Spiking Chad Qualls

"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."  John Lennon

That's my best explanation for the silence over here these past 6 days.  In the interim, San Diego scored 2 runs (one gifted to them courtesy of the Phil Cuzzi Foundation) at Seattle, then hung 5 runs each on 2 San Francisco All-Star starters.  They'd be going for the sweep today if not for the rare Mike Adams hiccup in last night's eighth inning.  Well that and 17 consecutive Padres retired by the Giant bullpen to close out the game.

I want to go back to Wednesday's 5-3 triumph for a moment, because this headline caught my eye today:

"Quals Being Excoriated in San Francisco"

First, excoriated is one of my all-time favorite words.  Increase your vocabulary:  'excoriated' means to denounce or berate severely, to flay verbally.  Hat Tip to Chris Jenkins for using it in his lede.  Second, this article shows how ridiculous sports talk has become.

Sports are played with emotion.  This is more obvious in some sports, like football, than others.  Sometimes I think people consider baseball more a 19th century-type gentlemen's competition instead of an emotional gut-check.  Those folks aren't privy to a good rivalry where it's apparent emotion runs high.  San Francisco vs San Diego developed that edge last season down the stretch, and it's carried over this year, if the last 3 games are any indication.  Whether or not the players admit it, these games have had a playoff edge, which shouldn't exist in July between the first and 4th place teams in a division.

So there's that going in.  Then there's the inning itself.  Andres Torres is a pest. Pest Pest Pest Pest (I mean that in the most respectful way), as evidenced by his 16-pitch walk that started this fracas with one out.  Qualls threw every pitch he had at Torres, who kept fouling the good ones off and taking the ones he couldn't hit.  Despite the fact that ball 4 looked like strike 3 on the replay, he worked the walk.  Chad, knowing the Giants were down 2 and that Torres was probably going, threw over a couple of times to keep Andres close, but Torres stole second anyway.

Now he's an even bigger pest.  Torres gets to third on Crawford's 4-3 groundout, and when the 2-2 pitch skips away from Hundley he takes off for the plate.  Normally the runner beats the throw home, because the catcher has to grab the ball, make a perfect throw to the plate that the pitcher covering can handle, and said pitcher has to both block the plate and apply the tag on the runner.  Hard to do.

"YER OUT!"

Qualls did it.  Inning over, 2-run lead preserved.  Having finally retired the Pest, he spiked the ball and exulted.

Could he have handled it in a more Victorian way?  Sure.  I'm glad he did what he did though.  It was an important run kept off the board, he made a play he had no business making, and finally retired a guy who had been a major pain in his side that half-inning.  A little raw emotion is good for the soul. 

You got a problem with the occasional emoting on the field of battle?  Go watch badmiton.

How would the Padres have done?

Day 1 of the playoffs is in the books.  Philadelphia's Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds 4-0.  Since both those teams could have been Padres opponents, I thought:  How would the Padres have done?

1.  Would Halladay have no-hit San Diego?  With the stuff he had last night, Roy Halladay would have no-hit the '27 Yankees.  More to the point, here are the Reds and Padres relative NL rankings in various hitting categories:

• Average:  Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
• OBP:  Reds (2nd), Padres (13th)
• Slugging:   Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
• ISO:  Reds (2nd), Padres (15th)
• And of course, wOBA Reds (1st), Padres (15th).

So if Roy Halladay could no-hit the Reds last night, who were in the top 2 in most offensive categories (including nose hair), the Padres would have gotten clobbered.  And probably had a perfect game thrown at them.  Can't you see Ryan Ludwick flailing wildly at all those 'palm balls' Halladay flicked up there?

2.  Would the Padres have no-hit Cincinnati?  A little more difficult to answer.  The game would have been here, so that's an advantage for the Padre starter.  Who would have been the Padre starter?  Chris Young would have pitched the Monday play-in game, so Bud Black's options were Jon Garland on extra rest or Clayton Richard on full rest (let's eliminate Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos from consideration; no way they start Game 1 on short rest).

• Neither Garland nor Richard have thrown a no-hitter in their careers to date.
• Garland has 2 post-season starts; he allowed 4 ER in 16 IP (ERA:  2.25) as a White Sox in 2005.  Richard has never started a post-season game.
• The Reds hit .275/.335/.437 against RHP and .265/.346/.434 against LHP.  That's known as a wash.  No advantage there.
• The Padres lost both of Richard's starts against Cincinnati this season.  The Padres were 4-2 against Cincinnati overall.  Garland's teams are 2-2 in his career when he started against the Reds.

So probably Garland.  Garland would have 6 days rest between starts (last start 30 Sept).  He is 14-16 career with a 4.86 ERA when starting on that much rest.  He did throw a 4-hitter at the Cubs in that 30 Sept start, but it was a wet cold day in San Diego, which probably helped him out.  If pinned into a corner, I'd say no, the Padres don't no-hit Cincinnati.

Of course, it doesn't matter.  San Diego lost last Sunday.  Which meant I had to do this today.

Because, You Know, We Need Some Levity Here

When I came to work today, I was blue.  No, not literally.  I was tired, I blew off my workout period (which I later regretted), my right calf ached where I was hit by a batted ball last night (Sure sign you should stop pitching to your team in 3-pitch softball?  You start getting hit every game, because you're too slow to get your glove down and/or get your legs out of the way gracefully).

Then I came to work, found my way to Deadspin, and discovered the Fire Joe Morgan team was posting.  Oh Happy Day.

Amongst the usual excellent satire (which included a Joe Morgan piece, appropriately enough) was a story on a subject that drew me to their site in the first place:  David Eckstein and his grittiness.

It is worth the read.  But in case you don't have the time today/tonight to read the full article, I carefully chose this paragraph for your perusal, mostly because I don't want to lose it to history.

No room in the game for David Eckstein? "I hope that's not the case," Black said recently. "He's a baseball player with talent. One thing I think gets overlooked: he can play.

IT IS NOT OVERLOOKED. IT IS ALL ANYONE EVER FUCKING TALKS ABOUT.

You know who's overlooked? Adrian Fucking Gonzalez. Nobody in the world outside of Adrian Gonzalez's immediate family has any idea he even exists, much less that he is one of the very best hitters in the world. A reporter recently asked Yorvit Torrealba to talk about how good Adrian Gonzalez has been for the Pads this year, and Torrealba said, "There is no one on our team by that name. You are mistaken. Perhaps you mean to ask about David Eckstein?" Then he directed the reporter over to a velvet-roped-off area down the left field line where David Eckstein was standing on a giant lazy susan, like a 20-foot Bowrider at a boat show, rotating slowly as thousands of screaming journalists took his picture so they could say they once got the chance to see the great David Eckstein in person. And while this was happening, Adrian Gonzalez, who has a .922 OPS hitting in fucking Petco every night, was outside gnawing on discarded chicken wings in a dumpster because he doesn't even get paid for playing baseball, because nobody knows who he is. That's a true story, people.

Man I miss Fire Joe Morgan.

Remaining Latos starts, and a fun Quiz

Had a great podcast Thursday night.  Thanks to all those folks filling the chat room with commentary.  I had a caller - first one I've had in over a month (ballgirl hasn't called in a while, although she did chat us up last night).  Unfortunately for me, the caller broke into Spanish, and I'm probably the only guy in South Bay that doesn't understand Spanish.  Not sure what to do, I ended up cutting his mike.  Sorry dude.  Maybe I should have asked him to switch to English first.

At any rate, the whole show is worth a listen.

I did want to elaborate, or at least mention, one of the discussion points that came up, and that's the number of starts Mat Latos has left this season.  As you no doubt are aware, Latos started the season with a 150 inning ceiling on his arm.  As the year progressed, and Latos matured into the best starting pitcher on the club, that ceiling was raised to 150-180 innings.  After leaving the game tonight, he's thrown 149 2/3, and his start tonight was after he was pushed off his normal start date of Tuesday night.

So what's the season got left for him? (As an aside, Mark Grant/Mark Neely discussed this during the game.  Grant thinks Latos has 7 starts left)

• 1 Sept @ Arizona.  Since Garland is behind him in the rotation, I could definitely see Bud Black sending Garland on short rest and skipping Latos, since 2 Sept is an off-day.  No Start
• 6 Sept vs LA.  Will be 10 days between starts.  He might start earlier in the week against Colorado.  Start
• 11 Sept vs SF.  Latos has owned the Giants this season.  Start
• 16 Sept at STL.  Here we get into the 'it might depend on what the standings are' final two weeks.  If the Padres maintain their current advantage over San Francisco, the magic number for this game would be 9.  I'm thinking the Padres probably start him.  Start
• 21 Sept at LA.  This is the day after an off-day, so a good date to skip Latos if desired.  And it's probably desired.  No Start
• 26 Sept vs CIN.  Probably his last start of the regular season.  If all stays as is right now, this will be the game the Padres clinch the division.  Start
• 1 Oct at SF.  Unless they need to win this game in order to fight off the Giants, there's no way Latos pitches.  No Start

So I can see Latos making 4 more starts this season.  There has been talk about spot starts in September, for Stauffer or perhaps Luebke, which makes this plan all the more probable.  6 innings in 4 starts would be 24 innings, and put Latos at 173 innings headed into the post-season.

I'm also willing to bet Latos will start one game in each round if the Padres get all the way to the World Series.  So figure he'll top out at about 200 innings this season.  I just can't see SD shutting him down if they are making a deep run into October.

Finally for your weekend viewing pleasure, after the jump we have a riddle.  Using the pictures (one NSFW) as your only hints, what is the line score at this point in the game.  Leave your guess in the comments.  Answer Monday.

Now is not the time to Panic

There's been some talk about how the Padres are slumping right now, at least over their last 10 games (4-6).  Granted, their record would make one think that.  But let's look at this objectively.

• Padres came off an emotional series against the Dodgers and dropped 2 of 3 to Florida.  Florida historically has succeeded in Petco (the Marlins had won 9 of their last 12 games in San Diego entering the series), and threw three of their best pitchers.  Padres managed to beat their ace (Josh Johnson) but lost the other two.
• Padres then head to LA to play those Dodgers again.  Despite being shut out for 17+ innings they come away with a split.
• Padres finish off the road trip in Arizona, where they've lost 2 of every 3 games they've played.  Again they lose 2 of 3.

Is the Padre offense in a minor funk?  Yes, but no more so then they've endured all season.  They did score 10 runs in two different games on the recent road trip.  Have their trade deadline acquisitions not had much of an impact yet?  Yes, that's true; Ludwick and Tejada are a combined 13 for 65 (.200) with one HR between them (Tejada); Ludwick didn't get his first extra base hit as a Padre until Saturday.  But not a cause to panic yet.

Perhaps their recent 4-6 record is due to facing some tough pitching and playing in two parks where they have historically struggled (San Diego is 27-34 since 2004 in LA, 159-194 all-time).  They still have the best record in the NL, and they still enjoy a 2 game lead on the Giants.

So don't panic.

Now if the Padres lose this series to Pittsburgh...

Padres drop a heartbreaker on Strasmus Day

In case you couldn't tear yourself away from the ancient and royal festivities surrounding Strasmus Day in our Nation's capital, the Padres played a tense game last night in New York.

(They say Stephen Strasburg walked on the Potomac as part of his game preparation.)

A Chase Headley single and Adrian Gonzalez double with one out in the first started the Padres off, and for a long while it looked like it would be enough.  Clayton Richard threw very well and had a shutout with two out in the seventh, when Jose Reyes hit the tying HR to left (although that shot would have to be confirmed via replay).

(Strasburg free climbs the Washington Monument as part of his strength and conditioning program.)

San Diego had opportunities to forge ahead.  Lance Zawadzki doubled with one out in the eighth and was left.  Scott Hairston got to second thanks to a David Wright throwing error and was stranded.  David Eckstein singled and was moved to second on a sacrifice bunt, but he stayed right there.  One only gets so many opportunities to win a game.

(Strasburg puts his pants on both legs at the same time without jumping.)

Based on bullpen usage during the Philadelphia series, Edward Mujica was the most rested arm down there as this game headed into extras.  Mujica has allowed the second most HR by a reliever in the NL behind only Juan Guitterez of Arizona, and he crept closer in that department as Ike Davis rounded the bases off him.  2-1 Mets in 11.

(Strasburg has sent his Mom flowers every day since he signed his ML contract.)

Coupled with another Dodger win, the Padres fell out of first place for the first time since April 19.  It doesn't get any easier for San Diego, they get Johan Santana again today.

The SABR mini-regional Saturday was a success, and I will have a post on that up later Wednesday.

Check This Out

So the Padres lost 4-2 today.  Ubaldo pitched well, Garland battled, the Padres tried to come back and fell short.  Ho hum.

Since I don't have much to say about the game, I will instead share this REALLY COOL screen grab from ESPN's Gameday coverage of yesterday's game:

Now when you look carefully, you'll notice it says:

• Strike One (Foul)
• Strike Two (Foul)
• Ball 1
• Strike 3 (looking)
• STRIKE 4 (FOUL)
• In Play (Hariston Jr Singles to Center)

Congratulations to Jerry Hairston Jr for being the first ML hitter in recorded history to strike out looking, yet get two more pitches in the same at bat and reach base safely on a single to CF!

Actually sometimes Gameday hiccups a little bit.  This is one of the better hiccups I've seen.

The Phone Call?

Somewhere downtown, on a Friday morning...a phone rings.

"Hello?"

"Jed my boy! How ya been? How's San Diego treating you?"

JED HOYER: "Hey Theo. Dude you were right - this place is fantastic! Look at me - I'm saying 'dude' now!"

THEO EPSTEIN: "That's great man! And the fish tacos - Rubio's right? Did I tell you?"

JH: "Theo. Those Rubio's tacos were a little heavy on the cabbage. I found this hole in the wall place out on Point Loma that I really like, though."

TE: "Whatever. Listen, you saw how I gave Bay the boot, right? And that Lackey signing? Pretty cool, eh? We're going back to the World Series!"

JH: "Theo, you know I'm the Padres GM now and-"

TE: "The last piece is to solve my corner infield problem. I can't give away Lowell, but with his hip I can't play him at third anymore either. Remember how we kept dreaming about Adrian Gonzalez as a Red Sox?"

JH: "I remember you thought he'd be a nice fit-"

TE: "Well with Lackey and Cameron I've got some room to maneuver. I keep getting these 'Tweets' saying the you guys want a right-handed centerfielder, and everyone needs more pitching. So how's this: I'll pick up the tab on Cameron for the next two years, and send him with Buchholz to you for Gonzo. You can't pass that up!"

JH: "I'm not sure that's entirely ethical-"

TE: "What's not to like? You get a young pitcher with a lot of upside you control cheaply for another 4 years, and a 4-time Gold Glove centerfielder to patrol the canyon out there at Petco who has EXPERIENCE patrolling Petco, and I get a left handed first baseman."

JH: "Gonzo is our best player. He's our biggest draw and considered a native son to baseball fans on both sides of the border. I can't-"

TE: "Confound it man, you have to break a few eggs to make an omelette! Getting Cameron allows you to move Gwynn to left and Blanks to first. A rotation of Young/Correia/Richard/Buchholz/Latos is pretty intimidating. I'm glad I'm here in the AL East! You know you'll never sign Gonzo to a long term deal so long as you're hamstrung with a $40 million dollar payroll. So whaddya say? I'll fax you the paperwork!"

JH: "Theo, I really appreciate the fact you gave me my start in the business side of baseball. I do. And I'll never forget what you taught me. But with a new ownership group in place, and a fan base already frustrated by the way Jake Peavy left town, I might as well walk to the top of the Coronado Bridge and jump if I trade Adrian Gonzalez away."

TE: "You're kidding, right?"

JH: "No. No deal."

TE: "Well I tried. Can you send me one of those tacos you raved about?"

JH: "Sure. Can you advance me $6.25? I haven't been paid yet."

This conversation probably never took place.

Ten Children's Books That'll Never Be Written

As I return from hiatus, here's a whimsical little list for your enjoyment.

1. Curious George Takes a Bong Hit
2. Thomas Runs Over the Guy Wearing an iPod Walking Too Close to the Tracks
3. Mickey Mouse Meets the Exterminator
4. Clifford's Big Dump
5. Handy Manny and the INS Agent
6. Goodnight Moon, But I Wish The Curtains Were Thicker
7. Just Go To Bed Already!
8. Return My Keys Or Everyone Gets It
9. Doc Hudson Goes to the Junkyard
10. Bruce Discovers Fish Are Food, Not Friends