Luebke 2011 vs Latos 2010

In a 2010 season full of Padres feel-good stories, the biggest was the emergence of Mat Latos.  Latos got tons of national notoriety as the face of those over-achieving Padres, and with good reason - he was flat-out filthy over the summer.

2011 has been nowhere as much fun for the Padres, but there have been feel-good stories anyway.  Jesus Guzman's resurrection.  Aaron Harang's comeback.  Cameron Maybin's maturation.  And another young arm has emerged  in the Padre rotation - Cory Luebke.  Luebke has not gotten the media attention Latos did last year, but he's been pretty darn good too.

I took a look at Luebke's starts in 2011 and compared them to what I consider as Latos' best stretch in 2010, 22 June to 27 August.  Each comprises 11 starts and 1090 pitches (actually Luebke has thrown 1092 pitches in his 11 2011 starts).  As you might expect, Latos' numbers are better, but look at how well Luebke measures up.

Latos:    70.2 IP, 79K, 21BB, 1.27 ERA, .188/.249/.270, 0.9829 WHIP, .254 BABIP
Luebke: 66.1 IP, 69K, 14BB, 2.71 ERA, .201/.248/.335, 0.9682 WHIP, .251 BABIP

So why no hosannahs for Luebke?  Likely because the Padres are currently 11 games under .500 at the moment, and Luebke spent most of the first 3 months of 2011 coming out of the bullpen.  Also, I suspect that in spite of the inroads advanced statistical metrics have made in recent years, people were/are still seduced by won/loss record.  Latos entered last September 14-5 and a dark horse Cy Young candidate.  Luebke is currently 5-6, 4-4 as a starter, and no one is talking about him as a Cy Young candidate.

He is going to be, however.

Looking for an answer to Lincecum and Cain?  You've found it in Latos and Luebke.  The Padres have two potential aces in their rotation right now, and neither is 27 yet.

You may already know this, but anyway

I'm doing some research for an article on Randy Jones (which will appear on Wednesday), and discovered something interesting.

- In 1973 Randy Jones was promoted from AA to the majors.  He eventually won a Cy Young award (1976).

- In 2002 Jake Peavy was promoted from AA to the majors.  He eventually won a Cy Young award (2007).

In 2009 Mat Latos was promoted from AA to the majors.  I wonder...

I will be posting more frequently now.  Sorry for the long absence.

Two straight

This just in:  Mat Latos is good.  Just for fun, let's compare his strikeouts per nine inning ratio to other notable National League pitchers (not including games on 7 Sept):

• Lincecum - 9.5
• Latos - 9.3
• Jimenez - 8.4
• Wainwright - 8.3
• Halladay - 8.0
• Carpenter - 6.9

A question on the Padres post-game show last night that Scanlon answered asked if Latos should be included in conversations on the NL Cy Young.  Absolutely.  That comparison above is just a sampler of how good Latos has been in 2010.

I thought Bud Black really rolled the dice bringing Mike Adams in to start the eighth inning, given the high leverage 5 outs Adams got Monday night.  Adams was not up to the task.  Black decided to bring Heath Bell in for a 5-out save.  Considering the Dodgers had the tying run on second with one out in the inning, and that Bell hadn't pitched since 27 August before last night, I thought it absolutely the right move.  Bell striking out 4 and getting the save was gravy.

The only downside?  I suspect both Adams and Bell will not be available today.  San Diego has assured itself of at least a tie for first place going into the Giant series.  I would think having both those pitchers ready for Thursday's game is more important than running them back out there Wednesday.  Besides, everyone else (less Tim Stauffer) should be available to back up Luebke.

Padres go for the sweep today.  Is it too early to talk magic numbers?  Yes it is.  Let's save that discussion until after the weekend series with San Francisco.

Remaining Latos starts, and a fun Quiz

Had a great podcast Thursday night.  Thanks to all those folks filling the chat room with commentary.  I had a caller - first one I've had in over a month (ballgirl hasn't called in a while, although she did chat us up last night).  Unfortunately for me, the caller broke into Spanish, and I'm probably the only guy in South Bay that doesn't understand Spanish.  Not sure what to do, I ended up cutting his mike.  Sorry dude.  Maybe I should have asked him to switch to English first.

At any rate, the whole show is worth a listen.

I did want to elaborate, or at least mention, one of the discussion points that came up, and that's the number of starts Mat Latos has left this season.  As you no doubt are aware, Latos started the season with a 150 inning ceiling on his arm.  As the year progressed, and Latos matured into the best starting pitcher on the club, that ceiling was raised to 150-180 innings.  After leaving the game tonight, he's thrown 149 2/3, and his start tonight was after he was pushed off his normal start date of Tuesday night.

So what's the season got left for him? (As an aside, Mark Grant/Mark Neely discussed this during the game.  Grant thinks Latos has 7 starts left)

• 1 Sept @ Arizona.  Since Garland is behind him in the rotation, I could definitely see Bud Black sending Garland on short rest and skipping Latos, since 2 Sept is an off-day.  No Start
• 6 Sept vs LA.  Will be 10 days between starts.  He might start earlier in the week against Colorado.  Start
• 11 Sept vs SF.  Latos has owned the Giants this season.  Start
• 16 Sept at STL.  Here we get into the 'it might depend on what the standings are' final two weeks.  If the Padres maintain their current advantage over San Francisco, the magic number for this game would be 9.  I'm thinking the Padres probably start him.  Start
• 21 Sept at LA.  This is the day after an off-day, so a good date to skip Latos if desired.  And it's probably desired.  No Start
• 26 Sept vs CIN.  Probably his last start of the regular season.  If all stays as is right now, this will be the game the Padres clinch the division.  Start
• 1 Oct at SF.  Unless they need to win this game in order to fight off the Giants, there's no way Latos pitches.  No Start

So I can see Latos making 4 more starts this season.  There has been talk about spot starts in September, for Stauffer or perhaps Luebke, which makes this plan all the more probable.  6 innings in 4 starts would be 24 innings, and put Latos at 173 innings headed into the post-season.

I'm also willing to bet Latos will start one game in each round if the Padres get all the way to the World Series.  So figure he'll top out at about 200 innings this season.  I just can't see SD shutting him down if they are making a deep run into October.

Finally for your weekend viewing pleasure, after the jump we have a riddle.  Using the pictures (one NSFW) as your only hints, what is the line score at this point in the game.  Leave your guess in the comments.  Answer Monday.

When will Latos take a break, and for how long?

I had an actual live caller and an actual participant in the chat room guest during last night's Podcast, which was all kinds of awesome.  Nothing like having more than one person to talk to to make a discussion flow better.  While we touched on a variety of topics (feel free to follow the above link to hear it all), the one I want to follow up on this morning is Mat Latos and his 'rest'.

To recap:  Padres GM Jed Hoyer is on record saying the team wants to cap Latos' innings pitched at 150 for 2010.

Interestingly, there is precedent for giving a young pitcher a break in the middle of the season.  Detroit promoted 20 year old phenom Rick Porcello to the majors last year.  They had the same concerns the Padres currently do about overworking this prized prospect too early in his career, so they did two things.  One, they limited his pitch count to less than 100 (which they stuck to until his 24th start on 28 August), and two, in an attempt to limit his innings they shut him down following his 5 July start for 15 days.  Because this break coincided with the All-Star break, Porcello ended up only missing one start.

Porcello's numbers pre and post break are interesting:

All Star Selections

First this was an amazing week.  Scott Hairston drove in 12 runs during the homestand.  Tony Gwynn Jr drove in a winning run, scored a winning run, and saved a run with a great catch, all in the Astro series.  Kevin Correia found his form, at least for one game.

And Mat Latos pitched, again, like an All-Star.

I try not to get too worked-up about the All Star roster.  Every team must be represented, so there are some artificial-ities inherent in the process.  Evan Meek is the only Pirate, and he's pitched well, so that's that.  I'm sure an argument could be made for either Luke Gregerson, Matt Adams, or Heath Bell over Arthur Rhodes, but I'm not going to make it today.

Even in my laid-back approach to the rosters, I cannot help but raise an eyebrow on 5 Cardinals making the roster but only 1 Padre.  Pujols and Molina got voted in, Holliday leads all NL outfielders in WAR according to this site, Adam Wainwright is one of the very best pitchers in baseball.  Chris Carpenter?  That's an interesting pick.

The Padres have the best pitching staff, statistically, in the league but do not have a pitcher on the roster.  Something seems amiss.  I submit Mat Latos deserved Chris Carpenter's spot.

To wit:

- Latos ERA:  2.62.  Carpenter:  3.16 (yes I know it was inflated by that gagger Saturday vs Milwaukee).
- Latos HR allowed:  9.  Carpenter:  14.
- Latos WHIP:  0.963 (lowest SP WHIP in NL).  Carpenter:  1.212
- Latos K/9:  8.2.  Carpenter:  7.9
- Latos K/BB ratio:  3.5.  Carpenter:  2.92
- Latos xFIP:  3.59.  Carpenter:   3.77
- Latos WAR:  1.8.  Carpenter:  1.4

I submit Mat Latos is better in every statistical category than Chris Carpenter.  Bud Black is an assistant coach for the NL - how is it Latos didn't get selected?

*Yes I'm aware of the irony that I suggested sending Latos down in April, only to argue he's an All-Star now.  Life is funny, isn't it?

The Juggernaut

Fear the Padres - especially on the road.  For all the talk about building this team to play in Petco, they've been very tough on the road.  I was surprised to discover tonight the Padres have the best road record in the National League (18-13).  The Philadelphia Phillies are the only other NL team with even a winning record on the road (Cincinnati is .500 away from Great American Ballpark).

It gets better.  San Diego also has the second best road record in the Majors, behind only Tampa Bay (24-12).  You want the mark of a good team?  They win on the road.  As if you needed any more proof the Padres are good in 2010.

I'm not sure how else to describe Mat Latos at this point.  Since being shellacked by Florida on 26 April, Latos has torn it up.  Ten starts, 9 quality starts, 66 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings, 15 walks, opposing hitters are slashing .159/.223/.237 against him (slash starts don't include last night's game).

The Padres have won seven of his last 10 starts. 

Mat Latos had the eighth best xFIP in the NL among starters for May according to Fangraphs (3.41).  For June, his xFIP has slipped a little bit to a bloated 3.73.  For the season, under the qualified rule set Fangraphs uses, he's tied for the 12th lowest xFIP in the league (3.71).  By xFIP he's the best starter on the Padres.

Jed Hoyer faces a difficult choice.  Latos has thrown 86 innings this season, and the Padres set a 150 inning limit on his arm.  What will the club do if it remains in the pennant race, Latos remains their most consistent pitcher, and he reaches the 150 inning limit in early September?  Will they allow him to push beyond it, or shut him down for the year?

Actually I hope the club is faced with that decision, because we'll be watching meaningful games in September for the first time since 2007.

Giant Killers

Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Padres would win the first six games of the season from the Giants, but that is exactly what has happened.  Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Padres would have the best record in the NL after 34 games, but that is exactly what has happened.  Never in my wildest dreams did I think Mat Latos would beat the Giants twice by a 1-0 score, but that is exactly what has happened.

I don't know if this is an indictiment of my dreams or the Padres are a better team than believed before the season started.

On the Podcast last night we talked about some potential problems the Padres have that could derail this strong start.  The superior pitching (starters due to regress, bullpen perhaps not).  Kyle Blanks' struggles at the plate.  The offensive hole at shortstop.  I also pointed out, however, the Pythagorean record for these Padres is 23-11.  Their actual record is 22-12.  This isn't a fluke, folks - they're playing as well as their record reflects.

Whether it's sustainable or not for the bulk of the season remains to be seen.  Fangraphs' Jack Moore posted today on how wide open the NL is in 2010 - seriously, almost everyone has a shot right now.  Should the Padres come back to earth and play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll win 86 games.  That might be good enough this year to win the Wild Card.

Some food for thought as we head into our first series with the Dodgers this weekend:

• San Diego has had a few longer winning streaks against the Giants.  To wit:
• Seven straight in 1982 (4/14 to 6/27),
• Ten straight in 1996 (5/1 to 9/16),
• Eight straight in 2007 (6/26 to 9/16).
• San Diego has never won the first 6 games of a season series from the Giants, though.
• Oddly (and as pointed out by Jerry Coleman I believe), both series with the Giants have produced the same game scores:  one game 3-2, one game 5-2, and one game 1-0.
• Jonathan Sanchez is probably talking to himself.  In his two starts against San Diego this year, he's thrown 15 innings, struck out 15 Padres, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs.  He's lost both games.

I don't know when the last time was a pitcher threw consecutive 1-0 victories against the same team.  I tried to do a search on Baseball Reference, and the Play Index feature laughed at me.  Here's what I did find:

• Since 1969 there have been 38 games decided 1-0 where the winning pitcher threw 9 innings gave up only 1 hit.
• Since 1920 there have been 209 games where the visitor threw a complete game and one-hit the home team.
• Of those 209 games, in only 29 the visiting pitcher threw the one-hitter and won 1-0.
• It was last done to the Giants at home (albeit in Candlestick) on August 20, 1986, by Don Corman of the Philadelphia Phillies.
• It was last done to the Padres at home (in Jack Murphy) on August 3, 1983, by Nolan Ryan of Houston.
• It has been done before by a Padre - the immortal Dan Spillner did it in Wrigley of all places, on June 19, 1974.  It was one of 2 shutouts he threw in a year he went 9-11.

Here's the coolest stat.  The last time a pitcher won a game on the road 1-0, threw a complete game one hitter, and drove in the lone run was June 26, 1955, when the Kansas City A's Alex Kellner beat Baltimore's Jim Wilson in old Memorial Stadium.  Oddly, the #8 hitter that day (catcher Joe Alstroth) doubled and Kellner followed with a single, exactly like what happened yesterday with Zawadski and Latos.

Coupled with his first start against Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos has now twice been involved in something this season not seen at the Major League level in at least 35 years.  Yesterday's game was more impressive because it's been 60 years since a pitcher did that.

He's killing the Giants in new and inventive ways.

Padres start a 5 game homestand tonight.  Saturday's game is sold out, and I'll be there.  Get out to the stadium and root on the best team in the NL.  They deserve it.

Pitching Pitching and More Pitching (and lots of links!)

First, if haven't seen this team play (and judging by the attendance, you haven't), the Padres have managed to win a few games here and there.  With last night's 3-2 win, they sit 1.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West.

How are they doing it?  Not so much with the bat (19th overall in team AVG, 19th in wOBA, 19th in OPS), although they are 13th in BABIP.

Nope, it's been all about the pitching (4th in FIP, 1st in xFIP, 3rd in ERA).  In this series, they've had to have the pitching, because they've scored only 5 runs against the Colorado Rockies (while allowing 7), and yet have split the first two games of the series.

Kevin Correia pitched well Monday, but Ubaldo Jimenez was flat-out better.  That happens.

Speaking of Jimenez, Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the great names in baseball today, along with Yorvit Torrealba.  As such, they are now charter members of the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars, dedicated to recognizing great MLB player names.  Have a nominee?  Leave it in the comments.  Needs to be a current player, unless it's one of such superior quality it transcends time. 

Wade LeBlanc - 6 innings, 2 ER, 4 K?  Slacker.  Actually, he continues to strengthen his case for staying in the rotation long-term.  Had the Padres cashed in on any of the numerous chances Greg Smith created for them, Wade could have been the winning pitcher in this one.  Wade is second only to Correia in xFIP among the starters; in fact, the two of them are the only starters with xFIP's under 4.00.

We've talked a lot about LeBlanc vs Latos in the rotation; the original post on the subject generated discussion at at least three different Padres websites.  One of the Ducksnorts commenters suggested, should CY be activated, the odd man out be Sean Gallagher.  Based on his numbers, that makes a lot of sense.  As far as who would go to the pen in his place, I'd think I'd keep riding the hot hand in the rotation and send Latos there.  That, of course, is subject to change based on how the season progresses.

Speaking of Chris Young...

Latos vs LeBlanc in the rotation?

Something I've been thinking about for the better part of a week is what to do with Wade LeBlanc.  The reasons why I've been wondering, well, I'll explain at the bottom of the post.  The Padres are in an enviable position, because they will have too many starting pitchers when Chris Young comes off the DL.  Note that I'm not considering Tim Stauffer, who was a candidate to start during spring training, in this discussion, as he is doing a nice job out of the Padre bullpen.  San Diego has been able to let Chris Young rehab at his own pace is because of their depth in the rotation.

LeBlanc has pitched very well since taking CY's spot in the rotation.  Latos, outside of the scintillating start against San Francisco, has struggled. With Young almost ready to resume his place, the Padres have a tough call to make:  who gets sent back to Portland?

Here's my thought:  it's not as simple as giving Wade LeBlanc a ticket to Oregon.  Based on performance so far this year, Latos might be a better choice.

Let's take the emotion out of it and look at this objectively.

1.  Latos (4 starts): 20 1/3 IP, 14 R (all earned), 24 H, 6 BB, 13K, 5 HR.  WHIP = 1.527, ERA = 6.20.  Granted, half the runs he allowed happened last night.
2.  LeBlanc (2 starts):  11 IP, 1 R (earned), 10 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR.  WHIP = 1.273, ERA = 0.82.

LeBlanc, despite making two fewer starts and throwing 9 1/3 fewer innings, has only three fewer strikeouts, is allowing fewer baserunners, and has a miniscule ERA.

Since Earned Run Average is an inherently flawed metric, a deeper look is in order.  Here are a little more advanced statistics, ones currently commonly accepted as being good measures of the quality of a pitcher (i.e., they take the defense out of the equation).  The first two take into account Latos' start last night, the last two don't.

K/BB ratio:  Latos 2.16, LeBlanc 2.5.
K/9:  Latos 5.76, LeBlanc 8.18.
FIP:  Latos 5.46, LeBlanc 2.30.
xFIP:  Latos 3.99, LeBlanc 3.42.

You can keep looking at your convenience.  By all the statistical measures I reviewed, however, at this moment in history Wade LeBlanc is pitching better than Mat Latos.  I'm not saying we should give up on Latos, or that 4 years down the road he won't be the best starter on the team - we shouldn't, and he might.  But today - for this team - LeBlanc is currently the better option.

And let's not forget how close the #5 starter competition was in spring training.  Latos beat-out LeBlanc the last week of March, so it's not like Latos' making the team was a slam-dunk.  These guys graded out virtually even, with Latos being just slightly better.

So who do the Padres send down?  They ought to, in my opinion, seriously consider Latos.  Now, LeBlanc's next start is at home against Milwaukee (Thursday night).  If he lays an egg, then perhaps you keep working with Latos and send LeBlanc back down.  But if LeBlanc shuts down the Marlins Brewers, a team that just got finished torturing Latos a very good hitting team, well, that's another point for Wade staying in San Diego.

I really need to hire a proofreader.

(why I started pondering this:  I have Wade LeBlanc on my NL-only Rotisserie League fantasy team, and I was trying to decide if I should keep him or trade him.)

Winter Meeting Kickoff

Well, since I've largely ignored this blog since mid-August, it's high time I start it up again. The Winter Meetings starting Monday seemed a perfect time to do just that.

The Padres are expected to non-tender Kevin Correia. This surprises me based on how Correia pitched in 2009. From the biz of baseball, here's what non-tender means:

If a club has no interest in keeping a particular player, the club may choose to non-tender him, or to not offer him a contract. A player generally becomes a candidate to be non-tendered when he is arbitration-eligible and his club determines he is not worth the salary he might command in arbitration. A player who is non-tendered becomes a free agent and may sign with any of the 30 Major League clubs, including his former team, at any price.

Correia has over 4 years service, so he's arbitration eligible. He made $750K last season, but his 2.4 WAR in 2009 meant he was worth just under $11M dollars. No one is going to pay Kevin Correia eleven million dollars to pitch for them. However, if he went to arbitration he'd make substantially more than 750K. Heck, Brad Penny is about to sign a deal for $7.5 million - and he was awful for most of 2009! And for a cash-strapped franchise, that's a deal breaker.

With Correia's non-tender (and it isn't official until 12 December), the Padre rotation stacks up something like this:

Chris Young, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc.

I think I'd rather have Correia in the rotation than either Stauffer or LeBlanc.

This Just In...

The Cardinals are a little bit better than the Brewers.

Mat Latos - don't get down, kid. You've had a lot of success so far, but that was the first Major League lineup you've faced. Learn from it.