Last night's theme was the 2010 roster. Continuing that theme, I took a look at said roster for who's got a spot on it, what spots are still open competition, and how the team grades out in wins. Here's the chart:
I used 2009 WAR values to build the projected wins for 2010. No player will exactly repeat his season production year-to-year, but for this gross analysis I thought the numbers sufficient. Most prognosticators who've published a NL West projection are putting the Padres down for 75 wins. I think this team is better, and their 2009 WAR values support that. I believe 81-81 is a distinct possibility for this club, and as their confidence grows from hanging around the pennant race all summer, who knows what will happen?
Some other comments:
- The starting lineup is pretty much set. There isn't any open competition, at least any I see, for a starting slot coming out of spring training.
- Conventional wisdom is this team's bench looks vastly improved over last season. Based on the WAR values, I agree.
- I left SP #5 open because I think there'll be competition for it, even with Latos the heir-apparent in that slot.
- If Chris Young gets close to his former self, this team should will 81 games EASILY.
- Perdomo has a good rep, but I'm not sure he'll make the team out of spring training. -0.7 WAR is pretty bad anyone, especially a relief pitcher.