Bell, Harang Offered Arbitration

First, a bit of self-promotion.  I'm providing a couple of articles for the Baseball Digest website on the Padres.  The first went up on the site Tuesday, and yes - it's yet another 2011 season review.  If you have some time I hope you surf over there and take a read.  You can link to it from here. 

Baseball Digest is the oldest baseball magazine in the US, currently published 6 times a year.  They are trying to expand their on-line presence, which includes content different from what appears in the magazine.  Thanks in advance for reading.

Back to the Padres.  Since the news came out a week ago, on the day before Thanksgiving, I missed it, but it included some of the news we've been waiting for.  San Diego offered arbitration to Heath Bell and Aaron Harang.

The Bell decision has been discussed ad nauseaum both here and on other forums.  Based on how the closer market has initially played out (see the contract offer to Ryan Madson and contract signed by Jonathan Papelbon), Bell will likely make around $10M to pitch in 2012 regardless of where he toils.  For a Padres team likely to not have a payroll north of $50M, his salary represents at least 20% of the total team payroll.  That is a lot - especially considering he will throw less than 80 innings next season. 

From a PR perspective the Padres were forced to offer arbitration to Bell.  He is the biggest name draw currently on the roster.  He has previously stated he wants to pitch here and the Padres can use all the good PR they can get.  From a practical perspective, because of their limited financial assets this team has to build through the draft, and getting the 2 compensation picks for Bell is a must.  Now the team has to hope he both does not sign a free-agent deal with someone else before 9 December and declines arbitration, so they get those picks.

Which brings us to Harang.  Did you know he was a Type B free agent?  He led the Padres in wins but was only worth 0.6 WAR according to Fangraphs (1.9 by Baseball Reference).  This arbitration offer is really interesting to me, but from a social perspective vice a baseball one.  Recall that the Padres held a mutual option on Harang for 2012, at $5M.  Aaron wanted to return but San Diego declined to pick up his option.  Now they've offered him arbitration.

So basically what they're saying is, 'We wouldn't mind having you back, but we think you're worth less than $5M, and what we really want is the draft pick.'  I'd have loved to be a fly-on-the-wall for the conversation between GM Josh Byrnes and Harang's agent.  Can you even have that discussion without insulting the player?  The poetic-justice outcome here would be for Harang to accept arbitration and get a pay bump north of the $5M he was to have received if the option had been honored.

Heath Bell's contract resolution will be more extensively covered, but I for one can't wait to see how Harang's arbitration case plays out.

Game Reflections: #59 and #60 vs Astros

The mood in the ballpark the day after a win at home is so much more positive than after a loss.  It's tangible.  It was not so noticeable on Saturday but it was blatantly obvious Sunday afternoon.  Nice to see the Padres carry their road roll with them on the plane for the first time this season.

By taking 3 of 4 from Houston the Padres won their first series of the season at home.  Some thoughts from the weekend's games (which I was happily able to attend):

- Padres scored in the first inning on both days.  Their 2 runs in the first Saturday matched the number of runs they had scored on Saturday at home all season.  Then they jumped on 20-year old Jordan Lyles for 3 Sunday.

- Hunter Pence has got to be in the top 5 of 'best players no one knows'.  He only had 2 hits in the 2 games I saw but hit several balls hard.  Pence left town with a 17-game hitting streak, the longest of his career.

- Chase Headley won't make that list but he is locked in at the plate right now.  He had a single on Saturday and 2 doubles Sunday.  Headley also has a hit streak in progress (15 games).  There's been a mild debate on where he should hit in the order.  With his high OBP and low power numbers I'd begun to think leadoff or #2 were the best spots, however, so long as he's hitting #3 is fine.  He's getting on in front of Ludwick, and that's essential for this offense.

- Logan Forsythe hammered a double in the third inning Saturday to drive in his first ML run.  Well done, kid.

- Aneury Rodriguez pitched pretty well for the Astros but Aaron Harang was better.  Ernesto Frieri tried to make things interesting in the ninth (although in my opinion he got squeezed big time by Todd Tichenor; the 3-0 pitch to Sanchez was a strike, as was the first one to Downs), but Bell recovered in time to strand the tying runs in scoring position.

- The interesting thing about Saturday's game was how many late swings the Astros had.  By my count they hit 11 balls to right (2-for-11 on those balls) off him.  Harang must hide the ball real well, or at least was hiding the ball real well Saturday.  Eric Patterson played very well in RF on the night; I thought he gave up a little bit on one foul ball near the Astro bullpen, but his running catch in the third inning (slamming into the wall) was a big play, as was his throw to the plate in the second.

Good game Saturday. And garden gnomes to boot!

- Ryan Ludwick got applause when he walked to the plate for his first AB Sunday.  It marked the first time I can remember him getting that reception here this season.

- When Alberto Gonzalez got hit Saturday the fans booed.  When Ludwick got hit Sunday they didn't.  Either Saturday's fans were looking for a reason to boo, or they realize the difference between taking a ball off the shirt (midsection) and taking one off the shoulder (on a ball headed for Gonzalez's head). Ludwick got pounded inside Sunday in all his AB.

- After Latos struck out in the second, Astro catcher Robinson Cancel chucked the ball into RF.  Funny.

- Astro 3B Chris Johnson got hit leading off the second Saturday night, then Ludwick and C Rob Johnson got hit Sunday.  Lyles was wild, so I don't think there was intent to retaliate.

- Not in the box score, but Brad Hawpe maed a fantastic play on an errant pickoff attempt by Rob Johnson in the fifth inning Sunday.  Otherwise that ball's in RF and the Astros have (minimum) runners on second and third with 0 outs.  Pence's hit would have then made the score 4-3 and the rest of the game is very different.  Big play by Hawpe.

- Jason Bourgeois is hitting .407.  That is not a misprint.  He's the 4th outfielder on that team.  I'm thinking he's trade bait in July.

- Bourn and Bourgeois are base stealers and they really ran on Johnson Sunday.  Remember the troubles Padres pitchers (especially Chris Young) had a couple of years ago holding runners on?  Seems those slow times to the plate have never quite been corrected.  Some of it might be on the catchers, but to my eye most of it is on slower than average delivery times to the plate.

- Speaking of steals, Rob Johnson stole a base in the sixth inning Sunday.  It's actually his 4th career stolen base (he's also been caught stealing twice).  Johnson's last successful steal was April of last year, off Matt Wieters (FWIW, besides Robinson Cancel he's burned Kelly Shoppach and Victor Martinez). 

The big key in these 2 games?  The Padres played good defense, and they've hit with RISP.  They were 4-for-50 through the first game of the Washington series; they were 21-for-56 going into Sunday's game (where they went 2-for-17.  the .117 average is bad, but the had SEVENTEEN at bats with a runner on second or third yesterday.  Wow).  The law of averages really does work.

Next up is the scuffling Colorado Rockies.  San Diego could be in third by mid-week, and wouldn't that be nice.