When will Latos take a break, and for how long?

I had an actual live caller and an actual participant in the chat room guest during last night's Podcast, which was all kinds of awesome.  Nothing like having more than one person to talk to to make a discussion flow better.  While we touched on a variety of topics (feel free to follow the above link to hear it all), the one I want to follow up on this morning is Mat Latos and his 'rest'.

To recap:  Padres GM Jed Hoyer is on record saying the team wants to cap Latos' innings pitched at 150 for 2010.

Interestingly, there is precedent for giving a young pitcher a break in the middle of the season.  Detroit promoted 20 year old phenom Rick Porcello to the majors last year.  They had the same concerns the Padres currently do about overworking this prized prospect too early in his career, so they did two things.  One, they limited his pitch count to less than 100 (which they stuck to until his 24th start on 28 August), and two, in an attempt to limit his innings they shut him down following his 5 July start for 15 days.  Because this break coincided with the All-Star break, Porcello ended up only missing one start.

Porcello's numbers pre and post break are interesting:

Tony Gwynn Jr's Glove

Tony Gwynn Jr is a prototypical slap hitter with no power.  In 2009 with the Padres he slashed .270/.350/.344.  So far in 2010 he's actually worse:  .225/.322/.326.  Yet, he's played in 22 games during the month of June, starting 18 of them.  Why would a guy who's such an offensive liability see so much playing time?

The conventional wisdom is, Gwynn Jr's glove has become the best OF glove the Padres have.  I was curious, so let's look at Dewan plus/minus on each of the Padre outfielders.  I grabbed the plus/minus number for the position each player has played the most in 2010.  All statistics do not include last night's 10-6 loss to Colorado.

• Gwynn Jr:  +8 (CF, 451.1 innings)
• Blanks: +1 (LF, 253)
• Cunningham:  0 (RF, 26)
• Denorfia:  +1 (LF, 82.2)
• S. Hairston:  -1 (LF, 204.1)
• J. Hairston Jr: +1 (RF, 42)
• Salazar:  0 (LF, 82)
• Stairs:  -2 (RF, 51)
• Venable:  +1 (RF, 480.1)

I believe that's everyone who has played in the Padre outfield this season.  If I've forgotten someone please mention them in the comments and I'll add their statistics to this post.  Based on the data, it appears the conventional wisdom is correct - Tony Gwynn Jr is the best outfield glove the Padres have.

For a team built on run prevention, it makes a whole lot of sense why they play Gwynn Jr in center field every day.  So long as he continues to go get it, and hit no higher than eighth in the order, he's helping the Padres more with his glove than he's hurting them with the bat (as an aside, he's worth 1.6 WAR according to Fangraphs - negative 2.1 batting and 9.9 fielding)

Do The Padres Need A Hitter?

One of the impressive things about this Padre start is what they've been able to do without much offense.  Coming into Tuesday's action, they had the third lowest wOBA in the National League, yet sported the league's best record.  Naturally their somewhat (somewhat?) anemic offense has started calls for the team to pick up a bat.

Last January, the San Diego SABR chapter was pleased to have Merv Rettenmund speak at one of their semi-annual meetings.  During that meeting, Rettenmund mentioned how Petco Park is very difficult to hit in during April/May, but that the ball "jumps" better once the summer starts.  Since 81 games a year are played at Petco, the park should play a big role in the team's month-to-month wOBA numbers*.  That, coupled with this year's team, got me thinking.  Has the Padre offense improved when the weather warms up, and can the Padres rely on this improvement to give them the 'jump' of offense they need to contend this summer without acquiring another bat?

*Granted, the monthly numbers will be affected by the number of home/road games played in that particular month.  I did not look at the schedules for each month when conducting this analysis.

Thanks to Fangraphs, I took a look at the Padre team wOBA, month by month, since Petco Park opened.  I included Mar-May 2010 in the data set, and threw out the high and low value for each month.  Here's a graph of the averages.

What I find interesting about this graph is, on average, the Padres struggle MORE to get on base once the summer starts (here summer is defined to start on Memorial Day.  Nothing if not a traditional outlook at Padres Trail).  The team wOBA is worse in June and July than it was in March/April, and May.  Note the big jump in August, and that jump is consistent across seasons (and talent levels of teams).

This tells me, although the ball may travel better once June 1 rolls around, it doesn't start jumping until August 1, and the Padres will continue to struggle offensively through 2/3 of the summer.  The team can't wait until August for an offensive boost.  A lot can happen in 60 days, including the Padres sinking completely out of contention.

There are a couple of positions on the diamond (most glaringly, shortstop, Jerry Hairston Jr's 3 HRs in the last 8 games not withstanding) where the Padres would be better off with a better bat.  I'm sure that Jed Hoyer's team, with their renewed emphasis on building a team that fits in Petco, has a list of candidates that could improve the team if on this roster.  It's probably time to start seriously looking at those options.

This team will contend all season given their pitching and defense.  It would be fantastic for their offense to get some help, and get them into the post-season.

(Here's the complete data set)

5/15 Game Recap: Dodgers vs Padres

Went to tonight's ball game.  It did not turn out like I had hoped, as San Diego lost to LA 4-1.  This is not your normal recap.

1. Since the game was advertised a sellout, I felt we had to get there early.  So, my father-in-law and I left for the ballpark at 3:20 pm.  Thanks to little traffic, we were parked by 3:50 and in the ballpark by 4.
2. Hot Dogs and soda.  mmmmm.
3. The section immediately to our right was loaded with Dodger fans.  Also, the 4 folks immediately behind us were LA fans as well.  They rooted for their team with gusto, and got obnoxious from time to time, but I really didn't have a problem with any of that.  Having spent a great deal of time rooting for favorite teams in opposing ballparks, so long as they aren't in my face or throwing things at people I'm good.  Of course, as the game went on and the Dodgers put a hammer lock on the outcome, they got more and more vocal.  And after the game?  Whooo boy.  Lots of chanting and heckling as they exited the building.
4. Why give out 'Beat LA' t-shirts that are blue?  Yes it was a dark blue, but the Dodgers wear blue too.  Why not Sand (or, egads, brown/yellow)?  Make it stand out, marketing gurus.
5. Also, 'Beat LA' is what they chant in San Francisco at Giants games, and in Boston at Celtics games.  I think the chant originated in the Boston Garden during the 1980s NBA finals, but I could be wrong.  We need something different and original here to poke at the Dodgers.

Some game notes follow next.

Two of three ain't bad

Everyone knew the Padres weren't going to finish the season 156-6.  They were going to lose another game in 2010.  I think most of us, however, figured it wouldn't be yesterday, especially after Kyle Blanks doubled in two to give the team a 4-2 lead after 5 1/2 innings.

Scott Rolen's HR made the game close after 6, but after turning the contest over to the bullpen one had to like the Padres' chances.  Going into Sunday, the Padres bullpen was one of only 2 in the NL not to have lost a game (the other?  Pittsburgh.  Go figure), the third lowest ERA (3.02), and the best Batting Average Against (.190).  Looking good.

Unfortunately, Mike Adams couldn't get the game to Heath Bell.  Cincinnati scored 2 in the eighth, and won 5-4.  Bye-bye, 8 game winning streak.

You gotta like where the Padres are now, though.  Form 3-6 to 11-7, and the best record in the NL.  The team is pitching its butt off, and they are getting just enough production offensively (10th in the NL with a .736 OPS).  There is some cause for concern, though:  Padre starters aren't getting deep enough into games.