Friday, February 19, 2010

Podcasts and Projected Rosters

After a two week hiatus (out of town on business, then down with 'flu-like' symptoms that actually felt like the flu), the Padres Trail Podcast returned last night. The show didn't quite go the full 30 minutes. I start off with a Reggie Bush rant - this is because I'm "Hacksaw" Hamilton is the drive-time sports talk guy at XX1090, and he was advocating USC sue Bush should they be put on probation by the NCAA - so if you don't want to listen to that, blaze past the first 9 minutes or so.

Last night's theme was the 2010 roster. Continuing that theme, I took a look at said roster for who's got a spot on it, what spots are still open competition, and how the team grades out in wins. Here's the chart:

I used 2009 WAR values to build the projected wins for 2010. No player will exactly repeat his season production year-to-year, but for this gross analysis I thought the numbers sufficient. Most prognosticators who've published a NL West projection are putting the Padres down for 75 wins. I think this team is better, and their 2009 WAR values support that. I believe 81-81 is a distinct possibility for this club, and as their confidence grows from hanging around the pennant race all summer, who knows what will happen?

Some other comments:
  1. The starting lineup is pretty much set. There isn't any open competition, at least any I see, for a starting slot coming out of spring training.
  2. Conventional wisdom is this team's bench looks vastly improved over last season. Based on the WAR values, I agree.
  3. I left SP #5 open because I think there'll be competition for it, even with Latos the heir-apparent in that slot.
  4. If Chris Young gets close to his former self, this team should will 81 games EASILY.
  5. Perdomo has a good rep, but I'm not sure he'll make the team out of spring training. -0.7 WAR is pretty bad anyone, especially a relief pitcher.

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