Moping and the LCS

With the off-season in it's third full week, there's little to do on the San Diego front besides wait for Chris Young to be released, and the start of the Padres vs Adrian Gonzalez contract squabbling that will end with Gonzo making $22M a year in Boston.

So we're left with watching the LCS series on Fox and TBS.  After 5 played games, I have some thoughts.

• To this point Texas is a much better team than New York.  Think about this:  the Rangers are one bad seven hitter sequence away from leading this series 3-0. I didn't think they'd be up 2-1 at this point, and I suspect most folks didn't either.
• It's funny to see the Yankee series relegated to TBS.  And satisfying too; at least now the country will be treated to some of the MLB's other good teams.
• This Phillies/Giants series is going seven.  Neither team is hitting much right now anyway, and the pitching both have has been dominant.  I just don't see either team pulling away, unless the Giants start to activate and start Barry Zito.
• You think Cody Ross is going to see any more inside fastballs this series?
• The Yankees series hopes rest on AJ Burnett's right arm.  Good luck, New York.  Although I say that knowing Burnett will probably throw a 2-hitter over 7 innings tonight.

I'll probably do a Podcast again Thursday.  I'll have an update here Thursday AM either way.

We Pause Briefly to Bash the Chargers

Rams 20, Chargers 17.  I am a Ram fan from way back, and sit in my Jack Youngblood jersey as I type this.

So HAH!  San Diego has never beaten the Rams.  Ever.

Oh and those of you scratching your head on how the Chargers could lose to a team that was 1-15 last year, and lost 44-6 to Detroit last week?  Here's why.  The Chargers cannot win on the road, and aren't as good as their rankings.  They aren't losing to inferior teams anymore - they are losing to teams as good as they are. 

Harsh?  Yep.  But consider:

• Lose once to a bad team (KC) it's a fluke.
• Twice (SEA) it's coincidence. 
• Thrice (OAK) it's a trend.
• Four times (STL) you are what you are.

No one will confuse those four teams with Super Bowl contenders.  The Chargers shouldn't be considered a contender either.

How would the Padres have done?

Day 1 of the playoffs is in the books.  Philadelphia's Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds 4-0.  Since both those teams could have been Padres opponents, I thought:  How would the Padres have done?

1.  Would Halladay have no-hit San Diego?  With the stuff he had last night, Roy Halladay would have no-hit the '27 Yankees.  More to the point, here are the Reds and Padres relative NL rankings in various hitting categories:

• Average:  Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
• OBP:  Reds (2nd), Padres (13th)
• Slugging:   Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
• ISO:  Reds (2nd), Padres (15th)
• And of course, wOBA Reds (1st), Padres (15th).

So if Roy Halladay could no-hit the Reds last night, who were in the top 2 in most offensive categories (including nose hair), the Padres would have gotten clobbered.  And probably had a perfect game thrown at them.  Can't you see Ryan Ludwick flailing wildly at all those 'palm balls' Halladay flicked up there?

2.  Would the Padres have no-hit Cincinnati?  A little more difficult to answer.  The game would have been here, so that's an advantage for the Padre starter.  Who would have been the Padre starter?  Chris Young would have pitched the Monday play-in game, so Bud Black's options were Jon Garland on extra rest or Clayton Richard on full rest (let's eliminate Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos from consideration; no way they start Game 1 on short rest).

• Neither Garland nor Richard have thrown a no-hitter in their careers to date.
• Garland has 2 post-season starts; he allowed 4 ER in 16 IP (ERA:  2.25) as a White Sox in 2005.  Richard has never started a post-season game.
• The Reds hit .275/.335/.437 against RHP and .265/.346/.434 against LHP.  That's known as a wash.  No advantage there.
• The Padres lost both of Richard's starts against Cincinnati this season.  The Padres were 4-2 against Cincinnati overall.  Garland's teams are 2-2 in his career when he started against the Reds.

So probably Garland.  Garland would have 6 days rest between starts (last start 30 Sept).  He is 14-16 career with a 4.86 ERA when starting on that much rest.  He did throw a 4-hitter at the Cubs in that 30 Sept start, but it was a wet cold day in San Diego, which probably helped him out.  If pinned into a corner, I'd say no, the Padres don't no-hit Cincinnati.

Of course, it doesn't matter.  San Diego lost last Sunday.  Which meant I had to do this today.

That's A Wrap

It seemed too much to ask, for the Phillies to take a third game from Atlanta, and for the Padres to sweep San Francisco.  Turned out, it was.

The Phillies third and fourth stringers put up a pretty valiant effort, trimming a 6-run deficit to 1 with two out in the eighth, but it was too much to overcome.  It didn't matter, because the Padres controlled their own destiny on this day.  Win and you move on.  Lose and you go home.

Losing 3-0 in San Francisco isn't shameful. What will haunt these Padres, other than the 10-game losing streak, is all the men they left on base Sunday.  Ludwick striking out in the second with two on and two out.  Torrealba's double play grounder after the first two men reached to start the sixth.  Tejada striking out with two on and two out in the seventh.  Latos pitched well enough - 2 runs allowed should not be enough to kill a team - but on this day it was.

The Padres have some major decisions to make this off-season.  No one wants to see a 90-win team dismantled, but there's a very real possibility that might happen (to wit:  Chris Young, Jon Garland, and Gonzo account for $20.75 mil in payroll if the Padres pick up all their options).  Then there's the question of Tejada and Ludwick - do they return for 2011?  Does Heath Bell come back?  What of Kyle Blanks?  And so on.

We will go into those questions over the coming weeks.

For now, revel in the season that was.  Heck, I thought 82-80 and third place was optimistic as a prediction.  They exceeded that, kept us riveted all season, and fell just short.  It was a lot of fun, even if the final result is not one we wanted, and I for one can't wait for 2011.

That's Two

Headaches felled your correspondent this afternoon, meaning I didn't watch the game.  So, at 4pm, I groggily reached for my iTouch.  Initially I read the score SFO 4, SDG 2.  Oh, well - at least we tried.

Then I realized it was San Diego that had won 4-2.  And, Philadelphia was beating Atlanta 5-0 (they would eventually win 7-0).  Holy cow.

Ryan Ludwick's home run in the second inning Friday night might be the biggest hit of the season for San Diego.  It snapped their scoreless inning funk at 13, gave them the early lead, and I think both relaxed the Padres and put pressure on the Giants.  Who would have thunk that, given how much Ludwick has struggled since the trade.

Tim Stauffer was great.  But a one hitter through six?  Unbelieveable.  Padres scored enough early and held on.  Kudos to Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams, and Heath Bell for slamming the door.  Well, partial credit goes to Jose Guillen for swinging aggressively and rolling into the 6-3 DP to end it.

I thought after the game "Gee, I think Gregerson, Adams, and Bell have pitched 3 consecutive games.  Will they be available Sunday?"  Actually it's more than that - Adams has worked in five straight games, Bell and Gregerson 4.  This article in the U-T discusses the bullpen.  Here's the money quote from Gregerson:

"I told [Darrel Ackerfelds] and Bud (Black) to stop asking me how I feel," said Gregerson. "Let's go. We're trying to win here. It's all hands on deck."

Looks like they will pitch Sunday if called upon.  I love it.  Gregerson's outlook matches mine - they've got all winter to rest if they don't win tomorrow.

San Diego's odds of making the playoffs stood at 7.5% headed into Friday night.  Now they stand at 52.3%. Wouldn't you know it, the season will come down to Mat Latos and Jonathan 'Big Mouth' Sanchez.  How appropriate.  Never going to look back, Big Mouth, once you pass the Padres?  Look in the rearview mirror.

There is no pressure at all tomorrow on the Padres.  It's all on the Giants.  The only thing going for SF right now is they will be part of a one-game playoff they end up tied with someone else.  San Diego can't say that, and neither can Atlanta.  If either team loses while the other wins, the loser is out.  Should make for compelling baseball.

Tear yourself away from the Charger game on your computer and watch the Padres/Giants.  Screw the Chargers.  They suck for the first 1/4 of the season anyway.

That's One

How big was that double play in the ninth?  Thank you Freddy Sanchez.

Padres get it done.  Now they can focus on tomorrow's game.  Philadelphia routed Atlanta, so the Padres gain ground in both races.

Nice to see Ryan Ludwick packed his big bat for this series, even if he struck out 3 times following his second inning HR.  Nice to see the Padres jump all over Matt Cain early to take the crowd out of the game for most of it; they re-appeared in the sixth when San Fran scored 3 to get back in the game, but we were into the strength of our bullpen by that point.

Adrian Gonzalez had a rare bad game with the glove, but I can live with that, especially considering he tattooed a ball for the 3-run HR in the fourth.  Didn't hurt.  Meant Bell had to face the heart of the Giant order in the ninth, but Sanchez sucked the wind out of that inning.

Some noise was made pre-game about Giant manager Bruce Bochy moving Cain up to Friday so they could clinch and get it over with.  Perhaps there was another reason:

1. Matt Cain 2010 splits:
1. Day Games - 73.1 IP, 7 HR, 3-4, 3.31 ERA
2. Night Games - 146 IP, 12 HR, 10-6, 2.77 ERA
2. Barry Zito 2010 splits:
1. Day Games - 43 IP, 6 HR, 2-2, 3.77 ERA
2. Night Games - 153.1 IP, 14 HR, 7-11, 4.17 ERA

Cain was definitely better at night than Zito, and Saturday's game is a day tilt.  I'm sure that figured into his reasoning.

Padre prospects for making the playoffs are noticeably brighter now than they were 24 hours ago.  This team can beat Zito.  Then it's a one-game playoff against 'Big Mouth' Sanchez for all the marbles.  Should Philly sweep Atlanta, and the Padres pull off the improbable, there is no playoff, San Diego wins the division, and San Francisco draws Philly in the NLDS.

Wouldn't that be sweet.

Wet, Gloomy Day at Petco

Work permitted, so I headed down to Petco for yesterday's regular season finale.

Initially weather did not cooperate:







I've been going to Padres games upwards of 20 years, and that's the first time I can remember seeing the tarp on the field.  Exciting.  Seats were soaked, so I skulked with my beer at the top of our section awaiting the wife's arrival.  Which was delayed, because she had inadvertently left her ticket and the parking pass at home (I took the trolley down from work). 

She didn't have to head home, as we can get a reprinted ticket as season ticket holders, which was nice. After some gymnastics to get the car parked - traffic downtown at 4pm yesterday was far, far worse than I've seen it recently - we watched the game from our rain-soaked seats.  Some high (lowlights):

• I know it doesn't rain much in San Diego, and almost never during the baseball season.  But even so, shouldn't the stadium designers have included a rudimentary drainage system for the low points in each deck?  We spent the game with our feet in 2 inches of water.
• Why did Yorvit Torrealba try to swipe second in the second inning?  I was buying more beer and turned around in time to see him thrown out by 200 feet.  A catcher should never try a straight steal (unless he's John Wathan), and especially should never try to steal on a wet track like yesterday's infield.  Was there a missed hit and run there?  Did Yorvit look back at the plate as he headed to second?  I need to know.
• San Diego was no-hit for the last 7.1 innings.  Enough said.
• I was somewhat surprised Jon Garland left the game in the seventh after only 95 pitches.  It worked out for the Padres, but still I was surprised.  He threw as well yesterday as I have seen him throw in person.
• There was a noticeable change in the mood every time Ryan Ludwick stepped in.  A 'geez, this guy's terrible, here comes another strikeout' vibe.  Ludwick absorbed a smattering of boos after popping out to CF to end the sixth (with Venable on third, the only Padre to make it that far yesterday).  In the ninth, the fans got up for Tejada's leadoff at-bat, stayed up for Gonzo's, then got quiet, resigned to Ludwick making an out.  Which he promptly did.  It's very frustrating watching Ludwick.  He's trying, but he's in a horrific slump.

In the third inning Aaron Cunningham hit a ball into the stands.  It wasn't a line drive, but it was hit well and had some pace on it.  Although several people tried to make a play, it sailed through the stands and struck an 8-year old boy (approximate age) on the head.  How hard was that ball hit?  It caromed back onto the field.  Immediately people started motioning for the ushers to come over and assist.

Amazingly the blow did not draw blood.  Eventually, EMT's showed up to evaulate his condition.

Count seven rows of seats from the left side of this photo, and look for the bald guy just to the right of the guy in the white t-shirt standing with his arm raised.  That's where the kid was.  You can see it's 30 feet easy from there to the grass, where the ball landed after it bounced off him.

The kid stayed another 2 innings, then he and his dad left.  Some of the fans in that section applauded the kid as he walked out, which was cool.  He looked pretty dazed to me, even 30 minutes later.  I hope his dad found his common sense and took the boy to a doctor for further evaluation.

I'm not a moralist, and I'm probably the last guy to give parenting advice, but hey dads - your primary function when at a baseball game with small children is to protect your children.  Letting your son/daughter get clocked by a foul ball?  FAIL.  Get in the way next time.  I'd rather take a line drive off the balls than see my son struck because I was more concerned with getting a souvenir than protecting him.

The kid did at least get to keep the ball.  Small consolation in my mind today, he might feel differently about it later on.

Padres got shut out, it rained, and a little kid got struck with a foul ball.  Pretty much sums up a lousy day at the ball park.  Oh yeah - for my 20 home games the Padres went 7-13.  Depressing.

***
It all comes down to this weekend.  San Diego should not focus on winning all 3 games.  They need to focus on beating Matt Cain tonight.  It really quite simple - if they don't win today, tomorrow's game doesn't mean anything.  So focus on the now.

Granted, there is also the very real possibility the Padres could be eliminated tonight, if they lose and the Braves win.  But let's not think about that.  San Diego is 2-0 against Cain this season when he's paired with Clayton Richard.  Focus on that.

It should be raucous in Pac Bell Park tonight.  Hey Padres - Feed off that.  Reach deep inside and stop the tide.

Will Venable and Chris Young save the season

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

Admit it:  after the double steal, you didn't think there was any way the Padres would get out of the first inning without allowing a run.  Not with Byrd, Aramis Ramirez, and X Nady due.  I sure didn't; I figured escaping while allowing only 1 run would be Above Average.

Emphasizing how important that sequence was, Bud Black brought the infield in for the THIRD HITTER OF THE GAME.  When was the last time you saw that?  What is a more powerful testimony to how much the Padre offense is struggling?

Cue the music.  Chris Young escaped on an easy chopper to third, one ridiculously well-placed fastball that tied Ramirez up, and a flailing strikeout of Nady.  Wow.

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

But that was nothing.  Will Venable topped that by robbing Soriano of extra bases leading off the second.  Enberg (live) and Leitner (on the Padre Replay this AM, courtesy of XX1090) both called is as taking a HR away.  From the excellent vantage point of my couch 20 miles away, it looked like Venable didn't go over the fence to catch it.  Sadly Channel 4 never offered a shot along the fence line that could have determined it, and I don't know if WGN/ESPN had a better shot of the catch.  Either way it saved a run; if the ball doesn't clear the fence, Soriano scores on Koyie Hill's double later in the inning.

But THAT was nothing.  Ramirez didn't miss a fastball in his next AB, hitting the high hard one a loong way into LC.  Venable, not slowing down and not giving up, leapt into the stands to make a spectacular catch, robbing Ramirez of a 2-run HR, and ending the inning.

The description above does not do that catch justice.  With the season on the line, playing for the first time in three days thanks to a balky back, in a game they could not afford to lose, nursing a tenuous 1-run lead, what a play by Will Venable.  San Diego should have been down 3-1 at that point, and could have been down 4 or 5-1.  Instead, they added single runs in the 4th and 6th, winning 3-0.

Unfortunately, Atlanta cruised past Florida, while Ian Kennedy made one bad pitch to Pat Burrell which he hit for a 3-run bomb, giving Tim Lincecum all the cushion he would need in a 3-1 Giants win.

San Diego still controls its destiny.  Win out and win the West.  That said, they could really use a Arizona win today coupled with a win over Chicago.  Winning two of 3 in San Fran will be very difficult; the Padres have to beat up Zito Saturday, and will need to find a way to beat either Cain or Sanchez.  Asking them to sweep this weekend series in order to qualify for the post-season is bordering on impossible.  Not with this lineup.

This morning Scott and BR brought up 1996, and the famous Padre 3-game sweep of the Dodgers to win the West.  There is one crucial difference.  That year the Dodgers had qualified for the post-season before the series started; the only question was would the Padres make it in or not.  This year, nothing is decided, and both teams face the very real possibility they could miss the post-season altogether if they lose the series.  San Francisco has a lot more incentive to win than the Dodgers did in 96.  Seeing as the Padres have dominated the season series, I would think the last team SF wants to play in the NLCS is San Diego.  Other than Philadelphia, that is.

Another big game this afternoon.  I should be there, work and weather permitting.  Podcast tonight.

Not much left to say

I said they had to win last night's game.  Is it worth repeating again today?

Two back (on the loss side) of both Atlanta and San Francisco with 5 to play.  Unless they find a way to generate some offense, and win the next two games from Chicago, the weekend series in 'Frisco won't mean a thing.

Come on guys. You've played too well for too long to give up now. Forget about last night.  Get today's game.

That One Hurt

Carlos Zambrano has pitched very well lately.  Tim Stauffer has pitched well all season.  Even with that I had a sneaking suspicion the Padres would lose last night.  I didn't expect it to be a frustrating loss, which it certainly was.

Either Mark Grant or Dick Enberg said during the telecast Zambrano is one of those pitchers you have to get to early.  I've never considered him in the same vein as Greg Maddux, who most definitely was a pitcher you had to get to early. This is kind of a silly comment, now that I think aboutit.  If you make any pitcher labor early they either will give up more runs overall, or leave the game sooner leaving it up to the long men in the bullpen.  So don't you always want to get to a pitcher early? The Padres definitely had opportunities in the first two innings, most notably thwarted by Chase Headley's line drive DP to X Nady.  Ugh.  If it was only 3 feet higher.

After Chicago pushed across their run in the seventh, the Padres had a good chance to tie in the bottom half and flubbed it.  Luckily we have Geoff at Ducksnorts to explain how they flubbed it.  Geoff does a much better job of articulating what I kind of knew intrinsically but couldn't explain.  I turned to my wife and said, "Ball Game" when that inning ended. 

Of course that was before the bizarre bottom of the ninth happened.  Yorvit with a hustle play.  Headley "hit" by a pitch that clearly bounced between his feet.  Tony Gwynn Jr walked (where was that in the seventh?).  Here's Nick Hundley.  I thought he hit that 2-1 pitch out from my couch; he actually got it off the end of the bat and it died in deep LF.

Here's a random thought - why not bunt there?  Who in the world would expect Nick Hundley to bunt in that situation?  You gotta get a run; Torrealba already slid into first to beat a throw (which was, for once, absolutely the right play).  Nick's a pretty good hitter, but by hook or by crook, right?  Not saying it was wrong for him to swing away (it wasn't; a single wins the game).  I was tired and it popped into my head.

The results of that game, as you probably know by now, dropped the Padres a game behind SF and out of the Wild Card lead.  It's really going to be tough to win the division now.  Basically the Padres have to win the rest of the games in this series, then take 2 of 3 from SF.  Should AZ take a game off the Giants it helps, because there's more margin for error, but the Padres would still need to win 2 of 3 to take the division.  Expecting AZ to win more than one game from SF is unrealistic.

It might be unrealistic to expect the Diamondbacks to win one game.  Who knows.  We'll know for sure Friday morning.

Latos makes his biggest start of the year tonight.  Padres gotta win this game.  They just gotta.

Seven Game Sprint

I should probably give some explanation to my last post.  As you know from reading the game recap, if nothing else, David Eckstein was not intentionally walked to get to Miguel Tejada on Friday night.  I did not see this game live, as I was on a softball diamond in the Mira Mesa area, and was monitoring the action from my iPhone.  The Gameday graphics showed the first 3 pitches to be waaaay outside - like splitting the left handed batters box outside.  It sure looked like he was being pitched around to get to Tejada, which made no sense, and still makes no sense.

Hence the post.  Guess Posnanski won't be covering this one.

Anywho, we reach the last week of the regular season.  I have a Baseball Digest post pending talking about this next series with the Cubs.  In a perfect world, the Diamondbacks would sweep San Fran, San Diego would sweep the Cubs, and we'd go to the Bay Area with a 3-game lead and 3 to play.  Since San Diego holds the season series edge (10-5 at this point), the NL West would be ours.  That's probably not going to happen.

So what, realistically, should our expectations be?  Splitting this series with the Cubs is absolutely essential.  You gotta figure the Giants are going to get at least 2 of their 3 games with AZ.  Splitting the 4 game series sends San Diego to San Fran 1 game back with 3 to play.  Still a tall order, but do-able, to win 2 of those 3 and the Division.  Should the Giants sweep, well, then the Padres would have to sweep to win the division, and that's probably not going to happen.

I think the club can take 2 of these games from the Cubs, most likely the last two (against Wells and Gorzelanny).  Getting one of the first 2 (against a hot Zambrano and Dempster, the Cub ace) will be a taller order. At least we have Latos going on Tuesday, well, hopefully the May-August Latos.

Starters for the AZ/SF series:

• Rodrigo Lopez vs Sanchez
• Ian Kennedy vs Bumgarner
• Barry Enright vs Lincecum

AZ has a shot at two of those games, although admittedly it depends on which Sanchez shows up.  Kennedy has thrown every bit as well as Bumgarner.  Enright is no slouch, but let's face it, Lincecum is hot so advantage SF.

In any case, buckle your seat belts.  It's going to be a heck of a week.

I Don't Get It, but Thank You

Let's set the scene:  First and third, 2 out, Cincinnati leading by a run.  Arthur Rhodes on the mound, David Eckstein stepping in.  Rhodes was an All-Star this season, has an ERA+ of 200, and sits third in the NL in holds (a meaningless statistic yes, but anyway).

Eckstein career against Rhodes - 3 for 9, HR, HBP
Tejada career against Rhodes - 4 for 20, 2 BB, no extra base hits.

Dusty Baker pops out of the dugout.  He signals the bullpen for Nick Masset.  Masset has had a good year too, but not as good as Rhodes (not an All-Star, ERA+ 114, better K/9 but worse WHIP, 16th in holds)

Eckstein career vs Masset:  Never faced.
Tejada career vs Masset:  2 for 5, no extra base hits.

Baseball is fun because baseball is replete with small sample sizes, and many many MANY decisions are made based on small snippets of information.  I suspect Dusty Baker had these snippets at his disposal.  Small sample sizes are fraught with danger, but even so one COULD say Tejada had better numbers against Masset than Rhodes.  With the game on the line one would think the best matchup is what the manager seeks to set up, and in that vein Rhodes vs Tejada seems to be the best matchup.

Given that, why in the world would he have Masset pitch to Tejada instead of Rhodes, if he was going to walk Eckstein?

On another slightly less controversial subject, WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD DUSTY BAKER INTENTIONALLY WALK ANYBODY TO PUT THE GO AHEAD RUN IN SCORING POSITION?

Wait - why am I complaining?  Thanks Dusty, for the gift tonight, and the NL Wild Card lead.  Please, continue doing what it is you do.

I hope Joe Posnanski tears this decision apart in about 5000 words.  I look forward to that read.

Back in First Place



"Don't worry, boys - I got this."

Does the air seem cleaner today?  The sky brighter, traffic lighter, and people happier than yesterday?  It could be the Wednesday AM drizzle cleared out some of the lingering summer crap.  OR, it could be the Padres return to first place.



Yes, thanks to the Diamondbacks beating the Colorado Ubaldos, and Chicago shutting out the Giants, San Diego returns to their rightful place atop the NL West.  Philadelphia's sweep of Atlanta also pushed the Padres ahead of the Braves in the Wild Card race.

Overnight, San Diego's playoff odds jumped from 44.1% to 61.9%.  Awesome.

Miguel Tejada provided the big blow with his 300th career HR, and that's a big milestone to be sure.  But let us pause a moment and consider what Tim Stauffer has done in the rotation lately.  He's made for high leverage starts in September, thrown 21 innings, allowed 6 runs.  Four of those came in the same game, last Thursday in St Louis; 3 of those runs scored because Albert Pujols' RBI dying flare landed JUUUUUST out of Ryan Ludwick's reach, and Yadier Molina's hit a 2 RBI flare off Ryan Webb in a perfect spot (on the RF line out of everyone's reach).

Overall he's thrown 26 innings as a starter and posted a 2.08 ERA.  In September he's been the best Padre starter not named Clayton Richard.  With Jon Garland's and Mat Latos' struggles, Stauffer has been essential to keeping San Diego in the playoff hunt.  It is not an exaggeration to say the Padres probably would be dead and buried without him.

Mat Latos will start today against Hiroki Kuroda.  Frankly I'm a bit surprised by this.  Yes he did get an extra day of rest following his Friday start/drubbing in St Louis, but I kind of expected San Diego to skip his turn in the rotation and have Chris Young start today on normal rest.  Granted, CY has not beaten LA in LA since 2007 (and in fact has only beaten the Dodgers once up there), but it seemed a good time to rest Latos.

The Cardinals and Giants attacked Latos early in the count with great success.  It will be quite interesting to see how Latos adjusts to that strategy in this start.

The Padres Trail Podcast returns tonight!  We've a lot to talk about.  Hope you can listen in.

Because, You Know, We Need Some Levity Here

When I came to work today, I was blue.  No, not literally.  I was tired, I blew off my workout period (which I later regretted), my right calf ached where I was hit by a batted ball last night (Sure sign you should stop pitching to your team in 3-pitch softball?  You start getting hit every game, because you're too slow to get your glove down and/or get your legs out of the way gracefully).

Then I came to work, found my way to Deadspin, and discovered the Fire Joe Morgan team was posting.  Oh Happy Day.

Amongst the usual excellent satire (which included a Joe Morgan piece, appropriately enough) was a story on a subject that drew me to their site in the first place:  David Eckstein and his grittiness.

It is worth the read.  But in case you don't have the time today/tonight to read the full article, I carefully chose this paragraph for your perusal, mostly because I don't want to lose it to history.

No room in the game for David Eckstein? "I hope that's not the case," Black said recently. "He's a baseball player with talent. One thing I think gets overlooked: he can play.

IT IS NOT OVERLOOKED. IT IS ALL ANYONE EVER FUCKING TALKS ABOUT.

You know who's overlooked? Adrian Fucking Gonzalez. Nobody in the world outside of Adrian Gonzalez's immediate family has any idea he even exists, much less that he is one of the very best hitters in the world. A reporter recently asked Yorvit Torrealba to talk about how good Adrian Gonzalez has been for the Pads this year, and Torrealba said, "There is no one on our team by that name. You are mistaken. Perhaps you mean to ask about David Eckstein?" Then he directed the reporter over to a velvet-roped-off area down the left field line where David Eckstein was standing on a giant lazy susan, like a 20-foot Bowrider at a boat show, rotating slowly as thousands of screaming journalists took his picture so they could say they once got the chance to see the great David Eckstein in person. And while this was happening, Adrian Gonzalez, who has a .922 OPS hitting in fucking Petco every night, was outside gnawing on discarded chicken wings in a dumpster because he doesn't even get paid for playing baseball, because nobody knows who he is. That's a true story, people.

Man I miss Fire Joe Morgan.

Richard goes The Route. Twelve to go.

Clayton Richard threw his first shutout as a Padre, Ryan Ludwick continued his resurgence with 3 RBI, and the Padres whipped the Dodgers 6-0.  Giants won, so they stay a 1/2 game out.  Rockies lost, so they picked up a full game (Rocks now 2.5 back of SF).

As I detailed yesterday over at Baseball Digest, San Diego is in a dogfight now.  I think they have two advantages - a slightly easier schedule, and one more home game than their rivals.  Of course they still have to win.  The unfortunate reality of their recent struggles is, they no longer control their own destiny.  San Francisco must lose, and so too Atlanta, for the Padres to play post-season baseball.  Happily they trail Atlanta by a 1/2 game as well in the Wild Card race.

More good news:  ESPN has upgraded their playoff chances to 44.6% from 35.1% yesterday.  Almost a 50/50 chance now.  That's awesome considering what's transpired since 26 August.

Tim Stauffer vs Ted Lilly tonight.  Lilly mesmerized the Padres at Chavez Ravine back on August 3 in a 2-1 Los Angeles win. I think he retired 21 in a row at one point.  Stauffer has made 5 career starts against the Dodgers, the last being September 6 of this year.  San Diego has won 3 in a row when he starts.  Stauffer has been the Padres' other good pitcher over the last 2 weeks (in addition to Richard), so we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Ubaldo goes for the Rockies against Rodrigo Lopez in Arizona.  Jonathan "Big Mouth" Sanchez will face Randy Wells in Chicago.  I find myself in the interesting position of rooting for the Small Bears.  The things we must do to see our teams through.

Love Coors Field

The Padres have one one series in Colorado every year since 2003.  Did they pick a good time to get their series win for 2010, or what?  With the buzzards circling, and Colorado seemingly on the same path they took to the World Series in 2007, virtually no one expected the Padres to put up much resistance this week.

Someone forgot to tell the 25+ guys in the visitors dugout they'd been buried for 2010, and ought to work on their tee time schedule.

The much bally-hood inability to score 5 runs in a game, at least since August 26?  San Diego has scored 6 and 7 runs in the two games of this series.  Put that little streak to bed.  There's nothing like playing in Coors Field to cure whatever offensive ills one has.

The problems San Diego starters not named Richard and Latos seemed to have?  Mostly put away.  Yes, Cory Luebke and Jon Garland each had one bad inning in their starts, but by and large the starting pitching has been solid.  The bullpen has returned to its former lights out form (Heath Bell's adventure in the ninth inning last night notwithstanding).

Suddenly the Padres find themselves with a 1.5 game lead on San Francicso, and 3.5 on Colorado.  A little breathing room never felt so good.  A sweep of this series is too much to ask, but the Padres will go for that behind Clayton Richard today.

Two other notes of interest regarding this blog:

1.  There will not be a Podcast this week because,
2.  I will be in St Louis for the Thursday game with the Cardinals.  It is Social Media night at Busch, and in my other capacity as a Cardinal blogger I'm going.  There is a panel discussion scheduled, including some of the local press writers covering the team.  I will not be on the panel, which is probably good.

As a result, there won't be much (if any) content on this here blog before the weekend ends.  However, come Monday I should have a summary post up on the weeks activities somewhere.

It gets harder from here

Let's start with some good news:

- After losing 10 straight, the Padres went 4-3.  Improvement, baby!
- Tim Stauffer looks legit, and with Wade LeBlanc/Kevin Correia struggling the Padres rotation needed a lift.  We really needed you Tim.  Nice job.
- The strike 'em out, throw 'em out to end Saturday's game was ridiculous.  That was exciting.
- Bud Black finally dropped Ryan Ludwick down in the order.  I'm probably the biggest Ryan Ludwick fan in San Diego, but it's about time.  Ludwick has been killing us.
- San Diego is still in first.
- They are headed to Colorado.  If there's a tonic for a struggling offense, it's Coors Field.
- I'm going to appear on the I-70 baseball Podcast tonight about 8:15 local time.  This is a Cardinals/Royals focused production, but since San Diego will be in St Louis the end of this week, I was invited.  Should be interesting.  I'm expecting lots of questions on the 'collapse'.
- I did something very rash this week:

Yes that is a bet on the Padres WINNING the World Series.  It might be throwing money away, but what the heck.  I'll cut 10 sodas out of my diet.

Now the bad news.

- Padres still aren't hitting.  They scored 3 meaningful runs this weekend against San Francisco in 4 games.  Ludwick's HR on Thursday night was nice, but cosmetic as the Padres were down 6 when he hit it.
- The brutal September continues.  Now in a virtual tie for first, with Colorado only a game and a half behind both us and the Giants, we travel to Denver.  Colorado has won TEN STRAIGHT at the moment, and are 11-4 this season against San Diego.
- Then they get to play in St Louis.  San Diego is 7-26 in St Louis since 2000, and have lost 9 in a row there.

Hope springs eternal, but reality is starting to smother hope.  Today ESPN projected the Padres have a 48.8% chance of making the playoffs.  Unless they snap out of their funk starting today they might be out of the playoff hunt eintirely by next Sunday.

Sweep

Four consecutive series sweeps.  At least this one went the Padres way.  This marks the first time San Diego has swept LA here since June 2007 (June 5-7 2007, to be exact).

It could not come at a better time.  Coming off the long losing streak, San Diego needed a shot of confidence.  They've gotten it.  Coupled with San Francisco losing to Arizona, last night's win marked the first time since 25 August the Padres have gained ground in the division.  Also quite nice.

Cory Luebke?  I think this is more what the Padres expected when they promoted him last week.  We all were concerned when he gave up 2 long HR in that game vs. Colorado, but I liked the fact he settled down and retired the last 11 hitters he faced.  Luebke seemed to find himself after the Tulowitzki HR, and he carried that into Wednesday's game.  He's probably earned himself another start, next Monday in Colorado.  I'm sure he'd like to face those guys again.

Ryan Ludwick sat last night, a move that was long overdue.  I think he would be well served to sit tonight too; one more change to regroup before hitting it again on Friday.

Big series tonight - I don't need to tell you that.  It looks more and more likely I'll be at tonight's game.  There won't be a Podcast tonight if I'm at the ballpark, but I will tweet periodically throughout the game here.  Feel free to respond and participate.  And oh if you're going to tonight's game too let me know - maybe we'll meet for a beer or something.

Two straight

This just in:  Mat Latos is good.  Just for fun, let's compare his strikeouts per nine inning ratio to other notable National League pitchers (not including games on 7 Sept):

• Lincecum - 9.5
• Latos - 9.3
• Jimenez - 8.4
• Wainwright - 8.3
• Halladay - 8.0
• Carpenter - 6.9

A question on the Padres post-game show last night that Scanlon answered asked if Latos should be included in conversations on the NL Cy Young.  Absolutely.  That comparison above is just a sampler of how good Latos has been in 2010.

I thought Bud Black really rolled the dice bringing Mike Adams in to start the eighth inning, given the high leverage 5 outs Adams got Monday night.  Adams was not up to the task.  Black decided to bring Heath Bell in for a 5-out save.  Considering the Dodgers had the tying run on second with one out in the inning, and that Bell hadn't pitched since 27 August before last night, I thought it absolutely the right move.  Bell striking out 4 and getting the save was gravy.

The only downside?  I suspect both Adams and Bell will not be available today.  San Diego has assured itself of at least a tie for first place going into the Giant series.  I would think having both those pitchers ready for Thursday's game is more important than running them back out there Wednesday.  Besides, everyone else (less Tim Stauffer) should be available to back up Luebke.

Padres go for the sweep today.  Is it too early to talk magic numbers?  Yes it is.  Let's save that discussion until after the weekend series with San Francisco.

Why hit Hundley eighth?

I'm KILLING the ball right now!

One of the recurring themes of this season is a lack of offense.  Or at least a lack of consistent offense.  The other more recent theme (that, mercifully, has been laid to rest) is the 10-game skid and various people ('fans') screaming "The Padres are falling straight out of first place and through the center of the earth!  AAAAA!"

Talk about getting all worked up over a small sample size.  But speaking of a small sample size, last night Nick Hundley hit his second HR of the homestand . . . from the 8-hole.  Which begs the question:  Why is Hundley hitting eighth?

To start the argument, here are the offensive numbers for the main Padre hitters since the start of the losing streak (August 26 thru last night):

• Hundley:  .375/.375/.792, 2 HR (24 PA)
• Denorfia:  .214/.290/.321, 0 HR (31 PA)
• Eckstein:  .184/.256/.184, 0 HR (44 PA)
• Ludwick:  .200/.256/.225, 0 HR (43 PA)
• Gonzalez:  .385/.467/.538, 1 HR (45 PA)
• Tejada:    .214/.233/.429, 3 HR (43 PA)
• Headley:  .175/.233/.225, 0 HR (43 PA)
• Venable:  .059/.059/.059, 0 HR (34 PA)
• Torrealba:  .235/.316/.412, 1 HR (19 PA)

One expects to see a lot of lousy averages after losing 10 of 11, and those numbers are truly horrible.  Other than Adrian Gonzalez, Hundley has been the best hitter on the club over that stretch, yet he and Yorvit are splitting time behind the plate, and he is hitting low in the order.

Based on these numbers, I would rearrange the lineup thusly.

1. Chris Denorfia
2. Ryan Ludwick
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Nick Hundley
5. Miguel Tejada
6. David Eckstein
7. Chase Headley
8. Pitcher's spot
9. Will Venable

Gonzalez and Hundley lead the team in OBP right now.  Neither one is a guy you want hitting leadoff based on their speed and/or their power.  So it defaults to the #3 guy right now, Denorfia.  Ludwick has better power potential than Eckstein.  Personally I like him hitting #2; he thrived there with the Cardinals, and it puts him in front of a marquee hitter again in Gonzo.  Gonzalez returns to his customary #3 hole, Hundley is #4 because he's hot.  Tejada hits fifth, again because of power potential over the rest of the candidates.  Eckstein has the highest remaining OBP, so he's sixth, followed by Headley.  Venable is struggling so bad the Padre pitchers are more of a threat right now, so they hit eighth and Will slides into the ninth slot.

That's a major shake-up.  This team hasn't scored more than 5 runs in 10 games, and their last 5-run outburst came well after that game was decided.  If that proposed lineup makes you uncomfortable, fine; let's go with this one:

1. Denorfia
2. Eckstein
3. Gonzalez
4. Hundley
5. Tejada
6. Headley
7. Ludwick
8. Pitcher's spot
9. Venable

Moves Gonzo back to #3, Hundley to #4, Pitcher to #8, and Ludwick/Venable down to #7 and #9, respectively.  A little less radical, but still moves people around based on how they're doing right now.

Again, we have to be careful with small sample sizes - they can be very misleading.  However, Nick Hundley is such a 'shimmering star in the [Padre offensive] firmament' at this moment in history he should not be hitting 8th UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

Move him up, Mr. Black.