LeBlanc to the Marlins

The Padres announced yesterday they had traded Wade LeBlanc to Miami for catcher John Baker.

About 2 months ago I talked about doing a series of stories on what I would do as the Padres GM.  As usual those posts never materialized, mostly because I suck at time management.  I may still get to them - I hope to get to them - but one topic is now off the table.  I had intended to discuss trading LeBlanc for a back-up catcher because that's about what I thought San Diego could get for him.  I can't prove it; I never documented it anywhere; but it's true nonetheless.

LeBlanc is one of thousands of guys who have utility in a major league organization but are never going to contribute much on a year-to-year basis.  That sounds like a knock on him, but it really isn't.  Wade LeBlanc's talent level is such that he successfully made it to the Majors and has thrown almost 300 ML innings over parts of 4 seasons.  He's in the top 1% of all people playing baseball.  The Elite.

The problem was his skill set was never going to get him out of the spot starter/possible long man role, nor get him off the shuttle from the big club to AAA.  In 2010, the lone season he spent most of his time in the majors, he made 25 starts, threw 146 innings, and struck out 110.  He also allowed a whopping 24 HR over those 146 innings, or a dinger every six innings.  In 54 career appearances (52 starts) he allowed 44 HR.  It was never a question of if Wade LeBlanc would allow a HR - it was a question of when.

By ERA+ he was below average every year less 2008 (103).  By Fangraphs WAR last season was the first one he didn't post a negative number (Baseball Reference is somewhat more forgiving, crediting him with 0.7/0.3/0.2 WAR each of the last 3 seasons).  With the Padres currently projecting a rotation of Latos/Luebke/Stauffer/Richard/Bass there was no room for him at the inn. (Ed. Note:  Dustin Moseley would also be a candidate for the rotation assuming he re-signs wtih the Padres.)

The Padres get John Baker in return.  He has 104 PA in the majors the last 2 seasons, and missed virtually all of 2011 while recoverng from right elbow surgery.  In 2009 he played in 112 games and posted a .271/.349/.410 line, good enough for a .333 wOBA and 99 wRC+.  He'll be 31 when this season starts.

San Diego had to do something to protect Hundley.  Rob Johnson was released, Kyle Phillips posted an OPS+ of 56 in thirty-six games, and Luis Martinez isn't ready.  As a back-up option, they could do worse.  Baker is also left-handed.  I can't imagine the Padres will platoon Hundley - that would really be dumb - but Baker will give them another left-handed option off the bench besides Mark Kotsay.

Wade LeBlanc will likely not be long remembered.  He was, however, a useful piece of the puzzle for the last 4 seasons, be it as a long reliever, a spot starter, or a regular starter due to injury.  If he becomes a mainstay in the Marlin rotation I would be the first one in line to congratulate him on his success.

Game Reflections - #127 vs Marlins

See? CLEARLY safe. (Kent C. Horner/Getty Images)

Managed to get out of the parking lot before the fireworks ended.  Victory.  Some thoughts on tonights game, composed while Larry Vannover reviews the tape and tries to justify calling LeBlanc out at home...

- It wasn't a bobblehead give away - the Padres were selling Tony Hawk dolls for $10.  Unexpected this was, and unfortunate.

- Marlins changed their lineup last minute, taking Mike Stanton out and juggling pretty much everyone else.  Apparently Stanton jammed his left big toe running into the RF scoreboard during last night's game (he was chasing a fly ball).  He went through all the pre-game stuff before being scratched.

- The Padres played 'Fight for Your Right (To Party)' by the Beastie Boys while waiting for San Diego to take the field.  They played a version that removes the 'living at home is such a drag/now your mom took away your best porno mag' lyric.  Uh, fellas?  That song is 25 years old.  EVERYONE in the ballpark has heard it by now.  Who's sensitive ears are you going to protect?

- LeBlanc was safe.

- Looked like Maybin might have been safe on his stolen base attempt in the first inning.   Florida pitched out, but it appeared he got his hand in while SS Emilio Bonifacio tagged him on the chest.  Most of the time, if the ball beats you you're out.  On that play at least 2B umpire Dan Bellino can be excused since Maybin's own body blocked him from judging when the tag was applied relative to when Maybin hit the bag.

- Kyle Blanks HR probably traveled 700' in the air.  From my vantage point it sure looked like the ball's apex was above the 'PETCO PARK' sign on top of the LF scoreboard.  What a moon shot.  393' was the official distance.  No way, man, no way.  That swing completely changed the game.

- Two times through the Marlin lineup, and Bonifacio had not swung at a pitch (seen 9, called out on strikes and walked on 4 pitches).  Alfredo Amezaga, however, the emergency LF starter due to Stanton's scratch, had swung at all 6 pitches he'd seen (4 foul, fly to CF, pop to 2B).  I thought that was quite funny.

- Pitcher Chris Volstad ripped his double up the LF/CF gap.  Mike Cameron, who's bat did indeed look slow, can still run (in fact I was surprised with how short a lead he took after singling in the fourth).  He scored without a play.

- LeBlanc is still safe.  What a ridiculous call.  He looked safe at normal speed, and was CLEARLY safe on the replay.  How can you blow that call?  It's your only job, Larry Vannover - to get the call right.  Take your time, we'll wait.  At least we now know how to wake up the Padre crowd.  They let Vannover have it the rest of that inning, and only quit really riding him after the sixth inning ended.

- Bonifacio made O-Dog dive into the dirt while completing a double play to end the sixth.  Threw it low.  In repsonse, Hudson practically undressed Home Run Ed in the eighth with a hard shot up the middle.  Yes I realize neither of these were intentional.

- The seventh inning saw something you rarely see - a pitching change in the middle of an at bat.  Jack McKeon pulled Chris Hatcher and replaced him with Ryan Webb while the count was 2-0 on Alberto Gonzalez.  In case you are wondering (and I was), had Webb walked Gonzalez that walk would have been charged to Hatcher.  Any other result was to be charged to Webb.  Gonzo reached on a FC.

- In the eighth, McKeon burned two pinch hitters on the same at bat, when Brett Hayes was announced then replaced by Dwayne Wise after Black pulled Spence in favor of Gregerson.  Hayes is the back-up catcher.  I have no idea what the Marlins would have done had John Buck then gotten hurt (the speculation was Gaby Sanchez would have caught).  It also explains why Buck was left in to run in the ninth after his leadoff walk - there was no way they could run for him.

- Blanks made a nice running catch of Sanchez' line drive leading off the fifth, and al-MOST caught Lopez's liner with two out in the seventh.  As Black said during the post-game interview, Blanks has quick feet, great hands, and is getting good jumps on balls hit his way.  All that hard work is paying off.

- Josh Spence's last 4 outings:  4 walks, 1 HBP, 1 K, 1 HR.  All of a sudden he's having trouble finding the plate.  With Joe Thatcher back on the big club, how much longer does Spence stay in San Diego?

Padres have won all 6 games against Florida this season. Nice to see us dominate someone.  I'll be at Sunday's game for the Retirement Ceremony, and am looking forward to it. I've never attended a number retiring ceremony, so I hope this lives up to expectations.

Oh, and LeBlanc is STILL safe!

AA vs AAA Pitcher Call-ups

Nice win for the Padres last night.  Latos battled through 6 tough innings.  The offense sputtered again but broke a 4-4 tie in the eighth inning, and the bullpen shut down Boston late.

Couple of things to discuss.  During last night's Podcast I mentioned that it seems the Padres have dipped into AA more often than AAA for pitching help this year.  Looking at their transactions for this season that's not quite accurate.

• AAA pitching callups:  Wade LeBlanc (4/24, 6/14), Evan Scribner (4/25, 6/9).
• AA pitching callups:  Anthony Bass (6/13), Joshua Spence (6/21).

Wade LeBlanc being called up twice this season is not surprising; he spent significant time with the big club in 2010.  Scribner's a big righty but has been used exclusively in games the Padres trailed by at least 3 runs.  That's it for AAA pitching promotions.  Until recently the Padres pitching corps had been pretty healthy save Joe Thatcher.  With Harang and Gregerson on the mend, and Moseley ailing but pitching through it, I find it interesting that San Diego's front office is willing to dip into their lower level minor league team for help.

I just don't remember that happening a lot before.  It might be I haven't paid as close attention to where the callups come from as I am now.  Or it might be the PCL is such a hitters league this season it's hurting Jeremy Hefner and Will Inman's (to name two) chances of making a big league start.  Bass won his ML debut so there won't be any second-guessing here.  We'll see what Spence brings to the table in upcoming days.

We also talked last night about Wade LeBlanc's chances of making another start.  He was sent down after his Monday start, so that talk is kind of moot; who gets the start instead?  Harang won't come off the DL until 28 June at the earliest, meaning he'll miss his next start (which would be Saturday).  If I was a betting man I'd bet Cory Luebke will get the ball this Saturday.  Luebke has been the lone left-hander in the Padres bullpen this season, however the call-up of Joshua Spence (who's left-handed) had to be designed with covering Luebke's bullpen slot in mind.

I really like Luebke getting a start. He dominated the Red Sox lineup for 3 innings on Monday, and I believe Black would have left him out there longer if the seventh inning had been the fourth inning; he might have been able to pitch out of it.  At least he could have done no worse than Frieri did.  Atlanta will be a challenge and I'm looking forward to seeing him battle.

Well That's More Like It

OK, first a mea culpa.  I spent last week in TAP class.  TAP stands for Transition Assistance Program, and is one of many things the military offers folks getting ready to 'transition' prepare for life on the outside.  The class was great, but it also meant I had to do actual work in the evenings - so I didn't get to write much.

Friday is softball night in these here parts, so I was able to listen to the game on the drive up to Hourglass.  I got out of the car with the Padres down 3-2 and Wade LeBlanc in a heck of a jam.  I got back in the car in time to hear San Diego score ... and make the score 15-5 Mariners.  Of all the things I thought would happen during Friday night's game, 23 runs and 30 hits combined did not enter into my calculations.

I don't think Wade LeBlanc enjoys his trips to Seattle.

Tonight's game was much more like what I expected when two of the weakest offenses in baseball hooked up.  Matt Stairs popped a couple of stitches on the ball he hit, didn't he?  True to form, the winning run scored on a wild pitch (USS Mariner has been rather vocal regarding the state of play by Seattle catchers this season.  Josh Bard has been the best of the bunch).  I thought Heath Bell was going to blow the save, but he managed to strike out Milton Bradley and get Casey Kotchman to ground out to end the game with runners on the corners.

So the Padres stay tied for first with Los Angeles, and open up a 2.5 game lead on San Francisco.

Tomorrow's game should be a doozy - Mat Latos and Felix Hernandez.  Looking forward to it.

Pitching Pitching and More Pitching (and lots of links!)

First, if haven't seen this team play (and judging by the attendance, you haven't), the Padres have managed to win a few games here and there.  With last night's 3-2 win, they sit 1.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West.

How are they doing it?  Not so much with the bat (19th overall in team AVG, 19th in wOBA, 19th in OPS), although they are 13th in BABIP.

Nope, it's been all about the pitching (4th in FIP, 1st in xFIP, 3rd in ERA).  In this series, they've had to have the pitching, because they've scored only 5 runs against the Colorado Rockies (while allowing 7), and yet have split the first two games of the series.

Kevin Correia pitched well Monday, but Ubaldo Jimenez was flat-out better.  That happens.

Speaking of Jimenez, Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the great names in baseball today, along with Yorvit Torrealba.  As such, they are now charter members of the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars, dedicated to recognizing great MLB player names.  Have a nominee?  Leave it in the comments.  Needs to be a current player, unless it's one of such superior quality it transcends time. 

Wade LeBlanc - 6 innings, 2 ER, 4 K?  Slacker.  Actually, he continues to strengthen his case for staying in the rotation long-term.  Had the Padres cashed in on any of the numerous chances Greg Smith created for them, Wade could have been the winning pitcher in this one.  Wade is second only to Correia in xFIP among the starters; in fact, the two of them are the only starters with xFIP's under 4.00.

We've talked a lot about LeBlanc vs Latos in the rotation; the original post on the subject generated discussion at at least three different Padres websites.  One of the Ducksnorts commenters suggested, should CY be activated, the odd man out be Sean Gallagher.  Based on his numbers, that makes a lot of sense.  As far as who would go to the pen in his place, I'd think I'd keep riding the hot hand in the rotation and send Latos there.  That, of course, is subject to change based on how the season progresses.

Speaking of Chris Young...

Latos vs LeBlanc in the rotation?

Something I've been thinking about for the better part of a week is what to do with Wade LeBlanc.  The reasons why I've been wondering, well, I'll explain at the bottom of the post.  The Padres are in an enviable position, because they will have too many starting pitchers when Chris Young comes off the DL.  Note that I'm not considering Tim Stauffer, who was a candidate to start during spring training, in this discussion, as he is doing a nice job out of the Padre bullpen.  San Diego has been able to let Chris Young rehab at his own pace is because of their depth in the rotation.

LeBlanc has pitched very well since taking CY's spot in the rotation.  Latos, outside of the scintillating start against San Francisco, has struggled. With Young almost ready to resume his place, the Padres have a tough call to make:  who gets sent back to Portland?

Here's my thought:  it's not as simple as giving Wade LeBlanc a ticket to Oregon.  Based on performance so far this year, Latos might be a better choice.

Let's take the emotion out of it and look at this objectively.

1.  Latos (4 starts): 20 1/3 IP, 14 R (all earned), 24 H, 6 BB, 13K, 5 HR.  WHIP = 1.527, ERA = 6.20.  Granted, half the runs he allowed happened last night.
2.  LeBlanc (2 starts):  11 IP, 1 R (earned), 10 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR.  WHIP = 1.273, ERA = 0.82.

LeBlanc, despite making two fewer starts and throwing 9 1/3 fewer innings, has only three fewer strikeouts, is allowing fewer baserunners, and has a miniscule ERA.

Since Earned Run Average is an inherently flawed metric, a deeper look is in order.  Here are a little more advanced statistics, ones currently commonly accepted as being good measures of the quality of a pitcher (i.e., they take the defense out of the equation).  The first two take into account Latos' start last night, the last two don't.

K/BB ratio:  Latos 2.16, LeBlanc 2.5.
K/9:  Latos 5.76, LeBlanc 8.18.
FIP:  Latos 5.46, LeBlanc 2.30.
xFIP:  Latos 3.99, LeBlanc 3.42.

You can keep looking at your convenience.  By all the statistical measures I reviewed, however, at this moment in history Wade LeBlanc is pitching better than Mat Latos.  I'm not saying we should give up on Latos, or that 4 years down the road he won't be the best starter on the team - we shouldn't, and he might.  But today - for this team - LeBlanc is currently the better option.

And let's not forget how close the #5 starter competition was in spring training.  Latos beat-out LeBlanc the last week of March, so it's not like Latos' making the team was a slam-dunk.  These guys graded out virtually even, with Latos being just slightly better.

So who do the Padres send down?  They ought to, in my opinion, seriously consider Latos.  Now, LeBlanc's next start is at home against Milwaukee (Thursday night).  If he lays an egg, then perhaps you keep working with Latos and send LeBlanc back down.  But if LeBlanc shuts down the Marlins Brewers, a team that just got finished torturing Latos a very good hitting team, well, that's another point for Wade staying in San Diego.

I really need to hire a proofreader.

(why I started pondering this:  I have Wade LeBlanc on my NL-only Rotisserie League fantasy team, and I was trying to decide if I should keep him or trade him.)

Winter Meeting Kickoff

Well, since I've largely ignored this blog since mid-August, it's high time I start it up again. The Winter Meetings starting Monday seemed a perfect time to do just that.

The Padres are expected to non-tender Kevin Correia. This surprises me based on how Correia pitched in 2009. From the biz of baseball, here's what non-tender means:

If a club has no interest in keeping a particular player, the club may choose to non-tender him, or to not offer him a contract. A player generally becomes a candidate to be non-tendered when he is arbitration-eligible and his club determines he is not worth the salary he might command in arbitration. A player who is non-tendered becomes a free agent and may sign with any of the 30 Major League clubs, including his former team, at any price.

Correia has over 4 years service, so he's arbitration eligible. He made $750K last season, but his 2.4 WAR in 2009 meant he was worth just under $11M dollars. No one is going to pay Kevin Correia eleven million dollars to pitch for them. However, if he went to arbitration he'd make substantially more than 750K. Heck, Brad Penny is about to sign a deal for $7.5 million - and he was awful for most of 2009! And for a cash-strapped franchise, that's a deal breaker.

With Correia's non-tender (and it isn't official until 12 December), the Padre rotation stacks up something like this:

Chris Young, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc.

I think I'd rather have Correia in the rotation than either Stauffer or LeBlanc.