Game Reflections - #127 vs Marlins

See? CLEARLY safe. (Kent C. Horner/Getty Images)

Managed to get out of the parking lot before the fireworks ended.  Victory.  Some thoughts on tonights game, composed while Larry Vannover reviews the tape and tries to justify calling LeBlanc out at home...

- It wasn't a bobblehead give away - the Padres were selling Tony Hawk dolls for $10.  Unexpected this was, and unfortunate.

- Marlins changed their lineup last minute, taking Mike Stanton out and juggling pretty much everyone else.  Apparently Stanton jammed his left big toe running into the RF scoreboard during last night's game (he was chasing a fly ball).  He went through all the pre-game stuff before being scratched.

- The Padres played 'Fight for Your Right (To Party)' by the Beastie Boys while waiting for San Diego to take the field.  They played a version that removes the 'living at home is such a drag/now your mom took away your best porno mag' lyric.  Uh, fellas?  That song is 25 years old.  EVERYONE in the ballpark has heard it by now.  Who's sensitive ears are you going to protect?

- LeBlanc was safe.

- Looked like Maybin might have been safe on his stolen base attempt in the first inning.   Florida pitched out, but it appeared he got his hand in while SS Emilio Bonifacio tagged him on the chest.  Most of the time, if the ball beats you you're out.  On that play at least 2B umpire Dan Bellino can be excused since Maybin's own body blocked him from judging when the tag was applied relative to when Maybin hit the bag.

- Kyle Blanks HR probably traveled 700' in the air.  From my vantage point it sure looked like the ball's apex was above the 'PETCO PARK' sign on top of the LF scoreboard.  What a moon shot.  393' was the official distance.  No way, man, no way.  That swing completely changed the game.

- Two times through the Marlin lineup, and Bonifacio had not swung at a pitch (seen 9, called out on strikes and walked on 4 pitches).  Alfredo Amezaga, however, the emergency LF starter due to Stanton's scratch, had swung at all 6 pitches he'd seen (4 foul, fly to CF, pop to 2B).  I thought that was quite funny.

- Pitcher Chris Volstad ripped his double up the LF/CF gap.  Mike Cameron, who's bat did indeed look slow, can still run (in fact I was surprised with how short a lead he took after singling in the fourth).  He scored without a play.

- LeBlanc is still safe.  What a ridiculous call.  He looked safe at normal speed, and was CLEARLY safe on the replay.  How can you blow that call?  It's your only job, Larry Vannover - to get the call right.  Take your time, we'll wait.  At least we now know how to wake up the Padre crowd.  They let Vannover have it the rest of that inning, and only quit really riding him after the sixth inning ended.

- Bonifacio made O-Dog dive into the dirt while completing a double play to end the sixth.  Threw it low.  In repsonse, Hudson practically undressed Home Run Ed in the eighth with a hard shot up the middle.  Yes I realize neither of these were intentional.

- The seventh inning saw something you rarely see - a pitching change in the middle of an at bat.  Jack McKeon pulled Chris Hatcher and replaced him with Ryan Webb while the count was 2-0 on Alberto Gonzalez.  In case you are wondering (and I was), had Webb walked Gonzalez that walk would have been charged to Hatcher.  Any other result was to be charged to Webb.  Gonzo reached on a FC.

- In the eighth, McKeon burned two pinch hitters on the same at bat, when Brett Hayes was announced then replaced by Dwayne Wise after Black pulled Spence in favor of Gregerson.  Hayes is the back-up catcher.  I have no idea what the Marlins would have done had John Buck then gotten hurt (the speculation was Gaby Sanchez would have caught).  It also explains why Buck was left in to run in the ninth after his leadoff walk - there was no way they could run for him.

- Blanks made a nice running catch of Sanchez' line drive leading off the fifth, and al-MOST caught Lopez's liner with two out in the seventh.  As Black said during the post-game interview, Blanks has quick feet, great hands, and is getting good jumps on balls hit his way.  All that hard work is paying off.

- Josh Spence's last 4 outings:  4 walks, 1 HBP, 1 K, 1 HR.  All of a sudden he's having trouble finding the plate.  With Joe Thatcher back on the big club, how much longer does Spence stay in San Diego?

Padres have won all 6 games against Florida this season. Nice to see us dominate someone.  I'll be at Sunday's game for the Retirement Ceremony, and am looking forward to it. I've never attended a number retiring ceremony, so I hope this lives up to expectations.

Oh, and LeBlanc is STILL safe!

So...Who's On First?

Rizzo is gone and Blanks is up.  Jesus Guzman is killing the ball at the moment, and somewhere Brad Hawpe continues to heal.  Bud Black potentially has 3 guys on the roster to play one spot - First Base.  So who gets the call?

Well the answer, as always, is 'it depends'.  Should Hawpe return to the roster, which is not a certainity given his left elbow ligament injury is not one known to heal quickly, they could platoon Hawpe and the two right-handed bats.  However, would you platoon two hitters when one is hitting

• .231/.301/.344, and the other
• .322/.344/.559? 

Me neither.  It's more likely that, when Hawpe returns from the DL, he becomes the left-handed bat off the bench.

Which brings us to Blanks and Guzman.  I'm not sure what we can reasonably expect from Blanks.  He was hitting AAA pitching pretty well (to the tune of .351/.421/.716), which looks suspiciously like Rizzo's line before he got called up (.365/.444/.715).  Granted, Blanks has Major League experience that Rizzo lacked, and also has sustained success at the ML level in his history.  I don't think he'll be as lost at the plate as Rizzo became, but I don't think he'll tear the cover off the ball like Guzman is right now.

Jed Hoyer stated yesterday during his interview with Darren Smith that Blanks will get a lot of playing time now that he's up.  If and when Ryan Ludwick gets traded away, it is entirely possible Blanks will man left and leave first to Guzman.  However, Blanks has been playing mostly first base during his rehab in the minor leagues, so it would seem reasonable he'd get most of that playing time in the infield.

Maybe the best way to look at it is this way.  San Diego has struggled offensively all year.  Jesus Guzman is one of the few Padres hitting the ball right now, and even given his limited plate appearances, by OPS+ he's the best bat on the roster.  He's earned the right to play every day.  Bud Black would be justified in riding the hot hand for a while, since he's had very few hot hands to ride this season.  Blanks will get the occasional start in both LF and at 1B for the next week, and once the trade deadline passes we'll see where we are.

Rizzo Sent to AAA, Blanks Recalled

Initially I was not a big advocate for promoting Rizzo before he was ready.  Lately I've thought that, since this is not a year that will produce a post-season berth, why not keep him on the roster?

Well, San Diego sent Anthony Rizzo down following today's 5-3 win in Miami.  This is why I'm not working in a front office somewhere.

One hundred seventeen plate appearances does not a career make.  It is a small sample size, given that most everyday players log upwards of 700 PA's in a season.  But 117 PA is enough to draw some conclusions and see some trends.  Rizzo came up and made some great contact initially, including a RF HR at Petco off Washington's John Lannan.  His high water mark may have been the Boston series, in which he hit 3 balls to the deepest part of Fenway (two doubles and an out courtesy of Jacoby Ellsbury).  Two days later he had the second multi-hit game of his career.

Since, as Geoff over at Ducksnorts noted (slightly updated), he's hit .107/.206/.143 in 63 PA.  He was 6 strikeouts short of striking out every other at bat.  Teams routinely busted him in, and he routinely swung at those pitches, whether they were up, or down, or in the strike zone, or off the plate.  He made very little contact.

He was outmatched.  There was no point in keeping him in SD.  There are things he clearly needs to work on at the plate, and now that he has an idea of what they are he can spend the time to fix them.

Anthony Rizzo will be back.  It won't be until after 1 September, and might not be until next year (although I would be real surprised if he wasn't a roster expansion call-up).

In his place, we welcome Kyle Blanks back to the roster. Finally I can put my Blanks bobble head out and not get ridiculed ('Hey isn't that guy who had a bobble head night when he wasn't on the roster?'  yes, thanks for the reminder.)  Blanks is the original Rizzo: the kid who tore it up in the minors, then struggled mightily at the major league level when holes in his approach appeared (like an inability to hit a pitch low and away).  Like Rizzo, Blanks has legitimate big-league power, and assuming he can hit the pitches he couldn't reach last season will be a middle-of-the-order threat here.  Headley, Ludwick (for the next 10 days at least), and Blanks 3-4-5 is pretty good.

Not Pujols-Holliday-Berkman good, but still pretty darn good.

Padres start a 4-game set in scorched Philadelphia tomorrow.  My regular Thursday Podcast will air tonight, hope you can join me.

Zawadzki down, Ryan up

First, some self-promotion:  my weekly Padres recap at Baseball Digest is up for your enjoyment.

A rather quiet off day.  Among several moves the Padres made on Monday, two stood out:  Lance Zawadzki was optioned back to Portland, and catcher Dusty Ryan was called up.  It's interesting Zawadzki was sent down given Jed Hoyer's recent comments about not having someone on the roster able to spell Chase Headley at third from time to time.  That problem was probably exacerbated with Everth Cabrera's injury, which forced Jerry Hairston Jr to play every day at short.  With this move, there's no one to back-up Headley at third.

Dusty Ryan's call-up may be a precursor to Yorvit Torrealba serving his suspension.  I believe MLB rules prevent teams from replacing a suspended player on the roster; in other words, while Torrealba is serving his suspension they have to play with 24 men.  Could someone confirm that in the comments if so inclined?  I wonder if the team told Torrealba to just serve the suspension and get it over with.  Note that's all speculation on my part.

Ryan has a total of 80 plate appearances over 2 years in the majors, all with Detroit.  He didn't hit the ball well at all in 2009; hopefully he's put that behind him.  Welcome to the National League, Dusty Ryan.

Elsewhere, the aforementioned Cabrera continues his rehab assignment and could be back with the Padres late this week.  Also, Kyle Blanks has suffered a setback in his rehab, coming down with elbow stiffness.  He was due to complete rehabbing on Sunday, when the Padres would either have to activate him or option him to AAA.  Looks like that decision will wait for a later day.

Padres start a 3-game set with Tampa Bay, which will conclude the Interleague docket for 2010.  San Diego is catching the Rays at a good time; Tampa has dropped 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 9 against the NL.

5/15 Game Recap: Dodgers vs Padres

Went to tonight's ball game.  It did not turn out like I had hoped, as San Diego lost to LA 4-1.  This is not your normal recap.

1. Since the game was advertised a sellout, I felt we had to get there early.  So, my father-in-law and I left for the ballpark at 3:20 pm.  Thanks to little traffic, we were parked by 3:50 and in the ballpark by 4.
2. Hot Dogs and soda.  mmmmm.
3. The section immediately to our right was loaded with Dodger fans.  Also, the 4 folks immediately behind us were LA fans as well.  They rooted for their team with gusto, and got obnoxious from time to time, but I really didn't have a problem with any of that.  Having spent a great deal of time rooting for favorite teams in opposing ballparks, so long as they aren't in my face or throwing things at people I'm good.  Of course, as the game went on and the Dodgers put a hammer lock on the outcome, they got more and more vocal.  And after the game?  Whooo boy.  Lots of chanting and heckling as they exited the building.
4. Why give out 'Beat LA' t-shirts that are blue?  Yes it was a dark blue, but the Dodgers wear blue too.  Why not Sand (or, egads, brown/yellow)?  Make it stand out, marketing gurus.
5. Also, 'Beat LA' is what they chant in San Francisco at Giants games, and in Boston at Celtics games.  I think the chant originated in the Boston Garden during the 1980s NBA finals, but I could be wrong.  We need something different and original here to poke at the Dodgers.

Some game notes follow next.

Padre Open House

Some Photos from tonight.

The Author and Joe Thatcher.

The Mrs. and Everth Cabrera.

Boy Kyle Blanks looks bored, doesn't he?

Jeff Moorad

Jed Hoyer sporting the new Padres Military Logo. I like it.

Uh-oh, the press box was left unlocked...

It's Raining Hairstons

Catching up on things after the long weekend. And, since the Chargers apparently decided they didn't want to play football anymore this January, there's not much else to talk about locally.

We discussed Heath Bell in the last post. On Friday the Padres pulled the trigger and sent Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. San Diego included AAA second baseman Eric Sogard in the trade.

You will no doubt remember Scott Hairston started last year as a Padre, but was traded mid-season to the same A's for Sean Marshall, Ryan Webb, and Craig Italiano. Webb and Italiano are both minor leaguers, as is Cunningham. Since the club got Hairston, using the commutative property (I come for the baseball but I STAY for the math) this trade is actually:

SAN DIEGO - Gets Marshall, Webb, Italiano, Cunningham
OAKLAND - Gets Kouzmanoff, Sogard.

Two big arms in Webb and Italiano, an OF (Cunningham) that new Padres CEO Jeff Moorad was very high on when the kid labored in the Arizona organization (he went to Oakland as part of the Dan Haren trade), and Sean Marshall (a Cub burnout). Okay. For that we give up a good glove/decent power third baseman, and a utility infielder prospect.

It will be years before the winner of this trade is known, but right now, I like what the Padres did here.

The immediate aftermath. Chase Headley becomes the Padre third baseman. Kyle Blanks is the heavy favorite to play left. I view both of those consequences as positive ones for San Diego. Headley showed a prolonged flash of why the team ranked him their #1 prospect in the month he played third last season while Kouzmanoff was hurt. Blanks has big-time power. I think this team is better now, certainly at the ML level, than they were before the weekend.

I mean no disrespect to Kevin Kouzmanoff. I bear no ill will to him and wish him nothing but success in Oakland. I think, however, getting Blanks everyday at bats outweighs the loss in production that Headley represents when compared to Kouzmanoff.

Tonight the Coach John Cantera reported on XX 1090 the Padres had signed Jerry Hairston, Jr to a one-year deal. Hairston played for the Yankees at the tail end of last year. Hairston's biggest strength is he can play all over the diamond -2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF. He's the uber-utility guy. In a world where most teams carry 12 pitchers, meaning only 4 position player spots on the bench, having a guy who's competent at several positions is a huge benefit.

I couldn't help but smirk at the Padres acquiring/signing both Hairston boys in the span of 3 days. No reason.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jerry Hairston Sr becomes a coach or something before spring training starts. His kids say he could still play 50 games at the ML level. Kids are great, aren't they? Stroking the old guy's ego. I hope my kids do that for me. Although they'll probably just ask me for money.

Trade Rumors: Kouzmanoff and Bell

On the ride home, Lee "Hacksaw" Hamilton spent a lot of breath discussing potential Padre moves at this week's winter meetings. What started this hot-air-a-blowin'? Trade rumors having Kouzmanoff headed to San Francisco, and Heath Bell headed just about anywhere.

The SD U-T online edition has a story detailing the Giants offer:

The Giants are said to be interested in Kouzmanoff, although the Padres are not interested in the Giants reported first offer – left-handed hitting outfielder Fred Lewis and middle infielder Kevin Frandsen.

I don't want to get into the specifics of this trade offer. The larger question is, is trading Kouzmanoff and/or Bell the right thing to do?

There is some sentiment out there to leave the current Padre roster as is. After all, they went 45-27 down the stretch, which means they played .625 ball. Although the Padres finish was something to be proud of, and cause for hope, even that Padre team isn't good enough to compete for a division title or a wild card. They have to get better. Currently, by my estimation, they need a catcher, second baseman, and since they intend to non-tender Correia, another starting pitcher.

How do they acquire those guys? Buy trading players they can afford to give up, players whose loss may sting in the short-term, but won't in the long view.

And that means trading Kouzmanoff and Bell.

Heath Bell had a spectacular first year as a closer, complete with selection to the NL All-Star team. His value may never be higher than it is right now. Who would replace Bell? Consider:

Heath Bell: 2.42 FIP, 10.21 K/9, .303 BABIP
Mike Adams: 1.66 FIP, 10.95 K/9, .166 BABIP
Luke Gregerson: 2.50 FIP, 11.16 K/9, .332 BABIP
Luis Perdomo: 5.35 FIP, 8.29 K/9, .287 BABIP

Ok, so including Perdomo might be a mistake. And Adams' BABIP is probably unstainable over a career - actually it most definitely isn't sustainable. But the point is either Adams or Gregerson has the stuff to close. Losing Heath Bell won't hamstring the Padres at the end of games. Kevin Towers did a fine job reconstructing the bullpen during the first half of 2009. And they have other power arms to fill out their 2010 bullpen should Bell leave.

Not to mention there are plenty of GM's out there willing to overpay for a closer. Remember JJ Putz? The Mets over-paid for his services, and that trade helped resurrect the Mariners. Hoyer should pull the trigger if he gets the pieces he's looking for and ship Bell somewhere.

Kouzmanoff is a tougher call, but they should move him too. Kevin is coming off a season where his UZR was the second best in baseball for third basemen, and he set a ML record for fielding percentage. Why should the Padres trade him? The Padres have three players for two positions - third and left. Kouz, Chase Headley, and Kyle Blanks. Headley and Kouz can play third, Headley and Blanks can play left. Well, they try to play left.

Blanks has ridiculous power. Dave Kingman/Willy Mo Pena kind of power. Looking for a guy to support Gonzo in the lineup as a consistent power threat? Blanks is your man. They have to find a way to get his bat in the lineup every day. And, albeit with a small sample size, Blanks was the better left fielder. Headley's UZR/150 was -11.1 in 2009. Blanks' was 21.9. Start Blanks in left.

So that means either Headley or Kouz at third. Kouz is the better fielder, but Headley wasn't a slouch. At third his UZR/150 was 4.4 (granted, that's a small sample size of 28 games). But here's the kicker for me: in 17 straight games at third (from 9-27 Sept), Headley hit .303 and had an .816 OPS. For his career he's pnly hitting .263 with a .740 OPS. I would say that's a pretty significant jump in production when he quit having to worry about playing the OF and returned to his natural position. Kouz? career .308/.743. Headley has more power upside (potentially) at third, and hits for average at about the same rate.

Headley can replace Kouz rather effortlessly. Kouz is another tradeable Padre. I think they should trade Kouz.