Game Reflections - Game #19 Vs Phillies

Went to 2/3 of the game last night.  We left after 6 1/3 innings (a) to beat traffic, and (b) because you can only sit through so much offensive futility.  Some impressions.

1.  I tweeted last night about 'another SD home game, Padres no-hit through 3 again."  That's not entirely correct.  What is true is the Padres have gone hitless the first time through the order twice, and I've been in the ballpark on both occasions. Including last night's home game, the Padres have gotten their first hit of the game:

• First inning - twice
• Second inning -four times
• Third inning - once
• Fourth inning - once
• Fifth inning - once

2.  Last night was an interesting one from a fashion perspective.  I should have taken a picture or some video of the ladies in question, but I walked to my seat behind 4 young women wearing some of the tightest jeans I've yet seen - and platform heels to boot.  EVERY guy they walked past turned around to look, so I guess their clothing choices had the intended effect.

3.  It becomes frustrating to watch our offense routinely unable to either drive runners in from third, or to hit for extra bases.  It becomes even more frustrating to watch opposing teams come in and hit the crap out of the ball.  I'm am beginning to believe part of the problem with the Padres is psychological.  They continually hear about this ballpark and how it is a pitcher's park, and how you can't hit the long ball here.  Whether or not you believe it, it eventually seeps into your consciousness.  Other NL teams don't have to listen to that over and over again about their home ballpark, or about the park they come into.  They just hit; and seem to have better results in San Diego than the Padres do.

4.  This team really misses Jerry Hairston Jr.  How many times did we see him come to the plate last year, with the team down early, and hit a home run or start a rally?  From a perspective with no access to the clubhouse, it seems his leadership helped steady the 2010 Padres.  I don't see any evidence that type of leadership is present on this team.  Every 3 run deficit feels like game over; there's no sense the Padres can claw their back into those games.

Case in point - leading off the fourth Jorge Cantu had a 14-pitch at bat.  He eventually struck out, but it felt like a moral victory.  You know you're offense is struggling when a 14-pitch strike out feels like a victory.

5.  Cameron Maybin flat-out misplayed Ben Francisco's HR ball.  I initially thought he just backpedaled into the CF wall, but after seeing the replay he took a good route to the ball.  It seemed live he had no idea how close to the wall he was when he was trying to catch the ball.  If he jumps that's an out.

Ludwick?  Overran it, but Polanco was out a third and the blue blew the call.  Denorfia?  Looked like he lost it in the lights initially, because he didn't break on the ball at all.

Padres try again tonight - Richard vs Hamels.

I did have a Podcast last night - it can be heard here.  Two errata to correct from the discussion - I said last night was the fourth time the Padres had been shut out, that's wrong; I forgot about their Monday shutout at the hands of the Cubs.  I also said last night was the first time someone other than Moseley had been shut out, and that's also wrong; Tim Stauffer started that same game Monday.  The Astro/Padre game I reference during the show happened on July 2, 2010, and indeed ended 3-0.

Game Cancelled, Padres to play two

From the Padres media relations staff, tonights Padres/Cubs game has been postponed to tomorrow. Weather reports from Chicago are forecasting thunderstorms, rain (probably the freezing kind) and temps in the mid-30s.

Tomorrow will be much better, overcast and a high of 43. Because we must not deprive ownership of gate receipts, there will be a day/night double header. First game at 11:20 pacific time, second game at 4:05.

If there is any problem with the scheduling philosophy as it currently stands, it is the one trip per year to cities outside our division. Any hiccup in the schedule puts teams in a bind. Either they do everything possible to get the games in as scheduled, or they make sure the games are played within the dates scheduled, or risk a losing an off-day later in the season so they can fly back in for one game.

all in the name of the unbalanced schedule. Interleague does not help, but the unbalanced schedule is the culprit.

No word if Moseley will still start tomorrow. I suspect he will.

Last I'm flying back I into town late tonight, so the Tuesday Podcast will be cancelled.

Splitsville

The Padres first come-from-behind win happened on Opening Day in St Louis.  They were not able to do it again until last Wednesday vs the Reds.  Sunday they made it 3 wins in their last 5 games, and two of the come-from-behind variety, with the 8-6 win in Houston.

Before Sunday's win I was sure the only game San Diego would take in Houston was the one JA Happ started, because he's on my fantasy team.  It's been that kind of season so far for the kid.  It was nice to see some other fantasy owner suffer this week as well.

The last 5 games the Padres have scored 3, 0, 4, 3, and 8 runs.  The previous 5 hey had scored 2, 0, 7, 2, and 2 runs.  18 runs the last 5, 13 the previous five.  I'll call that progress, even if 4 of those games were played in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park.

So it's off to Chicago and the Cubs.

I'll look to make these posts longer as the season goes, and include some actual analysis.  Right now I'm just trying to get back into the blogging groove.

Playing Catch Up

A little bit of free time appeared this morning, so let's play a little catch-up.

First the Podcast has returned! The latest two 30 minute episodes can be heard here and here. With the depth of offensive woes the Padres were experiencing at the time of both shows, I did focus on that. But I did cover other things. Give the 2 shows a whirl.

On Thursday's show I speculated that the lack of run support Dustin Moseley has gotten in his first three starts was historic. Thanks to the good folks in Media Relations with the club, we have an answer. They checked with the Elias Sports Bureau, and

The last time a starting pitcher's team was shut out in each of his first three starts to begin a season was in 2008 when the Detroit Tigers were blanked in each of Kenny Rogers' first 3 starts. Before Rogers, the last pitcher with no run support in his first three starts was Rudy May for the 1972 California Angels

Two times in the last 40 years demonstrates just how rare what has happened to Moseley is. It is a historical anomaly that the last two pitchers hung out to dry like this were left-handed. So it's been over 40 years since a righty experienced this level of no run support pain.

After Ryan Ludwick struck out Thursday night to end the eighth, I thought he and Moseley needed to start a support group to deal with failure. Ludwick could spend 10 minutes bemoaning his loss of hitting ability. Moseley could respond by slapping Ludwick around for 10 minutes, screaming HOW ABOUT SCORING SOME RUNS FOR ME JACKASSES?!?!?!

Speaking of Ludwick, he finally snapped his 0-for-the-season with runners in scoring position with a 2-RBI single in the seventh last night, snapping a 1-all tie. There was a report via Twitter (I believe Corey Brock sent the note) that Ludwick discovered he was too hunched over at the plate, and has straightened up so he can see the ball better. One wonders how long his batting stance has been tweaked, and if that's been the issue with his sub-.200 batting average since coming over from St Louis. If he now goes on a tear with the bat, we will know.

One other thing to consider: Ludwick temporarily snapped out of his funk last year when Bud Black dropped him to the bottom third of the order. This team needs Ludwick in the middle of the lineup; I hope the source of his troubles is not the pressure he puts on himself to perform as a 3-4-5 hitter (and before you remind me he hit in middle of the order with the Cardinals, he had some guy named Pujols carrying the majority of the load there).

More good news: the Padres have won 2 out of 3 for the first time since their first series of the year. They look to keep the momentum going this weekend.

Nice Start

Yeah the Cardinals have tortured San Diego over the last decade.  I'm not talking about just the 3 NLDS losses to those guys, where San Diego dropped 9 of the 10 games played.  Since the start of the 2006 season St Louis was 14-4 in Missouri against the Padres.  This includes the infamous rain-delayed Sunday game in 2008 when Colby Rasmus hit a 3-run bomb to stun Heath Bell and the Padres.

Nothing ever seems go to right at Busch.  Which is why winning this Opening Weekend series was so sweet.  San Diego has not won the season series from the Cardinals since 2006, which incidentally was the last time the Padres won a series in St Louis.  In fact the Padres had won 2 series there the last FOURTEEN YEARS until this weekend.  Here's a little tidbit: the last 3 times San Diego has won a series at Busch the Padres have made the playoffs.

I'm not telling the Front Office to start printing those ducats, but that's a nice early sign for the season to come isn't it?

We all know how important Ryan Ludwick is to the 2011 team, and the Padres could not have picked a better park for the season to start off in than Busch.  Ludwick's history there is well-known; if there's one place on this earth to get his confidence high early in the season it's in St Louis.  Ryan's 2 for 10 line might look a lot like last fall, but his 3 walks mean his batter's eye has returned, and he hit several balls hard during the series, albeit it in tough luck (most notably the sixth inning Sunday).

We wondered how the offense would look.  San Diego scored 16 runs in the series.  Yes they got shut out yesterday, but they still scored 16 runs in the series.

Most importantly, the pitchers held up their end of the bargain.  The team limited St Louis to 8 runs total, and held Pujols to 1 RBI (and 2-13 overall).  Dustin Moseley pitched far, far better than I expected he would; he pitched well enough to win, but Cardinal starter Jamie Garcia was just a little bit better.

That's a lot of reasons to be happy with a 2-1 start to the season.  Now the Padres come home to face the Giants, Dodgers, and Reds on their first homestand of the season.  I'll be at the game tomorrow, hope you are too.

Programming Note:  Tuesday's Podcast will be cancelled.  Following the game I have an 8:40 softball game, so there' s no way I'll be in any shape to prattle on for 30 minutes.  We'll pick up again on Thursday.

Season Starts Today

Padres open in St Louis today in about 15 minutes.  I apologize for not posting at all these past 2 months, that should rectify itself once the season starts.  I've got a Podcast scheduled for tonight, so we can talk about the game then too.

New Podcast Schedule

We're here in New England again, which means cell phone reception is spotty at best.  It also means our normal time slot for the Podcast would be 1am Eastern time, and that's just crazy.  You gotta sleep sometime.

This week was also to be the inaugural Tuesday podcast, but, and I'm sure this comes as no surprise to some, I've cancelled that show.

Thursday's show is on, but will be at 8PM PACIFIC, so plan accordingly.  Seriously - we want to hear from you in the chat room.

Baseball Digest and Podcasts

A quick hitter.

Baseball Digest has been doing a birthday post each day during the off-season. Recently I started contributing to those posts.  My second one is up today on former Tigers pitcher Joe Coleman.

There will be a Podcast tonight, the first 30 min version, at 10pm PST.  Feel free to stop by.

Lastly, and sadly, Mr. David Nuffer, who spoke at Saturday's SABR meeting passed away this morning.  He will be missed.

Ted Williams Chapter SABR Day Recap

My wife and I attended yesterday's Ted Williams Chapter SABR meeting.  It was, as always, a great forum and there was a lively discussion.  The meeting started at 0900 and ran until at least 1300; she and I had to leave to relieve our baby sitter, otherwise we would have stayed for the entire program.

John Ingham gave a talk on an article he recently wrote about the 1967 Pirates.  The 1966 Pittsburgh team finished 22 games over .500 and 3 games behind the Dodgers for the NL title.  Many pundits thought all the Pirates needed was improvement at third and in the rotation, which they thought they achieved through trade in the off-season, most notably by acquiring Maury Wills from Los Angeles.

That 1967 edition didn't fare nearly as well as expected, finishing at .500, 20 1/2 games behind the Cardinals.  Mr. Ingham went on to say the team was reported by contemporary press as 'wracked with dissention' in the clubhouse, which likely contributed to their poor performance on the field, and what he thought contributed to that dissention.  I will not give away his thoughts - the article is under consideration for publication at NINE, a journal of baseball history and culture published by the University of Nebraska Press - but I will tell you his thesis centers around three large personalities.  Roberto Clemente, Wills, and manager Harry 'The Hat' Walker.  It was quite interesting.

On an unrelated subject, I finally got some insight why Joe Morgan was traded from Houston to Cincinnati (Walker landed as manager there after being fired by Pittsburgh during the 1967 season), and I look at the famous Juan Marichal/Johnny Roseboro brawl in a new way.

Next we heard from David Nuffer, a Ernest Hemingway buff.  One might wonder what place a Hemingway discussion has in a baseball forum.  Aside from this being a learned group (yes, shameless intellectual promotion there), Hemingway was a bit of a baseball fan.  According to Nuffer, he played baseball in high school, and while living in Cuba built a makeshift baseball field on his estate for the local boys to use.  In fact, one of those boys became his majordomo, and eventually published a memoir of those days titled Hemingway's Cuban Son.

Nuffer is a man of some local fame; apparently he held up signs behind the first base dugout back in the Jack Murphy days.  He is a character, pulling out a card which had a herald piece on it, and saying after it finished "I need a proper introduction."  I would have liked to have known him when he was younger and not wheelchair bound.

Anyway he talked about The Old Man and The Sea, one of Hemingway's great works.  In the pages of that novel there are 7 references to baseball, and embedded in those passages are 9 references to Joe DiMaggio - 'the Great Dimaggio', as the old man calls him.  Finally he concluded by reading from the only poem Hemingway is known to have written, called 'The Opening Game' (1912).  A great presentation; it was worth making the drive to Petco just to hear him speak.

After the break,

The Bartlett Deal and Trevor Hoffman

Padres Trail:  The Cutting Edge of commentary on stories at least 24 hours old.

The Padres signed Jason Bartlett to a 2-year deal worth $11 million guaranteed.  There is a club option for a third year at $5.5M, with a $1.5M buyout.  Cot's Baseball Contracts reports the contract is incentivized, meaning Bartlett may guarantee the third year if he meets certain performance thresholds.  They don't tell you what those are sadly.  So much for the 'Is Jason Bartlett returning in 2013' meter I was planning to put in the margin.

Assuming both Orlando Hudson and Bartlett play in San Diego for the duration of their contracts, 2011/2012 will be the first 2-year stretch with the same two men playing second and short, respectively, since 2004/2005 (Mark Loretta and Khalil Greene, if you are interested).  That's a lot of turnover in the middle infield over the past 5 seasons.  No wonder GM Jed Hoyer made it a priority to stabilize the situation at those two positions.

How good of a deal is this?  Fangraphs' Eno Sarris discussed it yesterday and thinks the Padres spent wisely.  I don't see a reason to disagree with his logic, although how good a signing this is will depend largely on whether Bartlett can remain healthy all season.  If, as Sarris supposes, the dramatic decline in his range last season is due to lower body injuries, then hopefully he (and the Padres training staff) can develop a strategy to prevent that.

*************
Trevor Hoffman has officially retired, and has been invited to become a part of the Padre front office for 2011.  I didn't realize he is 43 years old.  Trevor leaves the game as it's all-time saves leader, and the only man to save 600 games in a career.  I would imagine the Padres will retire his number at some point this season.

There are a couple of things I like about how he's handled his departure from the game.

1. No one-day contract.  This always struck me as silly.  Great players have already cemented their place in their fan's hearts.  Besides, great players have a lot of great highlights, and those highlights showcase the player in the uniform of the team he played on when he was making them.  You ever see highlights of Gretzky wearing a St Louis Blues uniform?  Of course not - he was only there a couple of months, but also he wasn't the sublime player he was with Edmonton and Los Angeles (heck, even with the New York Rangers he was pretty OK).  Hoffman will be shown getting #600 as a Brewer until Mariano Rivera breaks his record.  Then his highlight clips will revert to ones from the mid- and late-1990s when he dominated the NL.
2. Has a plan.  How many players leave the league and just play golf until they get restless?  Hoffman is interested in the business side of the game, and is looking to find his next niche. Give the Padres credit for allowing him the time to determine where he fits in best.

That's all for now.  

You may already know this, but anyway

I'm doing some research for an article on Randy Jones (which will appear on Wednesday), and discovered something interesting.

- In 1973 Randy Jones was promoted from AA to the majors.  He eventually won a Cy Young award (1976).

- In 2002 Jake Peavy was promoted from AA to the majors.  He eventually won a Cy Young award (2007).

In 2009 Mat Latos was promoted from AA to the majors.  I wonder...

I will be posting more frequently now.  Sorry for the long absence.

Orlando Hudson at Second

Various sources reported on Friday* Orlando Hudson had signed with the Padres to play second base in 2011.  San Diego has not confirmed the deal, waiting for the results of the physical before making the formal announcement.  According to reports in the San Diego U-T, Hudson signed for 2 years ($4M in 2011, $5.5M in 2012), with an $8M option in 2013 (and $2M buyout).  It has not yet been stated if the option is club, player, or mutual (at least as far as I have read).

*Note to Jed Hoyer - can you PLEASE make these types of moves known on Thursday morning instead of Friday morning?  Help a poor lonely Podcast host out.  Throw me a bone, man.

Most of the reporting on this trade has highlighted Hudson's defensive ability.  That, coupled with the trade for  Jason Bartlett (agreed to during the winter meetings last week but only finalized yesterday), and the acquisition of Cameron Maybin earlier this off-season, make the Padres a better defensive team up the middle than in 2010.

Or does it?  I've already looked at Maybin vs Tony Gwynn Jr.  Let's look at the new players in comparison to who they're replacing.

There will be a podcast tonight (12/9)

There's a lot to talk about this week, don't you think?  See you at 10pm.  Follow the link below.


Padres Trail Podcast

Who's On First?

With Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, I naturally assumed the first base job would become Kyle Blanks.  He is a natural first baseman and, again assuming he's healthy, is a power bat the 2011 Padres will sorely need.  Jed Hoyer, during an interview Monday with Darren Smith, indicated the Padres would look for free agent help at that position.  Which begets two questions:

1.  Where is Blanks going to play when healthy?
2.  What are the Padres' options at first in this market?

Cot's Baseball Contracts has the current list of free agents who play first, age last season in parenthesis:

• Garrett Atkins (30), Willy Aybar (27), Russell Branyan (34), Jason Giambi (39), Troy Glaus (33), Nick Johnson (31), Paul Konerko (34), Casey Kotchman (28), Mark Kotsay (34), Jeff Larish (27), Adam LaRoche (30), Derrek Lee (34), Lyle Overbay (33), Carlos Pena (32), Robb Quinlan (33), Jose Ruiz (25), Randy Ruiz (32), Mike Sweeney (36) , Fernando Tatis (35), Jim Thome (39).

That's a lot of guys to pick through. Let's pare it down, first by eliminating everyone over 35, which removes Giambi, Sweeney, Tatis, and Thome.  We can eliminate Konerko and Pena as unaffordable for the Padres.  We should eliminate guys with significant injury history, so that takes Glaus, Johnson, and Kotsay off.  Jose Ruiz is raw with no major league experience; he's not the answer for 2011.  That cuts the list in half.

Here are the career slugging percentages for the remaining 10 candidates:

• Atkins - .449.  Should note he has played half his career at Coors Field, and his slugging is close to 100 points higher at home (.495/.406) 
• Aybar - .399
• Branyan - .490
• Kotchman - .392
• Larish - .380 in 276 career ML plate appearances
• LaRoche - .488
• Lee - .498
• Overbay - .447
• Quinlan - .401
• Randy Ruiz - .488, 238 career ML plate appearances

Eliminating everyone slugging below .400 (and Rob Quinlan, who slugged .401) kicks Aybar, Kotchman, Larish, and Quinlan off the list.  Six potentials left.

How does one rank these guys?  Three righties (Atkins, LaRoche, Ruiz), three lefties (Branyan, Lee, Overbay).

Atkins was designated for assignment by Baltimore 27 June 10.  He did not play again in 2010.  Fangraphs calculated he was a below-average first baseman (UZR/150 of -13.2), and he's put up negative WAR the last 2 seasons.  From his 2006 career highs in every offensive category, he has seen a drop in OBP and SLG for 4 consecutive years.  His power has seemingly disappeared.

Branyan started last season with Cleveland and finished it in Seattle.  He probably should have been included with the significant injury history, but he probably has the biggest power bat of this group.  Branyan has always been a pretty good defensive 1B and put up a 6.0 UZR/150 in 2010.  He'll give a team between 0.6 and 3 WAR on a given year.  He's left-handed, but he has the power to reach Petco's right field.

LaRoche declined a little bit in 2010 when compared to 2009, but he was solid, hitting 25 HR for the third consecutive year.  He graded out at 4.8 UZR/150 and a solid 2.1 WAR.

Lee had a solid 2010 overall, but is on the downslope of his career.  He posted a UZR/150 of 2.3 playing for Chicago and Atlanta, and posted a 2.0 WAR.

Overbay hit 20 HR for only the second time in his career last season.  He was spectacularly average as a fielder (UZR/150 of 0.1), and posted a 1.5 WAR.  As a lefty, he'd probably see his power dry up in Petco.

Ruiz is really a career minor leaguer.  He played only 23 innings at first last season.  How he would project at Petco is unknown, but I doubt the Padres would take a chance on a 32 year old AAAA player.

Based on those summaries, I think Ruiz, Overbay, and Atkins aren't good options at first.  If Hoyer is going to fill first base from without, it seems Branyan, Lee, or LaRoche make the most sense, if they can be enticed into a relatively affordable contract.

Adrian Gonzalez to Boston - OFFICIAL

tWWL is reporting today the Gonzo trade is final, even though the Red Sox and Gonzalez's people could not agree on a long-term extension.

For those of you holding out hope he stays in SD, I imagine it will take the press conference tomorrow and Adrian holding a Red Sox jersey before you acknowledge he's gone.  That said I'm not sure there are many of those folks left.  Trading Adrian Gonzalez away has been expected for more than a year now.  San Diego could not afford the left-handed first baseman.  If they were forced to trade away Jake Peavy and his $16 million dollar a year deal, how where they going to re-sign Gonzo for $20 mil?

2010's almost-run to the post-season only delayed the inevitable.  Jed Hoyer could not trade Gonzalez away in July because his club was not only in contention, they were leading the division.  How would that look? Giving up your best hitter with two months to go and a 4 game lead?  So Gonzalez stayed.

There will probably be comparisons to the fire-sale of the early 1990s.  So far this off-season Jon Garland, Yorvit Torrealba, and Miguel Tejada had all left for other teams (LA, not yet signed, and SF, respectively).  With those losses this team was to have a difficult time contending.  With Gonzalez in the AL East it is pretty near impossible.  Ryan Ludwick is going to be awfully lonely in the middle of this order.

For better or worse this will be the trade by which Hoyer is judged as the GM.  It's a good thing he and key members of his staff know the Boston minor league system well, because he'd better have gotten excellent value for the fourth-best player in the NL last season (if you go by MVP voting) who is in his prime.

Whatever contract value it is Adrian finally agrees to (be it 8 years, $180M or 6/$120) congratulations to him on the deal.  Gonzalez is the best 1B in the history of the San Diego Padres, and will be for some time to come.  He's worked hard and his ship has finally come in.  I will miss seeing him hit in person and on local TV.

As I close, and in case you're not depressed enough by the trade, here's how I project the 2011 Padre team to look:

1B - Kyle Blanks
2B - Matt Antonelli (speculation only; Eckstein is a free agent and I don't know who else to put here)
3B - Chase Headley
SS - Everth Cabrera (see above, replace 'Eckstein...' with 'Tejada signed with SF')
LF - Chris Denorfia Ryan Ludwick*
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - Ryan Ludwick Will Venable*
C - Nick Hundley

SP:  Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Chris Young (yes I think he re-signs) Aaron Harang**, Cory Luebke.

Think we struggled to score runs in 2010?  Just wait.

*This seems the more likely lineup after pondering it last night.
** Spaced the Harang signing.

Bud Black is NL Manager of the Year

The BBA held it's post-season awards voting during the playoffs, and awarded Bud Black their Connie Mack Award as the best NL Manager in 2010.  Yesterday the BBWAA followed suit, naming Black the NL Manager of the Year.

As a baseball observer and Padre partisan, I felt this selection was self-evident.  Black took a team that lost 87 games the previous season and moved them within a game of the playoffs, finishing with a 90-72 record.  The BBWAA didn't think he had a slam-dunk case based on the voting.  I had not considered Dusty Baker as a viable candidate - I expected Bruce Bochy and Bobby Cox to get significant support - but Baker presided over a turnaround almost as big as San Diego's (Cincinnati lost 84 games in 2009 and finished this season 91-71).

Maybe that's because I could never decide if Cincinnati's division championship was a product of their superior play, or St Louis' collapse after 11 August.

At any rate, in the hour before the winners were announced I got into an interesting interchange with a Giants fan on Twitter (SFGiantsUSA) about who deserved to win.  First, it was nice to have a reasonable exchange with a Giants fan for once.  His argument against Black centered around their performance after 25 August, when the 10-game losing streak started.  My counter was Bochy had less to do with the Giants success last season than Brian Sabean did.  We argued according to form, perhaps.

But those positions weren't why it was interesting.  He asked if Black's perceived success was based on how the Padres were evaluated before the season started, and so why should he get credit because the prognosticators mis-evaluated the Padres (and how strong their pitching was)?

He makes a fair point.  Most every Manager of the Year award goes to a guy who is perceived to have gotten his team to over-achieve  Who sets the baseline from which that over-achievement is evaluated? The BBWAA, ESPN experts, MLB.com experts, bloggers, and so on.  Manager of the Year should go to the man who performed the best regardless of how his team was expected to play.  I had not considered that position until he mentioned.

If we discount where everyone thought the Padres would finish (and I think universally they were picked to finish no higher than 4th in the NL West), does Black still deserve the award?  I think so, because of the overall talent level he had to work with.  Consider:

• NL teams averaged 4.33 runs per game.  San Diego came in at 4.10.  Four teams were worse:  New York (4.05), Washington (4.04), Houston (3.77), Pittsburgh (3.62).  None of those 4 teams finished above .500 (NY was the closest at 79-83)
• San Diego's raw OPS was third worst in the league.  Their park adjusted OPS+ was more middle of the pack, but still below the league average.  Concurrently, their team wOBA was also thirdworst.
• All the above makes sense if you looked at their lineups over the 2010 season.  The only guy in the lineup that scared teams day-to-day was Adrian Gonzalez. Miguel Tejada did help after the trade deadline, but still - this was a below average lineup.

San Diego's pitching was superior, especially their bullpen, which made up for the lack of hitting all season.  Bud Black did a great job juggling his starting staff (specifically Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia, Chris Young) and aggressively turning over the games to his airtight bullpen.

And his starting staff had holes in it.  Kevin Correia never really recovered from the untimely death of his brother.  Chris Young started the third game of the season, then didn't pitch again until September.  Mat Latos took a 'injury' related 15 days off in July.  Wade LeBlanc was effective, then not effective, holding down the #5 job. Jon Garland had a great year statistically but was maddingly erratic for stretches late in the season.

Other teams had issues, sure.  SF's lineup had no power in it for the first half of the season.  St Louis lost 40% of its rotation in a week and never fully recovered.  Philadelphia played 14 total regular season games with their Opening Day lineup.  But all those teams had much more margin for error, either because the rest of their roster was talented enough to survive the damage (STL, PHI), or they had the resources to make wholesale changes to their roster (SF, PHI).  No other team spent the season with the razor thin margin between success and failure Padres did, and the fact they stayed on the success side of that edge the virtually all season (and returned to it after falling off it in late August) is entirely due to Bud Black.

So no, I don't think pre-season expectations should drive who wins. But I think who did the most with the talent they had should, and Bud Black clearly did.  Congratulations Bud Black.

Cameron Maybin to the Padres

On Saturday last the Padres acquired Cameron Maybin from Florida for "Home Run Ed" Mujica and Ryan Webb.  You may have seen this.

The first question I asked myself was why did the Padres trade some of their pitching depth for a guy at a position...where they have a lot of depth already?  So I took a look at some numbers.

Maybin has played most of his career, and all his time with Florida, as a centerfielder.  It's reasonable to expect the Padres plan to line him up in center for 2011.  That means Tony Gwynn Jr, Will Venable, and Chris Denorfia are probably looking for another position to play.  How good a CF is Maybin?  Well:

• By UZR/150 (fangraphs):  -4.4 (2010), 13,5 (2009).  He played 8 games in 2008 and 15 games in 2007, so too small a sample size to use.
• By Dewan plus/minus:  -7 (2010), +6 (2009).
• By Range factor/9 (baseball reference):  3.11 (2010), 2.70 (2009).  League average was 2.59 and 2.60 respectively.

Tony Gwynn?

• UZR/150:  32.9, 14.4
• Dewan:  +23, +19
• Range Factor/9:  2.12, 3.03.

Venable has played less than 30 games in center each of the last 3 seasons, so not much data to go on there.  Denorfia has played only 1 season with the Padres, and had 50 games in CF, but his UZR/150 is -15.7.  Remember that he and Venable were substitutes after Gwynn Jr got hurt, so really this is about Maybin and Gwynn.

Based on the defensive numbers above I would argue Gwynn Jr is a better defensive CF than Maybin.  Only Range Factor/9 favors Maybin, which interestingly enough was quoted in the SDUT article announcing Maybin's acquisition:

The 6-foot-3, 210-pound Maybin last season had the highest range factor of any National League center fielder who played at least 70 games. Maybin had a 3.10 score per nine innings. By comparison, Tony Gwynn had a 2.12 score.

Was the trade about improving the offense?  Doubtful.  For the 2010 season, Maybin's .234/.302/.361 (.299 wOBA) line was not much better than Gwynn Jr's .204/.304/.287 (.276 wOBA).  I thought perhaps Maybin would be the leadoff hitter the Padres need to find, but based on that OBP he is no improvement at all.

Over 610 PA Maybin has posted a .246/.313/.380.  Over 1054 PA Gwynn Jr has .244/.323/.314.  We can say Maybin has more power based on the slugging percentage, but otherwise they are the same hitter.  So this isn't about the offense.

Was the trade be about salary?  Maybin has just over one year major league service time (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts and my extrapolation), and Gwynn Jr has just over 3.  Again according to Cot's, both are arbitration eligible for 2011 (note:  I may be reading the data on Cot's wrong, so apologies if I have indeed misinterpreted it).  I don't understand how Maybin is arbitration eligible with only 1 year service time, but that is what the data says.

Based on the arbitration status for both, this probably isn't about the salary.  Both players have above-average gloves but below-average bats, so their arbitration cases would be very similar.

Maybin is 4+ years younger than Gwynn.  Maybe that's what this is about.

Sometimes I wish I had access to the analytical tools the Padres use to evaluate players, because from my perspective, they acquired a new starting center fielder with no appreciable upside from their current starting center fielder.

Complicating things is the Padres already crowded outfield.  Besides Gwynn Jr, Venable, and Denorfia, San Diego also has OF Kyle Blanks, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Cunningham, Luis Durango, and Scott Hairston to choose from (and what about Matt Stairs?)  Clearly the club can't carry all those players, so someone or several someones are not going to be playing in SD next season.  If I was a betting man, I'd suspect Gwynn Jr, Hairston, and Stairs are gone, Blanks goes back to first base, Cunningham to the minors, and the Padres keep Ludwick, Venable, Durango and Denorfia.

Chris Young, Ted Simmons, Podcasts, and Transitions

Hey it's been a week since our last post.  Some catch-up, and an announcement.

- Padres declined Chris Young's option for 2011.  The club would have paid him $8.5M for next season.  This move comes as no surprise, and Young was quoted last week saying he'd like to come back as a Padre if the financial details can be worked out.  As I discussed last week on the Podcast, it's definitely conceivable Young could return.  He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and Petco is built to maximize his strengths.  He has missed significant time due to injury the past 3 seasons, making him a high risk acquisition by another team; which also means the market won't really be there for his services, so his price should be relatively low despite his experience and success (he was an All-Star in 2007).

With only 3 of their rotation slots spoken for in 2011, re-signing CY makes a lot of sense.

- Ted Simmons has joined the Seattle Mariner front office, after two years as Bud Black's bench coach. Today the Veterans Committee for the Hall of Fame announced Ted will be one of the players they consider for induction.  Simmons' career WAR (50.40) is better than Jorge Posada's (46.00), a guy a certain segment of the baseball world is trying to tout as a first-ballot HOF.  Simmons finished in the MVP top 20 seven times from 1971-1982.  He's certainly worthy of consideration for the Hall, and good luck to him.

- Podcasts:  My stated intentions with the Podcast is to do one if any interesting Padre news breaks during that week.  That said, let's be realistic - two of the next 3 shows fall on Federal holidays, and you've probably got more important things to do those nights.  So the 18 Nov show is the next scheduled on we'll do.  That time may change to earlier in the night, but we'll discuss that next week.

Finally, a note on transitions.  The Bureau of Naval Personnel approved my retirement request; I'll leave the USN next summer after 20 years of service.  There's a lot of personal satisfaction on the job done, and some trepidation on what's to come.  I've worn the uniform in some capacity for over half my actual life and all of my adult life.  Not only do I now have to find a color other than khaki to wear to work every day, I have to find a job, plus all the normal check-out items that need to be completed before I leave active service (of which medical is probably the most important).

Why am I telling you this?  Because in preparation for that transition this blog will necessarily become a lower priority for me.  So, it's going to go dark this winter for extended periods of time.  I plan to post when appropriate, and I am writing weekly over at I-70 Baseball if you need to a 'Mike fix', but will be concentrating on other things.

I expect to be back full-force for spring training.

Thanks to all of you who've commented here, or just stopped by to read what I've written.  A special thank-you to Gaslamp Ball and Ducksnorts for the many links during the 2010 season. Remember:  I'm not going away, just turning down the wattage for a while.  See you around.

Garland, Gonzalez, Torrealba Options Resolved

The Padres picked up Adrian Gonzalez's 2011 option yesterday.  As if there was any doubt.

According to Baseball Reference, Gonzalez had the highest NL WAR for position players not named Albert Pujols, and 4th highest overall (fangraphs is not as enamored; they rank Gonzo 13th in the league).  Gonzalez's value by Fangraphs came in at $21.1 million; his actual 2011 contract option is for $5.5 million.

Two other options were reported yesterday by XX1090 during the drive home.  Jon Garland exercised his player option and declined to return to San Diego in 2011.  He receives the $300K buyout.  Yorvit Torrealba also declined his $3.5 million option for 2011, and he receives a $500K buyout.

Gonzo gets a $750K raise.  The Padres spent $800K and cleared $10.25M off the books for 2011, making $9.45M more available to sign players in 2011.

I'm a little surprised Torrealba declined to return, however, 2010 was his best season in the majors.  He had the most PA he's had since 2007, and he put up his best-ever WAR (2.4, again by Fangraphs).  He's 32 years old.  Perhaps he thinks he proved himself this past season, and believes he can find an everyday catching gig on the free agent market.  That's certainly possible.  I love an optimist, so best of luck Yorvit.

I'm not all that surprised Garland is leaving.  He seemed irritated at how he was used by Black, especially towards the end of the season.  There were a couple of games (against the Giants in early September, against the Cubs the last home game of the season) where he either was visibly upset at being lifted, or verbally indicated he was miffed in the post-game interview.  Garland professed to really wanting to pitch at Petco when the Padres signed him in the off-season; things must have gone sour indeed for him to leave after only one season. 

Garland had the best K/9 rate, and the second-worst BB/9 rate, of his career in 2010.  His xFIP was the seocnd-lowest of his career, so he pitched about as well as he could; yet his WAR was the lowest it had ever been when throwing 200+ innings (and his lowest since 2001, his second year in the majors).  His 3.47 ERA was the best of his career.

How crowded would the Padres rotation have been in 2011?  Latos, Richard, and Stauffer return.  Young has an $8.5M club option.  Correia is a free agent.  LeBlanc is probably done as a starter.  There was room for Garland here in 2011, had he opted to stay.

Well Jon it was fun while it lasted.  Wish you could have stopped that 10-game losing streak before it reached 10 games.

Bruce Bochy, Tim Flannery win a World Series

Wouldn't it have been better to write that headline while both were still members of the Padres organization?  Yes, yes it would.

I was asked in conversation who I would root for in the playoffs, and although I did not pick a team, I did state I would root for the NL representative to win the World Series.  Even if that rep was the Dodgers.  I believe the only professional league in the world still playing baseball like it was meant to be played is our league, the National League, and I want to see it succeed.  Mission accomplished, and congratulations to the San Francisco Giants.

I couldn't watch the post-game celebrations without thinking what might have been for San Diego.  I doubt any Padre fan could.  San Diego was the better team head-to-head, and had a better interleague record; but the Giants were 32-22 against the rest of the NL West, and the Padres were 26-28.  That was the difference.  San Fran was a 1/2 game better against the NL Central and 3.5 games better against the NL East than the Padres.  Still, San Diego had a chance to win the division on the last day of the season.

Which leaves one to wonder:  How far would San Diego have gotten in the post-season?  I don't think anyone can really say; after all, what predictive software program had the Rangers knocking off the Yankees?  I do think that the Padres would not have had enough offense to survive a first-round matchup with Atlanta or Philadelphia.  The Giants got contributions and power up and down their lineup:  Renteria, Ross, Posey, Burrell, Uribe, the list goes on.  San Diego didn't have that outside of Gonzalez and Tejada.  Pitching-wise, San Diego's rotation was not nearly as deep as San Francisco's, although our bullpen is their's equal.

I think the Padres, had they qualified, would have bowed out in the LDS round, and there would have been no shame in that; after all, this team was picked to finish last by most.

With the Giants win we close out the first decade of the new millennium, and what a decade it was for the World Series.

• Arizona, Anaheim, Colorado, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Texas all made their first World Series Appearance, with Arizona and Anaheim winning their first ever championship.
• We saw long streaks end - Boston ended a 90 year drought; the White Sox an 88 year drought; San Francisco a 56 year drought.
• Only the Red Sox won multiple titles.
• The old guard teams continue to dominate, though.  The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Cardinals won 40% of the league titles (2 each) in the decade.

So other than the end of season awards, that wraps up the 2010 baseball season.  Now our attention turns to Adrian Gonzalez's contract negotiations, and the club options for Jon Garland and Chris Young.