Wet, Gloomy Day at Petco

Work permitted, so I headed down to Petco for yesterday's regular season finale.

Initially weather did not cooperate:







I've been going to Padres games upwards of 20 years, and that's the first time I can remember seeing the tarp on the field.  Exciting.  Seats were soaked, so I skulked with my beer at the top of our section awaiting the wife's arrival.  Which was delayed, because she had inadvertently left her ticket and the parking pass at home (I took the trolley down from work). 

She didn't have to head home, as we can get a reprinted ticket as season ticket holders, which was nice. After some gymnastics to get the car parked - traffic downtown at 4pm yesterday was far, far worse than I've seen it recently - we watched the game from our rain-soaked seats.  Some high (lowlights):

• I know it doesn't rain much in San Diego, and almost never during the baseball season.  But even so, shouldn't the stadium designers have included a rudimentary drainage system for the low points in each deck?  We spent the game with our feet in 2 inches of water.
• Why did Yorvit Torrealba try to swipe second in the second inning?  I was buying more beer and turned around in time to see him thrown out by 200 feet.  A catcher should never try a straight steal (unless he's John Wathan), and especially should never try to steal on a wet track like yesterday's infield.  Was there a missed hit and run there?  Did Yorvit look back at the plate as he headed to second?  I need to know.
• San Diego was no-hit for the last 7.1 innings.  Enough said.
• I was somewhat surprised Jon Garland left the game in the seventh after only 95 pitches.  It worked out for the Padres, but still I was surprised.  He threw as well yesterday as I have seen him throw in person.
• There was a noticeable change in the mood every time Ryan Ludwick stepped in.  A 'geez, this guy's terrible, here comes another strikeout' vibe.  Ludwick absorbed a smattering of boos after popping out to CF to end the sixth (with Venable on third, the only Padre to make it that far yesterday).  In the ninth, the fans got up for Tejada's leadoff at-bat, stayed up for Gonzo's, then got quiet, resigned to Ludwick making an out.  Which he promptly did.  It's very frustrating watching Ludwick.  He's trying, but he's in a horrific slump.

In the third inning Aaron Cunningham hit a ball into the stands.  It wasn't a line drive, but it was hit well and had some pace on it.  Although several people tried to make a play, it sailed through the stands and struck an 8-year old boy (approximate age) on the head.  How hard was that ball hit?  It caromed back onto the field.  Immediately people started motioning for the ushers to come over and assist.

Amazingly the blow did not draw blood.  Eventually, EMT's showed up to evaulate his condition.

Count seven rows of seats from the left side of this photo, and look for the bald guy just to the right of the guy in the white t-shirt standing with his arm raised.  That's where the kid was.  You can see it's 30 feet easy from there to the grass, where the ball landed after it bounced off him.

The kid stayed another 2 innings, then he and his dad left.  Some of the fans in that section applauded the kid as he walked out, which was cool.  He looked pretty dazed to me, even 30 minutes later.  I hope his dad found his common sense and took the boy to a doctor for further evaluation.

I'm not a moralist, and I'm probably the last guy to give parenting advice, but hey dads - your primary function when at a baseball game with small children is to protect your children.  Letting your son/daughter get clocked by a foul ball?  FAIL.  Get in the way next time.  I'd rather take a line drive off the balls than see my son struck because I was more concerned with getting a souvenir than protecting him.

The kid did at least get to keep the ball.  Small consolation in my mind today, he might feel differently about it later on.

Padres got shut out, it rained, and a little kid got struck with a foul ball.  Pretty much sums up a lousy day at the ball park.  Oh yeah - for my 20 home games the Padres went 7-13.  Depressing.

***
It all comes down to this weekend.  San Diego should not focus on winning all 3 games.  They need to focus on beating Matt Cain tonight.  It really quite simple - if they don't win today, tomorrow's game doesn't mean anything.  So focus on the now.

Granted, there is also the very real possibility the Padres could be eliminated tonight, if they lose and the Braves win.  But let's not think about that.  San Diego is 2-0 against Cain this season when he's paired with Clayton Richard.  Focus on that.

It should be raucous in Pac Bell Park tonight.  Hey Padres - Feed off that.  Reach deep inside and stop the tide.

Will Venable and Chris Young save the season

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

Admit it:  after the double steal, you didn't think there was any way the Padres would get out of the first inning without allowing a run.  Not with Byrd, Aramis Ramirez, and X Nady due.  I sure didn't; I figured escaping while allowing only 1 run would be Above Average.

Emphasizing how important that sequence was, Bud Black brought the infield in for the THIRD HITTER OF THE GAME.  When was the last time you saw that?  What is a more powerful testimony to how much the Padre offense is struggling?

Cue the music.  Chris Young escaped on an easy chopper to third, one ridiculously well-placed fastball that tied Ramirez up, and a flailing strikeout of Nady.  Wow.

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

But that was nothing.  Will Venable topped that by robbing Soriano of extra bases leading off the second.  Enberg (live) and Leitner (on the Padre Replay this AM, courtesy of XX1090) both called is as taking a HR away.  From the excellent vantage point of my couch 20 miles away, it looked like Venable didn't go over the fence to catch it.  Sadly Channel 4 never offered a shot along the fence line that could have determined it, and I don't know if WGN/ESPN had a better shot of the catch.  Either way it saved a run; if the ball doesn't clear the fence, Soriano scores on Koyie Hill's double later in the inning.

But THAT was nothing.  Ramirez didn't miss a fastball in his next AB, hitting the high hard one a loong way into LC.  Venable, not slowing down and not giving up, leapt into the stands to make a spectacular catch, robbing Ramirez of a 2-run HR, and ending the inning.

The description above does not do that catch justice.  With the season on the line, playing for the first time in three days thanks to a balky back, in a game they could not afford to lose, nursing a tenuous 1-run lead, what a play by Will Venable.  San Diego should have been down 3-1 at that point, and could have been down 4 or 5-1.  Instead, they added single runs in the 4th and 6th, winning 3-0.

Unfortunately, Atlanta cruised past Florida, while Ian Kennedy made one bad pitch to Pat Burrell which he hit for a 3-run bomb, giving Tim Lincecum all the cushion he would need in a 3-1 Giants win.

San Diego still controls its destiny.  Win out and win the West.  That said, they could really use a Arizona win today coupled with a win over Chicago.  Winning two of 3 in San Fran will be very difficult; the Padres have to beat up Zito Saturday, and will need to find a way to beat either Cain or Sanchez.  Asking them to sweep this weekend series in order to qualify for the post-season is bordering on impossible.  Not with this lineup.

This morning Scott and BR brought up 1996, and the famous Padre 3-game sweep of the Dodgers to win the West.  There is one crucial difference.  That year the Dodgers had qualified for the post-season before the series started; the only question was would the Padres make it in or not.  This year, nothing is decided, and both teams face the very real possibility they could miss the post-season altogether if they lose the series.  San Francisco has a lot more incentive to win than the Dodgers did in 96.  Seeing as the Padres have dominated the season series, I would think the last team SF wants to play in the NLCS is San Diego.  Other than Philadelphia, that is.

Another big game this afternoon.  I should be there, work and weather permitting.  Podcast tonight.

Not much left to say

I said they had to win last night's game.  Is it worth repeating again today?

Two back (on the loss side) of both Atlanta and San Francisco with 5 to play.  Unless they find a way to generate some offense, and win the next two games from Chicago, the weekend series in 'Frisco won't mean a thing.

Come on guys. You've played too well for too long to give up now. Forget about last night.  Get today's game.

That One Hurt

Carlos Zambrano has pitched very well lately.  Tim Stauffer has pitched well all season.  Even with that I had a sneaking suspicion the Padres would lose last night.  I didn't expect it to be a frustrating loss, which it certainly was.

Either Mark Grant or Dick Enberg said during the telecast Zambrano is one of those pitchers you have to get to early.  I've never considered him in the same vein as Greg Maddux, who most definitely was a pitcher you had to get to early. This is kind of a silly comment, now that I think aboutit.  If you make any pitcher labor early they either will give up more runs overall, or leave the game sooner leaving it up to the long men in the bullpen.  So don't you always want to get to a pitcher early? The Padres definitely had opportunities in the first two innings, most notably thwarted by Chase Headley's line drive DP to X Nady.  Ugh.  If it was only 3 feet higher.

After Chicago pushed across their run in the seventh, the Padres had a good chance to tie in the bottom half and flubbed it.  Luckily we have Geoff at Ducksnorts to explain how they flubbed it.  Geoff does a much better job of articulating what I kind of knew intrinsically but couldn't explain.  I turned to my wife and said, "Ball Game" when that inning ended. 

Of course that was before the bizarre bottom of the ninth happened.  Yorvit with a hustle play.  Headley "hit" by a pitch that clearly bounced between his feet.  Tony Gwynn Jr walked (where was that in the seventh?).  Here's Nick Hundley.  I thought he hit that 2-1 pitch out from my couch; he actually got it off the end of the bat and it died in deep LF.

Here's a random thought - why not bunt there?  Who in the world would expect Nick Hundley to bunt in that situation?  You gotta get a run; Torrealba already slid into first to beat a throw (which was, for once, absolutely the right play).  Nick's a pretty good hitter, but by hook or by crook, right?  Not saying it was wrong for him to swing away (it wasn't; a single wins the game).  I was tired and it popped into my head.

The results of that game, as you probably know by now, dropped the Padres a game behind SF and out of the Wild Card lead.  It's really going to be tough to win the division now.  Basically the Padres have to win the rest of the games in this series, then take 2 of 3 from SF.  Should AZ take a game off the Giants it helps, because there's more margin for error, but the Padres would still need to win 2 of 3 to take the division.  Expecting AZ to win more than one game from SF is unrealistic.

It might be unrealistic to expect the Diamondbacks to win one game.  Who knows.  We'll know for sure Friday morning.

Latos makes his biggest start of the year tonight.  Padres gotta win this game.  They just gotta.

Seven Game Sprint

I should probably give some explanation to my last post.  As you know from reading the game recap, if nothing else, David Eckstein was not intentionally walked to get to Miguel Tejada on Friday night.  I did not see this game live, as I was on a softball diamond in the Mira Mesa area, and was monitoring the action from my iPhone.  The Gameday graphics showed the first 3 pitches to be waaaay outside - like splitting the left handed batters box outside.  It sure looked like he was being pitched around to get to Tejada, which made no sense, and still makes no sense.

Hence the post.  Guess Posnanski won't be covering this one.

Anywho, we reach the last week of the regular season.  I have a Baseball Digest post pending talking about this next series with the Cubs.  In a perfect world, the Diamondbacks would sweep San Fran, San Diego would sweep the Cubs, and we'd go to the Bay Area with a 3-game lead and 3 to play.  Since San Diego holds the season series edge (10-5 at this point), the NL West would be ours.  That's probably not going to happen.

So what, realistically, should our expectations be?  Splitting this series with the Cubs is absolutely essential.  You gotta figure the Giants are going to get at least 2 of their 3 games with AZ.  Splitting the 4 game series sends San Diego to San Fran 1 game back with 3 to play.  Still a tall order, but do-able, to win 2 of those 3 and the Division.  Should the Giants sweep, well, then the Padres would have to sweep to win the division, and that's probably not going to happen.

I think the club can take 2 of these games from the Cubs, most likely the last two (against Wells and Gorzelanny).  Getting one of the first 2 (against a hot Zambrano and Dempster, the Cub ace) will be a taller order. At least we have Latos going on Tuesday, well, hopefully the May-August Latos.

Starters for the AZ/SF series:

• Rodrigo Lopez vs Sanchez
• Ian Kennedy vs Bumgarner
• Barry Enright vs Lincecum

AZ has a shot at two of those games, although admittedly it depends on which Sanchez shows up.  Kennedy has thrown every bit as well as Bumgarner.  Enright is no slouch, but let's face it, Lincecum is hot so advantage SF.

In any case, buckle your seat belts.  It's going to be a heck of a week.

I Don't Get It, but Thank You

Let's set the scene:  First and third, 2 out, Cincinnati leading by a run.  Arthur Rhodes on the mound, David Eckstein stepping in.  Rhodes was an All-Star this season, has an ERA+ of 200, and sits third in the NL in holds (a meaningless statistic yes, but anyway).

Eckstein career against Rhodes - 3 for 9, HR, HBP
Tejada career against Rhodes - 4 for 20, 2 BB, no extra base hits.

Dusty Baker pops out of the dugout.  He signals the bullpen for Nick Masset.  Masset has had a good year too, but not as good as Rhodes (not an All-Star, ERA+ 114, better K/9 but worse WHIP, 16th in holds)

Eckstein career vs Masset:  Never faced.
Tejada career vs Masset:  2 for 5, no extra base hits.

Baseball is fun because baseball is replete with small sample sizes, and many many MANY decisions are made based on small snippets of information.  I suspect Dusty Baker had these snippets at his disposal.  Small sample sizes are fraught with danger, but even so one COULD say Tejada had better numbers against Masset than Rhodes.  With the game on the line one would think the best matchup is what the manager seeks to set up, and in that vein Rhodes vs Tejada seems to be the best matchup.

Given that, why in the world would he have Masset pitch to Tejada instead of Rhodes, if he was going to walk Eckstein?

On another slightly less controversial subject, WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD DUSTY BAKER INTENTIONALLY WALK ANYBODY TO PUT THE GO AHEAD RUN IN SCORING POSITION?

Wait - why am I complaining?  Thanks Dusty, for the gift tonight, and the NL Wild Card lead.  Please, continue doing what it is you do.

I hope Joe Posnanski tears this decision apart in about 5000 words.  I look forward to that read.

Back in First Place



"Don't worry, boys - I got this."

Does the air seem cleaner today?  The sky brighter, traffic lighter, and people happier than yesterday?  It could be the Wednesday AM drizzle cleared out some of the lingering summer crap.  OR, it could be the Padres return to first place.



Yes, thanks to the Diamondbacks beating the Colorado Ubaldos, and Chicago shutting out the Giants, San Diego returns to their rightful place atop the NL West.  Philadelphia's sweep of Atlanta also pushed the Padres ahead of the Braves in the Wild Card race.

Overnight, San Diego's playoff odds jumped from 44.1% to 61.9%.  Awesome.

Miguel Tejada provided the big blow with his 300th career HR, and that's a big milestone to be sure.  But let us pause a moment and consider what Tim Stauffer has done in the rotation lately.  He's made for high leverage starts in September, thrown 21 innings, allowed 6 runs.  Four of those came in the same game, last Thursday in St Louis; 3 of those runs scored because Albert Pujols' RBI dying flare landed JUUUUUST out of Ryan Ludwick's reach, and Yadier Molina's hit a 2 RBI flare off Ryan Webb in a perfect spot (on the RF line out of everyone's reach).

Overall he's thrown 26 innings as a starter and posted a 2.08 ERA.  In September he's been the best Padre starter not named Clayton Richard.  With Jon Garland's and Mat Latos' struggles, Stauffer has been essential to keeping San Diego in the playoff hunt.  It is not an exaggeration to say the Padres probably would be dead and buried without him.

Mat Latos will start today against Hiroki Kuroda.  Frankly I'm a bit surprised by this.  Yes he did get an extra day of rest following his Friday start/drubbing in St Louis, but I kind of expected San Diego to skip his turn in the rotation and have Chris Young start today on normal rest.  Granted, CY has not beaten LA in LA since 2007 (and in fact has only beaten the Dodgers once up there), but it seemed a good time to rest Latos.

The Cardinals and Giants attacked Latos early in the count with great success.  It will be quite interesting to see how Latos adjusts to that strategy in this start.

The Padres Trail Podcast returns tonight!  We've a lot to talk about.  Hope you can listen in.

Because, You Know, We Need Some Levity Here

When I came to work today, I was blue.  No, not literally.  I was tired, I blew off my workout period (which I later regretted), my right calf ached where I was hit by a batted ball last night (Sure sign you should stop pitching to your team in 3-pitch softball?  You start getting hit every game, because you're too slow to get your glove down and/or get your legs out of the way gracefully).

Then I came to work, found my way to Deadspin, and discovered the Fire Joe Morgan team was posting.  Oh Happy Day.

Amongst the usual excellent satire (which included a Joe Morgan piece, appropriately enough) was a story on a subject that drew me to their site in the first place:  David Eckstein and his grittiness.

It is worth the read.  But in case you don't have the time today/tonight to read the full article, I carefully chose this paragraph for your perusal, mostly because I don't want to lose it to history.

No room in the game for David Eckstein? "I hope that's not the case," Black said recently. "He's a baseball player with talent. One thing I think gets overlooked: he can play.

IT IS NOT OVERLOOKED. IT IS ALL ANYONE EVER FUCKING TALKS ABOUT.

You know who's overlooked? Adrian Fucking Gonzalez. Nobody in the world outside of Adrian Gonzalez's immediate family has any idea he even exists, much less that he is one of the very best hitters in the world. A reporter recently asked Yorvit Torrealba to talk about how good Adrian Gonzalez has been for the Pads this year, and Torrealba said, "There is no one on our team by that name. You are mistaken. Perhaps you mean to ask about David Eckstein?" Then he directed the reporter over to a velvet-roped-off area down the left field line where David Eckstein was standing on a giant lazy susan, like a 20-foot Bowrider at a boat show, rotating slowly as thousands of screaming journalists took his picture so they could say they once got the chance to see the great David Eckstein in person. And while this was happening, Adrian Gonzalez, who has a .922 OPS hitting in fucking Petco every night, was outside gnawing on discarded chicken wings in a dumpster because he doesn't even get paid for playing baseball, because nobody knows who he is. That's a true story, people.

Man I miss Fire Joe Morgan.

Richard goes The Route. Twelve to go.

Clayton Richard threw his first shutout as a Padre, Ryan Ludwick continued his resurgence with 3 RBI, and the Padres whipped the Dodgers 6-0.  Giants won, so they stay a 1/2 game out.  Rockies lost, so they picked up a full game (Rocks now 2.5 back of SF).

As I detailed yesterday over at Baseball Digest, San Diego is in a dogfight now.  I think they have two advantages - a slightly easier schedule, and one more home game than their rivals.  Of course they still have to win.  The unfortunate reality of their recent struggles is, they no longer control their own destiny.  San Francisco must lose, and so too Atlanta, for the Padres to play post-season baseball.  Happily they trail Atlanta by a 1/2 game as well in the Wild Card race.

More good news:  ESPN has upgraded their playoff chances to 44.6% from 35.1% yesterday.  Almost a 50/50 chance now.  That's awesome considering what's transpired since 26 August.

Tim Stauffer vs Ted Lilly tonight.  Lilly mesmerized the Padres at Chavez Ravine back on August 3 in a 2-1 Los Angeles win. I think he retired 21 in a row at one point.  Stauffer has made 5 career starts against the Dodgers, the last being September 6 of this year.  San Diego has won 3 in a row when he starts.  Stauffer has been the Padres' other good pitcher over the last 2 weeks (in addition to Richard), so we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Ubaldo goes for the Rockies against Rodrigo Lopez in Arizona.  Jonathan "Big Mouth" Sanchez will face Randy Wells in Chicago.  I find myself in the interesting position of rooting for the Small Bears.  The things we must do to see our teams through.

Love Coors Field

The Padres have one one series in Colorado every year since 2003.  Did they pick a good time to get their series win for 2010, or what?  With the buzzards circling, and Colorado seemingly on the same path they took to the World Series in 2007, virtually no one expected the Padres to put up much resistance this week.

Someone forgot to tell the 25+ guys in the visitors dugout they'd been buried for 2010, and ought to work on their tee time schedule.

The much bally-hood inability to score 5 runs in a game, at least since August 26?  San Diego has scored 6 and 7 runs in the two games of this series.  Put that little streak to bed.  There's nothing like playing in Coors Field to cure whatever offensive ills one has.

The problems San Diego starters not named Richard and Latos seemed to have?  Mostly put away.  Yes, Cory Luebke and Jon Garland each had one bad inning in their starts, but by and large the starting pitching has been solid.  The bullpen has returned to its former lights out form (Heath Bell's adventure in the ninth inning last night notwithstanding).

Suddenly the Padres find themselves with a 1.5 game lead on San Francicso, and 3.5 on Colorado.  A little breathing room never felt so good.  A sweep of this series is too much to ask, but the Padres will go for that behind Clayton Richard today.

Two other notes of interest regarding this blog:

1.  There will not be a Podcast this week because,
2.  I will be in St Louis for the Thursday game with the Cardinals.  It is Social Media night at Busch, and in my other capacity as a Cardinal blogger I'm going.  There is a panel discussion scheduled, including some of the local press writers covering the team.  I will not be on the panel, which is probably good.

As a result, there won't be much (if any) content on this here blog before the weekend ends.  However, come Monday I should have a summary post up on the weeks activities somewhere.

It gets harder from here

Let's start with some good news:

- After losing 10 straight, the Padres went 4-3.  Improvement, baby!
- Tim Stauffer looks legit, and with Wade LeBlanc/Kevin Correia struggling the Padres rotation needed a lift.  We really needed you Tim.  Nice job.
- The strike 'em out, throw 'em out to end Saturday's game was ridiculous.  That was exciting.
- Bud Black finally dropped Ryan Ludwick down in the order.  I'm probably the biggest Ryan Ludwick fan in San Diego, but it's about time.  Ludwick has been killing us.
- San Diego is still in first.
- They are headed to Colorado.  If there's a tonic for a struggling offense, it's Coors Field.
- I'm going to appear on the I-70 baseball Podcast tonight about 8:15 local time.  This is a Cardinals/Royals focused production, but since San Diego will be in St Louis the end of this week, I was invited.  Should be interesting.  I'm expecting lots of questions on the 'collapse'.
- I did something very rash this week:

Yes that is a bet on the Padres WINNING the World Series.  It might be throwing money away, but what the heck.  I'll cut 10 sodas out of my diet.

Now the bad news.

- Padres still aren't hitting.  They scored 3 meaningful runs this weekend against San Francisco in 4 games.  Ludwick's HR on Thursday night was nice, but cosmetic as the Padres were down 6 when he hit it.
- The brutal September continues.  Now in a virtual tie for first, with Colorado only a game and a half behind both us and the Giants, we travel to Denver.  Colorado has won TEN STRAIGHT at the moment, and are 11-4 this season against San Diego.
- Then they get to play in St Louis.  San Diego is 7-26 in St Louis since 2000, and have lost 9 in a row there.

Hope springs eternal, but reality is starting to smother hope.  Today ESPN projected the Padres have a 48.8% chance of making the playoffs.  Unless they snap out of their funk starting today they might be out of the playoff hunt eintirely by next Sunday.

Sweep

Four consecutive series sweeps.  At least this one went the Padres way.  This marks the first time San Diego has swept LA here since June 2007 (June 5-7 2007, to be exact).

It could not come at a better time.  Coming off the long losing streak, San Diego needed a shot of confidence.  They've gotten it.  Coupled with San Francisco losing to Arizona, last night's win marked the first time since 25 August the Padres have gained ground in the division.  Also quite nice.

Cory Luebke?  I think this is more what the Padres expected when they promoted him last week.  We all were concerned when he gave up 2 long HR in that game vs. Colorado, but I liked the fact he settled down and retired the last 11 hitters he faced.  Luebke seemed to find himself after the Tulowitzki HR, and he carried that into Wednesday's game.  He's probably earned himself another start, next Monday in Colorado.  I'm sure he'd like to face those guys again.

Ryan Ludwick sat last night, a move that was long overdue.  I think he would be well served to sit tonight too; one more change to regroup before hitting it again on Friday.

Big series tonight - I don't need to tell you that.  It looks more and more likely I'll be at tonight's game.  There won't be a Podcast tonight if I'm at the ballpark, but I will tweet periodically throughout the game here.  Feel free to respond and participate.  And oh if you're going to tonight's game too let me know - maybe we'll meet for a beer or something.

Two straight

This just in:  Mat Latos is good.  Just for fun, let's compare his strikeouts per nine inning ratio to other notable National League pitchers (not including games on 7 Sept):

• Lincecum - 9.5
• Latos - 9.3
• Jimenez - 8.4
• Wainwright - 8.3
• Halladay - 8.0
• Carpenter - 6.9

A question on the Padres post-game show last night that Scanlon answered asked if Latos should be included in conversations on the NL Cy Young.  Absolutely.  That comparison above is just a sampler of how good Latos has been in 2010.

I thought Bud Black really rolled the dice bringing Mike Adams in to start the eighth inning, given the high leverage 5 outs Adams got Monday night.  Adams was not up to the task.  Black decided to bring Heath Bell in for a 5-out save.  Considering the Dodgers had the tying run on second with one out in the inning, and that Bell hadn't pitched since 27 August before last night, I thought it absolutely the right move.  Bell striking out 4 and getting the save was gravy.

The only downside?  I suspect both Adams and Bell will not be available today.  San Diego has assured itself of at least a tie for first place going into the Giant series.  I would think having both those pitchers ready for Thursday's game is more important than running them back out there Wednesday.  Besides, everyone else (less Tim Stauffer) should be available to back up Luebke.

Padres go for the sweep today.  Is it too early to talk magic numbers?  Yes it is.  Let's save that discussion until after the weekend series with San Francisco.

Why hit Hundley eighth?

I'm KILLING the ball right now!

One of the recurring themes of this season is a lack of offense.  Or at least a lack of consistent offense.  The other more recent theme (that, mercifully, has been laid to rest) is the 10-game skid and various people ('fans') screaming "The Padres are falling straight out of first place and through the center of the earth!  AAAAA!"

Talk about getting all worked up over a small sample size.  But speaking of a small sample size, last night Nick Hundley hit his second HR of the homestand . . . from the 8-hole.  Which begs the question:  Why is Hundley hitting eighth?

To start the argument, here are the offensive numbers for the main Padre hitters since the start of the losing streak (August 26 thru last night):

• Hundley:  .375/.375/.792, 2 HR (24 PA)
• Denorfia:  .214/.290/.321, 0 HR (31 PA)
• Eckstein:  .184/.256/.184, 0 HR (44 PA)
• Ludwick:  .200/.256/.225, 0 HR (43 PA)
• Gonzalez:  .385/.467/.538, 1 HR (45 PA)
• Tejada:    .214/.233/.429, 3 HR (43 PA)
• Headley:  .175/.233/.225, 0 HR (43 PA)
• Venable:  .059/.059/.059, 0 HR (34 PA)
• Torrealba:  .235/.316/.412, 1 HR (19 PA)

One expects to see a lot of lousy averages after losing 10 of 11, and those numbers are truly horrible.  Other than Adrian Gonzalez, Hundley has been the best hitter on the club over that stretch, yet he and Yorvit are splitting time behind the plate, and he is hitting low in the order.

Based on these numbers, I would rearrange the lineup thusly.

1. Chris Denorfia
2. Ryan Ludwick
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Nick Hundley
5. Miguel Tejada
6. David Eckstein
7. Chase Headley
8. Pitcher's spot
9. Will Venable

Gonzalez and Hundley lead the team in OBP right now.  Neither one is a guy you want hitting leadoff based on their speed and/or their power.  So it defaults to the #3 guy right now, Denorfia.  Ludwick has better power potential than Eckstein.  Personally I like him hitting #2; he thrived there with the Cardinals, and it puts him in front of a marquee hitter again in Gonzo.  Gonzalez returns to his customary #3 hole, Hundley is #4 because he's hot.  Tejada hits fifth, again because of power potential over the rest of the candidates.  Eckstein has the highest remaining OBP, so he's sixth, followed by Headley.  Venable is struggling so bad the Padre pitchers are more of a threat right now, so they hit eighth and Will slides into the ninth slot.

That's a major shake-up.  This team hasn't scored more than 5 runs in 10 games, and their last 5-run outburst came well after that game was decided.  If that proposed lineup makes you uncomfortable, fine; let's go with this one:

1. Denorfia
2. Eckstein
3. Gonzalez
4. Hundley
5. Tejada
6. Headley
7. Ludwick
8. Pitcher's spot
9. Venable

Moves Gonzo back to #3, Hundley to #4, Pitcher to #8, and Ludwick/Venable down to #7 and #9, respectively.  A little less radical, but still moves people around based on how they're doing right now.

Again, we have to be careful with small sample sizes - they can be very misleading.  However, Nick Hundley is such a 'shimmering star in the [Padre offensive] firmament' at this moment in history he should not be hitting 8th UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.

Move him up, Mr. Black.

Enjoy the Silence

At last we don't have to listen to any more talk about the stupid losing streak.  Finally.

There is still a long road to hoe.  Bud Black pretty much burned his bullpen tonight.  Mujica a third of an inning, Thatcher 2/3, Webb an inning, Gregerson a third, Adams 1 and 2/3, Bell an inning.  Not to mention Stauffer's 4 innings in the emergency start tonight for Mat Latos.  At least Latos should be well enough to pitch tomorrow night, and Kevin Correia/Wade LeBlanc will be available to relieve if needed.

Figure Stauffer and Adams are out for tomorrow.

But in any case, enjoy the silence. (DINGgggggggggggggg!)

Enough

Let's keep this short.  It is, after all, a Federal Holiday and we all have barbeques to attend, beer to drink, and baseball to watch (and perhaps, a football fantasy draft to complete).

I'm not going to panic because the Padres have lost ten straight.  I'm going to get pissed off.  There's NO WAY the team that has stumbled through the last 10 games is the true talent level for this group, not after they went 76-49 over the first 125.  If you find yourself jumping off the Padre bandwagon because of the last 10 games good riddance.  Don't let the pavement give you too much of a road rash when you hit it at 40 miles an hour, because I'm driving and I'm accelerating.

Get pissed, Padres.  You're not this bad, not even close.  Stop pressing.  Stop blaming others for what happened.  Stop suggesting MLB has it in for you because you're a small market.  Stop trying to hit 3-run HRs with no one on base.  Get back to what got you here - long at bats, aggressive baserunning, good pitching in the rotation and out of the bullpen.

Believe you can do it.  You did it for the first 125 games, why in the world would you let a two-week funk invalidate all that effort and change your mindset?

Here's what's going to happen.  After you take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers - and you will take 2 of three from the Dodgers - we're going to smack the Giants in the mouth.  They can't beat us, haven't all year.  They aren't going to beat us this weekend either.

Go put on Green Day, or Depeche Mode, or Eminem, or Beethoven's Ninth Symphony, or whatever music you need to get the blood running.  Go call your mother.  Go take an enormous dump.  Go light a candle at your preferred house of worship.  Whatever you need to do to clear your system and reset yourself.

Then go stretch and have a good session in the cage.  Then put a hurt on the Dodgers.

Enough is enough.

Nine Straight

I said the series against Philadelphia, at Arizona, and Colorado would be harder than the 17 of 20 games on the road.  I didn't expect the Padres to lose 8 of those 9 games with one to go Sunday.

This is the franchise's longest losing streak since losing 9 straight in 2003 (May 14-23).  The last time they lost 10 straight, it didn't stop until they'd lost 14 in a row (May 8-21, 1994).

A point of order.  Cory Luebke pitched well, or as well as could be expected for a rookie starting a September game in a pennant race for a team on a 7-game losing streak.  Yes he gave up two long bombs in the game.  Remember, though, after the Troy Tulowitzki HR he retired the last 9 batters he faced.  I'd be a lot more concerned if he'd retired 9 in a row to start the game, then got lit up by the Rockies.  Coming back and making the adjustment is the mark of a good pitcher.  I'm not worried.

That said I would be a lot happier today if the Padres had completed the comeback against Colorado.  Jason Giambi's play on Chase Headley was a killer.  Will Venable not being able to drive the runs in hurt.  Ryan Ludwick being caught looking to end the seventh hurt, although I sympathize with Ludwick.  It certainly looked like the 2-2 pitch called strike three was in the same location as the first pitch of the at bat, which was called a ball.

Today's game?  Well Garland couldn't get out of an inning unscathed.  All the runs he allowed were after two out (and nobody on).  When you're going bad, things like Cabrera bobbling the inning ending ground ball happen - just like Giambi's great play the night before.  Padres fought back again and fell short again.

Tomorrow the Padres get Jorge De La Rosa.  The Rockies have not lost a game he started in Petco (2-0).

Help us, Clayton Richard - you're our only hope.

Season Ticket Holder Night

I had hoped to have this up much earlier, seeing as I had the day off.  Unfortunately I was informed by the missus we were table shopping today.  Which lasted from 0930-1600.  So much for that.

In the interim some dude using Axiom as his handle did a post for Gaslamp Ball which, well, is a real good summary of the nights events.  You can read it here.  There are some minor errors, but seeing as the guy did that post from memory let's not quibble.  Well done, sir.

So instead, let me inundate you with photos and a couple of stories.

Jerry Coleman still looks awesome, doesn't he?

Jed Hoyer at the microphone.  Good seats, but no zoom on the ol' iPhone.

I took photos like this of Jeff Moorad, Tom Garfinkel, and Jarrod Dillon (VP of ticket sales and service), but do you really need more photos of a couple of guys you can't really make out?  Really?  Email me and I'll send them to you.

say 'Cheese' REAL LOUD!!!

Okay, so after all the speeches and discussion we were herded onto the field for the photo.  There was an interlocking 'SD' outlined in blue/white strand line, with a yellow border around it.  We all stood patiently waiting for the signal to raise the banners we'd been handed on our way in.  The Padres staff had told us the picture would be taken from the top of the stadium, and they weren't kidding.  If you look CLOSELY right below the arrow you'll see a Padre staff member standing at the top of the aisle.  Just to his left is the camera.  I didn't know the camera was actually to the left until the flash went off.

As an aside, I would hope the Padres hired a professional photographer for this memento.  Mr Photo-expert-guy - you do realize a flash at that distance is completely useless, right?  Unless you're trying to illuminate the bannister of the aisle just below you to get a good picture of it, that flash had absolutely no effect on the quality of the photo you shot.  Just sayin'.

Here are some more shots from the OF grass during the photo shoot.

Okay, some anxiety is in order

Well getting swept in Arizona was not in the forecast.

As predicted, Ian Kennedy pitched worse this week than last week, allowing 3 whole runs.  And Kevin Correia, believe it or not, did pitch better, but he still couldn't get out of the fifth inning, and allowed 6 ER this time too.  Improvement, yes, but not enough.  Padres lost 7-4.

Oh, it is so frustrating to see the little Padre miscues come back to haunt them.  Walk to Ian Kennedy leading off the fifth inning Wednesday night opened the door to 5 runs.  The botched double play ball last night in the seventh opened the door to 4 runs.  San Diego, struggling for offense all year, has thrived while doing a high wire act, supported by the best pitching staff in the league and superior defense.  When either of those two legs of the triad falter this team will struggle.  As we have seen over the last week, that's what's happening.

Losing seven in a row is tough.  San Diego's September schedule is tough - they only have 4 games remaining with teams below .500.  San Diego will play 17 of their remaining 30 games at home, so they've at least got that going for them.

It doesn't seem like a good time to throw one of the organization's prized arms into the mix, but the Padres are starting Cory Luebke tomorrow night.  He'll oppose the Rockies' Aaron Cook.  Luebke started this season in AA and was promoted to AAA Portland on 15 July.  His statistics for the 2010 campaign:

• San Antonio (Texas League) - 8 starts, 5-1 record, 0.941 WHIP, 3.67:1 K:BB ratio
• Portland (PCL) - 9 starts, 5-0 record, 1.023 WHIP, 2.59:1 K:BB ratio.

According to what I've read, both those leagues are hitters leagues.  Assuming that's actually true, Luebke's numbers are really impressive.  If he can translate that to the big stage look out.  I just hope he doesn't get over-excited given it's both his ML debut and how badly the Padres need to win that game.

Today is a much needed day off.  A chance to clear heads and re-attack tomorrow starting with Colorado.  Tonight there is a season-ticket holder event at Petco starting at 1800.  I'll be there.  If anything interersting happens or is said, I'll get it up to my twitter account.

The Padres Trail Podcast returns tonight.  There's a lot to talk about.

It's STILL not time to panic

Sometimes I wonder if anyone reads this blog.  Since no one hazarded a guess on my quiz from Friday, apparently the answer is 'no'.  Bummer.  Either I'll put out the answer after I get a guess, or I'll discuss it on Thursday.

But, since I'm quite clearly writing this blog purely for my own amusement, I can say pretty much whatever I want, right?

Well at least within accepted standards of good taste and decorum.  Except for the quiz post from last week.

Anywho, the Padres are in a bit of a funk right now, aren't they?  Five runs scored in 4 games.  For the first time this season, every member of the rotation has lost a game in succession (and yes, I realize Latos got a no decision on Friday).  If you're a #padres twitter follower, not only did you see a lot of bile and anxiety from Padres fans post-game last night, but a lot of yukking from those small pathetic mortals who call the Giants and Rockies their team of choice.

Like I did earlier this month, I say again (with emphasis this time because I love you):  IT'S NOT TIME TO PANIC.  STILL.

Note that even with a 5-game losing streak in progress, the Padres still sit 6 games ahead of San Francisco on the loss side.  San Diego will play at least .500 ball the rest of the way, meaning the Giants will have to go 22-8.  You know, .733 ball?  Now they have played that well for a stretch this season, but that was before Jonathan Sanchez forgot how to get people out in successive games, and before Tim Lincecum forgot how to get people out at all.  Not worried.

Colorado has to be better - 23-7 (.766 ball) - to catch up.  They haven't played that well all year.  LA?  24-6 (.750 ball).  They haven't played that well all year.  AZ is already out.

Now, I'm not saying this is not a difficult stretch for the Padres.  As I pointed out on Baseball Digest (you like the shot of Bud Black's ear?  I can't figure out the photo settings over there.  Yeah I suck) this is a critical week.  In many ways, the 9 games starting with Philadelphia last Friday through Sunday's final game with Colorado are more difficult than the 17 road games in 21 days.  Philadelphia is now 18-4 all time in Petco.  Arizona has won 2 of every 3 games played against the Padres in Phoenix.  Colorado has won 8 of 12 meetings with the 2010 Padres.  There is cause for concern.  There's just no reason to panic yet.

So who will snap the Padres out of the funk?  Here's the records for our starters following a loss:

1. Chris Young (1-0).  He's probably not going to snap the funk.
2. Bullpen (10-2).  I didn't track who started these 12 games, but they pitched well enough to keep the game close.
3. Mat Latos (7-2).  The best starter on the staff for a reason.
4. Clayton Richard (5-3).  Not to shabby.
5. Jon Garland (6-4).  Winning 60% of the games started following a loss?  I'll take it.
6. Kevin Correia (3-3).  Considering how bad he was in May/June, this is a pleasant surprise.
7. Wade LeBlanc (1-6).  Another data point highlighting LeBlanc's struggles.

Correia goes tonight.  He won't pitch as badly as he did last Thursday, and I'll bet real money Kennedy won't throw a one-hitter for 7.  HERE ENDETH THE LOSING STREAK.

Remaining Latos starts, and a fun Quiz

Had a great podcast Thursday night.  Thanks to all those folks filling the chat room with commentary.  I had a caller - first one I've had in over a month (ballgirl hasn't called in a while, although she did chat us up last night).  Unfortunately for me, the caller broke into Spanish, and I'm probably the only guy in South Bay that doesn't understand Spanish.  Not sure what to do, I ended up cutting his mike.  Sorry dude.  Maybe I should have asked him to switch to English first.

At any rate, the whole show is worth a listen.

I did want to elaborate, or at least mention, one of the discussion points that came up, and that's the number of starts Mat Latos has left this season.  As you no doubt are aware, Latos started the season with a 150 inning ceiling on his arm.  As the year progressed, and Latos matured into the best starting pitcher on the club, that ceiling was raised to 150-180 innings.  After leaving the game tonight, he's thrown 149 2/3, and his start tonight was after he was pushed off his normal start date of Tuesday night.

So what's the season got left for him? (As an aside, Mark Grant/Mark Neely discussed this during the game.  Grant thinks Latos has 7 starts left)

• 1 Sept @ Arizona.  Since Garland is behind him in the rotation, I could definitely see Bud Black sending Garland on short rest and skipping Latos, since 2 Sept is an off-day.  No Start
• 6 Sept vs LA.  Will be 10 days between starts.  He might start earlier in the week against Colorado.  Start
• 11 Sept vs SF.  Latos has owned the Giants this season.  Start
• 16 Sept at STL.  Here we get into the 'it might depend on what the standings are' final two weeks.  If the Padres maintain their current advantage over San Francisco, the magic number for this game would be 9.  I'm thinking the Padres probably start him.  Start
• 21 Sept at LA.  This is the day after an off-day, so a good date to skip Latos if desired.  And it's probably desired.  No Start
• 26 Sept vs CIN.  Probably his last start of the regular season.  If all stays as is right now, this will be the game the Padres clinch the division.  Start
• 1 Oct at SF.  Unless they need to win this game in order to fight off the Giants, there's no way Latos pitches.  No Start

So I can see Latos making 4 more starts this season.  There has been talk about spot starts in September, for Stauffer or perhaps Luebke, which makes this plan all the more probable.  6 innings in 4 starts would be 24 innings, and put Latos at 173 innings headed into the post-season.

I'm also willing to bet Latos will start one game in each round if the Padres get all the way to the World Series.  So figure he'll top out at about 200 innings this season.  I just can't see SD shutting him down if they are making a deep run into October.

Finally for your weekend viewing pleasure, after the jump we have a riddle.  Using the pictures (one NSFW) as your only hints, what is the line score at this point in the game.  Leave your guess in the comments.  Answer Monday.

Beating the teams you should beat

One of the marks of a good team is how it fares against sub-standard competition.  Of course, sub-standard is a relative term; all ML teams consist of major league talent, the elite of the baseball players available.  Some teams have less success than others.  Heck somebody has got to lose these games, right?

As the Padres are a very good team, how have they done against the teams they're supposed to beat?  For the purposes of this discussion, teams they're supposed to beat are .500 or worse as of today.

• Arizona - 10-4 (including 8-0 at home)
• Baltimore - 2-1
• Cubs - 4-0
• Houston - 5-2
• Milwaukee - 4-3
• Mets - 3-3
• Pittsburgh - 6-0
• Seattle - 4-2
• Washington - 3-3

That's (does higher math) 41-18 against the second division.  Good news.

But it does mean they're 35-31 against the good teams.  And that's fine, too; the good teams are good for a reason.

Here's an interesting look at the schedule.  Our Padres have but 8 games left against sub-.500 teams (4 with Arizona, 4 with the Cubs).  The remaining 28 games are against top-tier competition (the Rockies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, Reds of the world).  On the one hand they may play .500 ball the rest of the way.

On the other hand, they will be recently battle tested once the playoffs roll around.  That can't help but be a good thing.

Podcast tonight at 2200, following the Burn Notice Season Finale.  See you then.

Now IS the time to exult

My latest Baseball Digest post is up for your reading pleasure.  As in previous weeks, it's focused on looking at this week's worth of home games against Arizona and Philadelphia.  This post is more pointed at what just happened.

I think all of us were a little nervous going into August, and it wasn't just because the Giants were surging.  The schedulers had set the Padres up to spend the first three weeks of August on an extended road trip.  The three home games with Pittsburgh were nice, but essentially they were just another city to stop in for a series before moving on.  With 17 road games in 21 days, although publically all of us thought 'these are the 2010 Padres, they'll find a way', privately many of us thought 'I wouldn't be surprised to arrive on 24 August in second place, looking up at San Francisco'.  And when they started this stretch off with a 3-4 trip to Arizona (which as we talked about back on 9 August wasn't that bad), some folks started jumping off the bandwagon.

Then the Padres got hot.  White Hot.  Like the SUN!

Sweep of the Pirates.  Winning 2 of three tense games in Frisco (which would have been a sweep if they could have gotten a hit with RISP on 8/14).  First 4-game sweep ever in Chicago.  Then a minor let down in Milwaukee, winning only on Sunday.  But you put it all together, and over this 21 day run the club went 13-7.  That's only .650 ball, folks.  This just in:  The 2010 Padres are GOOD.

Never in my wierdest dreams did I think the Padres would leave San Diego with a 2.5 game lead, and return with a 5.5 game bulge (SF pounded Cincinnati last night to cut a 1/2 game off the deficit).

Now we will play 16 of 19 in Petco.  Starting off this extended homestand is 3 against a team we've owned at home this season, and 3 against a team that's won 15 of the 19 games they've played downtown.

If you haven't got pennant fever, hang out at my house for a while - it's contagious, and you'll be infected before long.  Or you might get Bronchitis.  There are no guarantees in life, people.

Just so this post has some statistical content, here's an update on the offensive performance of our two trade deadline acquisitions:

Miguel Tejada - 21 games, 96 PA, .276/.344/.391, 1 HR.  Tejada has improved his hitting across the board since being acquired July 29th.  He still isn't showing much HR power, but he has injected some life into the offense.

Ryan Ludwick - 21 games, 88 PA, .237/.318/.408, 3 HR.  Ludwick had a great home series against Pittsburgh, but other than that he's struggled.  Opposing pitchers seem to have found two weaknesses in his game at the plate - sliders off the corner away, and high fastballs.  Ludwick, if the Milwaukee series is any indication, can't lay off either.  Everybody struggles from time to time at the plate, but Ludwick will start facing 'he can't hit without Albert Pujols behind him' questions more frequently until he snaps out of his current funk.

Padres have 39 games left.  Going 20-19 the rest of the way wins them 94 games.  San Francisco would have to go 24-12 to catch them.  Colorado needs to finish 30-8, LA 31-6, and AZ can't catch them even if they win all their remaining games.

Now is not the time to Panic

There's been some talk about how the Padres are slumping right now, at least over their last 10 games (4-6).  Granted, their record would make one think that.  But let's look at this objectively.

• Padres came off an emotional series against the Dodgers and dropped 2 of 3 to Florida.  Florida historically has succeeded in Petco (the Marlins had won 9 of their last 12 games in San Diego entering the series), and threw three of their best pitchers.  Padres managed to beat their ace (Josh Johnson) but lost the other two.
• Padres then head to LA to play those Dodgers again.  Despite being shut out for 17+ innings they come away with a split.
• Padres finish off the road trip in Arizona, where they've lost 2 of every 3 games they've played.  Again they lose 2 of 3.

Is the Padre offense in a minor funk?  Yes, but no more so then they've endured all season.  They did score 10 runs in two different games on the recent road trip.  Have their trade deadline acquisitions not had much of an impact yet?  Yes, that's true; Ludwick and Tejada are a combined 13 for 65 (.200) with one HR between them (Tejada); Ludwick didn't get his first extra base hit as a Padre until Saturday.  But not a cause to panic yet.

Perhaps their recent 4-6 record is due to facing some tough pitching and playing in two parks where they have historically struggled (San Diego is 27-34 since 2004 in LA, 159-194 all-time).  They still have the best record in the NL, and they still enjoy a 2 game lead on the Giants.

So don't panic.

Now if the Padres lose this series to Pittsburgh...

Raging Arizona

When the team is struggling, the last place they want to go is the one place they always struggle.  So here we go again in Arizona.  In case you weren't aware, San Diego has lost two of every 3 games they have played in the Desert.  Losing 2-1 last night didn't surprise me at all, even though Jon Garland again threw well, and even though Arizona sent a rookie to the hill.

With Richard taking the hill against Rodrigo Lopez, and Latos tomorrow against Joe Saunders, the pitching match-ups still favor the Padres.  They can win this series.  In a year where they've defied all conventional wisdom, winning a series in Arizona would be par for the course.

Just because it's Saturday, and this is a quick-hitter, how have our two trade deadline acquisitions fared so far (WARNING:  SMALL SAMPLE SIZE)

Tejada:  8 games, 34 PA, 6 for 32, 2B, HR, 2 SO, .188/.235/.313 (with Baltimore:  .269/.308/.362).  Struggling a bit.  It seems that every time I watch Tejada hit he gets jammed.  He must lead the world in pop-ups.

Ludwick:  6 games, 22 PA, 4 for 19, 0 XBH, 5 SO, .211/.318/.211 (with St Louis:  .281/.343/.418).  Also struggling a bit.  Ludwick spent most of this season hitting in front of Albert Pujols.  Did that inflate his numbers?  I sure hope not.

May be a quiet rest of the weekend from here - reunions and adult baseball are on the docket.

Sometimes you get the bear...

...and sometimes the bear gets you.  When the Padres smacked LA around the Ravine 10-5 on Monday I briefly entertained thoughts of a sweep.  How great would that have been?  Dodgers effectively buried for 2010.  Things didn't work out that way, and we go into tonight's game hoping for a split of the four game series.

Let's put this in perspective.  LA and SD have played 6 games over the last week and are 3-3.  The Dodgers are no closer to first place today than they were last Wednesday (7 back). Before these 7-games-in-10-days started, I thought it realistic that San Diego could win four of the seven games (2 of 3 at home, split in LA).  They can still do that.

Also, it's tough to beat a team when:

• You don't score a run for 17 consecutive innings (still active), and
• You don't get a hit for 14 1/3 innings (from Tejada's first inning HR Tuesday to Ludwick's single in the sixth last night).

I don't know what it is about Dodger pitching that causes Padre bats to turn into wet noodles, but they held the Friars scoreless for 31 innings earlier this season and here we go again.

San Diego has a tough task today, seeing as Chad Billingsley hasn't allowed a run to San Diego over his last 13 2/3 innings pitched.  In contrast, Kevin Correia has allowed 4 ER in both his 2010 starts against the Dodgers.

Podcast tonight at 10pm Pacific.  Padres leave LA and head to that other house of horrors next (Arizona).

Ryan Ludwick? Really?

The Padres have made another trade today, acquiring Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals and sending two minor league players to Cleveland.  St Louis gets Indian pitcher Jake Westbrook.

I think we all know our outfield hasn't exactly lit the lamp with the bat this year.  Scott Hairston and Will Venable have been league average hitters; Tony Gwynn Jr OPS+ hovers at 82.  Ludwick addresses that need in a big way.  His OPS+ is 120; he'll be the best offensive outfielder on the club as soon as he's assigned a number.

My concern for the Padres, in making trades, was that they not upset their run prevention model.  That is why I am not completely sold on the Miguel Tejada deal.  I have no such reservations with this move.  Ludwick is enjoying his best defensive year (based on Dewan plus/minus; he is +5 defensively), which immediately makes him the second-best outfielder on the club behind Gwynn.  He can also play all three positions defensively, giving Bud Black tons of flexibility with the roster.

Ludwick became expendable in St Louis with the stellar play of Jon Jay.  Ludwick is making $5.45M this season, is arbitration eligible for the 2011 campaign, and becomes a free-agent in 2012.  It might be hard to believe, but the Cardinals dumped salary with this move. I don't know if this is a two-month rental or if the Padres will try to keep him for 2011.  The cynic in me says this is a 2-month rental.

No matter.  THIS is the bat the Padres needed to get, and THIS is the defender they need to bring in with that bat.  Great move by the Padres.

Welcome to San Diego, Ryan Ludwick.  You will like it here.

Intentionally walking Russell Martin

In real time I liked Bud Black's decision.  Let us take a deeper look.

To reset the situation:  top of the seventh inning of a scoreless game.  Jon Garland had retired the first two hitters, and was ahead of Blake DeWitt 0-2.  DeWitt singled softly to right.  Garrett Anderson, on the next pitch, singled through the hole between first and second, DeWitt to third.  Russell Martin is the next hitter, and pitcher Chad Billingsley is on deck.  Joe Thatcher is warm in the bullpen.  Garland had thrown 97 pitches.

What should Black do?  Martin is 4-11 (including a 1-2 in this game) with a walk and hit batsman against Garland career, and 1-4 with a hit batsman against Thatcher.  But looming on deck is Billingsley, who has retired 9 of the last 10 Padres he's faced, the lone exception being Yorvit Torrealba who he hit in the ribs with a fastball.

Black decides to walk Martin intentionally to force Torre's hand.  Torre says "OK", and sends Andre Ethier up to pinch hit.  Now Black could bring Thatcher in, but he decides to stay with Garland.  Just for argument's sake:

Ethier vs Garland:  3-8, 1 double, 1 walk.
Ethier vs Thatcher:  2-8, both doubles.

Of course, if Garland retires Ethier, this blog post isn't written and the game might have been different.  Actually they might still be playing.  But instead, Ethier takes a 1-1 pitch and hits a ground ball just out of Everth Cabrera's reach, driving in 2 runs and as it turns out winning the game.

There are many, many folks who despise the intentional walk in any situation.  I think there are times when the intentional walk is appropriate, and should be used.  To get past a hot hitter or a  good hitter, for instance.  Martin isn't hitting any better since the All-Star break than he did the first part of the season (.245/.346/.332 before, .269/.345/.346 since), so I definitely would not classify him as hot and, based on how he's hit since the end of the 2008 season, not a good hitter either.  There's a reason he's hitting eighth.

In hindsight, I don't like Bud Black's decision.  I think I pitch to Russell Martin.  I recognize that statement doesn't carry much weight since we know what the result of not pitching to him was.

Padres Acquire Nick Green

My God.  Has it really been two weeks?

Yes, it's the final Fiscal Year budget push.  I've been a little distracted by, you know, doing the things I'm SUPPOSED to be doing vice doing the things I want to do.  Sorry about that.

Since last seen, there's been two podcasts, and two Padres Recaps done.  So there's been some activity, just not much.  Since the last post, San Diego swept the Diamondbacks, lost 2 of three to Atlanta, and swept Pittsburgh.  Now they prepare for a six-game homestand with LA and Florida.  Let's hope the trend doesn't continue (which would mean they lose 2 of 3 to LA).  Although sweeping Florida would be OK.

Other than the normal comings and goings of the DL (Latos on, then off; Adams on; Eckstein on; Venable off), the Padres signed two interesting players.  On 19 July they signed Willy Mo Pena.  Saturday they signed Nick Green.

Willy Mo Pena.  Sounds like a country music star.  When he played for the Red Sox in 2006, it was said he hit the ball harder than anyone else on the roster - and that team boasted Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz, two guys who can really hit.  It's an interesting signing.  Pena hasn't appeared in a game at the Major League level since 2008 with the Nationals, so it's completely risk-free.  Pena has power, but doesn't hit for average.  His career OPS+ is only 94, and he's struck out in 1/3 of his total at-bats at the major league level.  Not only that, but he's a liability with the glove, at least based on Fangraphs data.

On it's a face, this is an all upside move for a guy with a ton of power.  Realistically, he may surrender as many runs as he produces if he plays the outfield with regularity.  I do like the move - it's creative, it's low risk - but I don't think we'll see Willy Mo Pena on the club before September if he's able to play himself into a roster spot.

Saturday the Padres signed Nick Green to a minor-league contract.  San Diego has had a lot of injury trouble in the middle infield, and the aforementioned Eckstein is once again on the DL.  Jerry Hairston Jr has been servicable - 89 OPS+, plus defender around the infield wherever he has played (3 runs saved at second, 5 at short, according to Dewan), but the guy manning the other position has not brought much offense to the team.  Everth Cabrera - 59 OPS+.  Lance Zawadzki - 61 and Oscar Salazar - 78.  So there's a need for help in the middle infield.

Green is a decent defender - he saved 2 runs in limited action this year, and although his defense allowed 3 runs in 2009, that was the only season where he was not evaluated as a plus defender.  Green's bat, however, is nothing special, and is no better than Cabrera or Zawadzki (.236/.305/.348 career in 1131 plate appearances).

The Padres are being creative in trying to improve, and that's a good thing.  Each player offers something, be it a little better defense at second, or a little more dangerous bat in the outfield, with some risk (bad bat, below average glove). 

The Fabulous Floating Podcast

I'm in New England this week on business, so the Podcast will start at 7:30 Pacific Time THIS WEEK ONLY.

I'll primarily be discussing the All-Star Game and some prognostications for the second half.  I figured no one wanted to hear me trying to be coherent at 1 AM my local time - it would be funny, but probably wouldn't make for good radio.

See you then? Yes - see you then.

Home Field

Finally.  The NL wins again.

I only have three things to say:

1. Thank God someone else's team boasts the loser.  After being saddled with three losses in the last 4 games, I had my fingers crossed.
2. Home Field will mean more to the NL than the AL.  The top two home records at the break (Atlanta, Mets) are NL teams.  San Diego's home record is a not-too-shabby 27-19, and this team is built for this ballpark. It would be all kinds of awesome for the Padres to make the World Series, and host 4 of the 7 games.  Heck, they might even win the thing.
3. Marlon Byrd should have been the MVP.  Brian McCann's double can't happen without Byrd's walk, and the AL has two on,one out, and a big ol' rally in progress without Byrd cutting down David Ortiz at second.

When will Latos take a break, and for how long?

I had an actual live caller and an actual participant in the chat room guest during last night's Podcast, which was all kinds of awesome.  Nothing like having more than one person to talk to to make a discussion flow better.  While we touched on a variety of topics (feel free to follow the above link to hear it all), the one I want to follow up on this morning is Mat Latos and his 'rest'.

To recap:  Padres GM Jed Hoyer is on record saying the team wants to cap Latos' innings pitched at 150 for 2010.

Interestingly, there is precedent for giving a young pitcher a break in the middle of the season.  Detroit promoted 20 year old phenom Rick Porcello to the majors last year.  They had the same concerns the Padres currently do about overworking this prized prospect too early in his career, so they did two things.  One, they limited his pitch count to less than 100 (which they stuck to until his 24th start on 28 August), and two, in an attempt to limit his innings they shut him down following his 5 July start for 15 days.  Because this break coincided with the All-Star break, Porcello ended up only missing one start.

Porcello's numbers pre and post break are interesting:

Back to back rallies fall just short

As was mentioned last night on the broadcast, the Padres have pretty much had their way with Washington since the team moved to DC.  Going into this series, San Diego had won 12 of the 15 games in our Nation's capital.  So some of what we're seeing this week is surprising, and some may be simply the Nationals were due to start winning at home against San Diego.

That said, it is frustrating to play the bottom team in the NL East and lose two in a row.  What's more frustrating it the way they have been losing.

San Diego has leapt into first place by preventing runs through superior defense and a lock-down bullpen.  The pitching model really works when the team turns over a lead to the Gregerson/Adams/Bell cohort. Since their 23 June game in Florida, however, they've shown a disturbing trend to get behind early.  See for yourself:

• 24 June (@ Tampa Bay):  Trailed 1-0 after one inning.  They came back with 3 in the second, but lost 5-3.
• 25 June (@ Florida):  Shutout (Win).
• 26 June (@ Florida):  Trailed 1-0 after 2 (came back to win).
• 27 June (@ Florida):  Scored first; game tied 2-2 after 7 (Win)
• 28 June (vs Colorado):  Trailed 2-0 after 1 (Loss).
• 29 June (vs Colorado):  Trailed 1-0 after 4 and 4-0 after 6 1/2 (Loss).
• 30 June (vs Colorado):  Scored first, tied 2-2 after 2 (Win).
• 1 July (vs Houston):  Trailed 3-0 after 1 (Loss).
• 2 July (vs Houston):  Shutout (Win).
• 3 July (vs Houston):  Shutout (Win).
• 4 July (vs Houston):  Trailed 1-0 after 1 (Win).
• 6 July (@ Washington):  Scored first, trailed 3-1 after 1 (Loss).
• 7 July (@ Washington):  Scored first, trailed 4-1 after 1 (Loss).

They've trailed early in 8 of their past 13 games, where early is defined as the fourth inning or before.  In 6 of those games they've given up at least a run in the first inning.  Additionally, in every game but the 3 shutouts the Padres have not held on to an early lead they got.

I know this is small sample size, being only 13 games and all.  I further realize the All-Star break starts after Sunday's games, which will give everyone a much-needed 3 days off.  But this trend seems - SEEMS - to indicate the pitching is starting to wear down a little bit.

Losing an early 2-run lead isn't that unusual in baseball, especially when teams average scoring around 4 runs a game.  I'd be much more worried if the Padres were blowing 4+ run leads (like the Cardinals have the last 2 nights in Colorado - thanks fellas).  It's the early runs allowed that's bothering me.  This team's offense simply isn't built to come from behind night after night.  Much like the US Men's National Soccer team (Hey! World Cup Reference!) , they don't have the firepower.

I'm quite sure Bud Black and Darren Balsley are scratching their heads and actively working on a solution to the first inning run problems.

Finally congratulations to Heath Bell on being added to the All-Star team.  He probably should have made the team out of the chute, but at least that wrong was addressed.

All Star Selections

First this was an amazing week.  Scott Hairston drove in 12 runs during the homestand.  Tony Gwynn Jr drove in a winning run, scored a winning run, and saved a run with a great catch, all in the Astro series.  Kevin Correia found his form, at least for one game.

And Mat Latos pitched, again, like an All-Star.

I try not to get too worked-up about the All Star roster.  Every team must be represented, so there are some artificial-ities inherent in the process.  Evan Meek is the only Pirate, and he's pitched well, so that's that.  I'm sure an argument could be made for either Luke Gregerson, Matt Adams, or Heath Bell over Arthur Rhodes, but I'm not going to make it today.

Even in my laid-back approach to the rosters, I cannot help but raise an eyebrow on 5 Cardinals making the roster but only 1 Padre.  Pujols and Molina got voted in, Holliday leads all NL outfielders in WAR according to this site, Adam Wainwright is one of the very best pitchers in baseball.  Chris Carpenter?  That's an interesting pick.

The Padres have the best pitching staff, statistically, in the league but do not have a pitcher on the roster.  Something seems amiss.  I submit Mat Latos deserved Chris Carpenter's spot.

To wit:

- Latos ERA:  2.62.  Carpenter:  3.16 (yes I know it was inflated by that gagger Saturday vs Milwaukee).
- Latos HR allowed:  9.  Carpenter:  14.
- Latos WHIP:  0.963 (lowest SP WHIP in NL).  Carpenter:  1.212
- Latos K/9:  8.2.  Carpenter:  7.9
- Latos K/BB ratio:  3.5.  Carpenter:  2.92
- Latos xFIP:  3.59.  Carpenter:   3.77
- Latos WAR:  1.8.  Carpenter:  1.4

I submit Mat Latos is better in every statistical category than Chris Carpenter.  Bud Black is an assistant coach for the NL - how is it Latos didn't get selected?

*Yes I'm aware of the irony that I suggested sending Latos down in April, only to argue he's an All-Star now.  Life is funny, isn't it?

Luis Suarez

I cannot imagine what it is like to stare down the end of your dream.  The end of something you have worked your whole life to try and achieve, and now you watch it unfold in front of you without a means to stop it.  What would you do?

ESPN shows replays of key moments in World Cup games from almost every possible angle.  Sometimes I half expect them to cut to the 'under the turf cam' to show us the pitch's perspective on a ball when struck.  Yet with all those camera angles, they have not yet put up a replay showing the foul which won Ghana the free kick in the 119th minute.  From my excellent perspective over half the world away it appeared the Ghanian player simply fell down.  Portuguese referee Olegario Benquerenca didn't see it that way, giving the Black Stars a chance to swing the ball in for a final shot on goal.

And swing it in they did.  Uruguayan goal Fernando Muslera went for the ball and missed.  A point blank shot found the legs of Suarez and bounced back into play.  Before one of five Uruguayan defenders could get to it, Dominic Adiyiah put a head on the ball and sent it towards the back of the net.

Urguay had fought for 120 minutes.  For large stretches of this game they were the better side, but in the last 10 minutes of extra time Ghana made a furious push to win.  Uruguay could have won the game in regulation if Muslera had not been badly fooled on a shot from Sulley Muntari on the final play of the FIRST half. In fairness, Ghanian keeper Kingson should have stopped Diego Forlan's free kick that equalized.  Now they were watching their dream slip away.

On the goal line, two Uruguayan players had set up shop: Jorge Fucile, and Luis Suarez.  Their job is to stop the ball.  As the header barreled towards them, it was headed between them.  It was too high to get a foot on and too far to get a head on.  In a final act of desperation, Suarez blocked the ball with his hands and Uruguay cleared it.  Touching the ball with a hand by anyone but the goalie is a major no-no.  Referee Benquerenca ejected Suarez from the game.

Why would Suarez commit a foul sure to send him off the field?  Because he didn't have any other option.  If the ball goes in, the game is lost.  If he blocks it with his hands, at least Ghana has to make a penalty shot to win.  He gives his keeper a chance to stop the shot.  It should be said that only about 22% of all penalty kicks are stopped by the goalkeeper.  So it comes down to a simple choice:  If I don't use my hands, we lose.  If I do use my hands, they get a penalty kick and we most likely lose.

I doubt very much Suarez processed that logical an argument in the split second he had to make a decision.  He wanted badly, desperately, hopelessly to keep that ball out of the net.  So he blocked the ball with the only weapon he had - an illegal one.

A lot will be written saying Suarez cheated.  If Asamoah Gyan had put his penalty shot in the back of the net instead of off the crossbar, none of those words are written.  But because Gyan missed the PK, everyone thinks Suarez stole this game from Ghana.  I don't think he did.  I think he just reacted to what he saw in front of him, driven by his fear of losing and his desire to win the game for his team and his country.

Only Suarez knows why he did what he did.  Before we vilify him, ask this question - if you were watching your dream die, what would you do?

As an aside, my wife played soccer through college.  She says she was always trained, in that situation, if using your hands was the only way to keep the ball out, do it; even though it also meant you would be sent off.

Padres/Rockies, 29 June - Notes

Last night was unused season ticket night at the old ballpark, so we had an excuse to go.  Not that we really need an excuse, we have season tickets.  Some thoughts on Tuesday's game:

1. A quiet groan could be heard when Tony Gwynn Jr was announced as the leadoff hitter.  Gwynn's OBP (.324) doesn't lend itself to this slot.  Here's an interesting tidbit:  It's actually third highest on the club, behind Adrian Gonzalez (.399), David Eckstein (.326), and Yorvit Torrealba (.338).  It would be awesome to hit the catcher leadoff, but I don't think Bud black is that progressive.
2. Chase Headley had a rough night at the plate.  He left 2 runners on in each of his first two at bats.  He would have hit into a double play in the sixth, but Scott Hairston's great take out slide broke it up.  Finally he was caught stealing in the eighth, although to be fair that looked like a blown hit and run.
3. I hate the contact play.  San Diego ran themselves out of a run in the third.  Clearly Scott Hairston gets pitched differently with a runner on third and two out instead of a runner on first and two out, so we cannot say he would have gotten the single anyway.  Why send the runner with the infield halfway in the third inning?  Gwynn Jr made a great slide, but he was out.  A little over-aggressive there, I think.
4. Gwynn Jr's RBI single in the seventh was foul.  We were sitting in Section 220 and had a great look at it.  The umpire hesitated on the call because Rockie LF Ryan Spilborghs blocked the ball with his body after he landed.  I think the ump decided the ball hit Spilborghs while Ryan was still in fair ground.  It didn't look that way to me.
5. Jerry Hairston Jr's HR would have been out even if the fan hadn't caught it; it bounces off the scoreboard and into the crowd.  That was one of two fine plays in the stands tonight (the other being the barehanded catch of a soft line drive just behind first base).
6. Yorvit struck out in the eighth and the catcher didn't hold the strike.  Why didn't Torrealba run to first?
7. The ball Carlos Gonzalez hit out was crushed.  Actually I'm glad the Rockies scored a few more runs, it would have been unjust for LeBlanc to lose 1-0 on that lone mistake.
8. Edward Mujica will hereafter be known as "Home Run Ed".  When he was announced, I unloaded a loud "NO!" into the air.  Someone behind me asked who I'd wanted to come in, Mike Adams?  I replied, "Anyone but Mujica.  Here comes a HR."  Of course the same guy told me I was to blame for the home run.  He was kidding, I think, but good God:  10 HR in 40 IP?  Perhaps Black needs to re-think his situational pitching.
9. The Padres blew a hit and run in the eighth that got Headley thrown out stealing.  The Rockies perfectly executed a hit and run in the ninth, which jump-started the inning and eventually led to 2 insurance runs.
10. Why did Beimel pitch to Gonzalez?  Because Gonzalez was 4 for 24 going into that at-bat.  4 for 25 afterwards.  Yes his groundout knocked in a run, but the Rockies were still ahead, and Belisle struck out Scott Hairston to end the threat.
11. The first six innings were played in 90 minutes.  The last 3?  Ninety minutes.  Eight pitching changes help make the game go a lot longer.

But at least, we all got free tacos.