086
- 2009: Win 6-1, 19,415
- 2011: Loss 1-3, 24,031
- 2012: Win 8-4, 19,021
- 2006: Padres finish 88-74, win NL West
- 2008: Padres finish 63-99, last in NL West
- 2011: Padres finish 90-72, miss playoffs by one game
- 2012: Padres finish 71-91, last in NL West
- Matt Treanor crushed a ball in the third inning that died in LC (caught by Cameron Maybin on the track). Venable hit a ball even further leading off the bottom of that same inning only to have Andre Ethier run it down at the wall near the 401 sign. Cue the 'bring in the fences' music. Then Andy Parrino launches a shot into the Padres bullpen to give the team a 4-0 lead. That ball didn't look like it was hit as well as Venable's, yet it kept going and going. Matt Kemp later snuck a ball out just beyond Maybin's reach in dead center, and Chase Headley hit his ball into the second deck in left to blow the game open.
That's 3 HR and 2 almosts in this game. Maybe the Padres should play all their games at home under the sun. Check this out:
Home record in day games, 2004-2012: 94-83 (.531)
Overall record at home, 2004-2012: 336-316 (.516)
Just sayin'.
- Jesus Guzman snubbed the Marine Drill Instructor waiting for him in LF. Now, to be fair, he shook the hand of the DI waiting at shortstop for Jason Bartlett, but then he ran into LC and started warming up, ignoring the gentleman standing there. Maybe he didn't see him - that particular SSGT was standing just beyond the infield near third base - but it's not like this is a new event on Sundays at Petco.
If his personal politics are such that he doesn't support the American military actions in progress around the globe, that's fine; but shake the man's hand, at least. He's just an instrument of the policy, not the formulator of it.
Speaking of military Sundays, why is it always the USMC who gets to run onto the field before the game to greet the Padres? Last I checked, Commander Surface Forces US Pacific Fleet was headquartered at 32nd street, Commander Naval Air Forces at Naval Air Station North Island, and there's a whole squadron of Submarines moored at Point Loma. We can't find 9 First Class or Chief Petty Officers to run onto the field?
Of course, watching some 'robust' CPO amble onto the field with a coffee cup in one hand and a cigarette in the other would be hilarious, at least to me.
- I forgot how fast Clayton Richard works. He breezed through the first 3 innings. 10 pitches each in the first 2 innings, and 14 in the third. In his last inning (seventh) he threw 6 pitches. Get the ball and throw it - nice.
The game would have been a lot shorter if not for the 8 walks, 1 hit batsman, and 4 pitching changes the Dodgers did.
- My gosh the Padres defense has been awful so far. Another 3 errors on Sunday, which included a dropped fly ball (Venable), a 'I closed my glove too fast' (Richard), and a bad throw to first (also Richard). I don't know why pitchers try to finesse the ball to first on a bunt or roller to the mound. I'm in the Joaquin Andujar school of baseball: FIRE the ball to first if you have to make a throw. Why change your mindset? You don't need to wind up, but don't throw an eephus pitch over there either.
- One more Guzman note: Jesus has hit in every game this season. It continues to baffle me how the team's best returning power hitter from 2011 will become a utility player in 2012 once Carlos Quentin returns from the DL. He has to play every day. And those who say his glove isn't good enough: San Diego made 8 errors in this 4-game series. How could he be any worse than what's been run out there so far?
Padres resume their homestand against Arizona tonight.
When I'm in the park the Padres are 1-0. Clearly the 2 are connected.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Bill Center takes angry comments over TV deal in chat
So the Padres dropped their home opener 5-3. At points, it looked like they were reprising Tony Bennett's famous ballad, 'I left my glove in A-ri-zona' with the 3 errors. At least Jesus Guzman knocked in a run and Cameron Maybin launched a mammoth 2-R shot.
Today Bill Center had a second consecutive chat on the U-T website. As you might have expected, there was some grousing about yesterday's result, some questions about who the owner is and will be, and a LOT of anger directed at the Padres over the TV deal. And frankly there should be.
Some of that delay was due to MLB's obstinance regarding the use of funds initially received by the Padres once they signed the deal. Most of us had surmised the delay was entirely due to fallout from the Frank McCourt debacle, and we were right - MLB did not want Moorad to put the new TV money to personal use, or to even have the opportunity to do so. Moorad's assurances on this point weren't enough, apparently, and that's too bad. Not all men are as dishonorable as McCourt.
But because of that MLB position the TV deal was not and is not done. The fact that games are on TV at all is something of a miracle, a good faith sign between the Padres and Fox Sports SD that they will in fact be awarded this contract somewhere down the line.
That's not why fans are upset. Most fans suffered through the past years of only being able to see the Padres on Time Warner or Cox, thanks to the Channel 4 SD arrangement. If you had another cable TV service provided besides those two companies you were SOL. When the Time Warner deal expired, many fans were happy thinking the 2012 season would be available city- and county-wide. And yet it's not. One can still see the games on Cox; one can now see the games on DirecTV; but if you have Time Warner, U-Verse, Dish Network, or some other provider you're still SOL.
No wonder people in the north county are defecting to the Angels.
Whether or not this is an issue between the Padres and FSSD or between Fox and the cable TV providers is irrelevant. In this day and age people want to watch the games at home. Listening to the radio isn't good enough. Quick poll: how many of you even HAVE a radio in the house where your TV sits? Anyone? There you go. To allow the conditions of the previous decade to continue into the start of this season is ridiculous. This needs to be fixed ASAP.
Today Bill Center had a second consecutive chat on the U-T website. As you might have expected, there was some grousing about yesterday's result, some questions about who the owner is and will be, and a LOT of anger directed at the Padres over the TV deal. And frankly there should be.
Some of that delay was due to MLB's obstinance regarding the use of funds initially received by the Padres once they signed the deal. Most of us had surmised the delay was entirely due to fallout from the Frank McCourt debacle, and we were right - MLB did not want Moorad to put the new TV money to personal use, or to even have the opportunity to do so. Moorad's assurances on this point weren't enough, apparently, and that's too bad. Not all men are as dishonorable as McCourt.
But because of that MLB position the TV deal was not and is not done. The fact that games are on TV at all is something of a miracle, a good faith sign between the Padres and Fox Sports SD that they will in fact be awarded this contract somewhere down the line.
That's not why fans are upset. Most fans suffered through the past years of only being able to see the Padres on Time Warner or Cox, thanks to the Channel 4 SD arrangement. If you had another cable TV service provided besides those two companies you were SOL. When the Time Warner deal expired, many fans were happy thinking the 2012 season would be available city- and county-wide. And yet it's not. One can still see the games on Cox; one can now see the games on DirecTV; but if you have Time Warner, U-Verse, Dish Network, or some other provider you're still SOL.
No wonder people in the north county are defecting to the Angels.
Whether or not this is an issue between the Padres and FSSD or between Fox and the cable TV providers is irrelevant. In this day and age people want to watch the games at home. Listening to the radio isn't good enough. Quick poll: how many of you even HAVE a radio in the house where your TV sits? Anyone? There you go. To allow the conditions of the previous decade to continue into the start of this season is ridiculous. This needs to be fixed ASAP.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Clear the decks for action
At last, the 2012 season is upon us.
The roster is set, Edinson Volquez makes his second consecutive Opening Day start (albeit it with two different clubs), we play baseball downtown starting at 4pm today. It should be a beautiful day for what will probably be the only Padres sellout this season.
Before we get there, I've got two items I want to touch on.
Joey Votto's contract extension. Dave Cameron put up a lengthy Fangraphs post discussing this deal and its implications for baseball's economy in the near future. His spin was mostly positive, especially from the players perspective.
From the club's perspective I don't think everyone will view this deal as a plus. And I think it put a shudder through the San Diego Padres front office.
Why? Because San Diego doesn't have the kind of television money flowing into it that some other teams have. Anaheim signed a TV deal worth $1.5 billion over 20 years; optimistic estimates on the Padres new deal put it at less than half that ($30 mil per/20 years is $600 mil). If the norm becomes teams locking up their stars with long-term, lucrative contracts, San Diego will struggle to compete. First, either there will be no above average free agents on which to bid or the price for those free agents will be so stratospherically high this club has no realistic chance to sign them. Second, if San Diego can't offer the kind of financial security a marquee player could fetch on the open market, why would they sign with the Padres for less? Tony Gwynn did; Adrian Gonzalez wouldn't, as prominent examples from the last 2 decades.
Bud Selig's Interview Last Night. The other item isn't Padres specific. Bud Selig was interviewed during ESPN's last night's Cardinals/Marlins game, and during that discussion he mentioned he'd voted for the Designated Hitter way back in 1972 (interesting tidbit - he's the last front-office executive left who worked for an AL team before the DH was enacted).
Bud Selig has been a driving force for the change in Major League Baseball over the last two decades. Lots of articles have been written about the implications of the permanent interleague play that debuts this season - that it places NL teams at a distinct disadvantage when playing the AL in their ballparks because no NL team has a 20 HR guy just sitting around on their bench.
If he wants to level the playing field between the two leagues Selig either bans the DH from the AL or enacts it in the NL. If Selig was for the DH when it was first discussed, I'm SURE he will be for forcing the DH onto the NL during the next collective bargaining agreement talks. For me, Selig's comment last night is the first sure sign the DH is coming to every NL ballpark - it's only a matter of when.
The roster is set, Edinson Volquez makes his second consecutive Opening Day start (albeit it with two different clubs), we play baseball downtown starting at 4pm today. It should be a beautiful day for what will probably be the only Padres sellout this season.
Before we get there, I've got two items I want to touch on.
Joey Votto's contract extension. Dave Cameron put up a lengthy Fangraphs post discussing this deal and its implications for baseball's economy in the near future. His spin was mostly positive, especially from the players perspective.
From the club's perspective I don't think everyone will view this deal as a plus. And I think it put a shudder through the San Diego Padres front office.
Why? Because San Diego doesn't have the kind of television money flowing into it that some other teams have. Anaheim signed a TV deal worth $1.5 billion over 20 years; optimistic estimates on the Padres new deal put it at less than half that ($30 mil per/20 years is $600 mil). If the norm becomes teams locking up their stars with long-term, lucrative contracts, San Diego will struggle to compete. First, either there will be no above average free agents on which to bid or the price for those free agents will be so stratospherically high this club has no realistic chance to sign them. Second, if San Diego can't offer the kind of financial security a marquee player could fetch on the open market, why would they sign with the Padres for less? Tony Gwynn did; Adrian Gonzalez wouldn't, as prominent examples from the last 2 decades.
Bud Selig's Interview Last Night. The other item isn't Padres specific. Bud Selig was interviewed during ESPN's last night's Cardinals/Marlins game, and during that discussion he mentioned he'd voted for the Designated Hitter way back in 1972 (interesting tidbit - he's the last front-office executive left who worked for an AL team before the DH was enacted).
Bud Selig has been a driving force for the change in Major League Baseball over the last two decades. Lots of articles have been written about the implications of the permanent interleague play that debuts this season - that it places NL teams at a distinct disadvantage when playing the AL in their ballparks because no NL team has a 20 HR guy just sitting around on their bench.
If he wants to level the playing field between the two leagues Selig either bans the DH from the AL or enacts it in the NL. If Selig was for the DH when it was first discussed, I'm SURE he will be for forcing the DH onto the NL during the next collective bargaining agreement talks. For me, Selig's comment last night is the first sure sign the DH is coming to every NL ballpark - it's only a matter of when.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Grandal to Tucson
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| I'll be back. Soon. |
The San Diego Padres announced reassigning Yasmani Grandal today to AAA Tucson.
This no doubt was a tough decision. Offensively Grandal has out-performed John Baker this spring,
- Baker: 8 for 32, 0 HR, 2 2B, 9 Ks
- Grandal: 14 for 34, 3 HR, 2 2B, 9 Ks
Baker is here on a one-year deal. If Grandal continues to develop this year I doubt the Padres will bring Baker back for 2013.
The Padres also re-assigned Alex Hinshaw to minor league camp.
2012 Season Preview
Last Season: Padres finished last in the NL West, 23 games back of Arizona. If not for the Houston Astros, San Diego would have tied the Chicago Cubs for worst record in the National League. The club lost 17 of its first 27 games and never recovered.
The Rotation: The 2012 Padre rotation projects to be Tim Stauffer, Corey Luebke, Edison Volquez, Clayton Richard, and Dustin Moseley. On paper it looks like a decent rotation, but there are a lot of question marks with this group. Both Richard and Moseley are returning from season-ending injuries that required surgery. Richard is reported on-track after arthroscopic surgery to his left shoulder; his effectiveness during spring training is something to closely watch. Moseley also had surgery on his left shoulder, but at least it was his non-throwing shoulder. Moseley dislocated it twice last season while swinging the bat, so don’t expect a lot of ferocious hacks from him this year. Edison Volquez, the newcomer obtained in the Mat Latos trade, had Tommy John surgery in 2009. In the three years since, he has not approached his 2008 campaign (138 ERA+). Volquez will benefit from pitching in Petco and should approach his 2008 numbers.
The stalwarts will be Stauffer and Luebke. Stauffer is expected to be the ace of the rotation, and has had flashes of brilliance during the last 2 seasons. He will have learned from the fatigue that plagued him last summer. Luebke gives the Padres 2 lefties in the rotation, and will look to build on a 2011 that saw him be the best starter (by ERA+) in the rotation. This is Luebke’s breakout season; he will be very good.
Starting Pitching in the Organization: The Padres are loaded, having recently been rated the best farm system in baseball by ESPN. Both RHP Casey Kelly and LHP Robbie Erlin are legitimate ML prospects that could be in the majors in less than 2 years. San Diego has developed a habit of keeping their elite prospects in AA San Antonio rather than AAA Tucson, because there is so much offense in the PCL (lots of small ballparks at altitude). The Padres also signed journeyman Jeff Suppan to a minor league contract, giving them a veteran arm should they need a spot start – highly likely given that 40% of the projected rotation had surgery last season.
The Bullpen: San Diego signed free agent Huston Street to be the closer, replacing Heath Bell who signed with Miami. The Padre bullpen has been a strength for years but this is the biggest reconstruction effort they’ve undertaken since the middle of the last decade. Andrew Cashner, acquired in the Anthony Rizzo trade, projects to be the set-up man but could also move into the rotation. He hit 103.3 on the gun during his first spring training appearance. The gun was likely off a couple of MPH, but he’s still throwing high 90s heat. Dependable Luke Gregerson will man the seventh inning and has the chops to pitch in the eighth (or ninth) if needed. San Diego’s LOOGY will be Joe Thatcher, who has fought injuries the past 2 years but seems fully healthy now. The man to watch in this bullpen is Ernesto Frieri. Frieri has the stuff to close, but has yet to pull it all together consistently. If he can do that, the lights-out ‘pen of 2010 will return this season.
The Corners: Chase Headley returns for a fifth season at third, and off the best offensive season of his career. He should reprise that production in 2012. That’s the easy corner. First base is a lot more complicated. Currently San Diego has four men on the 40-man roster who can play first – Yonder Alonso, Jesus Guzman, Mark Kotsay, and Kyle Blanks. Based on his 2011 Guzman has to be the incumbent and favorite, however Alonso projects to be the long-term answer at first and Blanks’ power remains alluring on a team starved for a thumper. Kotsay will spot-start throughout the year.
Up the Middle: Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson return for a second season by the bay. Both can’t help but improve from their 2011 effort. Look for Bartlett to play better defense the first half of the season than he did last year, and Hudson to stay off the DL. Offensively Bartlett is what he is, especially in spacious Petco, but Hudson should see his batting average and on-base percentage rebound closer to his career averages.
The Outfield: The Padres signed budding star Cameron Maybin to a 5 year deal, so he will man center for the foreseeable future. Carlos Quentin, a San Diego native, signed a one-year deal with the club and will patrol LF after he returns from right knee surgery to fix a torn meniscus. Quentin’s power projects well at Petco; 25 HR is not outside the realm of possibility. Will Venable will likely patrol RF this season. Venable is a plus defender athletic enough to cover Petco’s spacious right field, but he is hit and miss at the plate. He seems to have connected with new hitting coach Phil Plantier, so perhaps he will finally tap all his potential.
The Backstop: Nick Hundley finally broke out during the second half of 2011 and should build on that production in 2012. If he falters the Padres are loaded behind the plate. John Baker was acquired from Miami in the off-season and will be the back-up. On the farm, Yasmani Grandal was also acquired in the Latos trade. The Cuban emigre has a major-league ready bat but needs additional seasoning defensively. He should begin the season in AAA. Top prospect Austin Hedges was the best defensive catcher available in last year’s draft; although his offense needs additional seasoning and maturity, he’s ready today to call games at the ML level.
The Bench: The aforementioned Kotsay brings a left-handed bat to the bench and some veteran leadership to the team. Chris Denorfia, the team’s fourth outfielder, will see a lot of playing time in the lineup via the spot start and late inning defensive replacement, and is also a dependable right-handed bat off the bench. Back-up infielders are still being figured out. It is likely from a pool including Andy Parrino, James Darnell, and Everth Cabrera. Logan Forsythe was in the mix until breaking his foot early in spring training.
The Minors: Suppan will make at least 2 starts for the Padres. Third Baseman Jedd Gyorko is a highly touted prospect who is almost ready. Should the projected bench players falter Gyorko could spend a lot of time with the big club. He will eventually replace Headley at third.
Predictions:
Team MVP: Quentin
Team Ace: Luebke
Team’s 2012 record: 75-87
Team’s 2012 finish in the division: fifth.
Quentin is known for his work ethic. That, coupled with his pull-power to left, the most neutral of the fields for hitters at Petco, means he should put up the numbers he is accustomed to. Quentin’s presence in the lineup alone should help the Padres win 4 more games than last season. Tim Stauffer is currently the team’s ace, but Luebke showed flashes of Mat Latos-like brilliance during 2011. He breaks out and becomes a house-hold name this season. Heck even if he just repeats the numbers he put up last year he’s the best pitcher on the staff.
The NL West is an interesting division. San Francisco is a year removed from being World Champs, and Arizona went from worst to first in 2011. The Dodgers, under stable leadership, should compete with those two teams, and Colorado should be better than last year. The Padres will improve but will once again inhabit the basement of this division. Challenging for the division title is still 2 years away.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Guzman, Quentin, and the outfield
"I came up playing Right Field." - Carlos Quentin, Darren Smith show, December 2011
When the Padres traded for Quentin this winter they filled a glaring need for a power bat in the lineup. Carlos' power is legit, and his specific pull power to left will translate well at Petco National Park. With this deal the team also further exacerbated their organizational depth problem at two positions.
It's not a lack of depth; it's too much depth. Because Petco is so big it was immediately assumed Quentin would man left field. Left was already a toss-up between Kyle Blanks, Jesus Guzman, and possibly Mark Kotsay; adding Quentin ended that discussion but now what do you do with Blanks and Guzman?
Both men can also play first. The log-jam there was almost worse than in left. They as well as Kotsay can play first, but it is much more likely Yonder Alonso (acquired in the Latos trade) will be the everyday first baseman in 2012, which returns us to the original problem of where to play Guzman and Banks.
Now normally this would not be an issue. Blanks is 24 and still trying to recover his stroke from 2011 elbow surgery. He also struggles to hit a pitch at the knees on the outside corner. Guzman is a journeyman in the classic sense of the word, so if he got kicked to the bench no big deal, right?
Except Jesus Guzman was the Padres best power hitter in 2011 (by OPS+).
Over the last couple of years the Padres offense has struggled to say the least. Can you imagine a scenario where one of the team's best hitters is consigned to a bench role? Has that ever happened before? Closest I could come up with was Rod Carew being let go by the Angels the winter after he got his 3000th hit.
Is there a way to get Guzman into the everyday lineup? Yeah. Refer to the quote at the top of the article. The Padres could start Guzman in left and Quentin in right. That would guarantee their best lineup gets the most playing time.
Win, right? We ride off into the sunset and make the playoffs? Well, um, no. It is pretty clear the team would score more runs. Some combination of Guzman/Quentin/Alonso/Cameron Maybin/Nick Hundley in the middle of the order would make the Padres dangerous. However they might give up as many runs as they put up.
First Guzman has virtually no experience in the outfield at the Major League level. In his career he has 51 innings anywhere in the OF, 47 of those innings coming in left; all that experience happened last season. One can't responsibly draw any conclusions on his defensive prowess based on 51 innings. He at least looked competent last year - he didn't have a ball bounce off his head and go for a Home Run, so that's something - but in those 47 innings in LF Dewan plus/minus ranked him as a -1 defensively.
Quentin's defensive metrics are all over the map. In LF he was downright awful, ranking 25th in 2010 (1147 innings in LF and his defense allowed more runs to score than would have normally), and 33rd in 2011 (753 innings, 11 runs allowed). In right he's alternated between middle of the road (2009, AZ, 577 innings, 2 runs saved, ranked 15th), to downright awful (2010, CWS, 897 innings, 14 runs allowed, ranked 35th), to pretty darn good (2011, CWS, 854 2/3 innings, 6 runs saved, ranked 6th).
Could he competently cover RF? Probably. The hesitancy is due to not only his recent arthroscopic surgery to his right knee/meniscus, but because of how large Petco Right Field is. A guy on 2 good knees is challenged to cover all that real estate.
Then what does the team do with Will Venable? Venable is an elite defender in right. He's been a top 6 defender out there in 2 of his three years with the Padres, and middle of the road the lone year he wasn't. Venable has been spectacularly average at the plate (103 career OPS+), however, which is why making him a late-inning defensive replacement has some allure.
Venable has torn it up this spring (.372/.440/.512 through yesterday's games), which would support reports he has really connected with new hitting coach Phil Plantier and become the hitter all hoped he would be. It also further complicates the defensive picture in the OF.
For the first 2 weeks of this season this question is moot. Quentin won't return to the active roster until mid- to late-May as he recovers from his surgery, so Venable will be the starter in right and Guzman should get the majority of the starts in left. Once Quentin returns, the problem resurfaces. How do you get Guzman's bat into the lineup everyday?
San Diego might be alone among NL teams wishing the DH was already in force for the senior circuit.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Organizational Moves
The Padres announced earlier today they had re-assigned 4 players to minor league camp and one to AA San Antonio. RHP Miles Mikolas and Matt Painter, INF Jedd Gyorko and OF Jaff Decker were sent to ML camp. INF Jeudy Valdez went to AA San Antonio.
The Padres team press announcement noted this leaves 41 players in camp, of which 10 are non-roster invitees, one of whom is Jeff Suppan. I may be the only Padre blogger hoping Suppan makes this team.
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Of course, those roster moves are dwarfed by the intrigue surrounding club ownership. In the latest development of what has rapidly turned into a soap opera, Padres CEO and apparent heir to ownership Jeff Moorad stepped down as CEO. It was initially reported Moorad had accepted a VP position with the club and that VP Tom Garfinkel had been elevated to CEO. Later reporting indicated Moorad had cleaned out his office entirely and was gone.
That's not the end of the intrigue. John Moores, who was compelled to sell the team as a result of his divorce proceedings, has been reported to having renewed interest in steering the club. If that happens does he undo all that Moorad's team did, especially in the front office? Moorad cleaned house, bringing in a new GM, revamping and expanding the scouting department, expanding the sales force. His changes have paid off in that the Padres now boast a top 5 farm system (#1 according to ESPN's Keith Law). One would hope Moores is a savvy enough businessman to see these changes have largely been for the better of the Padres franchise.
What does Moorad's step-down mean for his ownership group? One would think that whatever objections exist to Moorad's ownership, they would not be removed simply because Moorad's no longer the front man. My guess is the objections are serious enough they want him to have no part of the team which finally buys the club from Moores. It stinks from Jeff's perspective, in that he and his ownership group have sunk roughly $200M into the franchise trying to buy it and that dream won't be realized.
Personally I don't care if the owner is Moores, Moorad, or some as-yet unknown Selig-favored son. I don't have the animosity towards John Moores that some Padres fans do. However it is not good for business, nor for building a fan base, to have this kind of uncertainty surrounding the team. The Padres and MLB in San Diego would be better off if either John Moores came forward, reasserted control of the team and pulled it off the market, or the team is sold, so everyone can move on and return to what is important:
Baseball.
The Padres team press announcement noted this leaves 41 players in camp, of which 10 are non-roster invitees, one of whom is Jeff Suppan. I may be the only Padre blogger hoping Suppan makes this team.
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Of course, those roster moves are dwarfed by the intrigue surrounding club ownership. In the latest development of what has rapidly turned into a soap opera, Padres CEO and apparent heir to ownership Jeff Moorad stepped down as CEO. It was initially reported Moorad had accepted a VP position with the club and that VP Tom Garfinkel had been elevated to CEO. Later reporting indicated Moorad had cleaned out his office entirely and was gone.
That's not the end of the intrigue. John Moores, who was compelled to sell the team as a result of his divorce proceedings, has been reported to having renewed interest in steering the club. If that happens does he undo all that Moorad's team did, especially in the front office? Moorad cleaned house, bringing in a new GM, revamping and expanding the scouting department, expanding the sales force. His changes have paid off in that the Padres now boast a top 5 farm system (#1 according to ESPN's Keith Law). One would hope Moores is a savvy enough businessman to see these changes have largely been for the better of the Padres franchise.
What does Moorad's step-down mean for his ownership group? One would think that whatever objections exist to Moorad's ownership, they would not be removed simply because Moorad's no longer the front man. My guess is the objections are serious enough they want him to have no part of the team which finally buys the club from Moores. It stinks from Jeff's perspective, in that he and his ownership group have sunk roughly $200M into the franchise trying to buy it and that dream won't be realized.
Personally I don't care if the owner is Moores, Moorad, or some as-yet unknown Selig-favored son. I don't have the animosity towards John Moores that some Padres fans do. However it is not good for business, nor for building a fan base, to have this kind of uncertainty surrounding the team. The Padres and MLB in San Diego would be better off if either John Moores came forward, reasserted control of the team and pulled it off the market, or the team is sold, so everyone can move on and return to what is important:
Baseball.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Padres extend Nick Hundley
Yesterday the San Diego Padres extended catcher Nick Hundley through the 2014 season. The contract also includes a club option for 2015.
And, he's a servicable defender. According to the Fielding Bible, he was middle-of-the-road in terms of CERA and runs saved (ranked 18th), but in the top 1/3 of the league in preventing stolen bases with a 30% caught stealing rate (good enough for 8th).
So no, I don't know why he settled. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs advances a possible reason why the Padres priced him as they did. There could be another two reasons why the Padres locked him up for 3 years, but insisted on a club option only for 2015, and those reasons are Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges.
Hundley is good, but both of these guys project to be better. Each has half of the package - Grandal can hit a ton but is a work in progress behind the plate; Hedges is almost the exact opposite. If you could synthesize the two into Ausmani Grandges, San Diego would have the best catcher this side of Johnny Bench, but sadly that type of cloning technology is still several years away. This deal gives each player 2-3 years to fix their weaknesses before becoming the back-up catcher to Hundley and then the full-time receiver in 2015/2016.
It also means that, assuming one of them does supplant Hundley as the primary catcher between now and 2015, the Padres could bring Nick back as the back-up for a reasonable cost. That might be the best option for Hundley, who will be 31 in 2015 and likely not to get a big payout on the free agent market.
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| You know how hard it is to find a picture of Nick with a bat? |
The dollar values for each year are incredibly cost-effective for the Padres. Hundley will make $2M this year, $3M next, $4M in 2014, and could make $5M in 2015 if the club wants him to stick around.
They also mean Hundley undersold himself by quite a bit. Even though his WAR hadn't been that good prior to last season, he'd still been worth more money per year than he'll make in each the first 2 years of this contract, even in the medicore years (2008-2010). Assuming his .367/.404/.656 performance after 12 August signifies a real breakout by Hundley (it is unrealistic to expect he'll hit like that over the course of a full season, but somewhere in the .260-.280 range for AVG shouldn't be) he left even MORE money on the table.
Not to mention his offensive numbers are depressed by Petco.
And, he's a servicable defender. According to the Fielding Bible, he was middle-of-the-road in terms of CERA and runs saved (ranked 18th), but in the top 1/3 of the league in preventing stolen bases with a 30% caught stealing rate (good enough for 8th).
So no, I don't know why he settled. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs advances a possible reason why the Padres priced him as they did. There could be another two reasons why the Padres locked him up for 3 years, but insisted on a club option only for 2015, and those reasons are Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges.
Hundley is good, but both of these guys project to be better. Each has half of the package - Grandal can hit a ton but is a work in progress behind the plate; Hedges is almost the exact opposite. If you could synthesize the two into Ausmani Grandges, San Diego would have the best catcher this side of Johnny Bench, but sadly that type of cloning technology is still several years away. This deal gives each player 2-3 years to fix their weaknesses before becoming the back-up catcher to Hundley and then the full-time receiver in 2015/2016.
It also means that, assuming one of them does supplant Hundley as the primary catcher between now and 2015, the Padres could bring Nick back as the back-up for a reasonable cost. That might be the best option for Hundley, who will be 31 in 2015 and likely not to get a big payout on the free agent market.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
The Bended Knee
You know Carlos Quentin had surgery yesterday to repair a torn meniscus and clear out some loose cartilage on his right knee. The Padres reported the surgery occurred at the Scripps Clinic Carmel Valley, and that the plan is he will return to playing in 4-6 weeks.
Let's do a little tea-reading here. No one has reported where specifically Quentin's meniscus tore or how serious it was. We do know he tweaked his knee on 9 Mar and played through it for a week before deciding on the surgery. My detailed medical knowledge, culled from a single Google search on meniscus tears, can be summarized in this web link.
What is a meniscus? It's the shock absorber between your leg bones that meet at the knee joint so they don't rub together.
I actually slipped my meniscus once while playing volleyball, causing the two bones to rub briefly against each other. It is not a pleasant sensation.
Anywho, it is shaped like a horseshoe in your knee. You can tear it in any number of ways, as evidenced in the below picture:
So where did Quentin tear his meniscus? Longitudinal tears can heal themselves over time since that part of the meniscus has good blood flow; surgery usually is not required. Based on the description of the procedure (trimming the tear) we can rule out transverse as well. I think it most likely he had a flap or torn horn kind of injury. That would also be consistent with finding loose cartilage in the knee when they did the arthroscope.
The good news about this procedure is it can be done on a not real invasive basis. Once the swelling goes down and some healing is evident Quentin can start his rehab exercises. Again I'm guessing, but I'd think he'd be ready to start rehab early next week, then work through 3 weeks of stabilization exercises, a week of extended spring training, and a week in the minors before returning to the big club.
How does this impact the lineup? Well, it virtually guarantees Will Venable starting the season as your everyday RF. It likely means Jesus Guzman starts the year as the everyday LF. Venable has logged the most games in RF (7), and Guzman was second to Quentin in games played in LF, so far this spring (through Sunday's games).
This is good, because it means Guzman's bat will be in the lineup every day the first 2 weeks of the season. You know, only the team's best hitter last season (by OPS+). The decision on how to keep his bat in the everyday lineup has been kicked down the road, and we'll look at that in a future post as well.
Let's do a little tea-reading here. No one has reported where specifically Quentin's meniscus tore or how serious it was. We do know he tweaked his knee on 9 Mar and played through it for a week before deciding on the surgery. My detailed medical knowledge, culled from a single Google search on meniscus tears, can be summarized in this web link.
What is a meniscus? It's the shock absorber between your leg bones that meet at the knee joint so they don't rub together.
Anywho, it is shaped like a horseshoe in your knee. You can tear it in any number of ways, as evidenced in the below picture:
So where did Quentin tear his meniscus? Longitudinal tears can heal themselves over time since that part of the meniscus has good blood flow; surgery usually is not required. Based on the description of the procedure (trimming the tear) we can rule out transverse as well. I think it most likely he had a flap or torn horn kind of injury. That would also be consistent with finding loose cartilage in the knee when they did the arthroscope.
The good news about this procedure is it can be done on a not real invasive basis. Once the swelling goes down and some healing is evident Quentin can start his rehab exercises. Again I'm guessing, but I'd think he'd be ready to start rehab early next week, then work through 3 weeks of stabilization exercises, a week of extended spring training, and a week in the minors before returning to the big club.
How does this impact the lineup? Well, it virtually guarantees Will Venable starting the season as your everyday RF. It likely means Jesus Guzman starts the year as the everyday LF. Venable has logged the most games in RF (7), and Guzman was second to Quentin in games played in LF, so far this spring (through Sunday's games).
This is good, because it means Guzman's bat will be in the lineup every day the first 2 weeks of the season. You know, only the team's best hitter last season (by OPS+). The decision on how to keep his bat in the everyday lineup has been kicked down the road, and we'll look at that in a future post as well.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Odds and Ends
Summarizing a bunch of stuff I should have treated before but never seem to get to....
1. The Hardball Times article. Chris Jaffe sends out periodic emails with interesting factoids about the Padres. One of his recent posts was on the 10,000 anniversary of the 1984 NLCS Game 4, affectionately known as 'The Steve Garvey Game'. Worth the read if you have the time.
2. Remaining off-season acquisitions not involving a re-signing:
Here's the list - RHP Anthony Bass, Brad Brach, Andrew Cashner, Ernesto Frieri, Erik Hamren, Nick Vincent; LHP Jose De Paula, Cory Luebke, Juan Oramas, Josh Spence; IF Everth Cabrera, James Darnell, Logan Forsythe, Guzman, Andy Parrino, Edinson Rincon and Jeudy Valdes; OF Blanks, Rymer Liriano, and Blake Tekotte.
I can't believe we have Guzman for the league minimum.
4. As spring training progresses (and as expected) the Padres are reassigning players in camp to other parts of their system. On 12 March they optioned Tekotte to AAA Tucson; Oramas, De Paula, Hamren, and Rincon to AA San Antonio; and Liriano to A Lake Elsinore. They also moved Robbie Erlin and Jason Hagerty to minor league camp. Last Friday Spence and Vincent were optioned to Tucson as well.
Spence's option was surprising, although none of the other moves were. Spence threw 29 2/3 innings last year out of the 'pen, posting a 132 ERA+. He was spectacular after coming up and did taper off as the season progressed, but proved himself a usable part of the bullpen. His option-ing bodes well for Joe Thatcher's recovery from injury and readiness to start the season on the major league roster.
I thought Bud Black would break camp with two LOOGYs. With Spence getting sent down that's not going to happen.
5. Then there's Carlos Quentin's knee surgery, but I hope to discuss that as its own post tomorrow.
No game today; Pads will play 2 split-squad contests tomorrow.
Information in this post was pulled from San Diego Padres press releases.
1. The Hardball Times article. Chris Jaffe sends out periodic emails with interesting factoids about the Padres. One of his recent posts was on the 10,000 anniversary of the 1984 NLCS Game 4, affectionately known as 'The Steve Garvey Game'. Worth the read if you have the time.
2. Remaining off-season acquisitions not involving a re-signing:
- Reds traded their farm system to get Mat Latos. Evaluation: GOOD. Like the acquisitions of Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger should be a horse out of the bullpen shortly, and if Edison Volquez can recapture his 2008 form what a steal he'd be.
- Signed Carlos Quentin for $7M. Evaluation: LIKELY GOOD. Quentin's power to left will play at Petco. His defense is somewhat questionable, and will likely limit him to LF, meaning Kyle Blanks and Jesus Guzman just got bumped.
- Signed Huston Street for
3 yrs/$22M1yr/$7.5M. Evaluation: MEH PLUS. Street replaces the departed Heath Bell. I thought he was ancient but he's only 27 (turns 28 in August); it just SEEMS like he's been around forever. Street will not make anyone pine for Bell - he is a capable closer, having racked up 84 saves the last 3 years with Colorado - however I'd have preferred they spend that kind of money on another hitter vice a closer. UPDATE: Colorado is paying $500K of his salary this year and paid the $500K buyout of his option year for next year.
Here's the list - RHP Anthony Bass, Brad Brach, Andrew Cashner, Ernesto Frieri, Erik Hamren, Nick Vincent; LHP Jose De Paula, Cory Luebke, Juan Oramas, Josh Spence; IF Everth Cabrera, James Darnell, Logan Forsythe, Guzman, Andy Parrino, Edinson Rincon and Jeudy Valdes; OF Blanks, Rymer Liriano, and Blake Tekotte.
I can't believe we have Guzman for the league minimum.
4. As spring training progresses (and as expected) the Padres are reassigning players in camp to other parts of their system. On 12 March they optioned Tekotte to AAA Tucson; Oramas, De Paula, Hamren, and Rincon to AA San Antonio; and Liriano to A Lake Elsinore. They also moved Robbie Erlin and Jason Hagerty to minor league camp. Last Friday Spence and Vincent were optioned to Tucson as well.
Spence's option was surprising, although none of the other moves were. Spence threw 29 2/3 innings last year out of the 'pen, posting a 132 ERA+. He was spectacular after coming up and did taper off as the season progressed, but proved himself a usable part of the bullpen. His option-ing bodes well for Joe Thatcher's recovery from injury and readiness to start the season on the major league roster.
I thought Bud Black would break camp with two LOOGYs. With Spence getting sent down that's not going to happen.
5. Then there's Carlos Quentin's knee surgery, but I hope to discuss that as its own post tomorrow.
No game today; Pads will play 2 split-squad contests tomorrow.
Information in this post was pulled from San Diego Padres press releases.
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Moorad's MLB problem
As you no doubt have heard by now, yesterday San Diego Padres CEO Jeff Moorad withdrew his application to take control of the club. Tim Sullivan wrote a pretty good description of what's going on late yesterday afternoon, and it included some quotes from the Padres press release. The full release is below.
Yes it is just that short. And terse.
There's a lot of intrigue associated with this development. First is the fact that apparently there's sufficient opposition to Moorad assuming control of the Padres to prevent Bud Selig from putting the transfer to a vote. According to published reports, Jerry Reinsdorf and Ken Kendrick are two of the owners putting up the most obstacles. It's as if because Moorad isn't a member of the Good Old Boys network he's not allowed to have a seat at the main table. It's not as if he's never owned part of a team - he was, as we all know, part-owner of the Diamondbacks. Could his exit from Arizona been so messy he made a permanent enemy of Kendrick? Was his negotiating style so caustic he made permanent enemies of 9 owners, who have Reinsdorf as the face of their discontent?
And if his ownership was so galling why in the world did the owners allow Moorad to acquire 49% of the team in the first place? Seems odd.
At first I thought the delay was solely because of Selig's desire for consensus - he is fairly well-known for liking unanimous votes on things. With 2 owners identified publicly as against Moorad's ownership, I thought Selig was just waiting for a chance to speak them privately and convince them to change their minds. Do the rogue owners have the votes to block Moorad's ownership outright? Can nothing Selig says change their position? That assumes Selig wants him as an owner.
All the intrigue over the vote is on one side. Now one has to wonder if, in addition to the concerns about having the votes, if this delay isn't fall-out from the recent financial black eyes MLB has taken. Texas had to file for bankruptcy and be sold. Houston was sold for financial reasons as well. The Wilpons,owners of the Mets, got mixed up with Bernie Madoff and are walking the ragged edge of disaster. And then there's the soap opera in Los Angeles. Despite Moorad's statements to the contrary, there have also been persistent rumors he doesn't have the cash to pull this purchase off. MLB was under diligent in vetting Tom Hicks and Frank McCourt, so naturally the pendulum has now swung to over-conservatism in selling teams to new ownership - see the 9 month delay in finalizing the Astros sale, and now us.
Approval of the TV deal San Diego has made with Fox was held up by MLB pending the transfer of ownership. It apparently was also held up due to concerns the up-front money Fox will pay the Padres would be used to pay off the other investors in the team vice funneled back into players and facilities. Moorad's removing his application for transfer means the TV deal can be approved, and since Moorad doesn't have the final say on where the money goes (one would think John Moores does) it likely won't be spent on reimbursements. Getting the TV deal finalized is a good thing, since the first spring training telecast is less than 10 days away.
This little dance is far from over. At least Moorad has another 2 years to consummate the deal. Maybe he can convince his enemies he's not that bad a guy after all.
The San Diego Padres today announced that Vice Chairman and CEO Jeff Moorad has withdrawn his application to Major League Baseball for a control transfer, in order to expedite MLB approval of the club’s television broadcasting agreement.
“With Opening Day less than one month away, John Moores and I believe our top priority is to ensure that Padres fans will be able to watch broadcasts of what we believe is an exciting baseball team,” said Moorad. “I remain fully committed to the San Diego Padres and our fans, and am looking forward to the 2012 season.”
The club will have no further comment until MLB completes its approval process.
Yes it is just that short. And terse.
There's a lot of intrigue associated with this development. First is the fact that apparently there's sufficient opposition to Moorad assuming control of the Padres to prevent Bud Selig from putting the transfer to a vote. According to published reports, Jerry Reinsdorf and Ken Kendrick are two of the owners putting up the most obstacles. It's as if because Moorad isn't a member of the Good Old Boys network he's not allowed to have a seat at the main table. It's not as if he's never owned part of a team - he was, as we all know, part-owner of the Diamondbacks. Could his exit from Arizona been so messy he made a permanent enemy of Kendrick? Was his negotiating style so caustic he made permanent enemies of 9 owners, who have Reinsdorf as the face of their discontent?
And if his ownership was so galling why in the world did the owners allow Moorad to acquire 49% of the team in the first place? Seems odd.
At first I thought the delay was solely because of Selig's desire for consensus - he is fairly well-known for liking unanimous votes on things. With 2 owners identified publicly as against Moorad's ownership, I thought Selig was just waiting for a chance to speak them privately and convince them to change their minds. Do the rogue owners have the votes to block Moorad's ownership outright? Can nothing Selig says change their position? That assumes Selig wants him as an owner.
All the intrigue over the vote is on one side. Now one has to wonder if, in addition to the concerns about having the votes, if this delay isn't fall-out from the recent financial black eyes MLB has taken. Texas had to file for bankruptcy and be sold. Houston was sold for financial reasons as well. The Wilpons,owners of the Mets, got mixed up with Bernie Madoff and are walking the ragged edge of disaster. And then there's the soap opera in Los Angeles. Despite Moorad's statements to the contrary, there have also been persistent rumors he doesn't have the cash to pull this purchase off. MLB was under diligent in vetting Tom Hicks and Frank McCourt, so naturally the pendulum has now swung to over-conservatism in selling teams to new ownership - see the 9 month delay in finalizing the Astros sale, and now us.
Approval of the TV deal San Diego has made with Fox was held up by MLB pending the transfer of ownership. It apparently was also held up due to concerns the up-front money Fox will pay the Padres would be used to pay off the other investors in the team vice funneled back into players and facilities. Moorad's removing his application for transfer means the TV deal can be approved, and since Moorad doesn't have the final say on where the money goes (one would think John Moores does) it likely won't be spent on reimbursements. Getting the TV deal finalized is a good thing, since the first spring training telecast is less than 10 days away.
This little dance is far from over. At least Moorad has another 2 years to consummate the deal. Maybe he can convince his enemies he's not that bad a guy after all.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Padres extend Cameron Maybin
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| Looking forward to lots of this over the next 6 years. In that uni would be a nice touch too. |
Terms of the agreement were not disclosed in the club announcement, other than to say the contract runs through 2016 and includes a mutual option for 2017.
"Cameron has certainly emerged as a core player,” said Byrnes. “During his time with the Padres, he has impressed us with his play and with his character. He has shown us that he is committed to the Padres, and we are happy to secure his rights through 2017."Maybin, 24, enjoyed a breakout year in his first season with the Padres, establishing new career highs in nearly every offensive category, including games, runs, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, RBI and stolen bases, en route to being unanimously chosen as the Padres 2011 MVP by the San Diego Chapter of the BBWAA. He started 132 games in center field and led the team in runs, triples, stolen bases and multi-hit games.
Thoughts: Maybin is seen as a core Padre going forward, and with good reason. He plays a premium defensive position well in a ballpark that requires athletic outfielders to cover it's spacious facilities. Last season Maybin's defense saved 11 runs (Dewan plus/minus) and placed him third amongst all MLB CF in that category. Not burdened by fear of management holding a quick hook if he didn't produce, he enjoyed his finest season at the plate, and became the 8th Padre to ever steal 40 bases in a season.
The deal buys out all of Maybin's arbitration years, plus the first (and probably second) year he'd be eligible for free agency. Interestingly he's currently the lone player under contract for 2014, much less 2016. That piece of trivia notwithstanding this is an excellent move by the Padres. Now we an put whoever we want in LF and RF because Maybin can cover center from gap to gap.
Update: The SDUT is reporting the deal as 5 years/$25 million, with the option year being worth $7 million if he returns in 2017. Maybin was worth 4.7 WAR (Fangraphs) in 2011 which equated to ~$21.1 million. If he plays at that level during this contract, Padres got him at a bargain price.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Off-Season Acquisition: Andrew Cashner
With FriarFest behind us and pitchers/catchers reported, let's take a look at the Padres off-season acquisitions, working backwards. Today, Andrew Cashner.
Warning: this post may end up more about Jed Hoyer than Cashner.
On January 6th the Padres sent Anthony Rizzo and RHP Zach Cates to Chicago for RHP Andrew Cashner and OF Kyung-Min Na.
Cashner is a former first-round draft pick of the Cubs (19th overall in 2008), so he has talent. However, he lost the 2011 season after straining the rotator cuff in his throwing arm in April of last year. He apparently successfully rehabilitated it with rest and physical therapy, as he threw 10 2/3 innings in September. Cashner hurt his shoulder during a start, which explains why the Padres think he'll eventually be a starter. It is his only major-league start to date.
Cashner has value but at this point in his career it is uncertain if that will be as a starter or reliever. He's also a big risk for the Padres, in that the club acquired a recently-injured pitcher. Yes he passed his physical, but that is no guarantee he won't hurt that arm during spring training. Heck Adam Wainwright passed his physical prior to 2011 spring training and then missed the entire year to Tommy John surgery.
To get Cashner the Padres gave up Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo, evaluated as the third best prospect in the Boston Red Sox organization (and their best power prospect) prior to the 2010 season, came to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Fairly or unfairly, he was seen as the replacement for Gonzalez, and was expected to produce once brought up to the major league level. That he destroyed AAA pitching at Tucson to the tune of a .331/.404/.652 line only added to the hype and expectation. However, once in the majors he was exposed as a left-handed hitter with a long swing who couldn't handle fastballs under his hands. He might eventually be able to fix that - make his swing more compact and learn to turn on an inside fastball.
But that was not going to help him in Petco. The Padres (and their fans) soon learned, to their dismay, that Anthony Rizzo was a completely different hitter from Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzo's strength revolved around his opposite-field power. He posted a .808 OPS at Petco largely because of his ability to hit the ball out to left. Rizzo is a dead-pull left-handed power hitter playing in a ballpark that is death to dead-pull left-handed power hitters.
By all accounts, Rizzo is a mentally tough, courageous, great character guy who happens to play baseball. He's beaten cancer at the ripe old age of 22. Jed Hoyer knew him from his time with the Red Sox and obviously thinks very highly of him. But even great character guys are susceptible to the same doubts that plague you and I. Watching balls he crushed get knocked down in straight-away right, or go into the 411-foot triangle in RC before being caught, can get to the most mentally tough individual. Ask Ryan Ludwick - and he was hitting to left.
Which brings us to Hoyer. Jed relieved Kevin Towers following the 2009 season and was obviously charged with rebuilding the Padres minor league system. He, along with Jason McLeod, did just that; in fact, San Diego's farm was recently ranked as the best in MLB by ESPN's Keith Law. But I think it's safe to say they made a mistake when they acquired Anthony Rizzo for the Padres. His power did not play well in downtown San Diego.
Since that blockbuster trade prior to the 2011 season, Hoyer (and McLeod) have moved on to Chicago's North Side, where Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had also relocated. They reunited with Rizzo via this trade. At Wrigley Rizzo's power should play very well, whether the wind is blowing out or not. The Padres also got a very pleasant surprise in Jesus Guzman's play last season, and traded ace Mat Latos for Yonder Alonso (among others), whom we will talk about in a future post.
Not discussed above, but certainly factoring in the decision to ship Rizzo out of town, are the number of players in the Padre farm system who can play first at the major league level. We've mentioned Guzman and Alonso, but San Diego also has Kyle Blanks who can play the bag. First base is one position where the Padres have a lot of options and can't give each guy lots of at-bats. They're also not going to carry 4 guys on the ML bench who can play first - that's just silly.
So the Padres acquired a recently injured potential starting pitcher for the best prospect in their farm system. This trade may turn out to be a wash, but today it looks pretty lopsided in favor of the Cubs.
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| Starter? Reliever? Time will tell |
On January 6th the Padres sent Anthony Rizzo and RHP Zach Cates to Chicago for RHP Andrew Cashner and OF Kyung-Min Na.
Cashner is a former first-round draft pick of the Cubs (19th overall in 2008), so he has talent. However, he lost the 2011 season after straining the rotator cuff in his throwing arm in April of last year. He apparently successfully rehabilitated it with rest and physical therapy, as he threw 10 2/3 innings in September. Cashner hurt his shoulder during a start, which explains why the Padres think he'll eventually be a starter. It is his only major-league start to date.
Cashner has value but at this point in his career it is uncertain if that will be as a starter or reliever. He's also a big risk for the Padres, in that the club acquired a recently-injured pitcher. Yes he passed his physical, but that is no guarantee he won't hurt that arm during spring training. Heck Adam Wainwright passed his physical prior to 2011 spring training and then missed the entire year to Tommy John surgery.
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| So much for the Anthony Rizzo Era. |
But that was not going to help him in Petco. The Padres (and their fans) soon learned, to their dismay, that Anthony Rizzo was a completely different hitter from Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzo's strength revolved around his opposite-field power. He posted a .808 OPS at Petco largely because of his ability to hit the ball out to left. Rizzo is a dead-pull left-handed power hitter playing in a ballpark that is death to dead-pull left-handed power hitters.
By all accounts, Rizzo is a mentally tough, courageous, great character guy who happens to play baseball. He's beaten cancer at the ripe old age of 22. Jed Hoyer knew him from his time with the Red Sox and obviously thinks very highly of him. But even great character guys are susceptible to the same doubts that plague you and I. Watching balls he crushed get knocked down in straight-away right, or go into the 411-foot triangle in RC before being caught, can get to the most mentally tough individual. Ask Ryan Ludwick - and he was hitting to left.
Which brings us to Hoyer. Jed relieved Kevin Towers following the 2009 season and was obviously charged with rebuilding the Padres minor league system. He, along with Jason McLeod, did just that; in fact, San Diego's farm was recently ranked as the best in MLB by ESPN's Keith Law. But I think it's safe to say they made a mistake when they acquired Anthony Rizzo for the Padres. His power did not play well in downtown San Diego.
Since that blockbuster trade prior to the 2011 season, Hoyer (and McLeod) have moved on to Chicago's North Side, where Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had also relocated. They reunited with Rizzo via this trade. At Wrigley Rizzo's power should play very well, whether the wind is blowing out or not. The Padres also got a very pleasant surprise in Jesus Guzman's play last season, and traded ace Mat Latos for Yonder Alonso (among others), whom we will talk about in a future post.
Not discussed above, but certainly factoring in the decision to ship Rizzo out of town, are the number of players in the Padre farm system who can play first at the major league level. We've mentioned Guzman and Alonso, but San Diego also has Kyle Blanks who can play the bag. First base is one position where the Padres have a lot of options and can't give each guy lots of at-bats. They're also not going to carry 4 guys on the ML bench who can play first - that's just silly.
So the Padres acquired a recently injured potential starting pitcher for the best prospect in their farm system. This trade may turn out to be a wash, but today it looks pretty lopsided in favor of the Cubs.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Off-Season Acquisition: Micah Owings
With FanFriarFest behind us and pitchers/catchers reporting in less than a week, let's take a look at the Padres off-season acquisitions, working backwards.
On 2 Feb the Padres signed Micah Owings to a one-year deal for a million dollars. Owings is currently on the 40-man roster.
Owings started 64 games his first three years in the league, but the last two years has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen. He has pitched better as a reliever, holding hitters to a .220/.338/.369 line and a .262 BABIP (compared to .264/.341/.442, .282 as a starter). He is relatively tough against right-handed hitters (.712 OPS, 2.31 K/BB ratio), but lefties eat him up (.830 OPS, 1.20 K/BB ratio).
Owings throws a cutter, and it's a weapon. Last season it had the highest linear weight of any pitch he threw (3.3). His slider (0.8) was the only other pitch with a positive value. He gets clubbed when he throws a straight fastball, and he knows it, which is why he only throws it ~3% of the time.
If Owings makes the team I would envision him as a guy who eats innings when the Padres trail or lead by 3 or more runs, and facing a part of the order without lefties or switch hitters.
The intriguing part of this signing is Owings' bat. Assuming the Padres devise a way to get Carlos Quentin, Jesus Guzman, Yonder Alonso, and Chase Headley in the lineup together on a recurring basis, they project to be thin on the bench. Check this out:
Career ISO.
Will Owings break camp with the Padres? That remains to be seen. Only Street, Gregerson, Thatcher, and Cashner are assured slots in the bullpen on Opening Day. Frieri, Spence, and Bass have a leg up but I'm guessing they'll be fighting for a roster spot. If Owings can get hitters out consistently he'll make the club, and his bat can be a wild card for Bud Black to play during games.
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| More Power Than Mark Kotsay... |
Owings started 64 games his first three years in the league, but the last two years has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen. He has pitched better as a reliever, holding hitters to a .220/.338/.369 line and a .262 BABIP (compared to .264/.341/.442, .282 as a starter). He is relatively tough against right-handed hitters (.712 OPS, 2.31 K/BB ratio), but lefties eat him up (.830 OPS, 1.20 K/BB ratio).
Owings throws a cutter, and it's a weapon. Last season it had the highest linear weight of any pitch he threw (3.3). His slider (0.8) was the only other pitch with a positive value. He gets clubbed when he throws a straight fastball, and he knows it, which is why he only throws it ~3% of the time.
If Owings makes the team I would envision him as a guy who eats innings when the Padres trail or lead by 3 or more runs, and facing a part of the order without lefties or switch hitters.
The intriguing part of this signing is Owings' bat. Assuming the Padres devise a way to get Carlos Quentin, Jesus Guzman, Yonder Alonso, and Chase Headley in the lineup together on a recurring basis, they project to be thin on the bench. Check this out:
Career ISO.
- Mark Kotsay: .132
- Logan Forsythe: .073
- Chris Denorfia: .124
- Will Venable: .161
- Jeff Baker: .130
- Micah Owings: .222
Will Owings break camp with the Padres? That remains to be seen. Only Street, Gregerson, Thatcher, and Cashner are assured slots in the bullpen on Opening Day. Frieri, Spence, and Bass have a leg up but I'm guessing they'll be fighting for a roster spot. If Owings can get hitters out consistently he'll make the club, and his bat can be a wild card for Bud Black to play during games.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Off-Season Acquisition: Jeff Suppan
With FanFest behind us and pitchers/catchers reporting in less than a week, let's take a look at the Padres off-season acquisitions, starting with the most recent.
On 8 Feb the Padres agreed to terms with right-hander Jeff Suppan on a minor league deal that included an invitation to spring training. From the Padres Media Relations announcement:
So why bring him to San Diego?
Perhaps two reasons. One - he is another character guy in the Mark Kotsay mold. Suppan is a sub-500 career pitcher but he has had a successful career by most standards. Should he make the big club it will be his 17th season in the majors. He has pitched in 4 post-seasons including 2 World Series; he was the MVP of the 2006 NLCS while with St Louis. He's seen it all and would be a good sounding board for the young pitchers on this roster.
The second reason is his ability to spot start. With Wade LeBlanc gone the Padres don't have anyone with major league experience in 'hot standby' down at AAA. Should one of their starters get hurt - and with 3/5 of those guys coming back from recent surgery, that's entirely possible - Suppan could step in and start for them. This becomes especially important if you believe Anthony Bass is not ready to start at the major league level; there would be no need to yank him out of the bullpen to start if you have a guy like Suppan available.
Suppan is a local guy (graduate of Crespi HS in Encino CA) and I believe he still makes his home in SoCal. I know he has a restaurant in Woodland Hills. He knows his best years are behind him and this is a chance to keep his hand in the game while playing closer to home than he has been able to over the last decade - even if he ends up spending a lot of time in Tucson.
This is a low-risk, potential reward kind of signing. Good on the Padres for taking a no-obligation risk on Jeff Suppan.
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| Suppan in his salad days |
In 2011, the 37-year old right hander went 11-8 with a 4.78 ERA over 28 games (27 starts) for Triple-A Omaha in the Kansas City Royals organization.meaning Suppan hasn't thrown a pitch to major league hitters since throwing six shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies on October 3, 2010. It also means Suppan couldn't crack a lousy Royals rotation that gave gave Kyle Davies 13 starts - the same Kyle Davies that owns the worst quality start percentage by any pitcher in the history of the game.
So why bring him to San Diego?
Perhaps two reasons. One - he is another character guy in the Mark Kotsay mold. Suppan is a sub-500 career pitcher but he has had a successful career by most standards. Should he make the big club it will be his 17th season in the majors. He has pitched in 4 post-seasons including 2 World Series; he was the MVP of the 2006 NLCS while with St Louis. He's seen it all and would be a good sounding board for the young pitchers on this roster.
The second reason is his ability to spot start. With Wade LeBlanc gone the Padres don't have anyone with major league experience in 'hot standby' down at AAA. Should one of their starters get hurt - and with 3/5 of those guys coming back from recent surgery, that's entirely possible - Suppan could step in and start for them. This becomes especially important if you believe Anthony Bass is not ready to start at the major league level; there would be no need to yank him out of the bullpen to start if you have a guy like Suppan available.
Suppan is a local guy (graduate of Crespi HS in Encino CA) and I believe he still makes his home in SoCal. I know he has a restaurant in Woodland Hills. He knows his best years are behind him and this is a chance to keep his hand in the game while playing closer to home than he has been able to over the last decade - even if he ends up spending a lot of time in Tucson.
This is a low-risk, potential reward kind of signing. Good on the Padres for taking a no-obligation risk on Jeff Suppan.
Friday, February 3, 2012
Counterpoint: Ship McClellan to the Padres
Last week rumors circulated the St Louis Cardinals were looking to ship starter/reliever Kyle McClellan out of town. Baltimore, Arizona, and San Diego were mentioned as potential destinations. The rumors prompted this post on the Cardinal/Royal blog I-70 baseball.
You probably missed it. I didn't because I wrote it.
After it published I got some comments, which is unusual. The comments attacked the premise, which is not unusual for comments on my writing. Apparently I'm controversial. Whatever. I answered in brief in the comments because let's face it, who wants to read a diatribe in the comments section? Nobody. However there was more to say, and since I've suddenly got a few minutes I'll say them here.
Why would the Padres show interest in McClellan? Two reasons I can think of. First, although their starting rotation is set for 2012 2/5 of it is coming off a season-ending injury. Moseley's trick shoulder is his non-throwing shoulder but that injury still cost him the second half of last season, and Richard is coming off arm surgery. Adding McClellan to the bullpen would give the club another guy, along with Anthony Bass, who could spot start if either Moseley's or Richard's rehab suffers a setback.
Second, the team lost Bell, Adams, and Qualls from last year's bullpen, meaning they will turn over a lot of innings to inexperienced guys. Getting Huston Street solidifies the back of the pen and does not force the team to place Brad Brach in the closer's role too early or Luke Gregerson in a role he's not shown aptitude for. The Padres still need some guys; getting McClellan, a proven eighth inning guy, would push Gregerson back to the seventh where he excels.
On the Cardinal side it is hard to see who in the Padres system they would be interested in. The team has stated they don't want to take on salary in any McClellan deal. What does San Diego have to offer?
- Padres have a surplus of OF. So does St Louis.
- Padres have a surplus of 1B. Even though St Louis just lost a first baseman of some note they are set at the position for the future.
- St Louis does not have a need at third, their rotation is high-priced and set, and if they are shopping McClellan they clearly suffer from a surplus of bullpen arms.
- The Cardinals are thin at second and short, but so are the Padres so no trade involving those positions is likely.
What does that leave? Catcher. Which was the subject of my article.
Now it should be noted, again, the I-70 article was written from the Cardinal fan's perspective. The Padres would be crazy to trade either Hedges or Grandal straight-up for McClellan. That would be on par with Ray Lankford for Woody Williams.
You probably missed it. I didn't because I wrote it.
After it published I got some comments, which is unusual. The comments attacked the premise, which is not unusual for comments on my writing. Apparently I'm controversial. Whatever. I answered in brief in the comments because let's face it, who wants to read a diatribe in the comments section? Nobody. However there was more to say, and since I've suddenly got a few minutes I'll say them here.
Why would the Padres show interest in McClellan? Two reasons I can think of. First, although their starting rotation is set for 2012 2/5 of it is coming off a season-ending injury. Moseley's trick shoulder is his non-throwing shoulder but that injury still cost him the second half of last season, and Richard is coming off arm surgery. Adding McClellan to the bullpen would give the club another guy, along with Anthony Bass, who could spot start if either Moseley's or Richard's rehab suffers a setback.
Second, the team lost Bell, Adams, and Qualls from last year's bullpen, meaning they will turn over a lot of innings to inexperienced guys. Getting Huston Street solidifies the back of the pen and does not force the team to place Brad Brach in the closer's role too early or Luke Gregerson in a role he's not shown aptitude for. The Padres still need some guys; getting McClellan, a proven eighth inning guy, would push Gregerson back to the seventh where he excels.
On the Cardinal side it is hard to see who in the Padres system they would be interested in. The team has stated they don't want to take on salary in any McClellan deal. What does San Diego have to offer?
- Padres have a surplus of OF. So does St Louis.
- Padres have a surplus of 1B. Even though St Louis just lost a first baseman of some note they are set at the position for the future.
- St Louis does not have a need at third, their rotation is high-priced and set, and if they are shopping McClellan they clearly suffer from a surplus of bullpen arms.
- The Cardinals are thin at second and short, but so are the Padres so no trade involving those positions is likely.
What does that leave? Catcher. Which was the subject of my article.
Now it should be noted, again, the I-70 article was written from the Cardinal fan's perspective. The Padres would be crazy to trade either Hedges or Grandal straight-up for McClellan. That would be on par with Ray Lankford for Woody Williams.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
And Then There Were Two
Padres had 11 arbitration-eligible players unsigned on Monday. As of Tuesday, all but 2 are signed. Only Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley remain.
If the MLB.com depth chart is to believed, both pitchers are expected to be members of the 2012 rotation, along with Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, and Edison Volquez. With Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc traded, San Diego doesn't have many fall-back options should they not sign either or both. Of the non-roster invitees, only Matt Palmer has major-league starting experience, which amounts to 20 starts over 4 years. He's also only thrown 49 innings in the majors since the end of the 2009 season. Not much of a stop-gap option.
Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland are the long-term solutions (as well as possibly Anthony Bass), but the former 2 are at least a year away and the latter one is slotted for more bullpen experience. Many have argued Bass is not yet ready to be a full-time starter. As time permits I hope to take a look at that.
If nothing else, the good news is Padres payroll is headed up. They had the third-lowest payroll on Opening Day 2011 and likely will be in the bottom quarter of all teams this season. They still have a ways to go to be competitive, but at least the team is trending in the right direction.
If the MLB.com depth chart is to believed, both pitchers are expected to be members of the 2012 rotation, along with Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, and Edison Volquez. With Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc traded, San Diego doesn't have many fall-back options should they not sign either or both. Of the non-roster invitees, only Matt Palmer has major-league starting experience, which amounts to 20 starts over 4 years. He's also only thrown 49 innings in the majors since the end of the 2009 season. Not much of a stop-gap option.
Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland are the long-term solutions (as well as possibly Anthony Bass), but the former 2 are at least a year away and the latter one is slotted for more bullpen experience. Many have argued Bass is not yet ready to be a full-time starter. As time permits I hope to take a look at that.
If nothing else, the good news is Padres payroll is headed up. They had the third-lowest payroll on Opening Day 2011 and likely will be in the bottom quarter of all teams this season. They still have a ways to go to be competitive, but at least the team is trending in the right direction.
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