Game Reflections - #29 vs Pirates

Just returned from tonight's Padres/Pirates tilt at Petco.  Some thoughts on the 4-3 Padres loss:

- Great idea by San Diego to honor the military by wearing the camouflage uniforms.  The team usually invites all active duty and veterans in the crowd to stand and be recognized prior to the start of every game, and did so again tonight; but the cheers from the 20,456 in attendance were a little louder than normal.  The MLB 9-11 logo was also displayed on monitors throughout the ballpark during the introductions.

- Tonight's National Anthem was sung a capella and frankly, it was appropriate to do it that way.  We should not celebrate that a man, even an enemy, is dead; we should remember those no longer with us because of the evil that man brought into the world.

- Whatever Aaron Harang brought with him to the mound to start the game, he should forget it.  Every ball hit in play by Pittsburgh in the top of the first was a bullet.  The Garrett Jones HR was a no-doubter into the RF corner, and Chris Snyder's was hammered out to left.  After a half-inning to regroup, he allowed a measly infield single in his remaining 4 innings.

- Brad Hawpe made a nice play on a ground ball up the line off Jones' bat.  It was eerily similar to the ball Martin Prado hit on Wednesday that Hawpe missed.  Nice to see him make that play.

- Jorge Cantu's HR in the sixth was also smashed.  Amazing how when the weather heats up the ball carries better at Petco, no?  His 2-run shot cut the lead in half.

- Ryan Ludwick had 2 hits, and both those balls were scorched.  His second hit drove in San Diego's third run.

- A little bit of comedy in the top of the eighth inning when both Hundley and Cantu missed foul balls off the bat of Jones (that man again).  Comedy because Hundley disappeared into the Pirates dugout, and Cantu flopped over into the camera well.  Luckily no one was hurt, and in fairness given where they came down both were tough plays.

- San Diego was mesmerized by an opposing pitcher in their own ball park again.  Other than the HR to Cantu, Pittsburgh starter James McDonald scattered 4 hits and struck out 5 in his 6 innings of work.

- The top of the ninth took for-EVER.  Frieri walked the first 3 hitters he faced, and Gregerson (who relieved him) walked the first guy HE faced, but thanks to Lyle Overbay being caught stealing after his leadoff walk the Padres were able to wriggle off the hook without allowing a run.

- Some smart aleck decided to start the "whoOP!  WHooo" chant when Pittsburgh reliever Chris Resop was warming up, and continued it once Resop entered the game.  Eventually most of the ballpark joined in.  It didn't hurt the chant that the Padres scored their third run with Resop in the game.

- Pittsburgh has the best bullpen ERA in the NL coming into tonight's game.  I had not realized their bullpen had been pitching that well so far in 2011.

- Thanks to consecutive hits by Nick Hundley and Chase Headley, the Padres got runners to the corners with two out in the bottom of the ninth.  But Will Venable hit the first pitch he saw to short, and that ended the game.

We've been beaten down a bit both by the Padres slow start and their struggles on offense.  I think I re-emphasize the obvious when I say San Diego badly needed last Thursday's day off.  Since their attempted ninth-inning comeback on Friday in Los Angeles that fell short, the Padres have started hitting the ball much better.  Tonight every starting position player except Cameron Maybin had a hit.  That's encouraging.  Maybe the days of feeble offense and lots of shutouts are behind us for a while.

One can only hope.

Game Reflections - #25 vs Braves

Although a couple of days time-late, let's go through Wednesday's game against Atlanta. (Note:  I was under the weather the last 2 days, which explains why no post).

1.  The Padres managed to get the leadoff man on just twice - Orlando Hudson's infield single in the fifth, and Ryan Ludwick's walk to start the ninth.  Neither runner advanced past second.  Bud Black talked all winter and during spring training about being more aggressive on the base paths, but it is hard to be aggressive when there's no one on early in the inning.

It's also hard to be aggressive when guys either get forced at second or erased via the double play.

San Diego also only managed one runner as far as THIRD.  That happened with two out in the sixth.  After Will Venable stole second, Rob Johnson struck out swinging on a full count, ending the threat.

2. Credit should be given to Tyler Hanson for being dominant on this day - 10 strikeouts along with 4 hits (all singles) and a walk.  That said, not every pitcher the Padres have faced this season is Cy Young.  At what point does one draw the line between saying 'oh, that guy was really on today' and 'we just can't hit, and it makes every opposing starter we face look that much better'?

3.  Let's look at the positive out of this game for a moment.  Mat Latos got beat up pretty good in the first two innings (more on the second inning later).  After Brian McCann's double driving in Atlanta's sixth run of the game, Latos retired 10 of the last 11 hitters he faced - 4 by strikeout, 4 via ground ball.  That's encouraging.  Latos has been killed this season by leaving the ball up.  If it clicked after the double that is very good news.

Remember, he struggled last season coming out of the gate.  Only after he got torched by the Marlins in Florida did he right himself and become the dominant pitcher he was from May - August.

4.  Brad Hawpe's error ultimately became the key play in the game.  If he makes the play on Martin Prado's grounder, Latos is out of the inning, the score is still 1-0, and the possibilities are endless.  After the error the Braves went single/triple/double and blew the game open.  Padres fans at the game rode Hawpe the rest of the afternoon, sarcastically cheering after every play he made and booing him after every out he hit into.

Hawpe is struggling.  No one hits .143 at the major league level without struggling at lot at the plate, and I'm sure Hawpe is painfully aware of his trouble offensively.  Booing him won't help.  That said, I completely understand why fans booed him Wednesday.  It is their right as fans to voice their displeasure when players (or umpires, for that matter) aren't performing up to par.  Just don't expect Hawpe to suddenly snap out of it because he heard booing from the normally laid-back San Diego crowd.

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Two other items worth mentioning:

1.  The Padres announced Thursday the return of the $5 discount when purchasing Padres tickes online through Padres.com.  From the press announcement:

Padres President and COO Tom Garfinkel made the announcement.

"The $5 online discount originated last year in an effort to increase both affordability and convenience for Padres fans," Garfinkel said. "It was incredibly popular, and our fans repeatedly told us they saw great value in the offer, so we decided to bring it back again for a limited time this year."

The $5 online discount is available now exclusively at padres.com, and is valid for all games on all tickets normally priced $13.50 or more. The promotion excludes PETCO Park's All-You-Can-Eat seats, and may not be used in conjunction with other discounts or promotions, including 2-for-1 Tuesdays, presented by Coca-Cola. Go to http://www.padres.com/ to take advantage of the limited-time offer.

Yes, a naked attempt to bolster flagging attendance, but $5 off is $5 off.

2.  The Padres Trail Podcast returned last night.  You can hear the episode here, or also through iTunes - just search for either 'SMS_Mike' or 'Padres Trail Podcast'.

Game Reflections - #21 vs Phillies

Looks like someone didn't know where the end of their car was in the MTS lot

While waiting for the fans to disperse a little bit (paid attendance - 40038), some quick thoughts on tonight's game.

Padres were much more aggressive in the first inning than I remember them being recently.  Maybin single, Bartlett triple highlighted the frame.  With a run in, runners on the corners, and Hundley up it looked very good they'd blow Blanton off the mound immediately.  Didn't happen that way, unfortunately, as their hitting funk reared its head again (tap to the mound, fly out, strikeout).

Hoffman HAS to send Bartlett in that situation.  The team is struggling to score runs, send the guy.  Let's make THEM make a play instead of us always having to. (Update:  Ted Mendenhall pointed out during the Padres Post-Game show that some of the blame should fall on Orlando Hudson.  After all, he showed no inclination to go on that fly ball, and had the play entirely in front of him.  I find that an accurate assessment.)

Someday Ludwick will stop swinging at the low and away pitch off the plate.  I hope I'm alive to see it.

Stauffer pitched his rear end off, tying a career high with 7K's tonight.

I thought the ball Pete Orr hit in the sixth was fair live and in person.  Not sure why the umpire hesitated on that call, although he had a better vantage point than I did.  Then, tough luck on the ball Rollins hit, as it skipped through the infield for a single that tied the game.

Gregerson/Adams/Bell - lights out as usual.

Bastardo is a beast. That's two games this series he's come in and completely shut down the Padres.

After Hundley's double to break the 1-1 tie, the Padres managed 2 hits the rest of the way.  Can't do that in a close game and expect to win.

Hawpe's at bat in the eleventh was his best at bat of the night by far.  He finally started laying off the outside pitches he's been waving at.  Disturbing for me to see is that he can't catch up with the high fastball at all. He's been swinging through them all year.  No wonder he's constantly pitched up there by the opposition.

Ludwick's 2 hits in this game equal the total number of hits he had on the last homestand.  Maybe he actually is breaking out of his slump.

Finally, the big decision of the game - yes the game was decided by 1000 little things before Bud Black directed Rollins be intentionally walked in front of Ryan Howard.  Yes Howard had struck out 4 times in this game and (I believe) 9 times in the series.  Howard is too elite of a player to insult like that.  If he'd walked Rollins to face Howard with Gregerson or Adams or Bell on the mound I'd been really OK with it.  But with Cory Luebke - a second season guy who's only been in the majors for 2 months now - that's a tall order.

Still, it reinforced how this is a game of inches.  Howard missed a 3-R jack by about 4 feet.  Ludwick missed catching that ball and ending the inning by about 1 foot.  If Ludwick makes that play - which was very difficult, let me assure you - we're still playing.

Padres try to avert the sweep tomorrow.  Facing Roy Halladay that's a very tall order.

Game Reflections - Game #19 Vs Phillies

Went to 2/3 of the game last night.  We left after 6 1/3 innings (a) to beat traffic, and (b) because you can only sit through so much offensive futility.  Some impressions.

1.  I tweeted last night about 'another SD home game, Padres no-hit through 3 again."  That's not entirely correct.  What is true is the Padres have gone hitless the first time through the order twice, and I've been in the ballpark on both occasions. Including last night's home game, the Padres have gotten their first hit of the game:

• First inning - twice
• Second inning -four times
• Third inning - once
• Fourth inning - once
• Fifth inning - once

2.  Last night was an interesting one from a fashion perspective.  I should have taken a picture or some video of the ladies in question, but I walked to my seat behind 4 young women wearing some of the tightest jeans I've yet seen - and platform heels to boot.  EVERY guy they walked past turned around to look, so I guess their clothing choices had the intended effect.

3.  It becomes frustrating to watch our offense routinely unable to either drive runners in from third, or to hit for extra bases.  It becomes even more frustrating to watch opposing teams come in and hit the crap out of the ball.  I'm am beginning to believe part of the problem with the Padres is psychological.  They continually hear about this ballpark and how it is a pitcher's park, and how you can't hit the long ball here.  Whether or not you believe it, it eventually seeps into your consciousness.  Other NL teams don't have to listen to that over and over again about their home ballpark, or about the park they come into.  They just hit; and seem to have better results in San Diego than the Padres do.

4.  This team really misses Jerry Hairston Jr.  How many times did we see him come to the plate last year, with the team down early, and hit a home run or start a rally?  From a perspective with no access to the clubhouse, it seems his leadership helped steady the 2010 Padres.  I don't see any evidence that type of leadership is present on this team.  Every 3 run deficit feels like game over; there's no sense the Padres can claw their back into those games.

Case in point - leading off the fourth Jorge Cantu had a 14-pitch at bat.  He eventually struck out, but it felt like a moral victory.  You know you're offense is struggling when a 14-pitch strike out feels like a victory.

5.  Cameron Maybin flat-out misplayed Ben Francisco's HR ball.  I initially thought he just backpedaled into the CF wall, but after seeing the replay he took a good route to the ball.  It seemed live he had no idea how close to the wall he was when he was trying to catch the ball.  If he jumps that's an out.

Ludwick?  Overran it, but Polanco was out a third and the blue blew the call.  Denorfia?  Looked like he lost it in the lights initially, because he didn't break on the ball at all.

Padres try again tonight - Richard vs Hamels.

I did have a Podcast last night - it can be heard here.  Two errata to correct from the discussion - I said last night was the fourth time the Padres had been shut out, that's wrong; I forgot about their Monday shutout at the hands of the Cubs.  I also said last night was the first time someone other than Moseley had been shut out, and that's also wrong; Tim Stauffer started that same game Monday.  The Astro/Padre game I reference during the show happened on July 2, 2010, and indeed ended 3-0.

Game Cancelled, Padres to play two

From the Padres media relations staff, tonights Padres/Cubs game has been postponed to tomorrow. Weather reports from Chicago are forecasting thunderstorms, rain (probably the freezing kind) and temps in the mid-30s.

Tomorrow will be much better, overcast and a high of 43. Because we must not deprive ownership of gate receipts, there will be a day/night double header. First game at 11:20 pacific time, second game at 4:05.

If there is any problem with the scheduling philosophy as it currently stands, it is the one trip per year to cities outside our division. Any hiccup in the schedule puts teams in a bind. Either they do everything possible to get the games in as scheduled, or they make sure the games are played within the dates scheduled, or risk a losing an off-day later in the season so they can fly back in for one game.

all in the name of the unbalanced schedule. Interleague does not help, but the unbalanced schedule is the culprit.

No word if Moseley will still start tomorrow. I suspect he will.

Last I'm flying back I into town late tonight, so the Tuesday Podcast will be cancelled.

Splitsville

The Padres first come-from-behind win happened on Opening Day in St Louis.  They were not able to do it again until last Wednesday vs the Reds.  Sunday they made it 3 wins in their last 5 games, and two of the come-from-behind variety, with the 8-6 win in Houston.

Before Sunday's win I was sure the only game San Diego would take in Houston was the one JA Happ started, because he's on my fantasy team.  It's been that kind of season so far for the kid.  It was nice to see some other fantasy owner suffer this week as well.

The last 5 games the Padres have scored 3, 0, 4, 3, and 8 runs.  The previous 5 hey had scored 2, 0, 7, 2, and 2 runs.  18 runs the last 5, 13 the previous five.  I'll call that progress, even if 4 of those games were played in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park.

So it's off to Chicago and the Cubs.

I'll look to make these posts longer as the season goes, and include some actual analysis.  Right now I'm just trying to get back into the blogging groove.

Playing Catch Up

A little bit of free time appeared this morning, so let's play a little catch-up.

First the Podcast has returned! The latest two 30 minute episodes can be heard here and here. With the depth of offensive woes the Padres were experiencing at the time of both shows, I did focus on that. But I did cover other things. Give the 2 shows a whirl.

On Thursday's show I speculated that the lack of run support Dustin Moseley has gotten in his first three starts was historic. Thanks to the good folks in Media Relations with the club, we have an answer. They checked with the Elias Sports Bureau, and

The last time a starting pitcher's team was shut out in each of his first three starts to begin a season was in 2008 when the Detroit Tigers were blanked in each of Kenny Rogers' first 3 starts. Before Rogers, the last pitcher with no run support in his first three starts was Rudy May for the 1972 California Angels

Two times in the last 40 years demonstrates just how rare what has happened to Moseley is. It is a historical anomaly that the last two pitchers hung out to dry like this were left-handed. So it's been over 40 years since a righty experienced this level of no run support pain.

After Ryan Ludwick struck out Thursday night to end the eighth, I thought he and Moseley needed to start a support group to deal with failure. Ludwick could spend 10 minutes bemoaning his loss of hitting ability. Moseley could respond by slapping Ludwick around for 10 minutes, screaming HOW ABOUT SCORING SOME RUNS FOR ME JACKASSES?!?!?!

Speaking of Ludwick, he finally snapped his 0-for-the-season with runners in scoring position with a 2-RBI single in the seventh last night, snapping a 1-all tie. There was a report via Twitter (I believe Corey Brock sent the note) that Ludwick discovered he was too hunched over at the plate, and has straightened up so he can see the ball better. One wonders how long his batting stance has been tweaked, and if that's been the issue with his sub-.200 batting average since coming over from St Louis. If he now goes on a tear with the bat, we will know.

One other thing to consider: Ludwick temporarily snapped out of his funk last year when Bud Black dropped him to the bottom third of the order. This team needs Ludwick in the middle of the lineup; I hope the source of his troubles is not the pressure he puts on himself to perform as a 3-4-5 hitter (and before you remind me he hit in middle of the order with the Cardinals, he had some guy named Pujols carrying the majority of the load there).

More good news: the Padres have won 2 out of 3 for the first time since their first series of the year. They look to keep the momentum going this weekend.

Nice Start

Yeah the Cardinals have tortured San Diego over the last decade.  I'm not talking about just the 3 NLDS losses to those guys, where San Diego dropped 9 of the 10 games played.  Since the start of the 2006 season St Louis was 14-4 in Missouri against the Padres.  This includes the infamous rain-delayed Sunday game in 2008 when Colby Rasmus hit a 3-run bomb to stun Heath Bell and the Padres.

Nothing ever seems go to right at Busch.  Which is why winning this Opening Weekend series was so sweet.  San Diego has not won the season series from the Cardinals since 2006, which incidentally was the last time the Padres won a series in St Louis.  In fact the Padres had won 2 series there the last FOURTEEN YEARS until this weekend.  Here's a little tidbit: the last 3 times San Diego has won a series at Busch the Padres have made the playoffs.

I'm not telling the Front Office to start printing those ducats, but that's a nice early sign for the season to come isn't it?

We all know how important Ryan Ludwick is to the 2011 team, and the Padres could not have picked a better park for the season to start off in than Busch.  Ludwick's history there is well-known; if there's one place on this earth to get his confidence high early in the season it's in St Louis.  Ryan's 2 for 10 line might look a lot like last fall, but his 3 walks mean his batter's eye has returned, and he hit several balls hard during the series, albeit it in tough luck (most notably the sixth inning Sunday).

We wondered how the offense would look.  San Diego scored 16 runs in the series.  Yes they got shut out yesterday, but they still scored 16 runs in the series.

Most importantly, the pitchers held up their end of the bargain.  The team limited St Louis to 8 runs total, and held Pujols to 1 RBI (and 2-13 overall).  Dustin Moseley pitched far, far better than I expected he would; he pitched well enough to win, but Cardinal starter Jamie Garcia was just a little bit better.

That's a lot of reasons to be happy with a 2-1 start to the season.  Now the Padres come home to face the Giants, Dodgers, and Reds on their first homestand of the season.  I'll be at the game tomorrow, hope you are too.

Programming Note:  Tuesday's Podcast will be cancelled.  Following the game I have an 8:40 softball game, so there' s no way I'll be in any shape to prattle on for 30 minutes.  We'll pick up again on Thursday.

Season Starts Today

Padres open in St Louis today in about 15 minutes.  I apologize for not posting at all these past 2 months, that should rectify itself once the season starts.  I've got a Podcast scheduled for tonight, so we can talk about the game then too.

New Podcast Schedule

We're here in New England again, which means cell phone reception is spotty at best.  It also means our normal time slot for the Podcast would be 1am Eastern time, and that's just crazy.  You gotta sleep sometime.

This week was also to be the inaugural Tuesday podcast, but, and I'm sure this comes as no surprise to some, I've cancelled that show.

Thursday's show is on, but will be at 8PM PACIFIC, so plan accordingly.  Seriously - we want to hear from you in the chat room.

Baseball Digest and Podcasts

A quick hitter.

Baseball Digest has been doing a birthday post each day during the off-season. Recently I started contributing to those posts.  My second one is up today on former Tigers pitcher Joe Coleman.

There will be a Podcast tonight, the first 30 min version, at 10pm PST.  Feel free to stop by.

Lastly, and sadly, Mr. David Nuffer, who spoke at Saturday's SABR meeting passed away this morning.  He will be missed.

Ted Williams Chapter SABR Day Recap

My wife and I attended yesterday's Ted Williams Chapter SABR meeting.  It was, as always, a great forum and there was a lively discussion.  The meeting started at 0900 and ran until at least 1300; she and I had to leave to relieve our baby sitter, otherwise we would have stayed for the entire program.

John Ingham gave a talk on an article he recently wrote about the 1967 Pirates.  The 1966 Pittsburgh team finished 22 games over .500 and 3 games behind the Dodgers for the NL title.  Many pundits thought all the Pirates needed was improvement at third and in the rotation, which they thought they achieved through trade in the off-season, most notably by acquiring Maury Wills from Los Angeles.

That 1967 edition didn't fare nearly as well as expected, finishing at .500, 20 1/2 games behind the Cardinals.  Mr. Ingham went on to say the team was reported by contemporary press as 'wracked with dissention' in the clubhouse, which likely contributed to their poor performance on the field, and what he thought contributed to that dissention.  I will not give away his thoughts - the article is under consideration for publication at NINE, a journal of baseball history and culture published by the University of Nebraska Press - but I will tell you his thesis centers around three large personalities.  Roberto Clemente, Wills, and manager Harry 'The Hat' Walker.  It was quite interesting.

On an unrelated subject, I finally got some insight why Joe Morgan was traded from Houston to Cincinnati (Walker landed as manager there after being fired by Pittsburgh during the 1967 season), and I look at the famous Juan Marichal/Johnny Roseboro brawl in a new way.

Next we heard from David Nuffer, a Ernest Hemingway buff.  One might wonder what place a Hemingway discussion has in a baseball forum.  Aside from this being a learned group (yes, shameless intellectual promotion there), Hemingway was a bit of a baseball fan.  According to Nuffer, he played baseball in high school, and while living in Cuba built a makeshift baseball field on his estate for the local boys to use.  In fact, one of those boys became his majordomo, and eventually published a memoir of those days titled Hemingway's Cuban Son.

Nuffer is a man of some local fame; apparently he held up signs behind the first base dugout back in the Jack Murphy days.  He is a character, pulling out a card which had a herald piece on it, and saying after it finished "I need a proper introduction."  I would have liked to have known him when he was younger and not wheelchair bound.

Anyway he talked about The Old Man and The Sea, one of Hemingway's great works.  In the pages of that novel there are 7 references to baseball, and embedded in those passages are 9 references to Joe DiMaggio - 'the Great Dimaggio', as the old man calls him.  Finally he concluded by reading from the only poem Hemingway is known to have written, called 'The Opening Game' (1912).  A great presentation; it was worth making the drive to Petco just to hear him speak.

After the break,

The Bartlett Deal and Trevor Hoffman

Padres Trail:  The Cutting Edge of commentary on stories at least 24 hours old.

The Padres signed Jason Bartlett to a 2-year deal worth $11 million guaranteed.  There is a club option for a third year at $5.5M, with a $1.5M buyout.  Cot's Baseball Contracts reports the contract is incentivized, meaning Bartlett may guarantee the third year if he meets certain performance thresholds.  They don't tell you what those are sadly.  So much for the 'Is Jason Bartlett returning in 2013' meter I was planning to put in the margin.

Assuming both Orlando Hudson and Bartlett play in San Diego for the duration of their contracts, 2011/2012 will be the first 2-year stretch with the same two men playing second and short, respectively, since 2004/2005 (Mark Loretta and Khalil Greene, if you are interested).  That's a lot of turnover in the middle infield over the past 5 seasons.  No wonder GM Jed Hoyer made it a priority to stabilize the situation at those two positions.

How good of a deal is this?  Fangraphs' Eno Sarris discussed it yesterday and thinks the Padres spent wisely.  I don't see a reason to disagree with his logic, although how good a signing this is will depend largely on whether Bartlett can remain healthy all season.  If, as Sarris supposes, the dramatic decline in his range last season is due to lower body injuries, then hopefully he (and the Padres training staff) can develop a strategy to prevent that.

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Trevor Hoffman has officially retired, and has been invited to become a part of the Padre front office for 2011.  I didn't realize he is 43 years old.  Trevor leaves the game as it's all-time saves leader, and the only man to save 600 games in a career.  I would imagine the Padres will retire his number at some point this season.

There are a couple of things I like about how he's handled his departure from the game.

1. No one-day contract.  This always struck me as silly.  Great players have already cemented their place in their fan's hearts.  Besides, great players have a lot of great highlights, and those highlights showcase the player in the uniform of the team he played on when he was making them.  You ever see highlights of Gretzky wearing a St Louis Blues uniform?  Of course not - he was only there a couple of months, but also he wasn't the sublime player he was with Edmonton and Los Angeles (heck, even with the New York Rangers he was pretty OK).  Hoffman will be shown getting #600 as a Brewer until Mariano Rivera breaks his record.  Then his highlight clips will revert to ones from the mid- and late-1990s when he dominated the NL.
2. Has a plan.  How many players leave the league and just play golf until they get restless?  Hoffman is interested in the business side of the game, and is looking to find his next niche. Give the Padres credit for allowing him the time to determine where he fits in best.

That's all for now.  

You may already know this, but anyway

I'm doing some research for an article on Randy Jones (which will appear on Wednesday), and discovered something interesting.

- In 1973 Randy Jones was promoted from AA to the majors.  He eventually won a Cy Young award (1976).

- In 2002 Jake Peavy was promoted from AA to the majors.  He eventually won a Cy Young award (2007).

In 2009 Mat Latos was promoted from AA to the majors.  I wonder...

I will be posting more frequently now.  Sorry for the long absence.

Orlando Hudson at Second

Various sources reported on Friday* Orlando Hudson had signed with the Padres to play second base in 2011.  San Diego has not confirmed the deal, waiting for the results of the physical before making the formal announcement.  According to reports in the San Diego U-T, Hudson signed for 2 years ($4M in 2011, $5.5M in 2012), with an $8M option in 2013 (and $2M buyout).  It has not yet been stated if the option is club, player, or mutual (at least as far as I have read).

*Note to Jed Hoyer - can you PLEASE make these types of moves known on Thursday morning instead of Friday morning?  Help a poor lonely Podcast host out.  Throw me a bone, man.

Most of the reporting on this trade has highlighted Hudson's defensive ability.  That, coupled with the trade for  Jason Bartlett (agreed to during the winter meetings last week but only finalized yesterday), and the acquisition of Cameron Maybin earlier this off-season, make the Padres a better defensive team up the middle than in 2010.

Or does it?  I've already looked at Maybin vs Tony Gwynn Jr.  Let's look at the new players in comparison to who they're replacing.

There will be a podcast tonight (12/9)

There's a lot to talk about this week, don't you think?  See you at 10pm.  Follow the link below.


Padres Trail Podcast

Who's On First?

With Adrian Gonzalez now in Boston, I naturally assumed the first base job would become Kyle Blanks.  He is a natural first baseman and, again assuming he's healthy, is a power bat the 2011 Padres will sorely need.  Jed Hoyer, during an interview Monday with Darren Smith, indicated the Padres would look for free agent help at that position.  Which begets two questions:

1.  Where is Blanks going to play when healthy?
2.  What are the Padres' options at first in this market?

Cot's Baseball Contracts has the current list of free agents who play first, age last season in parenthesis:

• Garrett Atkins (30), Willy Aybar (27), Russell Branyan (34), Jason Giambi (39), Troy Glaus (33), Nick Johnson (31), Paul Konerko (34), Casey Kotchman (28), Mark Kotsay (34), Jeff Larish (27), Adam LaRoche (30), Derrek Lee (34), Lyle Overbay (33), Carlos Pena (32), Robb Quinlan (33), Jose Ruiz (25), Randy Ruiz (32), Mike Sweeney (36) , Fernando Tatis (35), Jim Thome (39).

That's a lot of guys to pick through. Let's pare it down, first by eliminating everyone over 35, which removes Giambi, Sweeney, Tatis, and Thome.  We can eliminate Konerko and Pena as unaffordable for the Padres.  We should eliminate guys with significant injury history, so that takes Glaus, Johnson, and Kotsay off.  Jose Ruiz is raw with no major league experience; he's not the answer for 2011.  That cuts the list in half.

Here are the career slugging percentages for the remaining 10 candidates:

• Atkins - .449.  Should note he has played half his career at Coors Field, and his slugging is close to 100 points higher at home (.495/.406) 
• Aybar - .399
• Branyan - .490
• Kotchman - .392
• Larish - .380 in 276 career ML plate appearances
• LaRoche - .488
• Lee - .498
• Overbay - .447
• Quinlan - .401
• Randy Ruiz - .488, 238 career ML plate appearances

Eliminating everyone slugging below .400 (and Rob Quinlan, who slugged .401) kicks Aybar, Kotchman, Larish, and Quinlan off the list.  Six potentials left.

How does one rank these guys?  Three righties (Atkins, LaRoche, Ruiz), three lefties (Branyan, Lee, Overbay).

Atkins was designated for assignment by Baltimore 27 June 10.  He did not play again in 2010.  Fangraphs calculated he was a below-average first baseman (UZR/150 of -13.2), and he's put up negative WAR the last 2 seasons.  From his 2006 career highs in every offensive category, he has seen a drop in OBP and SLG for 4 consecutive years.  His power has seemingly disappeared.

Branyan started last season with Cleveland and finished it in Seattle.  He probably should have been included with the significant injury history, but he probably has the biggest power bat of this group.  Branyan has always been a pretty good defensive 1B and put up a 6.0 UZR/150 in 2010.  He'll give a team between 0.6 and 3 WAR on a given year.  He's left-handed, but he has the power to reach Petco's right field.

LaRoche declined a little bit in 2010 when compared to 2009, but he was solid, hitting 25 HR for the third consecutive year.  He graded out at 4.8 UZR/150 and a solid 2.1 WAR.

Lee had a solid 2010 overall, but is on the downslope of his career.  He posted a UZR/150 of 2.3 playing for Chicago and Atlanta, and posted a 2.0 WAR.

Overbay hit 20 HR for only the second time in his career last season.  He was spectacularly average as a fielder (UZR/150 of 0.1), and posted a 1.5 WAR.  As a lefty, he'd probably see his power dry up in Petco.

Ruiz is really a career minor leaguer.  He played only 23 innings at first last season.  How he would project at Petco is unknown, but I doubt the Padres would take a chance on a 32 year old AAAA player.

Based on those summaries, I think Ruiz, Overbay, and Atkins aren't good options at first.  If Hoyer is going to fill first base from without, it seems Branyan, Lee, or LaRoche make the most sense, if they can be enticed into a relatively affordable contract.

Adrian Gonzalez to Boston - OFFICIAL

tWWL is reporting today the Gonzo trade is final, even though the Red Sox and Gonzalez's people could not agree on a long-term extension.

For those of you holding out hope he stays in SD, I imagine it will take the press conference tomorrow and Adrian holding a Red Sox jersey before you acknowledge he's gone.  That said I'm not sure there are many of those folks left.  Trading Adrian Gonzalez away has been expected for more than a year now.  San Diego could not afford the left-handed first baseman.  If they were forced to trade away Jake Peavy and his $16 million dollar a year deal, how where they going to re-sign Gonzo for $20 mil?

2010's almost-run to the post-season only delayed the inevitable.  Jed Hoyer could not trade Gonzalez away in July because his club was not only in contention, they were leading the division.  How would that look? Giving up your best hitter with two months to go and a 4 game lead?  So Gonzalez stayed.

There will probably be comparisons to the fire-sale of the early 1990s.  So far this off-season Jon Garland, Yorvit Torrealba, and Miguel Tejada had all left for other teams (LA, not yet signed, and SF, respectively).  With those losses this team was to have a difficult time contending.  With Gonzalez in the AL East it is pretty near impossible.  Ryan Ludwick is going to be awfully lonely in the middle of this order.

For better or worse this will be the trade by which Hoyer is judged as the GM.  It's a good thing he and key members of his staff know the Boston minor league system well, because he'd better have gotten excellent value for the fourth-best player in the NL last season (if you go by MVP voting) who is in his prime.

Whatever contract value it is Adrian finally agrees to (be it 8 years, $180M or 6/$120) congratulations to him on the deal.  Gonzalez is the best 1B in the history of the San Diego Padres, and will be for some time to come.  He's worked hard and his ship has finally come in.  I will miss seeing him hit in person and on local TV.

As I close, and in case you're not depressed enough by the trade, here's how I project the 2011 Padre team to look:

1B - Kyle Blanks
2B - Matt Antonelli (speculation only; Eckstein is a free agent and I don't know who else to put here)
3B - Chase Headley
SS - Everth Cabrera (see above, replace 'Eckstein...' with 'Tejada signed with SF')
LF - Chris Denorfia Ryan Ludwick*
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - Ryan Ludwick Will Venable*
C - Nick Hundley

SP:  Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Chris Young (yes I think he re-signs) Aaron Harang**, Cory Luebke.

Think we struggled to score runs in 2010?  Just wait.

*This seems the more likely lineup after pondering it last night.
** Spaced the Harang signing.

Bud Black is NL Manager of the Year

The BBA held it's post-season awards voting during the playoffs, and awarded Bud Black their Connie Mack Award as the best NL Manager in 2010.  Yesterday the BBWAA followed suit, naming Black the NL Manager of the Year.

As a baseball observer and Padre partisan, I felt this selection was self-evident.  Black took a team that lost 87 games the previous season and moved them within a game of the playoffs, finishing with a 90-72 record.  The BBWAA didn't think he had a slam-dunk case based on the voting.  I had not considered Dusty Baker as a viable candidate - I expected Bruce Bochy and Bobby Cox to get significant support - but Baker presided over a turnaround almost as big as San Diego's (Cincinnati lost 84 games in 2009 and finished this season 91-71).

Maybe that's because I could never decide if Cincinnati's division championship was a product of their superior play, or St Louis' collapse after 11 August.

At any rate, in the hour before the winners were announced I got into an interesting interchange with a Giants fan on Twitter (SFGiantsUSA) about who deserved to win.  First, it was nice to have a reasonable exchange with a Giants fan for once.  His argument against Black centered around their performance after 25 August, when the 10-game losing streak started.  My counter was Bochy had less to do with the Giants success last season than Brian Sabean did.  We argued according to form, perhaps.

But those positions weren't why it was interesting.  He asked if Black's perceived success was based on how the Padres were evaluated before the season started, and so why should he get credit because the prognosticators mis-evaluated the Padres (and how strong their pitching was)?

He makes a fair point.  Most every Manager of the Year award goes to a guy who is perceived to have gotten his team to over-achieve  Who sets the baseline from which that over-achievement is evaluated? The BBWAA, ESPN experts, MLB.com experts, bloggers, and so on.  Manager of the Year should go to the man who performed the best regardless of how his team was expected to play.  I had not considered that position until he mentioned.

If we discount where everyone thought the Padres would finish (and I think universally they were picked to finish no higher than 4th in the NL West), does Black still deserve the award?  I think so, because of the overall talent level he had to work with.  Consider:

• NL teams averaged 4.33 runs per game.  San Diego came in at 4.10.  Four teams were worse:  New York (4.05), Washington (4.04), Houston (3.77), Pittsburgh (3.62).  None of those 4 teams finished above .500 (NY was the closest at 79-83)
• San Diego's raw OPS was third worst in the league.  Their park adjusted OPS+ was more middle of the pack, but still below the league average.  Concurrently, their team wOBA was also thirdworst.
• All the above makes sense if you looked at their lineups over the 2010 season.  The only guy in the lineup that scared teams day-to-day was Adrian Gonzalez. Miguel Tejada did help after the trade deadline, but still - this was a below average lineup.

San Diego's pitching was superior, especially their bullpen, which made up for the lack of hitting all season.  Bud Black did a great job juggling his starting staff (specifically Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia, Chris Young) and aggressively turning over the games to his airtight bullpen.

And his starting staff had holes in it.  Kevin Correia never really recovered from the untimely death of his brother.  Chris Young started the third game of the season, then didn't pitch again until September.  Mat Latos took a 'injury' related 15 days off in July.  Wade LeBlanc was effective, then not effective, holding down the #5 job. Jon Garland had a great year statistically but was maddingly erratic for stretches late in the season.

Other teams had issues, sure.  SF's lineup had no power in it for the first half of the season.  St Louis lost 40% of its rotation in a week and never fully recovered.  Philadelphia played 14 total regular season games with their Opening Day lineup.  But all those teams had much more margin for error, either because the rest of their roster was talented enough to survive the damage (STL, PHI), or they had the resources to make wholesale changes to their roster (SF, PHI).  No other team spent the season with the razor thin margin between success and failure Padres did, and the fact they stayed on the success side of that edge the virtually all season (and returned to it after falling off it in late August) is entirely due to Bud Black.

So no, I don't think pre-season expectations should drive who wins. But I think who did the most with the talent they had should, and Bud Black clearly did.  Congratulations Bud Black.

Cameron Maybin to the Padres

On Saturday last the Padres acquired Cameron Maybin from Florida for "Home Run Ed" Mujica and Ryan Webb.  You may have seen this.

The first question I asked myself was why did the Padres trade some of their pitching depth for a guy at a position...where they have a lot of depth already?  So I took a look at some numbers.

Maybin has played most of his career, and all his time with Florida, as a centerfielder.  It's reasonable to expect the Padres plan to line him up in center for 2011.  That means Tony Gwynn Jr, Will Venable, and Chris Denorfia are probably looking for another position to play.  How good a CF is Maybin?  Well:

• By UZR/150 (fangraphs):  -4.4 (2010), 13,5 (2009).  He played 8 games in 2008 and 15 games in 2007, so too small a sample size to use.
• By Dewan plus/minus:  -7 (2010), +6 (2009).
• By Range factor/9 (baseball reference):  3.11 (2010), 2.70 (2009).  League average was 2.59 and 2.60 respectively.

Tony Gwynn?

• UZR/150:  32.9, 14.4
• Dewan:  +23, +19
• Range Factor/9:  2.12, 3.03.

Venable has played less than 30 games in center each of the last 3 seasons, so not much data to go on there.  Denorfia has played only 1 season with the Padres, and had 50 games in CF, but his UZR/150 is -15.7.  Remember that he and Venable were substitutes after Gwynn Jr got hurt, so really this is about Maybin and Gwynn.

Based on the defensive numbers above I would argue Gwynn Jr is a better defensive CF than Maybin.  Only Range Factor/9 favors Maybin, which interestingly enough was quoted in the SDUT article announcing Maybin's acquisition:

The 6-foot-3, 210-pound Maybin last season had the highest range factor of any National League center fielder who played at least 70 games. Maybin had a 3.10 score per nine innings. By comparison, Tony Gwynn had a 2.12 score.

Was the trade about improving the offense?  Doubtful.  For the 2010 season, Maybin's .234/.302/.361 (.299 wOBA) line was not much better than Gwynn Jr's .204/.304/.287 (.276 wOBA).  I thought perhaps Maybin would be the leadoff hitter the Padres need to find, but based on that OBP he is no improvement at all.

Over 610 PA Maybin has posted a .246/.313/.380.  Over 1054 PA Gwynn Jr has .244/.323/.314.  We can say Maybin has more power based on the slugging percentage, but otherwise they are the same hitter.  So this isn't about the offense.

Was the trade be about salary?  Maybin has just over one year major league service time (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts and my extrapolation), and Gwynn Jr has just over 3.  Again according to Cot's, both are arbitration eligible for 2011 (note:  I may be reading the data on Cot's wrong, so apologies if I have indeed misinterpreted it).  I don't understand how Maybin is arbitration eligible with only 1 year service time, but that is what the data says.

Based on the arbitration status for both, this probably isn't about the salary.  Both players have above-average gloves but below-average bats, so their arbitration cases would be very similar.

Maybin is 4+ years younger than Gwynn.  Maybe that's what this is about.

Sometimes I wish I had access to the analytical tools the Padres use to evaluate players, because from my perspective, they acquired a new starting center fielder with no appreciable upside from their current starting center fielder.

Complicating things is the Padres already crowded outfield.  Besides Gwynn Jr, Venable, and Denorfia, San Diego also has OF Kyle Blanks, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Cunningham, Luis Durango, and Scott Hairston to choose from (and what about Matt Stairs?)  Clearly the club can't carry all those players, so someone or several someones are not going to be playing in SD next season.  If I was a betting man, I'd suspect Gwynn Jr, Hairston, and Stairs are gone, Blanks goes back to first base, Cunningham to the minors, and the Padres keep Ludwick, Venable, Durango and Denorfia.

Chris Young, Ted Simmons, Podcasts, and Transitions

Hey it's been a week since our last post.  Some catch-up, and an announcement.

- Padres declined Chris Young's option for 2011.  The club would have paid him $8.5M for next season.  This move comes as no surprise, and Young was quoted last week saying he'd like to come back as a Padre if the financial details can be worked out.  As I discussed last week on the Podcast, it's definitely conceivable Young could return.  He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and Petco is built to maximize his strengths.  He has missed significant time due to injury the past 3 seasons, making him a high risk acquisition by another team; which also means the market won't really be there for his services, so his price should be relatively low despite his experience and success (he was an All-Star in 2007).

With only 3 of their rotation slots spoken for in 2011, re-signing CY makes a lot of sense.

- Ted Simmons has joined the Seattle Mariner front office, after two years as Bud Black's bench coach. Today the Veterans Committee for the Hall of Fame announced Ted will be one of the players they consider for induction.  Simmons' career WAR (50.40) is better than Jorge Posada's (46.00), a guy a certain segment of the baseball world is trying to tout as a first-ballot HOF.  Simmons finished in the MVP top 20 seven times from 1971-1982.  He's certainly worthy of consideration for the Hall, and good luck to him.

- Podcasts:  My stated intentions with the Podcast is to do one if any interesting Padre news breaks during that week.  That said, let's be realistic - two of the next 3 shows fall on Federal holidays, and you've probably got more important things to do those nights.  So the 18 Nov show is the next scheduled on we'll do.  That time may change to earlier in the night, but we'll discuss that next week.

Finally, a note on transitions.  The Bureau of Naval Personnel approved my retirement request; I'll leave the USN next summer after 20 years of service.  There's a lot of personal satisfaction on the job done, and some trepidation on what's to come.  I've worn the uniform in some capacity for over half my actual life and all of my adult life.  Not only do I now have to find a color other than khaki to wear to work every day, I have to find a job, plus all the normal check-out items that need to be completed before I leave active service (of which medical is probably the most important).

Why am I telling you this?  Because in preparation for that transition this blog will necessarily become a lower priority for me.  So, it's going to go dark this winter for extended periods of time.  I plan to post when appropriate, and I am writing weekly over at I-70 Baseball if you need to a 'Mike fix', but will be concentrating on other things.

I expect to be back full-force for spring training.

Thanks to all of you who've commented here, or just stopped by to read what I've written.  A special thank-you to Gaslamp Ball and Ducksnorts for the many links during the 2010 season. Remember:  I'm not going away, just turning down the wattage for a while.  See you around.

Garland, Gonzalez, Torrealba Options Resolved

The Padres picked up Adrian Gonzalez's 2011 option yesterday.  As if there was any doubt.

According to Baseball Reference, Gonzalez had the highest NL WAR for position players not named Albert Pujols, and 4th highest overall (fangraphs is not as enamored; they rank Gonzo 13th in the league).  Gonzalez's value by Fangraphs came in at $21.1 million; his actual 2011 contract option is for $5.5 million.

Two other options were reported yesterday by XX1090 during the drive home.  Jon Garland exercised his player option and declined to return to San Diego in 2011.  He receives the $300K buyout.  Yorvit Torrealba also declined his $3.5 million option for 2011, and he receives a $500K buyout.

Gonzo gets a $750K raise.  The Padres spent $800K and cleared $10.25M off the books for 2011, making $9.45M more available to sign players in 2011.

I'm a little surprised Torrealba declined to return, however, 2010 was his best season in the majors.  He had the most PA he's had since 2007, and he put up his best-ever WAR (2.4, again by Fangraphs).  He's 32 years old.  Perhaps he thinks he proved himself this past season, and believes he can find an everyday catching gig on the free agent market.  That's certainly possible.  I love an optimist, so best of luck Yorvit.

I'm not all that surprised Garland is leaving.  He seemed irritated at how he was used by Black, especially towards the end of the season.  There were a couple of games (against the Giants in early September, against the Cubs the last home game of the season) where he either was visibly upset at being lifted, or verbally indicated he was miffed in the post-game interview.  Garland professed to really wanting to pitch at Petco when the Padres signed him in the off-season; things must have gone sour indeed for him to leave after only one season. 

Garland had the best K/9 rate, and the second-worst BB/9 rate, of his career in 2010.  His xFIP was the seocnd-lowest of his career, so he pitched about as well as he could; yet his WAR was the lowest it had ever been when throwing 200+ innings (and his lowest since 2001, his second year in the majors).  His 3.47 ERA was the best of his career.

How crowded would the Padres rotation have been in 2011?  Latos, Richard, and Stauffer return.  Young has an $8.5M club option.  Correia is a free agent.  LeBlanc is probably done as a starter.  There was room for Garland here in 2011, had he opted to stay.

Well Jon it was fun while it lasted.  Wish you could have stopped that 10-game losing streak before it reached 10 games.

Bruce Bochy, Tim Flannery win a World Series

Wouldn't it have been better to write that headline while both were still members of the Padres organization?  Yes, yes it would.

I was asked in conversation who I would root for in the playoffs, and although I did not pick a team, I did state I would root for the NL representative to win the World Series.  Even if that rep was the Dodgers.  I believe the only professional league in the world still playing baseball like it was meant to be played is our league, the National League, and I want to see it succeed.  Mission accomplished, and congratulations to the San Francisco Giants.

I couldn't watch the post-game celebrations without thinking what might have been for San Diego.  I doubt any Padre fan could.  San Diego was the better team head-to-head, and had a better interleague record; but the Giants were 32-22 against the rest of the NL West, and the Padres were 26-28.  That was the difference.  San Fran was a 1/2 game better against the NL Central and 3.5 games better against the NL East than the Padres.  Still, San Diego had a chance to win the division on the last day of the season.

Which leaves one to wonder:  How far would San Diego have gotten in the post-season?  I don't think anyone can really say; after all, what predictive software program had the Rangers knocking off the Yankees?  I do think that the Padres would not have had enough offense to survive a first-round matchup with Atlanta or Philadelphia.  The Giants got contributions and power up and down their lineup:  Renteria, Ross, Posey, Burrell, Uribe, the list goes on.  San Diego didn't have that outside of Gonzalez and Tejada.  Pitching-wise, San Diego's rotation was not nearly as deep as San Francisco's, although our bullpen is their's equal.

I think the Padres, had they qualified, would have bowed out in the LDS round, and there would have been no shame in that; after all, this team was picked to finish last by most.

With the Giants win we close out the first decade of the new millennium, and what a decade it was for the World Series.

• Arizona, Anaheim, Colorado, Houston, Tampa Bay, and Texas all made their first World Series Appearance, with Arizona and Anaheim winning their first ever championship.
• We saw long streaks end - Boston ended a 90 year drought; the White Sox an 88 year drought; San Francisco a 56 year drought.
• Only the Red Sox won multiple titles.
• The old guard teams continue to dominate, though.  The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and Cardinals won 40% of the league titles (2 each) in the decade.

So other than the end of season awards, that wraps up the 2010 baseball season.  Now our attention turns to Adrian Gonzalez's contract negotiations, and the club options for Jon Garland and Chris Young.

Moping and the LCS

With the off-season in it's third full week, there's little to do on the San Diego front besides wait for Chris Young to be released, and the start of the Padres vs Adrian Gonzalez contract squabbling that will end with Gonzo making $22M a year in Boston.

So we're left with watching the LCS series on Fox and TBS.  After 5 played games, I have some thoughts.

• To this point Texas is a much better team than New York.  Think about this:  the Rangers are one bad seven hitter sequence away from leading this series 3-0. I didn't think they'd be up 2-1 at this point, and I suspect most folks didn't either.
• It's funny to see the Yankee series relegated to TBS.  And satisfying too; at least now the country will be treated to some of the MLB's other good teams.
• This Phillies/Giants series is going seven.  Neither team is hitting much right now anyway, and the pitching both have has been dominant.  I just don't see either team pulling away, unless the Giants start to activate and start Barry Zito.
• You think Cody Ross is going to see any more inside fastballs this series?
• The Yankees series hopes rest on AJ Burnett's right arm.  Good luck, New York.  Although I say that knowing Burnett will probably throw a 2-hitter over 7 innings tonight.

I'll probably do a Podcast again Thursday.  I'll have an update here Thursday AM either way.

We Pause Briefly to Bash the Chargers

Rams 20, Chargers 17.  I am a Ram fan from way back, and sit in my Jack Youngblood jersey as I type this.

So HAH!  San Diego has never beaten the Rams.  Ever.

Oh and those of you scratching your head on how the Chargers could lose to a team that was 1-15 last year, and lost 44-6 to Detroit last week?  Here's why.  The Chargers cannot win on the road, and aren't as good as their rankings.  They aren't losing to inferior teams anymore - they are losing to teams as good as they are. 

Harsh?  Yep.  But consider:

• Lose once to a bad team (KC) it's a fluke.
• Twice (SEA) it's coincidence. 
• Thrice (OAK) it's a trend.
• Four times (STL) you are what you are.

No one will confuse those four teams with Super Bowl contenders.  The Chargers shouldn't be considered a contender either.

How would the Padres have done?

Day 1 of the playoffs is in the books.  Philadelphia's Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds 4-0.  Since both those teams could have been Padres opponents, I thought:  How would the Padres have done?

1.  Would Halladay have no-hit San Diego?  With the stuff he had last night, Roy Halladay would have no-hit the '27 Yankees.  More to the point, here are the Reds and Padres relative NL rankings in various hitting categories:

• Average:  Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
• OBP:  Reds (2nd), Padres (13th)
• Slugging:   Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
• ISO:  Reds (2nd), Padres (15th)
• And of course, wOBA Reds (1st), Padres (15th).

So if Roy Halladay could no-hit the Reds last night, who were in the top 2 in most offensive categories (including nose hair), the Padres would have gotten clobbered.  And probably had a perfect game thrown at them.  Can't you see Ryan Ludwick flailing wildly at all those 'palm balls' Halladay flicked up there?

2.  Would the Padres have no-hit Cincinnati?  A little more difficult to answer.  The game would have been here, so that's an advantage for the Padre starter.  Who would have been the Padre starter?  Chris Young would have pitched the Monday play-in game, so Bud Black's options were Jon Garland on extra rest or Clayton Richard on full rest (let's eliminate Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos from consideration; no way they start Game 1 on short rest).

• Neither Garland nor Richard have thrown a no-hitter in their careers to date.
• Garland has 2 post-season starts; he allowed 4 ER in 16 IP (ERA:  2.25) as a White Sox in 2005.  Richard has never started a post-season game.
• The Reds hit .275/.335/.437 against RHP and .265/.346/.434 against LHP.  That's known as a wash.  No advantage there.
• The Padres lost both of Richard's starts against Cincinnati this season.  The Padres were 4-2 against Cincinnati overall.  Garland's teams are 2-2 in his career when he started against the Reds.

So probably Garland.  Garland would have 6 days rest between starts (last start 30 Sept).  He is 14-16 career with a 4.86 ERA when starting on that much rest.  He did throw a 4-hitter at the Cubs in that 30 Sept start, but it was a wet cold day in San Diego, which probably helped him out.  If pinned into a corner, I'd say no, the Padres don't no-hit Cincinnati.

Of course, it doesn't matter.  San Diego lost last Sunday.  Which meant I had to do this today.

That's A Wrap

It seemed too much to ask, for the Phillies to take a third game from Atlanta, and for the Padres to sweep San Francisco.  Turned out, it was.

The Phillies third and fourth stringers put up a pretty valiant effort, trimming a 6-run deficit to 1 with two out in the eighth, but it was too much to overcome.  It didn't matter, because the Padres controlled their own destiny on this day.  Win and you move on.  Lose and you go home.

Losing 3-0 in San Francisco isn't shameful. What will haunt these Padres, other than the 10-game losing streak, is all the men they left on base Sunday.  Ludwick striking out in the second with two on and two out.  Torrealba's double play grounder after the first two men reached to start the sixth.  Tejada striking out with two on and two out in the seventh.  Latos pitched well enough - 2 runs allowed should not be enough to kill a team - but on this day it was.

The Padres have some major decisions to make this off-season.  No one wants to see a 90-win team dismantled, but there's a very real possibility that might happen (to wit:  Chris Young, Jon Garland, and Gonzo account for $20.75 mil in payroll if the Padres pick up all their options).  Then there's the question of Tejada and Ludwick - do they return for 2011?  Does Heath Bell come back?  What of Kyle Blanks?  And so on.

We will go into those questions over the coming weeks.

For now, revel in the season that was.  Heck, I thought 82-80 and third place was optimistic as a prediction.  They exceeded that, kept us riveted all season, and fell just short.  It was a lot of fun, even if the final result is not one we wanted, and I for one can't wait for 2011.

That's Two

Headaches felled your correspondent this afternoon, meaning I didn't watch the game.  So, at 4pm, I groggily reached for my iTouch.  Initially I read the score SFO 4, SDG 2.  Oh, well - at least we tried.

Then I realized it was San Diego that had won 4-2.  And, Philadelphia was beating Atlanta 5-0 (they would eventually win 7-0).  Holy cow.

Ryan Ludwick's home run in the second inning Friday night might be the biggest hit of the season for San Diego.  It snapped their scoreless inning funk at 13, gave them the early lead, and I think both relaxed the Padres and put pressure on the Giants.  Who would have thunk that, given how much Ludwick has struggled since the trade.

Tim Stauffer was great.  But a one hitter through six?  Unbelieveable.  Padres scored enough early and held on.  Kudos to Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams, and Heath Bell for slamming the door.  Well, partial credit goes to Jose Guillen for swinging aggressively and rolling into the 6-3 DP to end it.

I thought after the game "Gee, I think Gregerson, Adams, and Bell have pitched 3 consecutive games.  Will they be available Sunday?"  Actually it's more than that - Adams has worked in five straight games, Bell and Gregerson 4.  This article in the U-T discusses the bullpen.  Here's the money quote from Gregerson:

"I told [Darrel Ackerfelds] and Bud (Black) to stop asking me how I feel," said Gregerson. "Let's go. We're trying to win here. It's all hands on deck."

Looks like they will pitch Sunday if called upon.  I love it.  Gregerson's outlook matches mine - they've got all winter to rest if they don't win tomorrow.

San Diego's odds of making the playoffs stood at 7.5% headed into Friday night.  Now they stand at 52.3%. Wouldn't you know it, the season will come down to Mat Latos and Jonathan 'Big Mouth' Sanchez.  How appropriate.  Never going to look back, Big Mouth, once you pass the Padres?  Look in the rearview mirror.

There is no pressure at all tomorrow on the Padres.  It's all on the Giants.  The only thing going for SF right now is they will be part of a one-game playoff they end up tied with someone else.  San Diego can't say that, and neither can Atlanta.  If either team loses while the other wins, the loser is out.  Should make for compelling baseball.

Tear yourself away from the Charger game on your computer and watch the Padres/Giants.  Screw the Chargers.  They suck for the first 1/4 of the season anyway.

That's One

How big was that double play in the ninth?  Thank you Freddy Sanchez.

Padres get it done.  Now they can focus on tomorrow's game.  Philadelphia routed Atlanta, so the Padres gain ground in both races.

Nice to see Ryan Ludwick packed his big bat for this series, even if he struck out 3 times following his second inning HR.  Nice to see the Padres jump all over Matt Cain early to take the crowd out of the game for most of it; they re-appeared in the sixth when San Fran scored 3 to get back in the game, but we were into the strength of our bullpen by that point.

Adrian Gonzalez had a rare bad game with the glove, but I can live with that, especially considering he tattooed a ball for the 3-run HR in the fourth.  Didn't hurt.  Meant Bell had to face the heart of the Giant order in the ninth, but Sanchez sucked the wind out of that inning.

Some noise was made pre-game about Giant manager Bruce Bochy moving Cain up to Friday so they could clinch and get it over with.  Perhaps there was another reason:

1. Matt Cain 2010 splits:
1. Day Games - 73.1 IP, 7 HR, 3-4, 3.31 ERA
2. Night Games - 146 IP, 12 HR, 10-6, 2.77 ERA
2. Barry Zito 2010 splits:
1. Day Games - 43 IP, 6 HR, 2-2, 3.77 ERA
2. Night Games - 153.1 IP, 14 HR, 7-11, 4.17 ERA

Cain was definitely better at night than Zito, and Saturday's game is a day tilt.  I'm sure that figured into his reasoning.

Padre prospects for making the playoffs are noticeably brighter now than they were 24 hours ago.  This team can beat Zito.  Then it's a one-game playoff against 'Big Mouth' Sanchez for all the marbles.  Should Philly sweep Atlanta, and the Padres pull off the improbable, there is no playoff, San Diego wins the division, and San Francisco draws Philly in the NLDS.

Wouldn't that be sweet.

Wet, Gloomy Day at Petco

Work permitted, so I headed down to Petco for yesterday's regular season finale.

Initially weather did not cooperate:







I've been going to Padres games upwards of 20 years, and that's the first time I can remember seeing the tarp on the field.  Exciting.  Seats were soaked, so I skulked with my beer at the top of our section awaiting the wife's arrival.  Which was delayed, because she had inadvertently left her ticket and the parking pass at home (I took the trolley down from work). 

She didn't have to head home, as we can get a reprinted ticket as season ticket holders, which was nice. After some gymnastics to get the car parked - traffic downtown at 4pm yesterday was far, far worse than I've seen it recently - we watched the game from our rain-soaked seats.  Some high (lowlights):

• I know it doesn't rain much in San Diego, and almost never during the baseball season.  But even so, shouldn't the stadium designers have included a rudimentary drainage system for the low points in each deck?  We spent the game with our feet in 2 inches of water.
• Why did Yorvit Torrealba try to swipe second in the second inning?  I was buying more beer and turned around in time to see him thrown out by 200 feet.  A catcher should never try a straight steal (unless he's John Wathan), and especially should never try to steal on a wet track like yesterday's infield.  Was there a missed hit and run there?  Did Yorvit look back at the plate as he headed to second?  I need to know.
• San Diego was no-hit for the last 7.1 innings.  Enough said.
• I was somewhat surprised Jon Garland left the game in the seventh after only 95 pitches.  It worked out for the Padres, but still I was surprised.  He threw as well yesterday as I have seen him throw in person.
• There was a noticeable change in the mood every time Ryan Ludwick stepped in.  A 'geez, this guy's terrible, here comes another strikeout' vibe.  Ludwick absorbed a smattering of boos after popping out to CF to end the sixth (with Venable on third, the only Padre to make it that far yesterday).  In the ninth, the fans got up for Tejada's leadoff at-bat, stayed up for Gonzo's, then got quiet, resigned to Ludwick making an out.  Which he promptly did.  It's very frustrating watching Ludwick.  He's trying, but he's in a horrific slump.

In the third inning Aaron Cunningham hit a ball into the stands.  It wasn't a line drive, but it was hit well and had some pace on it.  Although several people tried to make a play, it sailed through the stands and struck an 8-year old boy (approximate age) on the head.  How hard was that ball hit?  It caromed back onto the field.  Immediately people started motioning for the ushers to come over and assist.

Amazingly the blow did not draw blood.  Eventually, EMT's showed up to evaulate his condition.

Count seven rows of seats from the left side of this photo, and look for the bald guy just to the right of the guy in the white t-shirt standing with his arm raised.  That's where the kid was.  You can see it's 30 feet easy from there to the grass, where the ball landed after it bounced off him.

The kid stayed another 2 innings, then he and his dad left.  Some of the fans in that section applauded the kid as he walked out, which was cool.  He looked pretty dazed to me, even 30 minutes later.  I hope his dad found his common sense and took the boy to a doctor for further evaluation.

I'm not a moralist, and I'm probably the last guy to give parenting advice, but hey dads - your primary function when at a baseball game with small children is to protect your children.  Letting your son/daughter get clocked by a foul ball?  FAIL.  Get in the way next time.  I'd rather take a line drive off the balls than see my son struck because I was more concerned with getting a souvenir than protecting him.

The kid did at least get to keep the ball.  Small consolation in my mind today, he might feel differently about it later on.

Padres got shut out, it rained, and a little kid got struck with a foul ball.  Pretty much sums up a lousy day at the ball park.  Oh yeah - for my 20 home games the Padres went 7-13.  Depressing.

***
It all comes down to this weekend.  San Diego should not focus on winning all 3 games.  They need to focus on beating Matt Cain tonight.  It really quite simple - if they don't win today, tomorrow's game doesn't mean anything.  So focus on the now.

Granted, there is also the very real possibility the Padres could be eliminated tonight, if they lose and the Braves win.  But let's not think about that.  San Diego is 2-0 against Cain this season when he's paired with Clayton Richard.  Focus on that.

It should be raucous in Pac Bell Park tonight.  Hey Padres - Feed off that.  Reach deep inside and stop the tide.

Will Venable and Chris Young save the season

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

Admit it:  after the double steal, you didn't think there was any way the Padres would get out of the first inning without allowing a run.  Not with Byrd, Aramis Ramirez, and X Nady due.  I sure didn't; I figured escaping while allowing only 1 run would be Above Average.

Emphasizing how important that sequence was, Bud Black brought the infield in for the THIRD HITTER OF THE GAME.  When was the last time you saw that?  What is a more powerful testimony to how much the Padre offense is struggling?

Cue the music.  Chris Young escaped on an easy chopper to third, one ridiculously well-placed fastball that tied Ramirez up, and a flailing strikeout of Nady.  Wow.

AP/Lenny Ignelzi

But that was nothing.  Will Venable topped that by robbing Soriano of extra bases leading off the second.  Enberg (live) and Leitner (on the Padre Replay this AM, courtesy of XX1090) both called is as taking a HR away.  From the excellent vantage point of my couch 20 miles away, it looked like Venable didn't go over the fence to catch it.  Sadly Channel 4 never offered a shot along the fence line that could have determined it, and I don't know if WGN/ESPN had a better shot of the catch.  Either way it saved a run; if the ball doesn't clear the fence, Soriano scores on Koyie Hill's double later in the inning.

But THAT was nothing.  Ramirez didn't miss a fastball in his next AB, hitting the high hard one a loong way into LC.  Venable, not slowing down and not giving up, leapt into the stands to make a spectacular catch, robbing Ramirez of a 2-run HR, and ending the inning.

The description above does not do that catch justice.  With the season on the line, playing for the first time in three days thanks to a balky back, in a game they could not afford to lose, nursing a tenuous 1-run lead, what a play by Will Venable.  San Diego should have been down 3-1 at that point, and could have been down 4 or 5-1.  Instead, they added single runs in the 4th and 6th, winning 3-0.

Unfortunately, Atlanta cruised past Florida, while Ian Kennedy made one bad pitch to Pat Burrell which he hit for a 3-run bomb, giving Tim Lincecum all the cushion he would need in a 3-1 Giants win.

San Diego still controls its destiny.  Win out and win the West.  That said, they could really use a Arizona win today coupled with a win over Chicago.  Winning two of 3 in San Fran will be very difficult; the Padres have to beat up Zito Saturday, and will need to find a way to beat either Cain or Sanchez.  Asking them to sweep this weekend series in order to qualify for the post-season is bordering on impossible.  Not with this lineup.

This morning Scott and BR brought up 1996, and the famous Padre 3-game sweep of the Dodgers to win the West.  There is one crucial difference.  That year the Dodgers had qualified for the post-season before the series started; the only question was would the Padres make it in or not.  This year, nothing is decided, and both teams face the very real possibility they could miss the post-season altogether if they lose the series.  San Francisco has a lot more incentive to win than the Dodgers did in 96.  Seeing as the Padres have dominated the season series, I would think the last team SF wants to play in the NLCS is San Diego.  Other than Philadelphia, that is.

Another big game this afternoon.  I should be there, work and weather permitting.  Podcast tonight.

Not much left to say

I said they had to win last night's game.  Is it worth repeating again today?

Two back (on the loss side) of both Atlanta and San Francisco with 5 to play.  Unless they find a way to generate some offense, and win the next two games from Chicago, the weekend series in 'Frisco won't mean a thing.

Come on guys. You've played too well for too long to give up now. Forget about last night.  Get today's game.

That One Hurt

Carlos Zambrano has pitched very well lately.  Tim Stauffer has pitched well all season.  Even with that I had a sneaking suspicion the Padres would lose last night.  I didn't expect it to be a frustrating loss, which it certainly was.

Either Mark Grant or Dick Enberg said during the telecast Zambrano is one of those pitchers you have to get to early.  I've never considered him in the same vein as Greg Maddux, who most definitely was a pitcher you had to get to early. This is kind of a silly comment, now that I think aboutit.  If you make any pitcher labor early they either will give up more runs overall, or leave the game sooner leaving it up to the long men in the bullpen.  So don't you always want to get to a pitcher early? The Padres definitely had opportunities in the first two innings, most notably thwarted by Chase Headley's line drive DP to X Nady.  Ugh.  If it was only 3 feet higher.

After Chicago pushed across their run in the seventh, the Padres had a good chance to tie in the bottom half and flubbed it.  Luckily we have Geoff at Ducksnorts to explain how they flubbed it.  Geoff does a much better job of articulating what I kind of knew intrinsically but couldn't explain.  I turned to my wife and said, "Ball Game" when that inning ended. 

Of course that was before the bizarre bottom of the ninth happened.  Yorvit with a hustle play.  Headley "hit" by a pitch that clearly bounced between his feet.  Tony Gwynn Jr walked (where was that in the seventh?).  Here's Nick Hundley.  I thought he hit that 2-1 pitch out from my couch; he actually got it off the end of the bat and it died in deep LF.

Here's a random thought - why not bunt there?  Who in the world would expect Nick Hundley to bunt in that situation?  You gotta get a run; Torrealba already slid into first to beat a throw (which was, for once, absolutely the right play).  Nick's a pretty good hitter, but by hook or by crook, right?  Not saying it was wrong for him to swing away (it wasn't; a single wins the game).  I was tired and it popped into my head.

The results of that game, as you probably know by now, dropped the Padres a game behind SF and out of the Wild Card lead.  It's really going to be tough to win the division now.  Basically the Padres have to win the rest of the games in this series, then take 2 of 3 from SF.  Should AZ take a game off the Giants it helps, because there's more margin for error, but the Padres would still need to win 2 of 3 to take the division.  Expecting AZ to win more than one game from SF is unrealistic.

It might be unrealistic to expect the Diamondbacks to win one game.  Who knows.  We'll know for sure Friday morning.

Latos makes his biggest start of the year tonight.  Padres gotta win this game.  They just gotta.

Seven Game Sprint

I should probably give some explanation to my last post.  As you know from reading the game recap, if nothing else, David Eckstein was not intentionally walked to get to Miguel Tejada on Friday night.  I did not see this game live, as I was on a softball diamond in the Mira Mesa area, and was monitoring the action from my iPhone.  The Gameday graphics showed the first 3 pitches to be waaaay outside - like splitting the left handed batters box outside.  It sure looked like he was being pitched around to get to Tejada, which made no sense, and still makes no sense.

Hence the post.  Guess Posnanski won't be covering this one.

Anywho, we reach the last week of the regular season.  I have a Baseball Digest post pending talking about this next series with the Cubs.  In a perfect world, the Diamondbacks would sweep San Fran, San Diego would sweep the Cubs, and we'd go to the Bay Area with a 3-game lead and 3 to play.  Since San Diego holds the season series edge (10-5 at this point), the NL West would be ours.  That's probably not going to happen.

So what, realistically, should our expectations be?  Splitting this series with the Cubs is absolutely essential.  You gotta figure the Giants are going to get at least 2 of their 3 games with AZ.  Splitting the 4 game series sends San Diego to San Fran 1 game back with 3 to play.  Still a tall order, but do-able, to win 2 of those 3 and the Division.  Should the Giants sweep, well, then the Padres would have to sweep to win the division, and that's probably not going to happen.

I think the club can take 2 of these games from the Cubs, most likely the last two (against Wells and Gorzelanny).  Getting one of the first 2 (against a hot Zambrano and Dempster, the Cub ace) will be a taller order. At least we have Latos going on Tuesday, well, hopefully the May-August Latos.

Starters for the AZ/SF series:

• Rodrigo Lopez vs Sanchez
• Ian Kennedy vs Bumgarner
• Barry Enright vs Lincecum

AZ has a shot at two of those games, although admittedly it depends on which Sanchez shows up.  Kennedy has thrown every bit as well as Bumgarner.  Enright is no slouch, but let's face it, Lincecum is hot so advantage SF.

In any case, buckle your seat belts.  It's going to be a heck of a week.

I Don't Get It, but Thank You

Let's set the scene:  First and third, 2 out, Cincinnati leading by a run.  Arthur Rhodes on the mound, David Eckstein stepping in.  Rhodes was an All-Star this season, has an ERA+ of 200, and sits third in the NL in holds (a meaningless statistic yes, but anyway).

Eckstein career against Rhodes - 3 for 9, HR, HBP
Tejada career against Rhodes - 4 for 20, 2 BB, no extra base hits.

Dusty Baker pops out of the dugout.  He signals the bullpen for Nick Masset.  Masset has had a good year too, but not as good as Rhodes (not an All-Star, ERA+ 114, better K/9 but worse WHIP, 16th in holds)

Eckstein career vs Masset:  Never faced.
Tejada career vs Masset:  2 for 5, no extra base hits.

Baseball is fun because baseball is replete with small sample sizes, and many many MANY decisions are made based on small snippets of information.  I suspect Dusty Baker had these snippets at his disposal.  Small sample sizes are fraught with danger, but even so one COULD say Tejada had better numbers against Masset than Rhodes.  With the game on the line one would think the best matchup is what the manager seeks to set up, and in that vein Rhodes vs Tejada seems to be the best matchup.

Given that, why in the world would he have Masset pitch to Tejada instead of Rhodes, if he was going to walk Eckstein?

On another slightly less controversial subject, WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD DUSTY BAKER INTENTIONALLY WALK ANYBODY TO PUT THE GO AHEAD RUN IN SCORING POSITION?

Wait - why am I complaining?  Thanks Dusty, for the gift tonight, and the NL Wild Card lead.  Please, continue doing what it is you do.

I hope Joe Posnanski tears this decision apart in about 5000 words.  I look forward to that read.

Back in First Place



"Don't worry, boys - I got this."

Does the air seem cleaner today?  The sky brighter, traffic lighter, and people happier than yesterday?  It could be the Wednesday AM drizzle cleared out some of the lingering summer crap.  OR, it could be the Padres return to first place.



Yes, thanks to the Diamondbacks beating the Colorado Ubaldos, and Chicago shutting out the Giants, San Diego returns to their rightful place atop the NL West.  Philadelphia's sweep of Atlanta also pushed the Padres ahead of the Braves in the Wild Card race.

Overnight, San Diego's playoff odds jumped from 44.1% to 61.9%.  Awesome.

Miguel Tejada provided the big blow with his 300th career HR, and that's a big milestone to be sure.  But let us pause a moment and consider what Tim Stauffer has done in the rotation lately.  He's made for high leverage starts in September, thrown 21 innings, allowed 6 runs.  Four of those came in the same game, last Thursday in St Louis; 3 of those runs scored because Albert Pujols' RBI dying flare landed JUUUUUST out of Ryan Ludwick's reach, and Yadier Molina's hit a 2 RBI flare off Ryan Webb in a perfect spot (on the RF line out of everyone's reach).

Overall he's thrown 26 innings as a starter and posted a 2.08 ERA.  In September he's been the best Padre starter not named Clayton Richard.  With Jon Garland's and Mat Latos' struggles, Stauffer has been essential to keeping San Diego in the playoff hunt.  It is not an exaggeration to say the Padres probably would be dead and buried without him.

Mat Latos will start today against Hiroki Kuroda.  Frankly I'm a bit surprised by this.  Yes he did get an extra day of rest following his Friday start/drubbing in St Louis, but I kind of expected San Diego to skip his turn in the rotation and have Chris Young start today on normal rest.  Granted, CY has not beaten LA in LA since 2007 (and in fact has only beaten the Dodgers once up there), but it seemed a good time to rest Latos.

The Cardinals and Giants attacked Latos early in the count with great success.  It will be quite interesting to see how Latos adjusts to that strategy in this start.

The Padres Trail Podcast returns tonight!  We've a lot to talk about.  Hope you can listen in.