It's Raining Hairstons

Catching up on things after the long weekend. And, since the Chargers apparently decided they didn't want to play football anymore this January, there's not much else to talk about locally.

We discussed Heath Bell in the last post. On Friday the Padres pulled the trigger and sent Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. San Diego included AAA second baseman Eric Sogard in the trade.

You will no doubt remember Scott Hairston started last year as a Padre, but was traded mid-season to the same A's for Sean Marshall, Ryan Webb, and Craig Italiano. Webb and Italiano are both minor leaguers, as is Cunningham. Since the club got Hairston, using the commutative property (I come for the baseball but I STAY for the math) this trade is actually:

SAN DIEGO - Gets Marshall, Webb, Italiano, Cunningham
OAKLAND - Gets Kouzmanoff, Sogard.

Two big arms in Webb and Italiano, an OF (Cunningham) that new Padres CEO Jeff Moorad was very high on when the kid labored in the Arizona organization (he went to Oakland as part of the Dan Haren trade), and Sean Marshall (a Cub burnout). Okay. For that we give up a good glove/decent power third baseman, and a utility infielder prospect.

It will be years before the winner of this trade is known, but right now, I like what the Padres did here.

The immediate aftermath. Chase Headley becomes the Padre third baseman. Kyle Blanks is the heavy favorite to play left. I view both of those consequences as positive ones for San Diego. Headley showed a prolonged flash of why the team ranked him their #1 prospect in the month he played third last season while Kouzmanoff was hurt. Blanks has big-time power. I think this team is better now, certainly at the ML level, than they were before the weekend.

I mean no disrespect to Kevin Kouzmanoff. I bear no ill will to him and wish him nothing but success in Oakland. I think, however, getting Blanks everyday at bats outweighs the loss in production that Headley represents when compared to Kouzmanoff.

Tonight the Coach John Cantera reported on XX 1090 the Padres had signed Jerry Hairston, Jr to a one-year deal. Hairston played for the Yankees at the tail end of last year. Hairston's biggest strength is he can play all over the diamond -2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF. He's the uber-utility guy. In a world where most teams carry 12 pitchers, meaning only 4 position player spots on the bench, having a guy who's competent at several positions is a huge benefit.

I couldn't help but smirk at the Padres acquiring/signing both Hairston boys in the span of 3 days. No reason.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jerry Hairston Sr becomes a coach or something before spring training starts. His kids say he could still play 50 games at the ML level. Kids are great, aren't they? Stroking the old guy's ego. I hope my kids do that for me. Although they'll probably just ask me for money.

Not the Pu Pu Platter

Reports exist indicating the Twins have offered Glen Perkins, Mike Redmond, and Nick Punto for Kevin Kouzmanoff.

If that's true, I hope Hoyer rejects the offer while saying something cool, like 'Hasta La Vista, Baby', 'Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out of my suite', or 'Do I look like Dayton Moore to you?'

A lousy starter, back up catcher, and David Eckstein II for Kouzmanoff. Excuse me if I don't get all woozy for this one.

Trade Rumors: Kouzmanoff and Bell

On the ride home, Lee "Hacksaw" Hamilton spent a lot of breath discussing potential Padre moves at this week's winter meetings. What started this hot-air-a-blowin'? Trade rumors having Kouzmanoff headed to San Francisco, and Heath Bell headed just about anywhere.

The SD U-T online edition has a story detailing the Giants offer:

The Giants are said to be interested in Kouzmanoff, although the Padres are not interested in the Giants reported first offer – left-handed hitting outfielder Fred Lewis and middle infielder Kevin Frandsen.

I don't want to get into the specifics of this trade offer. The larger question is, is trading Kouzmanoff and/or Bell the right thing to do?

There is some sentiment out there to leave the current Padre roster as is. After all, they went 45-27 down the stretch, which means they played .625 ball. Although the Padres finish was something to be proud of, and cause for hope, even that Padre team isn't good enough to compete for a division title or a wild card. They have to get better. Currently, by my estimation, they need a catcher, second baseman, and since they intend to non-tender Correia, another starting pitcher.

How do they acquire those guys? Buy trading players they can afford to give up, players whose loss may sting in the short-term, but won't in the long view.

And that means trading Kouzmanoff and Bell.

Heath Bell had a spectacular first year as a closer, complete with selection to the NL All-Star team. His value may never be higher than it is right now. Who would replace Bell? Consider:

Heath Bell: 2.42 FIP, 10.21 K/9, .303 BABIP
Mike Adams: 1.66 FIP, 10.95 K/9, .166 BABIP
Luke Gregerson: 2.50 FIP, 11.16 K/9, .332 BABIP
Luis Perdomo: 5.35 FIP, 8.29 K/9, .287 BABIP

Ok, so including Perdomo might be a mistake. And Adams' BABIP is probably unstainable over a career - actually it most definitely isn't sustainable. But the point is either Adams or Gregerson has the stuff to close. Losing Heath Bell won't hamstring the Padres at the end of games. Kevin Towers did a fine job reconstructing the bullpen during the first half of 2009. And they have other power arms to fill out their 2010 bullpen should Bell leave.

Not to mention there are plenty of GM's out there willing to overpay for a closer. Remember JJ Putz? The Mets over-paid for his services, and that trade helped resurrect the Mariners. Hoyer should pull the trigger if he gets the pieces he's looking for and ship Bell somewhere.

Kouzmanoff is a tougher call, but they should move him too. Kevin is coming off a season where his UZR was the second best in baseball for third basemen, and he set a ML record for fielding percentage. Why should the Padres trade him? The Padres have three players for two positions - third and left. Kouz, Chase Headley, and Kyle Blanks. Headley and Kouz can play third, Headley and Blanks can play left. Well, they try to play left.

Blanks has ridiculous power. Dave Kingman/Willy Mo Pena kind of power. Looking for a guy to support Gonzo in the lineup as a consistent power threat? Blanks is your man. They have to find a way to get his bat in the lineup every day. And, albeit with a small sample size, Blanks was the better left fielder. Headley's UZR/150 was -11.1 in 2009. Blanks' was 21.9. Start Blanks in left.

So that means either Headley or Kouz at third. Kouz is the better fielder, but Headley wasn't a slouch. At third his UZR/150 was 4.4 (granted, that's a small sample size of 28 games). But here's the kicker for me: in 17 straight games at third (from 9-27 Sept), Headley hit .303 and had an .816 OPS. For his career he's pnly hitting .263 with a .740 OPS. I would say that's a pretty significant jump in production when he quit having to worry about playing the OF and returned to his natural position. Kouz? career .308/.743. Headley has more power upside (potentially) at third, and hits for average at about the same rate.

Headley can replace Kouz rather effortlessly. Kouz is another tradeable Padre. I think they should trade Kouz.