Off-Season Acquisition: Andrew Cashner

With FriarFest behind us and pitchers/catchers reported, let's take a look at the Padres off-season acquisitions, working backwards.  Today, Andrew Cashner.

Starter?  Reliever?  Time will tell

Warning:  this post may end up more about Jed Hoyer than Cashner.

On January 6th the Padres sent Anthony Rizzo and RHP Zach Cates to Chicago for RHP Andrew Cashner and  OF Kyung-Min Na.

Cashner is a former first-round draft pick of the Cubs (19th overall in 2008), so he has talent.  However, he lost the 2011 season after straining the rotator cuff in his throwing arm in April of last year.  He apparently successfully rehabilitated it with rest and physical therapy, as he threw 10 2/3 innings in September.  Cashner hurt his shoulder during a start, which explains why the Padres think he'll eventually be a starter.  It is his only major-league start to date.

Cashner has value but at this point in his career it is uncertain if that will be as a starter or reliever.  He's also a big risk for the Padres, in that the club acquired a recently-injured pitcher.  Yes he passed his physical, but that is no guarantee he won't hurt that arm during spring training.  Heck Adam Wainwright passed his physical prior to 2011 spring training and then missed the entire year to Tommy John surgery.

So much for the Anthony Rizzo Era.

To get Cashner the Padres gave up Anthony Rizzo.  Rizzo, evaluated as the third best prospect in the Boston Red Sox organization (and their best power prospect) prior to the 2010 season, came to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  Fairly or unfairly, he was seen as the replacement for Gonzalez, and was expected to produce once brought up to the major league level.  That he destroyed AAA pitching at Tucson to the tune of a .331/.404/.652 line only added to the hype and expectation.  However, once in the majors he was exposed as a left-handed hitter with a long swing who couldn't handle fastballs under his hands.  He might eventually be able to fix that - make his swing more compact and learn to turn on an inside fastball.

But that was not going to help him in Petco.  The Padres (and their fans) soon learned, to their dismay, that Anthony Rizzo was a completely different hitter from Adrian Gonzalez.  Gonzo's strength revolved around his opposite-field power.  He posted a .808 OPS at Petco largely because of his ability to hit the ball out to left.  Rizzo is a dead-pull left-handed power hitter playing in a ballpark that is death to dead-pull left-handed power hitters.

By all accounts, Rizzo is a mentally tough, courageous, great character guy who happens to play baseball.  He's beaten cancer at the ripe old age of 22.  Jed Hoyer knew him from his time with the Red Sox and obviously thinks very highly of him.  But even great character guys are susceptible to the same doubts that plague you and I.  Watching balls he crushed get knocked down in straight-away right, or go into the 411-foot triangle in RC before being caught, can get to the most mentally tough individual.  Ask Ryan Ludwick - and he was hitting to left.

Which brings us to Hoyer.  Jed relieved Kevin Towers following the 2009 season and was obviously charged with rebuilding the Padres minor league system.  He, along with Jason McLeod, did just that; in fact, San Diego's farm was recently ranked as the best in MLB by ESPN's Keith Law.  But I think it's safe to say they made a mistake when they acquired Anthony Rizzo for the Padres.  His power did not play well in downtown San Diego.

Since that blockbuster trade prior to the 2011 season, Hoyer (and McLeod) have moved on to Chicago's North Side, where Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had also relocated.  They reunited with Rizzo via this trade.  At Wrigley Rizzo's power should play very well, whether the wind is blowing out or not.  The Padres also got a very pleasant surprise in Jesus Guzman's play last season, and traded ace Mat Latos for Yonder Alonso (among others), whom we will talk about in a future post.

Not discussed above, but certainly factoring in the decision to ship Rizzo out of town, are the number of players in the Padre farm system who can play first at the major league level.  We've mentioned Guzman and Alonso, but San Diego also has Kyle Blanks who can play the bag.  First base is one position where the Padres have a lot of options and can't give each guy lots of at-bats.  They're also not going to carry 4 guys on the ML bench who can play first - that's just silly.

So the Padres acquired a recently injured potential starting pitcher for the best prospect in their farm system.  This trade may turn out to be a wash, but today it looks pretty lopsided in favor of the Cubs.

Off-Season Acquisition: Micah Owings

With FanFriarFest behind us and pitchers/catchers reporting in less than a week, let's take a look at the Padres off-season acquisitions, working backwards.

More Power Than Mark Kotsay...

On 2 Feb the Padres signed Micah Owings to a one-year deal for a million dollars.  Owings is currently on the 40-man roster.

Owings started 64 games his first three years in the league, but the last two years has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen.  He has pitched better as a reliever, holding hitters to a .220/.338/.369 line and a .262 BABIP (compared to .264/.341/.442, .282 as a starter).  He is relatively tough against right-handed hitters (.712 OPS, 2.31 K/BB ratio), but lefties eat him up (.830 OPS, 1.20 K/BB ratio).

Owings throws a cutter, and it's a weapon.  Last season it had the highest linear weight of any pitch he threw (3.3).  His slider (0.8) was the only other pitch with a positive value.  He gets clubbed when he throws a straight fastball, and he knows it, which is why he only throws it ~3% of the time.

If Owings makes the team I would envision him as a guy who eats innings when the Padres trail or lead by 3 or more runs, and facing a part of the order without lefties or switch hitters.

The intriguing part of this signing is Owings' bat.  Assuming the Padres devise a way to get Carlos Quentin, Jesus Guzman, Yonder Alonso, and Chase Headley in the lineup together on a recurring basis, they project to be thin on the bench.  Check this out:

Career ISO.

• Mark Kotsay:  .132
• Logan Forsythe:  .073
• Chris Denorfia:  .124
• Will Venable:  .161
• Jeff Baker:  .130
• Micah Owings:  .222

There you go.  Why I love statistics, and why small sample sizes will kill you, in one succinct 6-man list.  That list also partially explains why the Padres won't give up on Venable. Lack of at-bats aside (Owings has 203 in his major league career), Micah is a pinch-hitting option late in games based on the big stick he can swing.

Will Owings break camp with the Padres?  That remains to be seen.  Only Street, Gregerson, Thatcher, and Cashner are assured slots in the bullpen on Opening Day.  Frieri, Spence, and Bass have a leg up but I'm guessing they'll be fighting for a roster spot.  If Owings can get hitters out consistently he'll make the club, and his bat can be a wild card for Bud Black to play during games.

Off-Season Acquisition: Jeff Suppan

With FanFest behind us and pitchers/catchers reporting in less than a week, let's take a look at the Padres off-season acquisitions, starting with the most recent.

Suppan in his salad days

On 8 Feb the Padres agreed to terms with right-hander Jeff Suppan on a minor league deal that included an invitation to spring training.  From the Padres Media Relations announcement:

In 2011, the 37-year old right hander went 11-8 with a 4.78 ERA over 28 games (27 starts) for Triple-A Omaha in the Kansas City Royals organization.

meaning Suppan hasn't thrown a pitch to major league hitters since throwing six shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies on October 3, 2010.  It also means Suppan couldn't crack a lousy Royals rotation that gave gave Kyle Davies 13 starts - the same Kyle Davies that owns the worst quality start percentage by any pitcher in the history of the game.

So why bring him to San Diego?

Perhaps two reasons.  One - he is another character guy in the Mark Kotsay mold.  Suppan is a sub-500 career pitcher but he has had a successful career by most standards.  Should he make the big club it will be his 17th season in the majors.  He has pitched in 4 post-seasons including 2 World Series; he was the MVP of the 2006 NLCS while with St Louis.  He's seen it all and would be a good sounding board for the young pitchers on this roster.

The second reason is his ability to spot start.  With Wade LeBlanc gone the Padres don't have anyone with major league experience in 'hot standby' down at AAA.  Should one of their starters get hurt - and with 3/5 of those guys coming back from recent surgery, that's entirely possible - Suppan could step in and start for them.  This becomes especially important if you believe Anthony Bass is not ready to start at the major league level; there would be no need to yank him out of the bullpen to start if you have a guy like Suppan available.

Suppan is a local guy (graduate of Crespi HS in Encino CA) and I believe he still makes his home in SoCal.  I know he has a restaurant in Woodland Hills.  He knows his best years are behind him and this is a chance to keep his hand in the game while playing closer to home than he has been able to over the last decade - even if he ends up spending a lot of time in Tucson.

This is a low-risk, potential reward kind of signing.  Good on the Padres for taking a no-obligation risk on Jeff Suppan.

Counterpoint: Ship McClellan to the Padres

Last week rumors circulated the St Louis Cardinals were looking to ship starter/reliever Kyle McClellan out of town. Baltimore, Arizona, and San Diego were mentioned as potential destinations. The rumors prompted this post on the Cardinal/Royal blog I-70 baseball.

You probably missed it. I didn't because I wrote it.

After it published I got some comments, which is unusual. The comments attacked the premise, which is not unusual for comments on my writing. Apparently I'm controversial. Whatever. I answered in brief in the comments because let's face it, who wants to read a diatribe in the comments section? Nobody. However there was more to say, and since I've suddenly got a few minutes I'll say them here.

Why would the Padres show interest in McClellan? Two reasons I can think of. First, although their starting rotation is set for 2012 2/5 of it is coming off a season-ending injury. Moseley's trick shoulder is his non-throwing shoulder but that injury still cost him the second half of last season, and Richard is coming off arm surgery. Adding McClellan to the bullpen would give the club another guy, along with Anthony Bass, who could spot start if either Moseley's or Richard's rehab suffers a setback.

Second, the team lost Bell, Adams, and Qualls from last year's bullpen, meaning they will turn over a lot of innings to inexperienced guys. Getting Huston Street solidifies the back of the pen and does not force the team to place Brad Brach in the closer's role too early or Luke Gregerson in a role he's not shown aptitude for. The Padres still need some guys; getting McClellan, a proven eighth inning guy, would push Gregerson back to the seventh where he excels.

On the Cardinal side it is hard to see who in the Padres system they would be interested in. The team has stated they don't want to take on salary in any McClellan deal. What does San Diego have to offer?

- Padres have a surplus of OF. So does St Louis.
- Padres have a surplus of 1B. Even though St Louis just lost a first baseman of some note they are set at the position for the future.
- St Louis does not have a need at third, their rotation is high-priced and set, and if they are shopping McClellan they clearly suffer from a surplus of bullpen arms.
- The Cardinals are thin at second and short, but so are the Padres so no trade involving those positions is likely.

What does that leave? Catcher. Which was the subject of my article.

Now it should be noted, again, the I-70 article was written from the Cardinal fan's perspective. The Padres would be crazy to trade either Hedges or Grandal straight-up for McClellan. That would be on par with Ray Lankford for Woody Williams.

And Then There Were Two

Padres had 11 arbitration-eligible players unsigned on Monday.  As of Tuesday, all but 2 are signed.  Only Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley remain.

If the MLB.com depth chart is to believed, both pitchers are expected to be members of the 2012 rotation, along with Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, and Edison Volquez.  With Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc traded, San Diego doesn't have many fall-back options should they not sign either or both. Of the non-roster invitees, only Matt Palmer has major-league starting experience, which amounts to 20 starts over 4 years.  He's also only thrown 49 innings in the majors since the end of the 2009 season.  Not much of a stop-gap option.

Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland are the long-term solutions (as well as possibly Anthony Bass), but the former 2 are at least a year away and the latter one is slotted for more bullpen experience.  Many have argued Bass is not yet ready to be a full-time starter.  As time permits I hope to take a look at that.

If nothing else, the good news is Padres payroll is headed up.  They had the third-lowest payroll on Opening Day 2011 and likely will be in the bottom quarter of all teams this season.  They still have a ways to go to be competitive, but at least the team is trending in the right direction.

Bell to Marlins

Yesterday my second post on the Padres for Baseball Digest went live.  It was a projection on what off-season moves the Padres would make; because San Diego was among the bottom 5 teams in the league offensively in 2011, it seemed logical they would attempt to improve the club at the plate.

Late yesterday Heath Bell reportedly signed a 3-yr, $27M deal with Miami.  Josh Byrnes reportedly stated his priority at the Winter Meetings would be finding someone to pitch the 8th and 9th innings.  So much for my powers of prediction.

One other errata to correct.  In an earlier post I noted that the Padres would not get compensation picks if Bell signed with someone else before 8 December.  In reviewing the rules that is not the case, which makes sense as people who cover baseball for a living say the Padres will get 2 comp picks for Bell.

OK.  Enough of the self-flagellation.  It surprises me that the Padres would make filling in the holes in the back of their bullpen a priority.  They must think they are good to go already offensively.  The model they used successfully in 2010 involved shut-down pitching and just enough offense, to be sure, but even in 2010 their wRC+ as a team was 93, in the bottom half of the league.  Last year it was 89, fifth-worst in baseball. 

It doesn't matter how effective one's pitching staff is.  If the team can't score runs they will not win.  San Diego was one of 3 teams not to score 600 runs last season.  Their final total of 593 was 68 fewer than they scored in 2010.  They have to fix that.

San Diego has been stockpiling arms for a couple of seasons now.  Brad Brach was the closer in AA last season; while doing that in AA is not the same as doing in in the majors, he's not completely green either.  One would think they could find an internal candidate to cover the eighth, or just slide Luke Gregerson into that slot and give the 6th/7th to a less-experienced arm.

I look forward to seeing what Byrnes does next week.  The winter meetings just got a whole lot more interesting.

Bell, Harang Offered Arbitration

First, a bit of self-promotion.  I'm providing a couple of articles for the Baseball Digest website on the Padres.  The first went up on the site Tuesday, and yes - it's yet another 2011 season review.  If you have some time I hope you surf over there and take a read.  You can link to it from here. 

Baseball Digest is the oldest baseball magazine in the US, currently published 6 times a year.  They are trying to expand their on-line presence, which includes content different from what appears in the magazine.  Thanks in advance for reading.

Back to the Padres.  Since the news came out a week ago, on the day before Thanksgiving, I missed it, but it included some of the news we've been waiting for.  San Diego offered arbitration to Heath Bell and Aaron Harang.

The Bell decision has been discussed ad nauseaum both here and on other forums.  Based on how the closer market has initially played out (see the contract offer to Ryan Madson and contract signed by Jonathan Papelbon), Bell will likely make around $10M to pitch in 2012 regardless of where he toils.  For a Padres team likely to not have a payroll north of $50M, his salary represents at least 20% of the total team payroll.  That is a lot - especially considering he will throw less than 80 innings next season. 

From a PR perspective the Padres were forced to offer arbitration to Bell.  He is the biggest name draw currently on the roster.  He has previously stated he wants to pitch here and the Padres can use all the good PR they can get.  From a practical perspective, because of their limited financial assets this team has to build through the draft, and getting the 2 compensation picks for Bell is a must.  Now the team has to hope he both does not sign a free-agent deal with someone else before 9 December and declines arbitration, so they get those picks.

Which brings us to Harang.  Did you know he was a Type B free agent?  He led the Padres in wins but was only worth 0.6 WAR according to Fangraphs (1.9 by Baseball Reference).  This arbitration offer is really interesting to me, but from a social perspective vice a baseball one.  Recall that the Padres held a mutual option on Harang for 2012, at $5M.  Aaron wanted to return but San Diego declined to pick up his option.  Now they've offered him arbitration.

So basically what they're saying is, 'We wouldn't mind having you back, but we think you're worth less than $5M, and what we really want is the draft pick.'  I'd have loved to be a fly-on-the-wall for the conversation between GM Josh Byrnes and Harang's agent.  Can you even have that discussion without insulting the player?  The poetic-justice outcome here would be for Harang to accept arbitration and get a pay bump north of the $5M he was to have received if the option had been honored.

Heath Bell's contract resolution will be more extensively covered, but I for one can't wait to see how Harang's arbitration case plays out.

LeBlanc to the Marlins

The Padres announced yesterday they had traded Wade LeBlanc to Miami for catcher John Baker.

About 2 months ago I talked about doing a series of stories on what I would do as the Padres GM.  As usual those posts never materialized, mostly because I suck at time management.  I may still get to them - I hope to get to them - but one topic is now off the table.  I had intended to discuss trading LeBlanc for a back-up catcher because that's about what I thought San Diego could get for him.  I can't prove it; I never documented it anywhere; but it's true nonetheless.

LeBlanc is one of thousands of guys who have utility in a major league organization but are never going to contribute much on a year-to-year basis.  That sounds like a knock on him, but it really isn't.  Wade LeBlanc's talent level is such that he successfully made it to the Majors and has thrown almost 300 ML innings over parts of 4 seasons.  He's in the top 1% of all people playing baseball.  The Elite.

The problem was his skill set was never going to get him out of the spot starter/possible long man role, nor get him off the shuttle from the big club to AAA.  In 2010, the lone season he spent most of his time in the majors, he made 25 starts, threw 146 innings, and struck out 110.  He also allowed a whopping 24 HR over those 146 innings, or a dinger every six innings.  In 54 career appearances (52 starts) he allowed 44 HR.  It was never a question of if Wade LeBlanc would allow a HR - it was a question of when.

By ERA+ he was below average every year less 2008 (103).  By Fangraphs WAR last season was the first one he didn't post a negative number (Baseball Reference is somewhat more forgiving, crediting him with 0.7/0.3/0.2 WAR each of the last 3 seasons).  With the Padres currently projecting a rotation of Latos/Luebke/Stauffer/Richard/Bass there was no room for him at the inn. (Ed. Note:  Dustin Moseley would also be a candidate for the rotation assuming he re-signs wtih the Padres.)

The Padres get John Baker in return.  He has 104 PA in the majors the last 2 seasons, and missed virtually all of 2011 while recoverng from right elbow surgery.  In 2009 he played in 112 games and posted a .271/.349/.410 line, good enough for a .333 wOBA and 99 wRC+.  He'll be 31 when this season starts.

San Diego had to do something to protect Hundley.  Rob Johnson was released, Kyle Phillips posted an OPS+ of 56 in thirty-six games, and Luis Martinez isn't ready.  As a back-up option, they could do worse.  Baker is also left-handed.  I can't imagine the Padres will platoon Hundley - that would really be dumb - but Baker will give them another left-handed option off the bench besides Mark Kotsay.

Wade LeBlanc will likely not be long remembered.  He was, however, a useful piece of the puzzle for the last 4 seasons, be it as a long reliever, a spot starter, or a regular starter due to injury.  If he becomes a mainstay in the Marlin rotation I would be the first one in line to congratulate him on his success.

Bell Through the Papelbon Glass

You may have heard about Jonathan Papelbon's 4 year/$50,000,058 contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.  You may have also heard the Phillies initially offered incumbent closer Ryan Madson $44M for those same 4 years.  What does this all mean for Heath Bell returning to the Padres?

Using Fangraphs WAR (fWAR), and looking only at the years since Bell became the primary Padres closer, we find that Papelbon was worth 6.2 WAR from 2009-2011 (2.0 in '09, 1.2 in '10, 3.0 in '11).  Over that same period, and looking at only the free-agent closers, we get this list:

• Bell 4.8 WAR
• Madson 4.3 WAR
• Broxton 3.7 WAR
• K-Rod 3.0 WAR
• Nathan 1.9 WAR

If you agree with Dave Cameron's supposition that free agents will be paid approximately $5M per win per year, the Phillies actually paid about the right amount - they're paying for 2.5 wins per year on that contract, and Papelbon has averaged 2.43 wins over the past six years.

It would also mean Bell's 1.6 average WAR over his past 3 seasons is worth about $8M per.  He made $7.5M last season and posted a 0.5 WAR season, so perhaps he would be satisfied with that.  Not likely, based on what the Phillies offered Madson.  Amaro's $44M for 4 years way over-estimated what Madson was worth based on past performance.  It will, however, likely set the market for the men on the above list - more so than what Papelbon got.

What's it all mean for Josh Byrnes and the Padres?  They're screwed.  If they offer arbitration and Bell accepts, he's likely to get between $11M and $12.5M next year, which would be about 25% of the Padres intended payroll for 2012.  Tying up that much of your payroll in a guy who hasn't thrown more than 70 innings since becoming the closer (or ~5% of the total innings Padres pitchers will throw in 2012) is ludicrous.  If they don't offer him arbitration they will lose the two draft picks they would get for Bell (he's a Type A free agent) when he signs somewhere else.

Bell's not coming back.  I believe the Padres will decline to offer him arbitration based on how this free agent market is playing out.

Update:  There's a story about Heath Bell in today's UT.  In the story there's a money quote:

Bell said accepting arbitration is still an option, although it doesn’t seem as strong an option as it was before.

“I have to weigh all my options,” said Bell. “I don’t know what I’m going to do. But it seems like there are going to be some very good options soon. And after everything that has happened with the Padres, I don’t know what is going on.

“They lost the general manager (Hoyer) and the guy (Jason McLeod) responsible for building the future Padres through the draft.”

That sounds like a man who's resigned to leaving.

The story also says the Padres would receive the two comp picks if he signs with another team, even if they don't offer him arbitration.  Can anyone confirm that's true?  Assuming it is, why in the world would the Padres offer Bell arbitration?

Update #2:  From Twitter, arbitration offer must be made in order to get the comp picks if a Type A/B free agent signs with another team.  Caveat - if the FA signs before the arbitration offer deadline (this year 8 Dec), then even if an offer was made the picks are forfeited.  Thanks to @PitchersHit8th, @JonDoble, and @Dathan7 for the assist in clearing this up.

Quick Hits

Couple of things on this holiday Friday:

- Padres unveiled the 2012 uniforms Wednesday night. Lots of reactions out there, ranging from from 'meh' to 'Outrage!' I'm finding myself in the meh camp. Other than a wish they'd left the Friar in an ecumenically correct habit, I can't get fired up about the modification.

Fans build strong attachments to teams when the team is successful over a sustained stretch of time. San Diego has never really had that. The closest they came, in my opinion, was from 1996 to 2007, and they changed their unis during that stretch of success. So changing them now is par for the course. Whatever.

- I have a Veterans Day post up at I-70 Baseball, if you're interested.

If you have today off, enjoy it. And thank a Vet if you run into one.

Headley vs Freese

Flashing a little leather. Even when the ball is ruled foul.

 David Freese is the reigning NL NLCS and World Series MVP.  A lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth has appeared recently regarding the 2007 trade of Freese to St Louis for Jim Edmonds.  Let's separate fact from fiction.  Freese became the Cardinals third baseman in 2009.  Chase Headley became the Padres full-time third baseman the same year.  How do the two men stack up?

Headley came to the majors as the next great Padre power hitter, and he charged out of the gate.  Headley hit HRs in 2 of his first 4 games after being called up for good in 2008.  Since?  He hit 34 HR in his next 517 games.  Freese didn't make it to the majors with as high of a set of expectations as Headley did, but he's hit the ball about as well.  Freese's OPS+ (116) is slightly better than Headley's (105), but their career slash lines are pretty close:

• Freese .298/.354/.429
• Headley .269/.343/.392

Freese hits for a higher average and more power.  Most will assume his power numbers are a product of playing at a more hitter-friendly park, but the reality is Busch is only slightly less of a pitcher's park than Petco.  You read that correctly.  So the edge on pure offense goes to Freese.

Defensively the edge goes to Headley, and it's not particularly close.  In his three years as the everyday starter he has excelled with the glove.  Chase Headley was ranked the #1 defensive third baseman on the Dewan Plus/Minus scale (which can be found at Bill James' website), saving 19 runs.  Last season he was 10th but still credited with saving 2 runs in his 113 games.  Freese, on the other hand, has never had a positive runs saved number.  This year he was -1.  Last year he was -4.  If you watched any of the World Series, you saw Freese get eaten up by several ground balls to third.  He looked slow.  And no, I am not counting the pop up that hit him in the head in Game 6.  Headley in a rout.

Then there's the injury bug.  In his three major league seasons, Freese has yet to play 100 regular season games.  Over the same span Chase Headley has yet to play LESS than 100 regular season games. San Diego suffers from a systemic lack of infield prospects.   Suppose Freese had stayed with the Padres and reached the majors, with Headley having been moved.  The Padres would have had to have someone play almost as many games at third as Freese did.  Could you see Jesus Guzman trying to man the hot corner for the 40% of the season Freese is on the DL?  Better offensively, worse defensively.

Because to his injuries, Freese lags Headley in fWAR.  For the 3 years in question Freese's WAR is 4.4.  Headley's is more than double that (9.1).  It's what we expect given the disparity in playing time and defense.

What is the point of this exercise?  To show that Headley has been a better bet than Freese over the past 3 years in terms of defense and durability.  The Padres have been better off with Headley at third than they would have been had Freese taken over the hot corner.  Those recently bashing Kevin Towers for that late 2007 trade have lost sight of this fact.

Padres beat the Cardinals

Apologies for the hiatus.  Baseball's playoffs got in the way.

This won't be a long post.  Just a quick explanation of what's going on that I can't pack into 140 characters.  Many/most of you probably know I have two blogs that I author:  this one, and Stan Musial's Stance, which as the name implies focuses on the Cardinals.  As much as I would have liked to keep both going, it became increasingly difficult to put up well-thought out commentary on both sites.

Well as well-thought out commentary as you're ever likely to get from me.

Once the Cardinals completed their exhilarating run to the 2011 championship, I took a hard look at where I should focus my attention and the Padres won out.  This area is my home now, I see significantly more Padres games on a yearly basis than Cardinal contests, and I'm immersed in Padres source material from the SDUT and XX1090 (as well as my fellow Padres bloggers).

This may be the first time the Padres have beaten out the Cardinals at anything.

So here we go.  There are a lot of good Padres blogs out there and I hope you add this one to your rotation of weekly reads.  I will be posting as my schedule allows but promise at least 2 posts per week.  The occasional Cardinal-themed post may appear - hopefully that won't put you off too much - but the majority of topics will be Padres commentary and SABR-focused articles on the team.

Thanks in advance for reading.   Looking forward to interacting with you.

Jed Hoyer to Cubs: My Two Cents

Rumors have been floating for two weeks that Theo Epstein will leave Boston and become a Senior VP with the Chicago Cubs.  I could not care less about that.

The last few days have seen the start of, and intensifying reporting on, rumors Jed Hoyer or Josh Byrnes are going to Chicago as GM under Theo. Today it seems all but a done deal that Hoyer is gone.  I care a little more about that.

The San Diego Padres currently suffer from a lack of offensive talent on the major league roster.  The reasons why can be distilled into three parts - the trade of Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, the low team payroll, and a farm system bereft of offensive talent.  The Gonzo trade and the low payroll go hand-in-hand IMHO - ownership has artifically restricted the size of the payroll, and decided it did not want to pay Adrian what he was worth.

The other problem is systemic and needed to be fixed anyway for the long-term viability of the franchise.  One of Boston's claims to fame has been their ability to identify, develop, and promote prospects into contributing members of the Red Sox.  The best two examples of that success are Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.  Since Hoyer worked in the front office that did that drafting, it made a certain amount of sense to hire someone with a strong player development background.

To that end he brought Jason McLeod with him from Boston and significantly expanded the player development department.  San Diego still has a bottom-half farm system but is at least working in the right direction.  This is a good thing.

Now Hoyer is reportedly leaving to go to Chicago.  Maybe he chafed under the small payroll he had to work with in San Diego.  Maybe Josh Byrnes' relationship with Moorad made things awkward in the Padre front office.  We don't know, and probably won't know.  What we should care about is that the Padres continue to aggressively draft premium talent and get them to the major league roster.  What we should also care about is that McLeod stays in the San Diego front office.  What we should also care about is that Moorad takes the austerity measure handcuffs off the team payroll and allow it to grow.  Not to a number that starts with a "5", but something more reasonable, like a "7" or "8".
  
Hoyer, Byrnes, Kevin Towers, Daffy Duck, Ivan Drago, Optimus Prime, Mel Zeb, me, you ... it doesn't matter who the Padres GM is.  It does matter that the payroll budget get bigger.  And, it really matters the organization continue to draft good offensive prospects and get those guys to the majors.

I don't care that Hoyer's leaving.  I will care if McLeod follows.

UPDATE:  This story has gained all sorts of momentum.

Item:  The Cubs asked for Josh Byrnes first but Padres said no.
Item:  Hoyer offered to stay in San Diego for a 5-year extension and was told no.  Honestly this one is funny to me.  It would appear Hoyer tried to leverage his impending departure into a pay raise.  A little corporate blackmail, perhaps.
Item:  Jason McLeod is also almost out the door.

All that can be found in this story at ESPN.

It pisses me off.  I appreciate the loyalty Moorad is showing Byrnes, but these developments piss me off.  He's letting the architect of the Padres minor league revival walk.  He's letting a GM with a plan walk.  And for what, in return?  Nothing.

I don't care that Ricketts and Moorad are friends.  Owning a baseball team is like being a sovereign country.  Owners don't have friends - they have INTERESTS.  It should be in the INTEREST of Moorad and the Padres ownership to build and bring a championship to San Diego.  It is not in the INTEREST of the San Diego Padres to let two bright young minds, who are under contract, leave without compensation.

Moorad traded away the best position player San Diego had since Tony Gwynn retired.  Now he allows the core of his front office to walk away.  If he's trying to build a fan base that's the wrong way to go about doing it.  I feel for the Padres ticket sales staff - how do you sell this product?  Related, get ready for hordes of visiting team fans to descend on the ballpark next year - they may be the only ones who go in large numbers.

Assuming, of course, YOU go.

BBA Topic - Walter Johnson Award

After each regular season, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance votes on the best manager, rookie, relief pitcher, starting pitcher, and most valuable player in each league.  Today we discuss the best starting pitcher - aptly named the Walter Johnson Award.

The BBA ballot requires three names.  For the National League, the three names are easy.  The hard part is deciding in what order they should fall.  Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, and Cliff Lee were the best three pitchers in the National League this season, and they threw virtually the same number of innings (Halladay 233 2/3, Kershaw 233 1/3, Lee 232 2/3), so one can compare their numbers without applying any correction factor.

So let's compare them.  Here are their season numbers, per Fangraphs.

I left their W/L/WAR numbers off deliberately.  Innings Pitched we've already discussed.  Wins/Losses have become less relevant to measuring a pitcher's worth in the relief pitcher era, and WAR?  Well, WAR has become too simple an answer for me (that's a topic best left to a future post).

So what do we have?  Halladay issued the fewest walks, allowed the least number of HRs, got the most groundballs, and had the best Fielding Independent Percentage.  Kershaw struck out the most per nine innings, had the lowest percentage of balls in play turn into hits, and the lowest Earned Run Average.  Lee stranded more runners then either two, and had the lowest Expected Fielding Independent Percentage.

Doesn't really help, does it?

Let's try again.  The fact that Kershaw has the lowest ground ball rate (so conversely, the highest fly ball rate) of the three matches his lowest BABIP of the three.  Fly ball pitchers tend to have a lower BABIP.  Using that logic, it would explain why Halladay's BABIP is slightly higher than Lee's.

Some folks have argued part of Kershaw's success is based on his home ballpark.  Dodger Stadium is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Citizen's Bank is a pitcher-neutral one.  Kershaw giving up fewer HR than Lee can be explained by the ballpark factor, but Halladay gave up fewer than either while pitching in the same home ballpark Lee pitches in.

Lee's strikeouts per nine, strand rate, and expected FIP are better than Halladay's.  Halladay, however, has fewer walks, HR, a lower ERA and FIP than Lee.  I think ultimately that places Halladay ahead of Lee.  Kershaw has a higher walk rate than Lee, but in the other categories (K/9, HR allowed, ERA, FIP) he's better.

Cliff Lee becomes the #3 NL pitcher.

How to split Kershaw and Halladay is tough - very tough.  They are virtually even everywhere, and the one area where they do differ (HR's allowed) I believe has more to do with Halladay being a ground ball pitcher in a park where fly balls fly out than in any real difference in quality between the two pitchers.  Roy Halladay has been consistently brilliant for years, and is the reigning Walter Johnson Award Winner.  Clayton Kershaw is only 23 years old and may just be starting to realize his enormous potential.

I've tried to be objective.  Let's be arbitrary.  Halladay had fewer bad days than Kershaw did.  Roy Halladay had only one 2011 start in which he gave up more than 5 ER. Kershaw had four.  Halladay was more consistently brilliant than Kershaw.  We'll make that the straw that broke the camel's back.

The Padres Trail 2011 Walter Johnson Award Ballot:

1. Roy Halladay
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Cliff Lee

As always, thanks for reading and your comments are welcome.

UPDATE 10/22: I neglected to make the ballot 5 deep, which is the BBA requirement.  So, hurriedly, I've added these two names:

• 4.  Ian Kennedy
• 5.  Jair Jurrjens

 Kennedy pitched extremely well for the Arizona Diamondbacks throughout the 2011 season, and tied for the league lead in wins (21).  Jurrjens had a fantastic first half of the season before getting hurt and missing all of September.  If I've missed someone deserving, post it in the comments.

Team Leaders

Ryan Ludwick does not exist.  He never existed.

If you go to the Padres official website, about half-way down you'll find a section labeled '2011 team leaders'.  It lists Nick Hundley, Cameron Maybin, and Will Venable as the team HR leaders with 9 each.  It also shows Jesus Guzman, Chase Headley, and Venable as the team RBI leaders with 44 each.

Ryan Ludwick's 11 HR and 64 RBI as a Padre are conveniently forgotten.  For some reason this really offends me.  It's as if the team does not want to acknowledge his contributions to the 2011 effort.

I got into a psuedo-argument about this on Twitter last night.  The reasons given for why he's not listed included 'he was traded' and 'its more about who's on the current roster'.  Fine.  Then don't label that section on the website '2011 Team Leaders'.  Call it something else - Active Padres Leaders, or Current Roster Leaders, or The Best We've Got Left As The Season Ended.

Ludwick's stats didn't cease to count just because he was traded to Pittsburgh 15 minutes before the trade deadline.  He was still the most productive Padre in these two areas during the 2011 season.  It's ridiculous to pretend he wasn't.  Besides, what good does it do to present the data in this way?  Ludwick is still listed on the sortable stats page as a Padre (as he should be), and if one sorts by HR or RBI guess who's name sits at the top of the list.  Go to the 2011 San Diego Padres team page on Baseball Reference, and guess who's still listed there?  Ludwick!  Of course B-Ref has him as the everyday LF, but that's because he played more games in LF than any other Padre in 2011, which is how B-Ref organizes their data.

So who are we trying to fool here - the fans?  That's insulting to all fans everywhere.

There are other ways to sell the current roster.  Highlight Maybin's success in 2011.  Talk about how Hundley recovered from his first half injuries to become a force at the plate after the All-Star Break.  Mention Anthony Bass' development, and how (according to what I've read) he's continuing to progress in the Arizona Fall League.  Hype Cory Spangenberg.

Just don't tell me the team leaders in HR and RBI were guys who fell 2 HR and 20 RBI short of a player that left via a team decision 7/31.

In case you think I'm being unreasonable (and you might), consider this.  In 1990 Willie McGee was traded, at the end of August, from St Louis to Oakland.  At the time he led the NL in batting average (.335).  Even though he spent the last month of the season in the other league, he had accrued enough at bats to qualify for the NL batting title.  At seasons end, no other NL hitter had caught him, so McGee won the NL batting title ... despite no longer playing in the league. 

If Major League Baseball, that stodgy organization, could recognize McGee for his performance in the NL before he was traded, why can't the Padres do the same thing with their '2011 team leaders'?  Who are they trying to kid.

Pretending Ludwick's numbers don't qualify as a team leader because he was dealt at the trade deadline is dishonest.  The Padres are wrong to present the 2011 team leader stats without including him.

BBA Topic - Connie Mack Award

Each year, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance member chapters vote on their post-season awards.  Some awards are similar to those voted on by the BBWAA, and some are unique.  The Connie Mack award is given to each league's top manager.

The San Diego Chapter gets two votes for each category. You can read Left Coast Bias' selections here.  Mine are below.

Manager of the Year is tough, because it seems the odds-on favorite for the award typically manages a team widely expected to suck before the season started.  Which then means the award goes to the team that did the best job proving the prognosticators wrong.  I don't have a snappy, simple solution for fixing that; I just point it out.

With that said, whom to vote for?  I need to narrow down the field, so let's make it easy - I'll eliminate all teams that finished below .500 this season.  The only team I slightly regret dropping from consideration this way is Pittsburgh.  Clint Hurdle did a fantastic job (or was the NL Central just that mediocre) keeping them in contention until the end of July; but after that the Pirates collapsed, finishing 18 games under.  So it's a slight regret.

That leaves Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, St Louis, Arizona, San Francisco, and Los Angeles as the contenders.  Atlanta is out; you blow a 9.5 game lead, you get no votes as the league's best manager.  San Francisco gets dropped; the Giants faded badly after the trade deadline.  That takes us to five.  Five is a manageable number.

The Padres Trail ballot for Connie Mack is:

1. Kirk Gibson, Diamondbacks - Yeah, I'm in the 'vote for the team that most exceeded pre-season expectations' category.  Gibson took a Diamondbacks team widely expected to challenge the Padres for NL West basement occupancy and instead led them to the NL West Title.  Granted, most of the rebirth in Arizona is the handiwork of several GMs, including Kevin Towers' rebuild of the bullpen.  However the Diamondbacks have had one of the more talented rosters in the league for several years, and never played to their talent.  Gibson got that talent to shine.
2. Charlie Manuel, Phillies - The amount of pressure placed on the manager of a team widely expected to be the best in the league is immense.  Many buckle under it.  Manuel led his team to the best record in the league.
3. Tony LaRussa, Cardinals - He lost his best starting pitcher in spring training, and his early bullpen was a mess.  And yet, he found a way to motivate his team and get them into the post-season. 
4. Ron Roenicke, Brewers - Another manager with the weight of expectations.  Prince Fielder is widely expected to play somewhere else next year, so the Brewer management went all in for this season, and brought in a new manager to lead the troops.  Additionally, he lost one of the off-season prizes, Zack Grienke, for 6 weeks due to injury.  A torrid August secured the NL Central for Milwaukee.
5. Don Mattingly, Dodgers - The Dodger organization is a mess.  Everyone knows about the McCourt scandal and legal death match with MLB.  All that drama affected the major league team. It took them about 4 months to successfully deal with it, but they finally got it together, closing with a 41-28 kick and getting into third in the NL West.

Game Reflections - #162 vs Cubs

It's been an emotional roller-coaster of a last 24 hours.  Three ridiculously tense elimination games stretched the drama out for almost 3 hours, and then today Geoff Young announces he's hanging them up. 

What will tomorrow bring?

We have one more Game Reflection to go, as I was at last night's game.  Then, back to the GM series (no really - they are going to happen; it's not just a tease).  Padres won last night 9-2.

-  Cameron Maybin stole his 40th base last night, a third inning swipe of third with two out.  He became the ninth Padre to steal at least that many and the first Padre to do so since Dave Roberts in 2006.  The milestone was important to him and congratulations are appropriate for acheiving it.  In terms of pure baseball, however, there was no reason to steal that bag.  With two out, he would have been running on any pitch hit into play, and with his speed, he would have scored easily from second on a base hit to the outfield.  I guess these are the things that happen during the last game of the season.

- Chase Headley's strikeout to end the third, and Will Venable's strikeout for the second out of the eighth, should be credited to home plate umpire Mark Ripperger.  Why? Because the 3-1 pitch Ripperger called a strike was a ball.  It was off the plate outside, and had been called a ball pretty consistently by Ripperger to that point.  Headley swung and missed a 3-2 pitch in the same spot (also a ball).  Same thing happened to Will Venable on a 3-0 pitch.  He swung at a 3-2 pitch that was ball because the same pitch was a strike 3-0.  When people get irritated by inconsistent umpiring, this is what they're talking about.

- The fourth inning ended with a caught stealing of home, but it wasn't a true caught stealing of home.  Wade LeBlanc picked off Cub speedster Tony Campana with the third consecutive throw over.  During that rundown, Lou Montanez broke for the plate, and the Padres tagged him out.  I love rundowns, because you get cool sequences of numbers when the out is recorded.  This play went 1-3-6-2-5-3.

- Ryan Dempster was cruising right along until he walked LeBlanc on 5 pitches.  Then the wheels came off.  Double to Maybin, walk to Venable, 3-Run shot to Nick Hundley.  The 3-2 pitch Hundley hit out was RIGHT down the middle; I mean, it couldn't have been set on a tee in a more advantageous hitting position.  Dempster wobbled through the 4th, although to be fair his defense betrayed him, kicking a sure double-play ball; recovered for a strong fifth, then started getting tagged in the sixth.  I was very surprised Cub manager Mike Quade left him in there for 119 pitches.

- Venable ended the drama in this game with a Grand Slam in the sixth, Dempster's last pitch.  It was the only grand slam hit by the Padres this year at Petco, and brings us to an interesting stat.  San Diego (by my count) has hit 12 home grand slams since Petco Park opened in 2004 (they're buried in this list).  That's not what's interesting, here is what is:  last night marked only the second time since Petco opened that the home team has hit a 3-R HR and a grand slam in the same game. The other time?  September 17, 2005, the night the first grand slam was hit at Petco by a Padre.  Ramon Hernandez hit the 3-run shot and Khalil Greene the slam.

Once Venable's HR left the ballpark the scoreboard watching started in earnest.  I don't have to explain what that was like, as it's all over the internet today.  An incredible night of baseball.  The funniest thing about it to me is the sequence of games.  St Louis/Houston was the last of the 4 wild card impact games to start and the first one to finish, thanks to Chris Carpenter's 11-strikeout complete game.  Philadelphia/Atlanta, Boston/Baltimore, and New York/Tampa Bay all ended within 25 minutes of each other, or, in different units of measure, while I was walking across the parking lot, while I was on the freeway headed home, and while I was turning onto my street.  If the playoffs bring half that much tension to the table, it will be an exciting 2011 post-season.

We can only hope.

Short Term Gain, Long Term Loss

Amazingly, the Scott and BR show this morning did not start off with a Chargers discussion.  They actually talked a little baseball.  What, you might wonder?  San Diego's loss last night to Chicago?  The race for second best record in the NL?  The now impossible to predict outcome in both Wild Card races?

No.  They talked about Channel 4 and the San Diego Padres broadcast rights.

Well, OK, that is a bit of a local story.  As you probably know, Cox Communications and Channel 4 will not be carrying Padres games in 2012.  Nor formal announcement has yet been made, but Scott rightly called it the 'worst kept secret in San Diego'.  Earlier this year Channel 4 employees were notified they would likely not be brought back for 2012.

On the one hand I agree with the XX 1090 morning talent.  It is sad to see Channel 4 lose the Padres.  They have done a professional job in presenting the Padres; they are not losing the contract due to a lack of competence.  Besides, who wishes job loss on anyone?  On the other hand, this turn of events is ultimately not solely the Padres fault; this decision today is the product of a business decision Cox made years ago, to not allow Padres games to be broadcast locally on anything but cable.

One of the biggest problems the San Diego Padres face in this market is how to build brand loyalty.  This team has had some success, but over their entire history they have usually been a bad team playing bad baseball.  Obviously brand loyalty starts there.  It has been said on multiple occasions San Diego is restricted by who their local fan base can be, hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean to the West, the Mojave Desert to the East, Mexico to the South, and Los Angeles Baseball to the North.  Complicating that, their three closest rivals (in terms of Geography) have all won a World Series; two of them have won one this millenium.  The other, the Dodgers, has been an institution in Southern California for better than 50 years, with multiple World Series titles, players making multiple appearances on TV, Vin Scully, and Fernandomania.

Having an artifical constraint like the broadcast rights has made the brand loyalty-building that much tougher, specifically hamstringing efforts in the San Diego Metro/San Diego County area.  The Padres could not reach all the households they should be able to reach based on a business decision Cox made.  I do not know and would be interested to find out if that exclusivity was written into the broadcast rights contract signed by Cox and the Padres.  I suspect it was, which would explain why the Padres could not influence Cox to amend their stance.  Once it was raised as an issue Cox should have seen this coming.

Of course it's moot now.  Fox will get the Padres for the next 15-20 years; they are building a channel specifically to cover the Padres; they will allow it to be received via cable or satellite.

I hope Cox enjoyed their short term gains and exclusive rights to the Padres.  In the name of that short-term gain they slit their own throat.  Whether or not the station continues to exist after this season remains to be seen.  When Fox San Diego stands up, it would be nice to see many familiar faces from the past few years doing Padre broadcasts again.

Game Reflections - #157 vs Dodgers

Yeah a little behind on the GM series.  We'll get back to that.  Tonight I sat through a 2 hour 43 minute 2-0 game.  There should be a law against games in which 8 runners are stranded and 2 runs scored cannot last more than 2 hours 15 minutes.

Anyway, some random thoughts.

- Why in the world did Anthony Rizzo not start this game?  Rizzo has actually had the most success against lefthanded starters (.194 batting average).  Yeah that's still below the Mendoza Line, but still.  One would think a guy with his long swing would match up pretty well against a guy who throws a lot of junk.  Besides, Rizzo has demonstrated better plate discipline than Alberto Gonzalez has this season.

- Gonzalez looked absolutely flummoxed up there against Ted Lilly.  After he looked at two curve balls and swung at a pitch in the dirt for strike 3 in the second inning, all I could think of was Pedro Cerrano.  He popped to first and tapped out weakly to Lilly in his other 2 ABs versus the Dodger lefty.

- Dodgers had 2 extra base hits.  Both of them came around to score.  Padres were oh-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

- Did you know Matt Kemp has a shot at the triple crown?  I didn't.  After his 426' HR to the deepest part of Petco, he is tied for the league lead in HR, leads the league in RBI, and trails Ryan Braun/Jose Reyes in AVG by .002.  Sabermetrics has taken a lot of the luster out of 2/3 of those statistics, but if he does something no NL hitter has done in 74 years?  That's pretty special.

- Wade LeBlanc dominated as he has not dominated since pitching against the Phillies way back in May.  He struck out 10, including the side looking in the seventh following Kemp's HR.  The high strikeout total may have been helped by all the AAA hitters in the Dodger lineup...

- Three of the first 5 Dodger hitters tried to bunt. Only one of those was a sacrifice attempt to move a runner over.  Weird.

- I didn't see the balk play clearly, but I will say it is unusual in my experience for the home plate umpire to call a balk, unless it is because the pitcher flinched, i.e., started then stopped his windup.  LeBlanc didn't flinch.  Neither the second nor first base umpires thought it was a balk, and first base umpire Todd Tichenor had the best angle.

- Speaking of Angel Hernandez, Friday's home plate umpire, his strike zone was ridiculous and inconsistent.  It looked to me some of his inconsistency on outside pitches derived directly from how the catcher caught the ball.  If the catcher set up off the outside corner and the pitcher hit his glove, even if it was a ball, they generally got the strike call.  If the catcher set up somewhere else and the pitch missed the target (like for example, he sets up inside and the pitch is outside so he has to reach across to catch it), even if the pitch was a strike Hernandez called it a ball.

Fully 24 of the 54 total outs were by strikeout.  That's 45% of all the outs in this game.  Of those, a third were looking.  Ted Lilly strikes out about 7 hitters per 9 innings.  He did that tonight in 6 and 1/3.Wade LeBlanc strikes out about 5 per 9.  Tonight he struck out 10 in 7.  Methinks an inconsistent strike zone had a lot to do with that.


- Aaron Cunningham made a bad baserunning play with one out in the seventh, trying to advance to third on a ground ball to third.  Ultimately it didn't matter - Jeremy Hermida walked, so the Padres had runners on first and second with two out anyway - but it was still a bonehead play.  He should have waited until Dodger 3B Justin Sellers went to first before taking off for third.

Padres need to win all their remaining games to avoid losing 90 this season.  No odds will be given on that happening.

Well, What WOULD You Do?

During one of my recent drives home, the Coach John Kentera started asking the audience, "What would you do if you were the Padres GM?", hoping to engender discussion.

State laws and my lack of a head set on that particular afternoon prevented a call-in, but as Dispicable Me lead 'villian' Gru might say, LIGHT .... BULB!

This Padres club will lose 90 games and is headed for the long off-season.  Why not talk about how to improve next year's team?  Over the next several posts, I'll explore that.

To set the battlespace for debate, let's look at Padre contractural obligations for 2012.  It's a pretty short list.  Currently the Padres have only two players under contract for next year:  Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett.  They will each make $5.5M in 2012.  Now naturally the rest of the roster is not nearly that simple.

San Diego holds a club option for Chad Qualls ($6M), and a mutual option for 2012 with Brad Hawpe ($6M) and Aaron Harang ($5M).  There's no way Hawpe returns for 2012.  GM Jed Hoyer will decline the option, pay the $1M buyout, and cut his losses.  Not only has Hawpe been hurt most of the year, but San Diego has a lot of guys who can play first.  Qualls might return - he's pitched fairly well out of the Padres bullpen - but I wonder if the club will pick up his $6M.  Can you imagine a world where a middle reliever is the highest paid player on the roster?  That could happen if Qualls returns.  Aaron Harang might return as well, and would be a bargain for $5M.  Harang has pitched very well this year.

The big Free Agent question San Diego has is Heath Bell.  Only Heath Bell has an inkling on how that will play out.  The Padres would be crazy not to offer him arbitration, unless they know he'll accept arbitration, in which case they'd be crazy to offer him arbitration.  What to do, what to do....

Jeremy Hermida will also be a free agent at the end of the year (5 years service time) but his contract demands won't be very high given the amount of time he's spent in the minor leagues lately.  San Diego can manage that if they decide to retain him.  The rest of the roster is either arbitration eligible or not quite ready for arbitration.

The Arbitration Eligibles:

• Pat Neshek (Year 3)
• Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Chris Denorfia, Alberto Gonzalez (Year 2)
• Clayton Richard, Luke Gregerson, Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Rob Johnson, Ernesto Frieri, Jeff Fulchino (Year 1)

The not-yet eligibles:

• Mat Latos, Cameron Maybin, Kyle Blanks, Cory Luebke, Wade LeBlanc, Anthony Bass, Josh Spence, Andrew Carpenter, Brad Brach, Aaron Cunningham, James Darnell, Logan Forsythe, Andy Parrino, Evan Scribner, Blake Tekotte.

There has been a lot of ink spilled about the size of the Padres payroll, whether or not it will start with a 3, 4, or 5. With the players they have under contract, San Diego could certainly field a team whose payroll still sits in the mid-to-upper 40s.  Which would pretty much guarantee another season groping for runs.

It is a cost-effective roster at the moment.  But what this team really, REALLY needs is a big bat in the lineup.  We'll explore that and other questions over the next several days.