When the team is struggling, the last place they want to go is the one place they always struggle. So here we go again in Arizona. In case you weren't aware, San Diego has lost two of every 3 games they have played in the Desert. Losing 2-1 last night didn't surprise me at all, even though Jon Garland again threw well, and even though Arizona sent a rookie to the hill.
With Richard taking the hill against Rodrigo Lopez, and Latos tomorrow against Joe Saunders, the pitching match-ups still favor the Padres. They can win this series. In a year where they've defied all conventional wisdom, winning a series in Arizona would be par for the course.
Just because it's Saturday, and this is a quick-hitter, how have our two trade deadline acquisitions fared so far (WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE)
Tejada: 8 games, 34 PA, 6 for 32, 2B, HR, 2 SO, .188/.235/.313 (with Baltimore: .269/.308/.362). Struggling a bit. It seems that every time I watch Tejada hit he gets jammed. He must lead the world in pop-ups.
Ludwick: 6 games, 22 PA, 4 for 19, 0 XBH, 5 SO, .211/.318/.211 (with St Louis: .281/.343/.418). Also struggling a bit. Ludwick spent most of this season hitting in front of Albert Pujols. Did that inflate his numbers? I sure hope not.
May be a quiet rest of the weekend from here - reunions and adult baseball are on the docket.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Sometimes you get the bear...
...and sometimes the bear gets you. When the Padres smacked LA around the Ravine 10-5 on Monday I briefly entertained thoughts of a sweep. How great would that have been? Dodgers effectively buried for 2010. Things didn't work out that way, and we go into tonight's game hoping for a split of the four game series.
Let's put this in perspective. LA and SD have played 6 games over the last week and are 3-3. The Dodgers are no closer to first place today than they were last Wednesday (7 back). Before these 7-games-in-10-days started, I thought it realistic that San Diego could win four of the seven games (2 of 3 at home, split in LA). They can still do that.
Also, it's tough to beat a team when:
San Diego has a tough task today, seeing as Chad Billingsley hasn't allowed a run to San Diego over his last 13 2/3 innings pitched. In contrast, Kevin Correia has allowed 4 ER in both his 2010 starts against the Dodgers.
Podcast tonight at 10pm Pacific. Padres leave LA and head to that other house of horrors next (Arizona).
Let's put this in perspective. LA and SD have played 6 games over the last week and are 3-3. The Dodgers are no closer to first place today than they were last Wednesday (7 back). Before these 7-games-in-10-days started, I thought it realistic that San Diego could win four of the seven games (2 of 3 at home, split in LA). They can still do that.
Also, it's tough to beat a team when:
- You don't score a run for 17 consecutive innings (still active), and
- You don't get a hit for 14 1/3 innings (from Tejada's first inning HR Tuesday to Ludwick's single in the sixth last night).
San Diego has a tough task today, seeing as Chad Billingsley hasn't allowed a run to San Diego over his last 13 2/3 innings pitched. In contrast, Kevin Correia has allowed 4 ER in both his 2010 starts against the Dodgers.
Podcast tonight at 10pm Pacific. Padres leave LA and head to that other house of horrors next (Arizona).
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Ryan Ludwick? Really?
I think we all know our outfield hasn't exactly lit the lamp with the bat this year. Scott Hairston and Will Venable have been league average hitters; Tony Gwynn Jr OPS+ hovers at 82. Ludwick addresses that need in a big way. His OPS+ is 120; he'll be the best offensive outfielder on the club as soon as he's assigned a number.
My concern for the Padres, in making trades, was that they not upset their run prevention model. That is why I am not completely sold on the Miguel Tejada deal. I have no such reservations with this move. Ludwick is enjoying his best defensive year (based on Dewan plus/minus; he is +5 defensively), which immediately makes him the second-best outfielder on the club behind Gwynn. He can also play all three positions defensively, giving Bud Black tons of flexibility with the roster.
Ludwick became expendable in St Louis with the stellar play of Jon Jay. Ludwick is making $5.45M this season, is arbitration eligible for the 2011 campaign, and becomes a free-agent in 2012. It might be hard to believe, but the Cardinals dumped salary with this move. I don't know if this is a two-month rental or if the Padres will try to keep him for 2011. The cynic in me says this is a 2-month rental.
No matter. THIS is the bat the Padres needed to get, and THIS is the defender they need to bring in with that bat. Great move by the Padres.
Welcome to San Diego, Ryan Ludwick. You will like it here.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Intentionally walking Russell Martin
In real time I liked Bud Black's decision. Let us take a deeper look.
To reset the situation: top of the seventh inning of a scoreless game. Jon Garland had retired the first two hitters, and was ahead of Blake DeWitt 0-2. DeWitt singled softly to right. Garrett Anderson, on the next pitch, singled through the hole between first and second, DeWitt to third. Russell Martin is the next hitter, and pitcher Chad Billingsley is on deck. Joe Thatcher is warm in the bullpen. Garland had thrown 97 pitches.
What should Black do? Martin is 4-11 (including a 1-2 in this game) with a walk and hit batsman against Garland career, and 1-4 with a hit batsman against Thatcher. But looming on deck is Billingsley, who has retired 9 of the last 10 Padres he's faced, the lone exception being Yorvit Torrealba who he hit in the ribs with a fastball.
Black decides to walk Martin intentionally to force Torre's hand. Torre says "OK", and sends Andre Ethier up to pinch hit. Now Black could bring Thatcher in, but he decides to stay with Garland. Just for argument's sake:
Ethier vs Garland: 3-8, 1 double, 1 walk.
Ethier vs Thatcher: 2-8, both doubles.
Of course, if Garland retires Ethier, this blog post isn't written and the game might have been different. Actually they might still be playing. But instead, Ethier takes a 1-1 pitch and hits a ground ball just out of Everth Cabrera's reach, driving in 2 runs and as it turns out winning the game.
There are many, many folks who despise the intentional walk in any situation. I think there are times when the intentional walk is appropriate, and should be used. To get past a hot hitter or a good hitter, for instance. Martin isn't hitting any better since the All-Star break than he did the first part of the season (.245/.346/.332 before, .269/.345/.346 since), so I definitely would not classify him as hot and, based on how he's hit since the end of the 2008 season, not a good hitter either. There's a reason he's hitting eighth.
In hindsight, I don't like Bud Black's decision. I think I pitch to Russell Martin. I recognize that statement doesn't carry much weight since we know what the result of not pitching to him was.
To reset the situation: top of the seventh inning of a scoreless game. Jon Garland had retired the first two hitters, and was ahead of Blake DeWitt 0-2. DeWitt singled softly to right. Garrett Anderson, on the next pitch, singled through the hole between first and second, DeWitt to third. Russell Martin is the next hitter, and pitcher Chad Billingsley is on deck. Joe Thatcher is warm in the bullpen. Garland had thrown 97 pitches.
What should Black do? Martin is 4-11 (including a 1-2 in this game) with a walk and hit batsman against Garland career, and 1-4 with a hit batsman against Thatcher. But looming on deck is Billingsley, who has retired 9 of the last 10 Padres he's faced, the lone exception being Yorvit Torrealba who he hit in the ribs with a fastball.
Black decides to walk Martin intentionally to force Torre's hand. Torre says "OK", and sends Andre Ethier up to pinch hit. Now Black could bring Thatcher in, but he decides to stay with Garland. Just for argument's sake:
Ethier vs Garland: 3-8, 1 double, 1 walk.
Ethier vs Thatcher: 2-8, both doubles.
Of course, if Garland retires Ethier, this blog post isn't written and the game might have been different. Actually they might still be playing. But instead, Ethier takes a 1-1 pitch and hits a ground ball just out of Everth Cabrera's reach, driving in 2 runs and as it turns out winning the game.
There are many, many folks who despise the intentional walk in any situation. I think there are times when the intentional walk is appropriate, and should be used. To get past a hot hitter or a good hitter, for instance. Martin isn't hitting any better since the All-Star break than he did the first part of the season (.245/.346/.332 before, .269/.345/.346 since), so I definitely would not classify him as hot and, based on how he's hit since the end of the 2008 season, not a good hitter either. There's a reason he's hitting eighth.
In hindsight, I don't like Bud Black's decision. I think I pitch to Russell Martin. I recognize that statement doesn't carry much weight since we know what the result of not pitching to him was.
Padres Acquire Nick Green
My God. Has it really been two weeks?
Yes, it's the final Fiscal Year budget push. I've been a little distracted by, you know, doing the things I'm SUPPOSED to be doing vice doing the things I want to do. Sorry about that.
Since last seen, there's been two podcasts, and two Padres Recaps done. So there's been some activity, just not much. Since the last post, San Diego swept the Diamondbacks, lost 2 of three to Atlanta, and swept Pittsburgh. Now they prepare for a six-game homestand with LA and Florida. Let's hope the trend doesn't continue (which would mean they lose 2 of 3 to LA). Although sweeping Florida would be OK.
Other than the normal comings and goings of the DL (Latos on, then off; Adams on; Eckstein on; Venable off), the Padres signed two interesting players. On 19 July they signed Willy Mo Pena. Saturday they signed Nick Green.
Willy Mo Pena. Sounds like a country music star. When he played for the Red Sox in 2006, it was said he hit the ball harder than anyone else on the roster - and that team boasted Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz, two guys who can really hit. It's an interesting signing. Pena hasn't appeared in a game at the Major League level since 2008 with the Nationals, so it's completely risk-free. Pena has power, but doesn't hit for average. His career OPS+ is only 94, and he's struck out in 1/3 of his total at-bats at the major league level. Not only that, but he's a liability with the glove, at least based on Fangraphs data.
On it's a face, this is an all upside move for a guy with a ton of power. Realistically, he may surrender as many runs as he produces if he plays the outfield with regularity. I do like the move - it's creative, it's low risk - but I don't think we'll see Willy Mo Pena on the club before September if he's able to play himself into a roster spot.
Saturday the Padres signed Nick Green to a minor-league contract. San Diego has had a lot of injury trouble in the middle infield, and the aforementioned Eckstein is once again on the DL. Jerry Hairston Jr has been servicable - 89 OPS+, plus defender around the infield wherever he has played (3 runs saved at second, 5 at short, according to Dewan), but the guy manning the other position has not brought much offense to the team. Everth Cabrera - 59 OPS+. Lance Zawadzki - 61 and Oscar Salazar - 78. So there's a need for help in the middle infield.
Green is a decent defender - he saved 2 runs in limited action this year, and although his defense allowed 3 runs in 2009, that was the only season where he was not evaluated as a plus defender. Green's bat, however, is nothing special, and is no better than Cabrera or Zawadzki (.236/.305/.348 career in 1131 plate appearances).
The Padres are being creative in trying to improve, and that's a good thing. Each player offers something, be it a little better defense at second, or a little more dangerous bat in the outfield, with some risk (bad bat, below average glove).
Yes, it's the final Fiscal Year budget push. I've been a little distracted by, you know, doing the things I'm SUPPOSED to be doing vice doing the things I want to do. Sorry about that.
Since last seen, there's been two podcasts, and two Padres Recaps done. So there's been some activity, just not much. Since the last post, San Diego swept the Diamondbacks, lost 2 of three to Atlanta, and swept Pittsburgh. Now they prepare for a six-game homestand with LA and Florida. Let's hope the trend doesn't continue (which would mean they lose 2 of 3 to LA). Although sweeping Florida would be OK.
Other than the normal comings and goings of the DL (Latos on, then off; Adams on; Eckstein on; Venable off), the Padres signed two interesting players. On 19 July they signed Willy Mo Pena. Saturday they signed Nick Green.
Willy Mo Pena. Sounds like a country music star. When he played for the Red Sox in 2006, it was said he hit the ball harder than anyone else on the roster - and that team boasted Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz, two guys who can really hit. It's an interesting signing. Pena hasn't appeared in a game at the Major League level since 2008 with the Nationals, so it's completely risk-free. Pena has power, but doesn't hit for average. His career OPS+ is only 94, and he's struck out in 1/3 of his total at-bats at the major league level. Not only that, but he's a liability with the glove, at least based on Fangraphs data.
On it's a face, this is an all upside move for a guy with a ton of power. Realistically, he may surrender as many runs as he produces if he plays the outfield with regularity. I do like the move - it's creative, it's low risk - but I don't think we'll see Willy Mo Pena on the club before September if he's able to play himself into a roster spot.
Saturday the Padres signed Nick Green to a minor-league contract. San Diego has had a lot of injury trouble in the middle infield, and the aforementioned Eckstein is once again on the DL. Jerry Hairston Jr has been servicable - 89 OPS+, plus defender around the infield wherever he has played (3 runs saved at second, 5 at short, according to Dewan), but the guy manning the other position has not brought much offense to the team. Everth Cabrera - 59 OPS+. Lance Zawadzki - 61 and Oscar Salazar - 78. So there's a need for help in the middle infield.
Green is a decent defender - he saved 2 runs in limited action this year, and although his defense allowed 3 runs in 2009, that was the only season where he was not evaluated as a plus defender. Green's bat, however, is nothing special, and is no better than Cabrera or Zawadzki (.236/.305/.348 career in 1131 plate appearances).
The Padres are being creative in trying to improve, and that's a good thing. Each player offers something, be it a little better defense at second, or a little more dangerous bat in the outfield, with some risk (bad bat, below average glove).
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
The Fabulous Floating Podcast
I'm in New England this week on business, so the Podcast will start at 7:30 Pacific Time THIS WEEK ONLY.
I'll primarily be discussing the All-Star Game and some prognostications for the second half. I figured no one wanted to hear me trying to be coherent at 1 AM my local time - it would be funny, but probably wouldn't make for good radio.
See you then? Yes - see you then.
I'll primarily be discussing the All-Star Game and some prognostications for the second half. I figured no one wanted to hear me trying to be coherent at 1 AM my local time - it would be funny, but probably wouldn't make for good radio.
See you then? Yes - see you then.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Home Field
Finally. The NL wins again.
I only have three things to say:
I only have three things to say:
- Thank God someone else's team boasts the loser. After being saddled with three losses in the last 4 games, I had my fingers crossed.
- Home Field will mean more to the NL than the AL. The top two home records at the break (Atlanta, Mets) are NL teams. San Diego's home record is a not-too-shabby 27-19, and this team is built for this ballpark. It would be all kinds of awesome for the Padres to make the World Series, and host 4 of the 7 games. Heck, they might even win the thing.
- Marlon Byrd should have been the MVP. Brian McCann's double can't happen without Byrd's walk, and the AL has two on,one out, and a big ol' rally in progress without Byrd cutting down David Ortiz at second.
Friday, July 9, 2010
When will Latos take a break, and for how long?
I had an actual live caller and an actual participant in the chat room guest during last night's Podcast, which was all kinds of awesome. Nothing like having more than one person to talk to to make a discussion flow better. While we touched on a variety of topics (feel free to follow the above link to hear it all), the one I want to follow up on this morning is Mat Latos and his 'rest'.
To recap: Padres GM Jed Hoyer is on record saying the team wants to cap Latos' innings pitched at 150 for 2010.
Interestingly, there is precedent for giving a young pitcher a break in the middle of the season. Detroit promoted 20 year old phenom Rick Porcello to the majors last year. They had the same concerns the Padres currently do about overworking this prized prospect too early in his career, so they did two things. One, they limited his pitch count to less than 100 (which they stuck to until his 24th start on 28 August), and two, in an attempt to limit his innings they shut him down following his 5 July start for 15 days. Because this break coincided with the All-Star break, Porcello ended up only missing one start.
Porcello's numbers pre and post break are interesting:
To recap: Padres GM Jed Hoyer is on record saying the team wants to cap Latos' innings pitched at 150 for 2010.
Interestingly, there is precedent for giving a young pitcher a break in the middle of the season. Detroit promoted 20 year old phenom Rick Porcello to the majors last year. They had the same concerns the Padres currently do about overworking this prized prospect too early in his career, so they did two things. One, they limited his pitch count to less than 100 (which they stuck to until his 24th start on 28 August), and two, in an attempt to limit his innings they shut him down following his 5 July start for 15 days. Because this break coincided with the All-Star break, Porcello ended up only missing one start.
Porcello's numbers pre and post break are interesting:
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Back to back rallies fall just short
As was mentioned last night on the broadcast, the Padres have pretty much had their way with Washington since the team moved to DC. Going into this series, San Diego had won 12 of the 15 games in our Nation's capital. So some of what we're seeing this week is surprising, and some may be simply the Nationals were due to start winning at home against San Diego.
That said, it is frustrating to play the bottom team in the NL East and lose two in a row. What's more frustrating it the way they have been losing.
San Diego has leapt into first place by preventing runs through superior defense and a lock-down bullpen. The pitching model really works when the team turns over a lead to the Gregerson/Adams/Bell cohort. Since their 23 June game in Florida, however, they've shown a disturbing trend to get behind early. See for yourself:
I know this is small sample size, being only 13 games and all. I further realize the All-Star break starts after Sunday's games, which will give everyone a much-needed 3 days off. But this trend seems - SEEMS - to indicate the pitching is starting to wear down a little bit.
Losing an early 2-run lead isn't that unusual in baseball, especially when teams average scoring around 4 runs a game. I'd be much more worried if the Padres were blowing 4+ run leads (like the Cardinals have the last 2 nights in Colorado - thanks fellas). It's the early runs allowed that's bothering me. This team's offense simply isn't built to come from behind night after night. Much like the US Men's National Soccer team (Hey! World Cup Reference!) , they don't have the firepower.
I'm quite sure Bud Black and Darren Balsley are scratching their heads and actively working on a solution to the first inning run problems.
Finally congratulations to Heath Bell on being added to the All-Star team. He probably should have made the team out of the chute, but at least that wrong was addressed.
That said, it is frustrating to play the bottom team in the NL East and lose two in a row. What's more frustrating it the way they have been losing.
San Diego has leapt into first place by preventing runs through superior defense and a lock-down bullpen. The pitching model really works when the team turns over a lead to the Gregerson/Adams/Bell cohort. Since their 23 June game in Florida, however, they've shown a disturbing trend to get behind early. See for yourself:
- 24 June (@ Tampa Bay): Trailed 1-0 after one inning. They came back with 3 in the second, but lost 5-3.
- 25 June (@ Florida): Shutout (Win).
- 26 June (@ Florida): Trailed 1-0 after 2 (came back to win).
- 27 June (@ Florida): Scored first; game tied 2-2 after 7 (Win)
- 28 June (vs Colorado): Trailed 2-0 after 1 (Loss).
- 29 June (vs Colorado): Trailed 1-0 after 4 and 4-0 after 6 1/2 (Loss).
- 30 June (vs Colorado): Scored first, tied 2-2 after 2 (Win).
- 1 July (vs Houston): Trailed 3-0 after 1 (Loss).
- 2 July (vs Houston): Shutout (Win).
- 3 July (vs Houston): Shutout (Win).
- 4 July (vs Houston): Trailed 1-0 after 1 (Win).
- 6 July (@ Washington): Scored first, trailed 3-1 after 1 (Loss).
- 7 July (@ Washington): Scored first, trailed 4-1 after 1 (Loss).
I know this is small sample size, being only 13 games and all. I further realize the All-Star break starts after Sunday's games, which will give everyone a much-needed 3 days off. But this trend seems - SEEMS - to indicate the pitching is starting to wear down a little bit.
Losing an early 2-run lead isn't that unusual in baseball, especially when teams average scoring around 4 runs a game. I'd be much more worried if the Padres were blowing 4+ run leads (like the Cardinals have the last 2 nights in Colorado - thanks fellas). It's the early runs allowed that's bothering me. This team's offense simply isn't built to come from behind night after night. Much like the US Men's National Soccer team (Hey! World Cup Reference!) , they don't have the firepower.
I'm quite sure Bud Black and Darren Balsley are scratching their heads and actively working on a solution to the first inning run problems.
Finally congratulations to Heath Bell on being added to the All-Star team. He probably should have made the team out of the chute, but at least that wrong was addressed.
Monday, July 5, 2010
All Star Selections
First this was an amazing week. Scott Hairston drove in 12 runs during the homestand. Tony Gwynn Jr drove in a winning run, scored a winning run, and saved a run with a great catch, all in the Astro series. Kevin Correia found his form, at least for one game.
And Mat Latos pitched, again, like an All-Star.
I try not to get too worked-up about the All Star roster. Every team must be represented, so there are some artificial-ities inherent in the process. Evan Meek is the only Pirate, and he's pitched well, so that's that. I'm sure an argument could be made for either Luke Gregerson, Matt Adams, or Heath Bell over Arthur Rhodes, but I'm not going to make it today.
Even in my laid-back approach to the rosters, I cannot help but raise an eyebrow on 5 Cardinals making the roster but only 1 Padre. Pujols and Molina got voted in, Holliday leads all NL outfielders in WAR according to this site, Adam Wainwright is one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Chris Carpenter? That's an interesting pick.
The Padres have the best pitching staff, statistically, in the league but do not have a pitcher on the roster. Something seems amiss. I submit Mat Latos deserved Chris Carpenter's spot.
To wit:
- Latos ERA: 2.62. Carpenter: 3.16 (yes I know it was inflated by that gagger Saturday vs Milwaukee).
- Latos HR allowed: 9. Carpenter: 14.
- Latos WHIP: 0.963 (lowest SP WHIP in NL). Carpenter: 1.212
- Latos K/9: 8.2. Carpenter: 7.9
- Latos K/BB ratio: 3.5. Carpenter: 2.92
- Latos xFIP: 3.59. Carpenter: 3.77
- Latos WAR: 1.8. Carpenter: 1.4
I submit Mat Latos is better in every statistical category than Chris Carpenter. Bud Black is an assistant coach for the NL - how is it Latos didn't get selected?
*Yes I'm aware of the irony that I suggested sending Latos down in April, only to argue he's an All-Star now. Life is funny, isn't it?
And Mat Latos pitched, again, like an All-Star.
I try not to get too worked-up about the All Star roster. Every team must be represented, so there are some artificial-ities inherent in the process. Evan Meek is the only Pirate, and he's pitched well, so that's that. I'm sure an argument could be made for either Luke Gregerson, Matt Adams, or Heath Bell over Arthur Rhodes, but I'm not going to make it today.
Even in my laid-back approach to the rosters, I cannot help but raise an eyebrow on 5 Cardinals making the roster but only 1 Padre. Pujols and Molina got voted in, Holliday leads all NL outfielders in WAR according to this site, Adam Wainwright is one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Chris Carpenter? That's an interesting pick.
The Padres have the best pitching staff, statistically, in the league but do not have a pitcher on the roster. Something seems amiss. I submit Mat Latos deserved Chris Carpenter's spot.
To wit:
- Latos ERA: 2.62. Carpenter: 3.16 (yes I know it was inflated by that gagger Saturday vs Milwaukee).
- Latos HR allowed: 9. Carpenter: 14.
- Latos WHIP: 0.963 (lowest SP WHIP in NL). Carpenter: 1.212
- Latos K/9: 8.2. Carpenter: 7.9
- Latos K/BB ratio: 3.5. Carpenter: 2.92
- Latos xFIP: 3.59. Carpenter: 3.77
- Latos WAR: 1.8. Carpenter: 1.4
I submit Mat Latos is better in every statistical category than Chris Carpenter. Bud Black is an assistant coach for the NL - how is it Latos didn't get selected?
*Yes I'm aware of the irony that I suggested sending Latos down in April, only to argue he's an All-Star now. Life is funny, isn't it?
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Luis Suarez
I cannot imagine what it is like to stare down the end of your dream. The end of something you have worked your whole life to try and achieve, and now you watch it unfold in front of you without a means to stop it. What would you do?
ESPN shows replays of key moments in World Cup games from almost every possible angle. Sometimes I half expect them to cut to the 'under the turf cam' to show us the pitch's perspective on a ball when struck. Yet with all those camera angles, they have not yet put up a replay showing the foul which won Ghana the free kick in the 119th minute. From my excellent perspective over half the world away it appeared the Ghanian player simply fell down. Portuguese referee Olegario Benquerenca didn't see it that way, giving the Black Stars a chance to swing the ball in for a final shot on goal.
And swing it in they did. Uruguayan goal Fernando Muslera went for the ball and missed. A point blank shot found the legs of Suarez and bounced back into play. Before one of five Uruguayan defenders could get to it, Dominic Adiyiah put a head on the ball and sent it towards the back of the net.
Urguay had fought for 120 minutes. For large stretches of this game they were the better side, but in the last 10 minutes of extra time Ghana made a furious push to win. Uruguay could have won the game in regulation if Muslera had not been badly fooled on a shot from Sulley Muntari on the final play of the FIRST half. In fairness, Ghanian keeper Kingson should have stopped Diego Forlan's free kick that equalized. Now they were watching their dream slip away.
On the goal line, two Uruguayan players had set up shop: Jorge Fucile, and Luis Suarez. Their job is to stop the ball. As the header barreled towards them, it was headed between them. It was too high to get a foot on and too far to get a head on. In a final act of desperation, Suarez blocked the ball with his hands and Uruguay cleared it. Touching the ball with a hand by anyone but the goalie is a major no-no. Referee Benquerenca ejected Suarez from the game.
Why would Suarez commit a foul sure to send him off the field? Because he didn't have any other option. If the ball goes in, the game is lost. If he blocks it with his hands, at least Ghana has to make a penalty shot to win. He gives his keeper a chance to stop the shot. It should be said that only about 22% of all penalty kicks are stopped by the goalkeeper. So it comes down to a simple choice: If I don't use my hands, we lose. If I do use my hands, they get a penalty kick and we most likely lose.
I doubt very much Suarez processed that logical an argument in the split second he had to make a decision. He wanted badly, desperately, hopelessly to keep that ball out of the net. So he blocked the ball with the only weapon he had - an illegal one.
A lot will be written saying Suarez cheated. If Asamoah Gyan had put his penalty shot in the back of the net instead of off the crossbar, none of those words are written. But because Gyan missed the PK, everyone thinks Suarez stole this game from Ghana. I don't think he did. I think he just reacted to what he saw in front of him, driven by his fear of losing and his desire to win the game for his team and his country.
Only Suarez knows why he did what he did. Before we vilify him, ask this question - if you were watching your dream die, what would you do?
As an aside, my wife played soccer through college. She says she was always trained, in that situation, if using your hands was the only way to keep the ball out, do it; even though it also meant you would be sent off.
ESPN shows replays of key moments in World Cup games from almost every possible angle. Sometimes I half expect them to cut to the 'under the turf cam' to show us the pitch's perspective on a ball when struck. Yet with all those camera angles, they have not yet put up a replay showing the foul which won Ghana the free kick in the 119th minute. From my excellent perspective over half the world away it appeared the Ghanian player simply fell down. Portuguese referee Olegario Benquerenca didn't see it that way, giving the Black Stars a chance to swing the ball in for a final shot on goal.
And swing it in they did. Uruguayan goal Fernando Muslera went for the ball and missed. A point blank shot found the legs of Suarez and bounced back into play. Before one of five Uruguayan defenders could get to it, Dominic Adiyiah put a head on the ball and sent it towards the back of the net.
Urguay had fought for 120 minutes. For large stretches of this game they were the better side, but in the last 10 minutes of extra time Ghana made a furious push to win. Uruguay could have won the game in regulation if Muslera had not been badly fooled on a shot from Sulley Muntari on the final play of the FIRST half. In fairness, Ghanian keeper Kingson should have stopped Diego Forlan's free kick that equalized. Now they were watching their dream slip away.
On the goal line, two Uruguayan players had set up shop: Jorge Fucile, and Luis Suarez. Their job is to stop the ball. As the header barreled towards them, it was headed between them. It was too high to get a foot on and too far to get a head on. In a final act of desperation, Suarez blocked the ball with his hands and Uruguay cleared it. Touching the ball with a hand by anyone but the goalie is a major no-no. Referee Benquerenca ejected Suarez from the game.
Why would Suarez commit a foul sure to send him off the field? Because he didn't have any other option. If the ball goes in, the game is lost. If he blocks it with his hands, at least Ghana has to make a penalty shot to win. He gives his keeper a chance to stop the shot. It should be said that only about 22% of all penalty kicks are stopped by the goalkeeper. So it comes down to a simple choice: If I don't use my hands, we lose. If I do use my hands, they get a penalty kick and we most likely lose.
I doubt very much Suarez processed that logical an argument in the split second he had to make a decision. He wanted badly, desperately, hopelessly to keep that ball out of the net. So he blocked the ball with the only weapon he had - an illegal one.
A lot will be written saying Suarez cheated. If Asamoah Gyan had put his penalty shot in the back of the net instead of off the crossbar, none of those words are written. But because Gyan missed the PK, everyone thinks Suarez stole this game from Ghana. I don't think he did. I think he just reacted to what he saw in front of him, driven by his fear of losing and his desire to win the game for his team and his country.
Only Suarez knows why he did what he did. Before we vilify him, ask this question - if you were watching your dream die, what would you do?
As an aside, my wife played soccer through college. She says she was always trained, in that situation, if using your hands was the only way to keep the ball out, do it; even though it also meant you would be sent off.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Padres/Rockies, 29 June - Notes
Last night was unused season ticket night at the old ballpark, so we had an excuse to go. Not that we really need an excuse, we have season tickets. Some thoughts on Tuesday's game:
- A quiet groan could be heard when Tony Gwynn Jr was announced as the leadoff hitter. Gwynn's OBP (.324) doesn't lend itself to this slot. Here's an interesting tidbit: It's actually third highest on the club, behind Adrian Gonzalez (.399), David Eckstein (.326), and Yorvit Torrealba (.338). It would be awesome to hit the catcher leadoff, but I don't think Bud black is that progressive.
- Chase Headley had a rough night at the plate. He left 2 runners on in each of his first two at bats. He would have hit into a double play in the sixth, but Scott Hairston's great take out slide broke it up. Finally he was caught stealing in the eighth, although to be fair that looked like a blown hit and run.
- I hate the contact play. San Diego ran themselves out of a run in the third. Clearly Scott Hairston gets pitched differently with a runner on third and two out instead of a runner on first and two out, so we cannot say he would have gotten the single anyway. Why send the runner with the infield halfway in the third inning? Gwynn Jr made a great slide, but he was out. A little over-aggressive there, I think.
- Gwynn Jr's RBI single in the seventh was foul. We were sitting in Section 220 and had a great look at it. The umpire hesitated on the call because Rockie LF Ryan Spilborghs blocked the ball with his body after he landed. I think the ump decided the ball hit Spilborghs while Ryan was still in fair ground. It didn't look that way to me.
- Jerry Hairston Jr's HR would have been out even if the fan hadn't caught it; it bounces off the scoreboard and into the crowd. That was one of two fine plays in the stands tonight (the other being the barehanded catch of a soft line drive just behind first base).
- Yorvit struck out in the eighth and the catcher didn't hold the strike. Why didn't Torrealba run to first?
- The ball Carlos Gonzalez hit out was crushed. Actually I'm glad the Rockies scored a few more runs, it would have been unjust for LeBlanc to lose 1-0 on that lone mistake.
- Edward Mujica will hereafter be known as "Home Run Ed". When he was announced, I unloaded a loud "NO!" into the air. Someone behind me asked who I'd wanted to come in, Mike Adams? I replied, "Anyone but Mujica. Here comes a HR." Of course the same guy told me I was to blame for the home run. He was kidding, I think, but good God: 10 HR in 40 IP? Perhaps Black needs to re-think his situational pitching.
- The Padres blew a hit and run in the eighth that got Headley thrown out stealing. The Rockies perfectly executed a hit and run in the ninth, which jump-started the inning and eventually led to 2 insurance runs.
- Why did Beimel pitch to Gonzalez? Because Gonzalez was 4 for 24 going into that at-bat. 4 for 25 afterwards. Yes his groundout knocked in a run, but the Rockies were still ahead, and Belisle struck out Scott Hairston to end the threat.
- The first six innings were played in 90 minutes. The last 3? Ninety minutes. Eight pitching changes help make the game go a lot longer.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Tony Gwynn Jr's Glove
The conventional wisdom is, Gwynn Jr's glove has become the best OF glove the Padres have. I was curious, so let's look at Dewan plus/minus on each of the Padre outfielders. I grabbed the plus/minus number for the position each player has played the most in 2010. All statistics do not include last night's 10-6 loss to Colorado.
- Gwynn Jr: +8 (CF, 451.1 innings)
- Blanks: +1 (LF, 253)
- Cunningham: 0 (RF, 26)
- Denorfia: +1 (LF, 82.2)
- S. Hairston: -1 (LF, 204.1)
- J. Hairston Jr: +1 (RF, 42)
- Salazar: 0 (LF, 82)
- Stairs: -2 (RF, 51)
- Venable: +1 (RF, 480.1)
For a team built on run prevention, it makes a whole lot of sense why they play Gwynn Jr in center field every day. So long as he continues to go get it, and hit no higher than eighth in the order, he's helping the Padres more with his glove than he's hurting them with the bat (as an aside, he's worth 1.6 WAR according to Fangraphs - negative 2.1 batting and 9.9 fielding)
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The Juggernaut
Fear the Padres - especially on the road. For all the talk about building this team to play in Petco, they've been very tough on the road. I was surprised to discover tonight the Padres have the best road record in the National League (18-13). The Philadelphia Phillies are the only other NL team with even a winning record on the road (Cincinnati is .500 away from Great American Ballpark).
It gets better. San Diego also has the second best road record in the Majors, behind only Tampa Bay (24-12). You want the mark of a good team? They win on the road. As if you needed any more proof the Padres are good in 2010.
I'm not sure how else to describe Mat Latos at this point. Since being shellacked by Florida on 26 April, Latos has torn it up. Ten starts, 9 quality starts, 66 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings, 15 walks, opposing hitters are slashing .159/.223/.237 against him (slash starts don't include last night's game).
The Padres have won seven of his last 10 starts.
Mat Latos had the eighth best xFIP in the NL among starters for May according to Fangraphs (3.41). For June, his xFIP has slipped a little bit to a bloated 3.73. For the season, under the qualified rule set Fangraphs uses, he's tied for the 12th lowest xFIP in the league (3.71). By xFIP he's the best starter on the Padres.
Jed Hoyer faces a difficult choice. Latos has thrown 86 innings this season, and the Padres set a 150 inning limit on his arm. What will the club do if it remains in the pennant race, Latos remains their most consistent pitcher, and he reaches the 150 inning limit in early September? Will they allow him to push beyond it, or shut him down for the year?
Actually I hope the club is faced with that decision, because we'll be watching meaningful games in September for the first time since 2007.
It gets better. San Diego also has the second best road record in the Majors, behind only Tampa Bay (24-12). You want the mark of a good team? They win on the road. As if you needed any more proof the Padres are good in 2010.
I'm not sure how else to describe Mat Latos at this point. Since being shellacked by Florida on 26 April, Latos has torn it up. Ten starts, 9 quality starts, 66 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings, 15 walks, opposing hitters are slashing .159/.223/.237 against him (slash starts don't include last night's game).
The Padres have won seven of his last 10 starts.
Mat Latos had the eighth best xFIP in the NL among starters for May according to Fangraphs (3.41). For June, his xFIP has slipped a little bit to a bloated 3.73. For the season, under the qualified rule set Fangraphs uses, he's tied for the 12th lowest xFIP in the league (3.71). By xFIP he's the best starter on the Padres.
Jed Hoyer faces a difficult choice. Latos has thrown 86 innings this season, and the Padres set a 150 inning limit on his arm. What will the club do if it remains in the pennant race, Latos remains their most consistent pitcher, and he reaches the 150 inning limit in early September? Will they allow him to push beyond it, or shut him down for the year?
Actually I hope the club is faced with that decision, because we'll be watching meaningful games in September for the first time since 2007.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Zawadzki down, Ryan up
First, some self-promotion: my weekly Padres recap at Baseball Digest is up for your enjoyment.
A rather quiet off day. Among several moves the Padres made on Monday, two stood out: Lance Zawadzki was optioned back to Portland, and catcher Dusty Ryan was called up. It's interesting Zawadzki was sent down given Jed Hoyer's recent comments about not having someone on the roster able to spell Chase Headley at third from time to time. That problem was probably exacerbated with Everth Cabrera's injury, which forced Jerry Hairston Jr to play every day at short. With this move, there's no one to back-up Headley at third.
Dusty Ryan's call-up may be a precursor to Yorvit Torrealba serving his suspension. I believe MLB rules prevent teams from replacing a suspended player on the roster; in other words, while Torrealba is serving his suspension they have to play with 24 men. Could someone confirm that in the comments if so inclined? I wonder if the team told Torrealba to just serve the suspension and get it over with. Note that's all speculation on my part.
Ryan has a total of 80 plate appearances over 2 years in the majors, all with Detroit. He didn't hit the ball well at all in 2009; hopefully he's put that behind him. Welcome to the National League, Dusty Ryan.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned Cabrera continues his rehab assignment and could be back with the Padres late this week. Also, Kyle Blanks has suffered a setback in his rehab, coming down with elbow stiffness. He was due to complete rehabbing on Sunday, when the Padres would either have to activate him or option him to AAA. Looks like that decision will wait for a later day.
Padres start a 3-game set with Tampa Bay, which will conclude the Interleague docket for 2010. San Diego is catching the Rays at a good time; Tampa has dropped 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 9 against the NL.
A rather quiet off day. Among several moves the Padres made on Monday, two stood out: Lance Zawadzki was optioned back to Portland, and catcher Dusty Ryan was called up. It's interesting Zawadzki was sent down given Jed Hoyer's recent comments about not having someone on the roster able to spell Chase Headley at third from time to time. That problem was probably exacerbated with Everth Cabrera's injury, which forced Jerry Hairston Jr to play every day at short. With this move, there's no one to back-up Headley at third.
Dusty Ryan's call-up may be a precursor to Yorvit Torrealba serving his suspension. I believe MLB rules prevent teams from replacing a suspended player on the roster; in other words, while Torrealba is serving his suspension they have to play with 24 men. Could someone confirm that in the comments if so inclined? I wonder if the team told Torrealba to just serve the suspension and get it over with. Note that's all speculation on my part.
Ryan has a total of 80 plate appearances over 2 years in the majors, all with Detroit. He didn't hit the ball well at all in 2009; hopefully he's put that behind him. Welcome to the National League, Dusty Ryan.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned Cabrera continues his rehab assignment and could be back with the Padres late this week. Also, Kyle Blanks has suffered a setback in his rehab, coming down with elbow stiffness. He was due to complete rehabbing on Sunday, when the Padres would either have to activate him or option him to AAA. Looks like that decision will wait for a later day.
Padres start a 3-game set with Tampa Bay, which will conclude the Interleague docket for 2010. San Diego is catching the Rays at a good time; Tampa has dropped 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 9 against the NL.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Odds and Ends on a Friday
A quick post for you:
1. Reminder the second June San Diego SABR mini-regional meeting is Saturday - which happens to be tomorrow. 9:30 AM, La Jolla/Riford Library, 7555 Draper Ave La Jolla 92037. 12-year and current MLB umpire Joe Cuzzi will be speaking to the group.
2. Good luck to the US Soccer team against Slovenia this morning.
3. The Padres are putting on a blood drive at the Hall of Champions today from 10-4. From 1-2, Clayton Richard and Luke Gregerson are scheduled to be at the drive and signing autographs.
Finally, Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. In many ways, fatherhood is the most thankless and yet rewarding job a man can have. Here's to you trying to raise your children right.
1. Reminder the second June San Diego SABR mini-regional meeting is Saturday - which happens to be tomorrow. 9:30 AM, La Jolla/Riford Library, 7555 Draper Ave La Jolla 92037. 12-year and current MLB umpire Joe Cuzzi will be speaking to the group.
2. Good luck to the US Soccer team against Slovenia this morning.
3. The Padres are putting on a blood drive at the Hall of Champions today from 10-4. From 1-2, Clayton Richard and Luke Gregerson are scheduled to be at the drive and signing autographs.
Finally, Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. In many ways, fatherhood is the most thankless and yet rewarding job a man can have. Here's to you trying to raise your children right.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Three and Five
MLB handed down their decision on Yorvit Torrealba's 'discussion' with home plate umpire Larry Vanover Monday night - 3 game suspension. Yorvit was not amused, as quoted by Chris Jenkins:
If it’s a fine, all right, whatever, but three games is a little bit too much. One game, two games, I’m gonna get my lesson no matter what. But I don’t see umpires getting fined and I don’t see umpires getting suspended. They make a lot of mistakes.Jon Garland had a choice comment too. I love this one:
Garland said Wednesday that he’d pay Torrealba’s fine in appreciation for the catcher backing [him] up.The Padres will appeal the suspension, but now that Torrealba has continued to rip the umpire in the press, I would not expect the length to get reduced. I wonder if an appeal has ever resulted in the suspension getting longer. For the record, good for Torrealba for expressing himself clearly, and when will MLB make the review of umpiring performance more transparent? I think some level of public accountability with umpires who make repeated bad calls, are confrontational, and/or are inconsistent pitch-to-pitch or inning-to-inning would go a long way to restoring their reputation as a whole with the players and fans.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Short Rest and Short Tempers
To start last night's series with the Toronto Blue Jays, the Padres decided to thrown Jon Garland on three days (or short) rest. Garland has not fared well in short rest situations; in fact, according to facts I heard after the game, he had only made 2 previous career starts on 3 days rest and was 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA. Even if you are one who does not put a lot of stock in the traditional statistics (and as a general rule, I do not), those numbers do not portend to a good result.
So watching Garland labor through 3 innings while throwing 84 pitches was no surprise. One would think throwing that many pitches meant he wasn't pitching well. In fact, he got 6 of those 9 outs via strikeout. The John Buck 2-run shot in the second hurt, but what really killed him was the walk to Toronto starter Shaun Marcum with two out in the same inning. In fact, it appeared Marcum got a borderline pitch called a ball on a 2-2 count, then proceeded to walk.
It also appeared that call got to Garland - as evidenced by the 2 doubles he then gave up, and the two looks he gave home plate umpire Larry Vanover as he left the field. Garland eventually made it through 5, and allowed only one hit the rest of the way (a two-out single to Lyle Overbay in the fifth).
In the meantime, the Padres were hitting home runs too - except theirs came with no one on. Jerry Hairston Jr homered to lead off the third, an inning after he was left in the batters box while Will Venable was caught stealing. Adrian Gonzalez homered leading off the fourth, cutting the deficit in half.
The Curious Case of Edward Mujica came on, and while he didn't give up a tater, he didn't disappoint by allowing another run to score. With the score 5-2 the Padres finally got a look at the game. Singles by Scott 'Big Country'* Hairston and Venable sandwiched Yorvit Torrealba reaching on an error by the Toronto shortstop Alex Gonzalez**.
*The stadium PA system played 'Big Country' by Big Country before Hairston's first at bat in the second inning. He will forever be known as Big Country on this blog.
** Yorvit wore out Gonzalez in this game - single to short, ground out to short, reach on an error by short. He didn't get a chance to go for the quad though...
Unfortunately, the Hairston Jr just missed a Marcum fastball and popped out to left. Not deep enough to score the run. The Gwynn Jr then hit a slow roller to third. A run scored, but there were two out. Oscar Salazer's soft line out to center ended the majority of the drama for this game.
That is, until the earthquake hit in the eighth. I truly was not worried until the tremor kept going and going. The PA announcement to 'REMAIN CALM' did more to excite the crowd than the earthquake did. Of course, I immediately said, to no one in particular, "They're not out of coffee are they? THEY BETTER NOT RUN OUT OF COFFEE!!!" fully realizing no one under 40 would get that joke. Judging from the high school kids looking at me quizzically, they didn't.
The final excitement was Torrealba's final at bat of the night, with Big Country on first and no one out. Based on Torrealba's reaction the pitch was inside; my seats did not support a good angle to see the pitch. Vanover called it strike three and Yorvit went ballistic. Vanover stuck his finger in Torrealba's face (here we go again), and Torrealba got right in his grill. Yorvit also bumped the umpire a couple of times.
Yorvit's going to get fined and probably suspended, and that's too bad. I'll save my umpire rant for the Podcast.*
*I'll also point out that on my last Podcast I stated the Blue Jays had never played San Diego. That's wrong, they faced off in San Diego back in 2004. The Padres have never played in Toronto.
So watching Garland labor through 3 innings while throwing 84 pitches was no surprise. One would think throwing that many pitches meant he wasn't pitching well. In fact, he got 6 of those 9 outs via strikeout. The John Buck 2-run shot in the second hurt, but what really killed him was the walk to Toronto starter Shaun Marcum with two out in the same inning. In fact, it appeared Marcum got a borderline pitch called a ball on a 2-2 count, then proceeded to walk.
It also appeared that call got to Garland - as evidenced by the 2 doubles he then gave up, and the two looks he gave home plate umpire Larry Vanover as he left the field. Garland eventually made it through 5, and allowed only one hit the rest of the way (a two-out single to Lyle Overbay in the fifth).
In the meantime, the Padres were hitting home runs too - except theirs came with no one on. Jerry Hairston Jr homered to lead off the third, an inning after he was left in the batters box while Will Venable was caught stealing. Adrian Gonzalez homered leading off the fourth, cutting the deficit in half.
The Curious Case of Edward Mujica came on, and while he didn't give up a tater, he didn't disappoint by allowing another run to score. With the score 5-2 the Padres finally got a look at the game. Singles by Scott 'Big Country'* Hairston and Venable sandwiched Yorvit Torrealba reaching on an error by the Toronto shortstop Alex Gonzalez**.
*The stadium PA system played 'Big Country' by Big Country before Hairston's first at bat in the second inning. He will forever be known as Big Country on this blog.
** Yorvit wore out Gonzalez in this game - single to short, ground out to short, reach on an error by short. He didn't get a chance to go for the quad though...
Unfortunately, the Hairston Jr just missed a Marcum fastball and popped out to left. Not deep enough to score the run. The Gwynn Jr then hit a slow roller to third. A run scored, but there were two out. Oscar Salazer's soft line out to center ended the majority of the drama for this game.
That is, until the earthquake hit in the eighth. I truly was not worried until the tremor kept going and going. The PA announcement to 'REMAIN CALM' did more to excite the crowd than the earthquake did. Of course, I immediately said, to no one in particular, "They're not out of coffee are they? THEY BETTER NOT RUN OUT OF COFFEE!!!" fully realizing no one under 40 would get that joke. Judging from the high school kids looking at me quizzically, they didn't.
The final excitement was Torrealba's final at bat of the night, with Big Country on first and no one out. Based on Torrealba's reaction the pitch was inside; my seats did not support a good angle to see the pitch. Vanover called it strike three and Yorvit went ballistic. Vanover stuck his finger in Torrealba's face (here we go again), and Torrealba got right in his grill. Yorvit also bumped the umpire a couple of times.
Yorvit's going to get fined and probably suspended, and that's too bad. I'll save my umpire rant for the Podcast.*
*I'll also point out that on my last Podcast I stated the Blue Jays had never played San Diego. That's wrong, they faced off in San Diego back in 2004. The Padres have never played in Toronto.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
The Curious Case of Edward Mujica
Edward Mujica has a bad case of Gopher-ball-itis in 2010, up to and including the decisive, mammoth shot he surrendered to Ike Davis on Tuesday in the eleventh. Last year he gave up a home run about every 7 innings (14 in 93 2/3 innings pitched). This year it's every four (8 in 29). Is the 2010 trend a sign of worry?
For analysis like this, I find Fangraphs the best site to look at. Comparing 2009 to 2010 we find:
All his metrics indicate he's pitching better, but he's getting hammered by the long ball. Odd.
For analysis like this, I find Fangraphs the best site to look at. Comparing 2009 to 2010 we find:
- Mujica's K/9, BB/9, WHIP, and BABIP are all better this year than they were in 2009. In some cases, significantly so (like BABIP is currently 100 points better, .213 from .316)
- He's throwing more ground balls (his GB/FB rate is up) and giving up fewer line drives (13.2% vice 17.2%0
- His velocities are about the same:
- Fastball averaging 92.4 (2010), 92.7 last year
- Slider averaging 82.1, 82.7 last year
- Split finger fastball averaging 87.5, 86.9 last year
- Hitters contact rates are virtually identical to what they were last year. Hitters are swinging at more pitches out of the zone, and Mujica is getting more swinging strikes.
All his metrics indicate he's pitching better, but he's getting hammered by the long ball. Odd.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
5 June San Diego SABR meeting Wrap-up
As I promoted last week, the San Diego SABR Chapter hosted the first of two mini-regionals on June 5. The focus of the meeting was Andy Strasburg's Fantography project, his effort to preserve for posterity those great baseball photos we all have that may never be seen outside our families or Vacation slide shows.
Yes I realize many of you have never sat through Vacation photos at someone else's house, and have never seen a slide projector. Ah for the days when all you needed was a light bulb and a blank wall to look at photos, instead of an HD TV or a $200 photo frame a memory stick plugged into. But I digress.
Thirty-two baseball enthusiasts made their way to La Jolla for the meeting. That's slightly above average for a San Diego SABR event, and many thanks to all who attended. Andy presented some of the photos he has collected during the project, and back story for many of them. After Andy's remarks, a couple of folks who had contributed their photos talked about the ones they had donated.
Yes I realize many of you have never sat through Vacation photos at someone else's house, and have never seen a slide projector. Ah for the days when all you needed was a light bulb and a blank wall to look at photos, instead of an HD TV or a $200 photo frame a memory stick plugged into. But I digress.
Thirty-two baseball enthusiasts made their way to La Jolla for the meeting. That's slightly above average for a San Diego SABR event, and many thanks to all who attended. Andy presented some of the photos he has collected during the project, and back story for many of them. After Andy's remarks, a couple of folks who had contributed their photos talked about the ones they had donated.
David Nuffer speaks to the group (Photo: Andy Strasburg)
Howard Frank tells his story (Photo: Andy Strasburg)
Bret Moutow. Yes even Cubs fans are welcome here (Photo: Andy Strasburg)
I make the Cub crack tongue-in-cheek. As you know from attending Cub games, they have a large and vocal following in these here parts. Some of them attend our SABR meetings regularly, and they contribute a lot to the chapter and the discussion.
At any rate, the meeting ran about 60 minutes, with a lot of discussion after it broke up among the attendees and Andy. Sounds like a great event, I'm sorry I missed it.
Our next mini-regional meeting will be 19 June with current MLB Umpire Joe Cuzzi. Grab you Dad and head to the La Jolla library.
(Thanks to Tom Larwin for providing the photos in this post.)
Padres drop a heartbreaker on Strasmus Day
In case you couldn't tear yourself away from the ancient and royal festivities surrounding Strasmus Day in our Nation's capital, the Padres played a tense game last night in New York.
(They say Stephen Strasburg walked on the Potomac as part of his game preparation.)
A Chase Headley single and Adrian Gonzalez double with one out in the first started the Padres off, and for a long while it looked like it would be enough. Clayton Richard threw very well and had a shutout with two out in the seventh, when Jose Reyes hit the tying HR to left (although that shot would have to be confirmed via replay).
(Strasburg free climbs the Washington Monument as part of his strength and conditioning program.)
San Diego had opportunities to forge ahead. Lance Zawadzki doubled with one out in the eighth and was left. Scott Hairston got to second thanks to a David Wright throwing error and was stranded. David Eckstein singled and was moved to second on a sacrifice bunt, but he stayed right there. One only gets so many opportunities to win a game.
(Strasburg puts his pants on both legs at the same time without jumping.)
Based on bullpen usage during the Philadelphia series, Edward Mujica was the most rested arm down there as this game headed into extras. Mujica has allowed the second most HR by a reliever in the NL behind only Juan Guitterez of Arizona, and he crept closer in that department as Ike Davis rounded the bases off him. 2-1 Mets in 11.
(Strasburg has sent his Mom flowers every day since he signed his ML contract.)
Coupled with another Dodger win, the Padres fell out of first place for the first time since April 19. It doesn't get any easier for San Diego, they get Johan Santana again today.
The SABR mini-regional Saturday was a success, and I will have a post on that up later Wednesday.
(They say Stephen Strasburg walked on the Potomac as part of his game preparation.)
A Chase Headley single and Adrian Gonzalez double with one out in the first started the Padres off, and for a long while it looked like it would be enough. Clayton Richard threw very well and had a shutout with two out in the seventh, when Jose Reyes hit the tying HR to left (although that shot would have to be confirmed via replay).
(Strasburg free climbs the Washington Monument as part of his strength and conditioning program.)
San Diego had opportunities to forge ahead. Lance Zawadzki doubled with one out in the eighth and was left. Scott Hairston got to second thanks to a David Wright throwing error and was stranded. David Eckstein singled and was moved to second on a sacrifice bunt, but he stayed right there. One only gets so many opportunities to win a game.
(Strasburg puts his pants on both legs at the same time without jumping.)
Based on bullpen usage during the Philadelphia series, Edward Mujica was the most rested arm down there as this game headed into extras. Mujica has allowed the second most HR by a reliever in the NL behind only Juan Guitterez of Arizona, and he crept closer in that department as Ike Davis rounded the bases off him. 2-1 Mets in 11.
(Strasburg has sent his Mom flowers every day since he signed his ML contract.)
Coupled with another Dodger win, the Padres fell out of first place for the first time since April 19. It doesn't get any easier for San Diego, they get Johan Santana again today.
The SABR mini-regional Saturday was a success, and I will have a post on that up later Wednesday.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Podcast time shift and San Diego SABR meetings
What a scintillating win for the Padres to close out a 9-game homestand - an Adrian Gonzalez walk-off Grand Slam. The Padres went 6-3 over those nine games. On May 24, these were the standings:
Two items for you today. First, the Padres Trail Podcast is moving to 9pm Pacific starting tonight (that's 2100 for those of you in the military). Although I'd like to say it's due to fan requests, it's actually because Burn Notice returns to USA tonight... at 10pm. Three guesses where I'll be at 10:00.
Second item: the San Diego SABR chapter has decided to start hosting 'mini-regional' meetings, in addition to our two semi-annual meetings. The first of these two mini-regionals will be this Saturday, 5 June, at 10am, and will feature Andy Strasburg. Andy is the Chapter Vice President, but he is two other things as well: the creator of Fantography, currently on display at the SD Public Library Main Branch, and Roger Maris' biggest fan.
The second mini-regional will be 19 June at 9:30 am, and will feature current umpire Joe Cuzzi, 12-year MLB veteran. Here's a unique opportunity to talk to one of the game's arbiters that may never pass your way again. You can ask him about Jim Joyce if you want.
Both events will be held at the La Jolla/Riford Library, 7555 Draper Avenue, La Jolla, CA, 92037. Admission and parking are free.
I most likely won't make the 5 June meeting due to a previous engagement, but I'm going to move heaven and earth to be at the 19 June one. If you go to either, PLEASE tell the man at the door you heard about it at Padres Trail!
- Padres
- Dodgers 1 game back
- Giants 3.5 games back
- Rockies 4 games back
- D'backs 6.5 games back.
- Padres
- Dodgers 1 game back
- Giants 3.5 games back
- Rockies 4 games back
- D'backs 12.5 games back.
Two items for you today. First, the Padres Trail Podcast is moving to 9pm Pacific starting tonight (that's 2100 for those of you in the military). Although I'd like to say it's due to fan requests, it's actually because Burn Notice returns to USA tonight... at 10pm. Three guesses where I'll be at 10:00.
Second item: the San Diego SABR chapter has decided to start hosting 'mini-regional' meetings, in addition to our two semi-annual meetings. The first of these two mini-regionals will be this Saturday, 5 June, at 10am, and will feature Andy Strasburg. Andy is the Chapter Vice President, but he is two other things as well: the creator of Fantography, currently on display at the SD Public Library Main Branch, and Roger Maris' biggest fan.
The second mini-regional will be 19 June at 9:30 am, and will feature current umpire Joe Cuzzi, 12-year MLB veteran. Here's a unique opportunity to talk to one of the game's arbiters that may never pass your way again. You can ask him about Jim Joyce if you want.
Both events will be held at the La Jolla/Riford Library, 7555 Draper Avenue, La Jolla, CA, 92037. Admission and parking are free.
I most likely won't make the 5 June meeting due to a previous engagement, but I'm going to move heaven and earth to be at the 19 June one. If you go to either, PLEASE tell the man at the door you heard about it at Padres Trail!
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Do The Padres Need A Hitter?
One of the impressive things about this Padre start is what they've been able to do without much offense. Coming into Tuesday's action, they had the third lowest wOBA in the National League, yet sported the league's best record. Naturally their somewhat (somewhat?) anemic offense has started calls for the team to pick up a bat.
Last January, the San Diego SABR chapter was pleased to have Merv Rettenmund speak at one of their semi-annual meetings. During that meeting, Rettenmund mentioned how Petco Park is very difficult to hit in during April/May, but that the ball "jumps" better once the summer starts. Since 81 games a year are played at Petco, the park should play a big role in the team's month-to-month wOBA numbers*. That, coupled with this year's team, got me thinking. Has the Padre offense improved when the weather warms up, and can the Padres rely on this improvement to give them the 'jump' of offense they need to contend this summer without acquiring another bat?
*Granted, the monthly numbers will be affected by the number of home/road games played in that particular month. I did not look at the schedules for each month when conducting this analysis.
Thanks to Fangraphs, I took a look at the Padre team wOBA, month by month, since Petco Park opened. I included Mar-May 2010 in the data set, and threw out the high and low value for each month. Here's a graph of the averages.
What I find interesting about this graph is, on average, the Padres struggle MORE to get on base once the summer starts (here summer is defined to start on Memorial Day. Nothing if not a traditional outlook at Padres Trail). The team wOBA is worse in June and July than it was in March/April, and May. Note the big jump in August, and that jump is consistent across seasons (and talent levels of teams).
This tells me, although the ball may travel better once June 1 rolls around, it doesn't start jumping until August 1, and the Padres will continue to struggle offensively through 2/3 of the summer. The team can't wait until August for an offensive boost. A lot can happen in 60 days, including the Padres sinking completely out of contention.
There are a couple of positions on the diamond (most glaringly, shortstop, Jerry Hairston Jr's 3 HRs in the last 8 games not withstanding) where the Padres would be better off with a better bat. I'm sure that Jed Hoyer's team, with their renewed emphasis on building a team that fits in Petco, has a list of candidates that could improve the team if on this roster. It's probably time to start seriously looking at those options.
This team will contend all season given their pitching and defense. It would be fantastic for their offense to get some help, and get them into the post-season.
(Here's the complete data set)
Last January, the San Diego SABR chapter was pleased to have Merv Rettenmund speak at one of their semi-annual meetings. During that meeting, Rettenmund mentioned how Petco Park is very difficult to hit in during April/May, but that the ball "jumps" better once the summer starts. Since 81 games a year are played at Petco, the park should play a big role in the team's month-to-month wOBA numbers*. That, coupled with this year's team, got me thinking. Has the Padre offense improved when the weather warms up, and can the Padres rely on this improvement to give them the 'jump' of offense they need to contend this summer without acquiring another bat?
*Granted, the monthly numbers will be affected by the number of home/road games played in that particular month. I did not look at the schedules for each month when conducting this analysis.
Thanks to Fangraphs, I took a look at the Padre team wOBA, month by month, since Petco Park opened. I included Mar-May 2010 in the data set, and threw out the high and low value for each month. Here's a graph of the averages.
What I find interesting about this graph is, on average, the Padres struggle MORE to get on base once the summer starts (here summer is defined to start on Memorial Day. Nothing if not a traditional outlook at Padres Trail). The team wOBA is worse in June and July than it was in March/April, and May. Note the big jump in August, and that jump is consistent across seasons (and talent levels of teams).
This tells me, although the ball may travel better once June 1 rolls around, it doesn't start jumping until August 1, and the Padres will continue to struggle offensively through 2/3 of the summer. The team can't wait until August for an offensive boost. A lot can happen in 60 days, including the Padres sinking completely out of contention.
There are a couple of positions on the diamond (most glaringly, shortstop, Jerry Hairston Jr's 3 HRs in the last 8 games not withstanding) where the Padres would be better off with a better bat. I'm sure that Jed Hoyer's team, with their renewed emphasis on building a team that fits in Petco, has a list of candidates that could improve the team if on this roster. It's probably time to start seriously looking at those options.
This team will contend all season given their pitching and defense. It would be fantastic for their offense to get some help, and get them into the post-season.
(Here's the complete data set)
Monday, May 31, 2010
Yet Another Series Win
This homestand has become exactly what the Padres needed. Few predicted the team would win 2 of 3 from the powerful St Louis Cardinals, but they did. Some hoped they'd win 2 of 3 from the resurgent Washington Nationals, but they have. A quick series recap, in case you've been buried in barbeque this weekend:
- Friday, Clayton Richard gives up a 3-run HR to Josh Willingham which the Padres can't quite overcome. In the ninth, San Diego scores a run and loads the bases with no one out (down by two), but the rally fizzles.
- Saturday, Nationals second baseman Adam Kennedy can't quite pick up a ground ball in the hole off Adrian Gonzalez's bat. Chase Headley singles, and Nick Hundley homers to give the Padres an early 3-0 lead. They win 4-2.
- Sunday, the Padres survived two solo homers by budding Nationals star Ryan Zimmerman to take the game in extra innings. There another Kennedy error (again with two out, no less) let the Padres get the winning run to second, where rookie Lance Zawadzki singled him home.
Two other items for your perusal after the jump.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Can't Win Them All
Although it would be nice, you can't win them all. When Bud Black stated he didn't think the bullpen would need reinforcements following last night's 13-inning game, it meant Wade LeBlanc would be out there for a while regardless of how poorly he pitched.
And he didn't pitch that poorly, all things considered. Brendan Ryan had a big day off him (3 hits, including a HR in the fourth). Albert Pujols homered. The Padres, on the other hand, couldn't muster anything off Cardinal spot starter PJ Walters, and with no run support LeBlanc was doomed. Adam Russell pitched two innings for the depleted bullpen and gave up 4 runs, taking the doubt out of the issue. 8-3 Cardinals in the finale.
Padres finished the series 2 for 25 with runners in scoring position, and still managed to win 2 of the 3 games. That's one of the more ridiculous stats you'll see. No Sacrifice Flies were hit with a runner on third throughout the 3-game series.
I was at this afternoon's game, but it was a seminal moment - I took my oldest to his first baseball game. Needless to say we didn't watch the whole game, nor did we stay until the end. But the boy did get a hit at the Park at the Park field, and we did walk around a lot, and he did eat a lot of Skittles. A good day. So, the rest of this post will be photos.
And he didn't pitch that poorly, all things considered. Brendan Ryan had a big day off him (3 hits, including a HR in the fourth). Albert Pujols homered. The Padres, on the other hand, couldn't muster anything off Cardinal spot starter PJ Walters, and with no run support LeBlanc was doomed. Adam Russell pitched two innings for the depleted bullpen and gave up 4 runs, taking the doubt out of the issue. 8-3 Cardinals in the finale.
Padres finished the series 2 for 25 with runners in scoring position, and still managed to win 2 of the 3 games. That's one of the more ridiculous stats you'll see. No Sacrifice Flies were hit with a runner on third throughout the 3-game series.
I was at this afternoon's game, but it was a seminal moment - I took my oldest to his first baseball game. Needless to say we didn't watch the whole game, nor did we stay until the end. But the boy did get a hit at the Park at the Park field, and we did walk around a lot, and he did eat a lot of Skittles. A good day. So, the rest of this post will be photos.
View from our seats. I like the 1978 jerseys.
Jerry Hairston Jr and David Eckstein
Matt Holliday singled, then got thrown out trying to stretch it to a double, to end the fourth. Here's LaRussa asking second base umpire Mark Wegner if he has pigeon shit in his eye.
Wade LeBlanc pitched as hard as he could, but it wasn't enough. Here he is exiting the game in the sixth.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Pitching, Good Fortune, and a Hairston
Went to last night's game. The Cardinal side of the story is posted here if you care to read it.
First, people driving downtown last night were a****les. Unbelieveable. I'm headed down 10th street to the Padres parking structure we usually use, and let a couple of folks in, you know, to be courteous. Well apparently everyone else in the middle lane then thought I'd just let them in too. One Padre fan was willing to risk damage to his Lexus SUV in order to cut me off (yes he did emerge unscathed). Lesson learned: drive like a jerk too. It's sad society has come to this. LA fans driving around were much better.
Okay, cleansing complete. On to the game.
Quote of the night #2: Mark Grant "Hey Dick, what's your scorecard look like?" Enberg: "It looks like I left it in the rain."
PJ Walters vs Wade LeBlanc today at 3:35. Walters is making his first start of the season, and the second start of his major league career (the last was 17 April 09 at Wrigley). LeBlanc looks to bounce back from a horrible outing in Seattle. Padres go for the sweep.
First, people driving downtown last night were a****les. Unbelieveable. I'm headed down 10th street to the Padres parking structure we usually use, and let a couple of folks in, you know, to be courteous. Well apparently everyone else in the middle lane then thought I'd just let them in too. One Padre fan was willing to risk damage to his Lexus SUV in order to cut me off (yes he did emerge unscathed). Lesson learned: drive like a jerk too. It's sad society has come to this. LA fans driving around were much better.
Okay, cleansing complete. On to the game.
- Thank GOD Tony LaRussa likes to overmanage. As Joe Posnanski said recently, he can't help himself. Granted, hindsight is 20/20, but how much different would last night's game be if:
- Felipe Lopez isn't thrown out stealing in the first, or
- John Jay isn't thrown out at the plate to end the inning, or
- Kyle McClellan comes out instead of pitching to Matt Stairs (Stairs is 0-3, 3K lifetime against Trever Miller), or
- The contact play isn't on with first/third, 0 outs in the 11th.
- Matt Holliday was booed before his first at bat. Way to go, Padre fans - never forget. He STILL hasn't touched home plate.
- The Cardinals ended two innings (first and fourth) with a hit and a runner thrown out on the bases. I don't think I've ever seen that happen twice in a game I attended.
- Dick Enberg pointed this out in the twelfth, and it's amazing: The Padres are 0-15 this series with runners in scoring position. They've won both games. Wow.
- Kevin Correia was more like his old self (before running into Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw twice, sandwiched around the untimely death of his brother) in this game - 6 innings, 5K's. He danced in and out of trouble for most of the night though.
- It was nice to see Bud Black's learned from recent history, and had Ryan Webb/Luke Gregerson up in the pen as the sixth inning started. The sixth has by far been the worst inning for Correia - he's surrendered 10 runs in that frame alone. When Correia loses it, it's not a gentle degrade - he goes bad in a hurry. You gotta be ready with a quick hook once he gets that deep into the game.
- I've never sat through a more painful inning (for both teams) than the fifth. Both teams brought their clean up hitter to the plate with the bases loaded. Both struck out. Both had a borderline pitch called a strike during the at-bat. Both wear #7. Odd.
- You want to make fun of the Padre bullpen? Don't. Gregerson/Mike Adams/Heath Bell struck out 7 hitters between them. Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica bent but didn't break in extras, although Webb was helped by more bonehead Cardinal baserunning.
- I didn't know Adrian Gonzalez had that kind of speed.
- I looked down to update my scorecard, and the next thing I know Stairs has hit the ball in the gap. He couldn't have thrown it out there in a better spot than rolling the ball under the 401 sign in left-center. Tremendous theater.
- Tip your cap to Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick. Those were great at-bats against Bell, who was throwing gas (96 repeatedly on the fastball).
- Luis Durango ALMOST got to the ball Schumaker hit. In one of a 1000 'what-if's' from this game, what if Durango had given ground and held Schumaker to a single? Don't know. Perhaps the inning is different, perhaps not.
Quote of the night #2: Mark Grant "Hey Dick, what's your scorecard look like?" Enberg: "It looks like I left it in the rain."
PJ Walters vs Wade LeBlanc today at 3:35. Walters is making his first start of the season, and the second start of his major league career (the last was 17 April 09 at Wrigley). LeBlanc looks to bounce back from a horrible outing in Seattle. Padres go for the sweep.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Garland, Defense Shut Down Cardinals
Jon Garland walked the high wire, and came away unscathed. Especially in the first inning.
Before we get to that, a quick comment. Darren Smith, on the Padre BP show, talked about last year's Cardinal/Padre finale and the Will Venable/Albert Pujols dust-up at first base. He shed some additional light on that event; apparently AP tends to straddle the first base line when recording outs at first, so the Padres were told to go through him.
Smith, in attempting to recall the specifics of the event, said it occured in September, on Sunday, and the Padres won. Not quite. Happened on a Sunday? Yes. But, it was 23 Aug 09, and the Padres lost 5-2. It helps my memory that Smoltz struck out a career best 7 consecutive hitters, and that it was Ryan Franklin's last save in 2009, AND that I wrote about it over here. Come on Darren. I know you're a St John's* alum, but you're better than that.
* A little Big East dig, since I went to Villanova.
Garland labored through the first, but got the big strikeouts when he needed them. His defense backed him up by turning 3 double plays during his seven innings. Jerry Hairston, Jr, pulled a rabbit out of his hat and hit his first 2010 HR - off Cardinal ace Adam Wainwright, no less. Another example of the Padres doing just enough to win.
Mike Adams threw an uneventful eighth, and Heath Bell negotiated an interesting ninth (exacerbated by the strike zone, if Ted Leitner/Andy Mazur are to believed) to get the save.
Last night was the third 1-0 win this season by San Diego. That's the most since 2007, when they won 5 such games. The franchise record for 1-0 wins is 6, set in 1985.
If I had anything to nit-pick, it would be Adrian Gonzalez striking out 4 times. However, considering the first three came against the 2009 Cy Young runner-up, that's not much of a nit.
Kevin Correia looks to snap his personal 3-game losing streak tonight against Jamie Garcia. This will be Kevin's second start at Petco against the Cardinals; he lost the first one 7-0 to Chris Carpenter. He is 1-2 in 3 career starts facing St Louis. Five current Redbirds have at least 8 Plate Appearances against him:
My coverage of the game from the Cardinal perspective can be found here. Yes the content is different.
Before we get to that, a quick comment. Darren Smith, on the Padre BP show, talked about last year's Cardinal/Padre finale and the Will Venable/Albert Pujols dust-up at first base. He shed some additional light on that event; apparently AP tends to straddle the first base line when recording outs at first, so the Padres were told to go through him.
Smith, in attempting to recall the specifics of the event, said it occured in September, on Sunday, and the Padres won. Not quite. Happened on a Sunday? Yes. But, it was 23 Aug 09, and the Padres lost 5-2. It helps my memory that Smoltz struck out a career best 7 consecutive hitters, and that it was Ryan Franklin's last save in 2009, AND that I wrote about it over here. Come on Darren. I know you're a St John's* alum, but you're better than that.
* A little Big East dig, since I went to Villanova.
Garland labored through the first, but got the big strikeouts when he needed them. His defense backed him up by turning 3 double plays during his seven innings. Jerry Hairston, Jr, pulled a rabbit out of his hat and hit his first 2010 HR - off Cardinal ace Adam Wainwright, no less. Another example of the Padres doing just enough to win.
Mike Adams threw an uneventful eighth, and Heath Bell negotiated an interesting ninth (exacerbated by the strike zone, if Ted Leitner/Andy Mazur are to believed) to get the save.
Last night was the third 1-0 win this season by San Diego. That's the most since 2007, when they won 5 such games. The franchise record for 1-0 wins is 6, set in 1985.
If I had anything to nit-pick, it would be Adrian Gonzalez striking out 4 times. However, considering the first three came against the 2009 Cy Young runner-up, that's not much of a nit.
Kevin Correia looks to snap his personal 3-game losing streak tonight against Jamie Garcia. This will be Kevin's second start at Petco against the Cardinals; he lost the first one 7-0 to Chris Carpenter. He is 1-2 in 3 career starts facing St Louis. Five current Redbirds have at least 8 Plate Appearances against him:
- Felipe Lopez (29 PA): .200/.286/.280
- Matt Holliday (25 PA): .304/.360/.609
- Albert Pujols (13 PA): .400/.538/.500
- Yadier Molina (9 PA): .143/.250/.143
- Skip Schumaker (8 PA): .429/.500/.571
My coverage of the game from the Cardinal perspective can be found here. Yes the content is different.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Odds and ends and the Cardinals
Well the Latos/Hernandez duel was pretty good, with Latos getting the better of it. Of course, it didn't hurt the Mariners put a woefully weak lineup on the field for that game (and if you don't read USS Mariner, you should), and their bullpen combusted in the eighth. Considering the Padres got ambushed on Friday night, taking 2 of 3 over the weekend was a nice turnout.
Coupled with a Dodger loss, and our Friars find themselves still in first as we start play this week. This is becoming a trend.
This will be a short 'catch up' post, where I make a couple of announcements. First, we've added two new players to the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars: Milton Bradley and Chase Utley. Anytime a player exists with the name of a major board gaming company of my youth they are automatically inducted on this roster. If there was a McGraw Hill or a Parker Brothers playing at the major league level, they'd be on the team too. Chase Utley sounds like a guy with 'a tea cup on [his] lap and ticker-tape coming out of [his] ears'* as opposed to the best power-hitting second baseman in the game. That's enough. Also, with Yuri playing short, we need some help up the middle.
*Can anyone name the movie that line appears in? I'll give something to the winner. Not sure what, but it'll be nice.
Second, I've been asked to write about the Padres over at Baseball Digest.com, and have accepted. My first story went up today. I hope to make it a regular weekly feature over there.
Finally, since the next Padre opponent is the other MLB team I blog about, I am going to try something daring: do a game recap for each of the 3 Cardinal/Padre games from the perspective of each team's fanbase. I don't think this has been attempted anywhere ever by the same writer. It might suck, it might be great, it might cause the Mayan Doomsday Prophecy to happen 2 years early - I don't know. But it'll be fun nonetheless.
The Cardinals are scuffling right now but are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league. St Louis has had some success at Petco (10-9 against the Padres since the park opened). Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the NL, and the ace of the Cardinal staff. Jon Garland has his work cut out for him, because the Padre offense won't get much from Adam. Jamie Garcia is an early favorite for Rookie of the Year. The other Cardinal starter is unsettled; both Brad Penny (who's turn it would be) and Kyle Lohse are on the DL after injuries suffered this weekend. From the Cardinal perspective, it's great to bring a kid up and pitch in a pitcher's ballpark. From the Padre perspective, it's fresh meat.
Amazingly, this series will pit two division leaders against each other (amazing because none of us expected the Padres to be in first place the week before Memorial Day) You'd think that'd mean a Wednesday Night Baseball gig, right?
No, it'll be Yankees/Twins. What-ever.
Coupled with a Dodger loss, and our Friars find themselves still in first as we start play this week. This is becoming a trend.
This will be a short 'catch up' post, where I make a couple of announcements. First, we've added two new players to the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars: Milton Bradley and Chase Utley. Anytime a player exists with the name of a major board gaming company of my youth they are automatically inducted on this roster. If there was a McGraw Hill or a Parker Brothers playing at the major league level, they'd be on the team too. Chase Utley sounds like a guy with 'a tea cup on [his] lap and ticker-tape coming out of [his] ears'* as opposed to the best power-hitting second baseman in the game. That's enough. Also, with Yuri playing short, we need some help up the middle.
*Can anyone name the movie that line appears in? I'll give something to the winner. Not sure what, but it'll be nice.
Second, I've been asked to write about the Padres over at Baseball Digest.com, and have accepted. My first story went up today. I hope to make it a regular weekly feature over there.
Finally, since the next Padre opponent is the other MLB team I blog about, I am going to try something daring: do a game recap for each of the 3 Cardinal/Padre games from the perspective of each team's fanbase. I don't think this has been attempted anywhere ever by the same writer. It might suck, it might be great, it might cause the Mayan Doomsday Prophecy to happen 2 years early - I don't know. But it'll be fun nonetheless.
The Cardinals are scuffling right now but are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league. St Louis has had some success at Petco (10-9 against the Padres since the park opened). Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the NL, and the ace of the Cardinal staff. Jon Garland has his work cut out for him, because the Padre offense won't get much from Adam. Jamie Garcia is an early favorite for Rookie of the Year. The other Cardinal starter is unsettled; both Brad Penny (who's turn it would be) and Kyle Lohse are on the DL after injuries suffered this weekend. From the Cardinal perspective, it's great to bring a kid up and pitch in a pitcher's ballpark. From the Padre perspective, it's fresh meat.
Amazingly, this series will pit two division leaders against each other (amazing because none of us expected the Padres to be in first place the week before Memorial Day) You'd think that'd mean a Wednesday Night Baseball gig, right?
No, it'll be Yankees/Twins. What-ever.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Well That's More Like It
OK, first a mea culpa. I spent last week in TAP class. TAP stands for Transition Assistance Program, and is one of many things the military offers folks getting ready to 'transition' prepare for life on the outside. The class was great, but it also meant I had to do actual work in the evenings - so I didn't get to write much.
Friday is softball night in these here parts, so I was able to listen to the game on the drive up to Hourglass. I got out of the car with the Padres down 3-2 and Wade LeBlanc in a heck of a jam. I got back in the car in time to hear San Diego score ... and make the score 15-5 Mariners. Of all the things I thought would happen during Friday night's game, 23 runs and 30 hits combined did not enter into my calculations.
I don't think Wade LeBlanc enjoys his trips to Seattle.
Tonight's game was much more like what I expected when two of the weakest offenses in baseball hooked up. Matt Stairs popped a couple of stitches on the ball he hit, didn't he? True to form, the winning run scored on a wild pitch (USS Mariner has been rather vocal regarding the state of play by Seattle catchers this season. Josh Bard has been the best of the bunch). I thought Heath Bell was going to blow the save, but he managed to strike out Milton Bradley and get Casey Kotchman to ground out to end the game with runners on the corners.
So the Padres stay tied for first with Los Angeles, and open up a 2.5 game lead on San Francisco.
Tomorrow's game should be a doozy - Mat Latos and Felix Hernandez. Looking forward to it.
Friday is softball night in these here parts, so I was able to listen to the game on the drive up to Hourglass. I got out of the car with the Padres down 3-2 and Wade LeBlanc in a heck of a jam. I got back in the car in time to hear San Diego score ... and make the score 15-5 Mariners. Of all the things I thought would happen during Friday night's game, 23 runs and 30 hits combined did not enter into my calculations.
I don't think Wade LeBlanc enjoys his trips to Seattle.
Tonight's game was much more like what I expected when two of the weakest offenses in baseball hooked up. Matt Stairs popped a couple of stitches on the ball he hit, didn't he? True to form, the winning run scored on a wild pitch (USS Mariner has been rather vocal regarding the state of play by Seattle catchers this season. Josh Bard has been the best of the bunch). I thought Heath Bell was going to blow the save, but he managed to strike out Milton Bradley and get Casey Kotchman to ground out to end the game with runners on the corners.
So the Padres stay tied for first with Los Angeles, and open up a 2.5 game lead on San Francisco.
Tomorrow's game should be a doozy - Mat Latos and Felix Hernandez. Looking forward to it.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
5/15 Game Recap: Dodgers vs Padres
Went to tonight's ball game. It did not turn out like I had hoped, as San Diego lost to LA 4-1. This is not your normal recap.
- Since the game was advertised a sellout, I felt we had to get there early. So, my father-in-law and I left for the ballpark at 3:20 pm. Thanks to little traffic, we were parked by 3:50 and in the ballpark by 4.
- Hot Dogs and soda. mmmmm.
- The section immediately to our right was loaded with Dodger fans. Also, the 4 folks immediately behind us were LA fans as well. They rooted for their team with gusto, and got obnoxious from time to time, but I really didn't have a problem with any of that. Having spent a great deal of time rooting for favorite teams in opposing ballparks, so long as they aren't in my face or throwing things at people I'm good. Of course, as the game went on and the Dodgers put a hammer lock on the outcome, they got more and more vocal. And after the game? Whooo boy. Lots of chanting and heckling as they exited the building.
- Why give out 'Beat LA' t-shirts that are blue? Yes it was a dark blue, but the Dodgers wear blue too. Why not Sand (or, egads, brown/yellow)? Make it stand out, marketing gurus.
- Also, 'Beat LA' is what they chant in San Francisco at Giants games, and in Boston at Celtics games. I think the chant originated in the Boston Garden during the 1980s NBA finals, but I could be wrong. We need something different and original here to poke at the Dodgers.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Giant Killers
Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Padres would win the first six games of the season from the Giants, but that is exactly what has happened. Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Padres would have the best record in the NL after 34 games, but that is exactly what has happened. Never in my wildest dreams did I think Mat Latos would beat the Giants twice by a 1-0 score, but that is exactly what has happened.
I don't know if this is an indictiment of my dreams or the Padres are a better team than believed before the season started.
On the Podcast last night we talked about some potential problems the Padres have that could derail this strong start. The superior pitching (starters due to regress, bullpen perhaps not). Kyle Blanks' struggles at the plate. The offensive hole at shortstop. I also pointed out, however, the Pythagorean record for these Padres is 23-11. Their actual record is 22-12. This isn't a fluke, folks - they're playing as well as their record reflects.
Whether it's sustainable or not for the bulk of the season remains to be seen. Fangraphs' Jack Moore posted today on how wide open the NL is in 2010 - seriously, almost everyone has a shot right now. Should the Padres come back to earth and play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll win 86 games. That might be good enough this year to win the Wild Card.
Some food for thought as we head into our first series with the Dodgers this weekend:
Coupled with his first start against Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos has now twice been involved in something this season not seen at the Major League level in at least 35 years. Yesterday's game was more impressive because it's been 60 years since a pitcher did that.
He's killing the Giants in new and inventive ways.
Padres start a 5 game homestand tonight. Saturday's game is sold out, and I'll be there. Get out to the stadium and root on the best team in the NL. They deserve it.
I don't know if this is an indictiment of my dreams or the Padres are a better team than believed before the season started.
On the Podcast last night we talked about some potential problems the Padres have that could derail this strong start. The superior pitching (starters due to regress, bullpen perhaps not). Kyle Blanks' struggles at the plate. The offensive hole at shortstop. I also pointed out, however, the Pythagorean record for these Padres is 23-11. Their actual record is 22-12. This isn't a fluke, folks - they're playing as well as their record reflects.
Whether it's sustainable or not for the bulk of the season remains to be seen. Fangraphs' Jack Moore posted today on how wide open the NL is in 2010 - seriously, almost everyone has a shot right now. Should the Padres come back to earth and play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll win 86 games. That might be good enough this year to win the Wild Card.
Some food for thought as we head into our first series with the Dodgers this weekend:
- San Diego has had a few longer winning streaks against the Giants. To wit:
- Seven straight in 1982 (4/14 to 6/27),
- Ten straight in 1996 (5/1 to 9/16),
- Eight straight in 2007 (6/26 to 9/16).
- San Diego has never won the first 6 games of a season series from the Giants, though.
- Oddly (and as pointed out by Jerry Coleman I believe), both series with the Giants have produced the same game scores: one game 3-2, one game 5-2, and one game 1-0.
- Jonathan Sanchez is probably talking to himself. In his two starts against San Diego this year, he's thrown 15 innings, struck out 15 Padres, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He's lost both games.
- Since 1969 there have been 38 games decided 1-0 where the winning pitcher threw 9 innings gave up only 1 hit.
- Since 1920 there have been 209 games where the visitor threw a complete game and one-hit the home team.
- Of those 209 games, in only 29 the visiting pitcher threw the one-hitter and won 1-0.
- It was last done to the Giants at home (albeit in Candlestick) on August 20, 1986, by Don Corman of the Philadelphia Phillies.
- It was last done to the Padres at home (in Jack Murphy) on August 3, 1983, by Nolan Ryan of Houston.
- It has been done before by a Padre - the immortal Dan Spillner did it in Wrigley of all places, on June 19, 1974. It was one of 2 shutouts he threw in a year he went 9-11.
Coupled with his first start against Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos has now twice been involved in something this season not seen at the Major League level in at least 35 years. Yesterday's game was more impressive because it's been 60 years since a pitcher did that.
He's killing the Giants in new and inventive ways.
Padres start a 5 game homestand tonight. Saturday's game is sold out, and I'll be there. Get out to the stadium and root on the best team in the NL. They deserve it.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Still in first - YEE HA
First some administrative items. We have a shortstop for the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars, and he is Yuniesky Betancourt. Remember, this is all about the NAME, not the PLAYER. Because if it was about the player, Betancourt'd be DFA'd today. We also have a back-up catcher: Humberto Quintero. I love this name; it sounds like the nom-de-plume of a Roman Emperor.
Back to the Padres. They won 2 of 3 from a bad Astro team over the weekend, which made me smile. They could have swept, but Mujica decided to test the 'Minute Maid Park is a Band Box' theory (and he was proven wrong), and Jerry Hairston AIR-MAILED a throw to first in the ninth (which led to an unearned tying run). Life goes on.
I have one complaint about this series, only one complaint really, and that is why was Jon Garland lifted after 7 innings and 83 pitches on Saturday night? At the time he left, Garland had allowed 3 baserunners (2 hits and a walk), had retired the heart of the Houston order in the seventh, and had retired 7 of the last 8 hitters (he walked Keppinger to start the seventh, then retired him on a double play off the bat of Carlos Lee) he faced.
Eighty-three pitches is the fewest Garland has thrown in a game this season. Why take him out? Adams came in and gave up a run in the eighth, which further irked me. Thankfully Bell slammed the door in the ninth.
I don't understand the 'setup man/closer' mentality when the starter is rolling along. You never know when you might need to tax the bullpen in the future, so if you can rest everybody behind a dominating performance by the starter, I think you should. Sadly the Padres had to go with an emergency starter on Sunday (Correia missed his start due to a family tragedy), which meant they needed all hands on deck.
Granted, Adams/Bell pitching on Saturday didn't figure into why the team lost on Sunday (see Mujica and Hairston, who we discussed above), but the next time it might not work out that way. It just seemed foolish to me.
Padres start a 3-game set in San Francisco tonight. First place is on the line. I hope we can still say that when the Padres/Giants hook up in August - that'd be really cool.
Back to the Padres. They won 2 of 3 from a bad Astro team over the weekend, which made me smile. They could have swept, but Mujica decided to test the 'Minute Maid Park is a Band Box' theory (and he was proven wrong), and Jerry Hairston AIR-MAILED a throw to first in the ninth (which led to an unearned tying run). Life goes on.
I have one complaint about this series, only one complaint really, and that is why was Jon Garland lifted after 7 innings and 83 pitches on Saturday night? At the time he left, Garland had allowed 3 baserunners (2 hits and a walk), had retired the heart of the Houston order in the seventh, and had retired 7 of the last 8 hitters (he walked Keppinger to start the seventh, then retired him on a double play off the bat of Carlos Lee) he faced.
Eighty-three pitches is the fewest Garland has thrown in a game this season. Why take him out? Adams came in and gave up a run in the eighth, which further irked me. Thankfully Bell slammed the door in the ninth.
I don't understand the 'setup man/closer' mentality when the starter is rolling along. You never know when you might need to tax the bullpen in the future, so if you can rest everybody behind a dominating performance by the starter, I think you should. Sadly the Padres had to go with an emergency starter on Sunday (Correia missed his start due to a family tragedy), which meant they needed all hands on deck.
Granted, Adams/Bell pitching on Saturday didn't figure into why the team lost on Sunday (see Mujica and Hairston, who we discussed above), but the next time it might not work out that way. It just seemed foolish to me.
Padres start a 3-game set in San Francisco tonight. First place is on the line. I hope we can still say that when the Padres/Giants hook up in August - that'd be really cool.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Pitching Pitching and More Pitching (and lots of links!)
First, if haven't seen this team play (and judging by the attendance, you haven't), the Padres have managed to win a few games here and there. With last night's 3-2 win, they sit 1.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West.
How are they doing it? Not so much with the bat (19th overall in team AVG, 19th in wOBA, 19th in OPS), although they are 13th in BABIP.
Nope, it's been all about the pitching (4th in FIP, 1st in xFIP, 3rd in ERA). In this series, they've had to have the pitching, because they've scored only 5 runs against the Colorado Rockies (while allowing 7), and yet have split the first two games of the series.
Kevin Correia pitched well Monday, but Ubaldo Jimenez was flat-out better. That happens.
Speaking of Jimenez, Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the great names in baseball today, along with Yorvit Torrealba. As such, they are now charter members of the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars, dedicated to recognizing great MLB player names. Have a nominee? Leave it in the comments. Needs to be a current player, unless it's one of such superior quality it transcends time.
Wade LeBlanc - 6 innings, 2 ER, 4 K? Slacker. Actually, he continues to strengthen his case for staying in the rotation long-term. Had the Padres cashed in on any of the numerous chances Greg Smith created for them, Wade could have been the winning pitcher in this one. Wade is second only to Correia in xFIP among the starters; in fact, the two of them are the only starters with xFIP's under 4.00.
We've talked a lot about LeBlanc vs Latos in the rotation; the original post on the subject generated discussion at at least three different Padres websites. One of the Ducksnorts commenters suggested, should CY be activated, the odd man out be Sean Gallagher. Based on his numbers, that makes a lot of sense. As far as who would go to the pen in his place, I'd think I'd keep riding the hot hand in the rotation and send Latos there. That, of course, is subject to change based on how the season progresses.
Speaking of Chris Young...
How are they doing it? Not so much with the bat (19th overall in team AVG, 19th in wOBA, 19th in OPS), although they are 13th in BABIP.
Nope, it's been all about the pitching (4th in FIP, 1st in xFIP, 3rd in ERA). In this series, they've had to have the pitching, because they've scored only 5 runs against the Colorado Rockies (while allowing 7), and yet have split the first two games of the series.
Kevin Correia pitched well Monday, but Ubaldo Jimenez was flat-out better. That happens.
Wade LeBlanc - 6 innings, 2 ER, 4 K? Slacker. Actually, he continues to strengthen his case for staying in the rotation long-term. Had the Padres cashed in on any of the numerous chances Greg Smith created for them, Wade could have been the winning pitcher in this one. Wade is second only to Correia in xFIP among the starters; in fact, the two of them are the only starters with xFIP's under 4.00.
We've talked a lot about LeBlanc vs Latos in the rotation; the original post on the subject generated discussion at at least three different Padres websites. One of the Ducksnorts commenters suggested, should CY be activated, the odd man out be Sean Gallagher. Based on his numbers, that makes a lot of sense. As far as who would go to the pen in his place, I'd think I'd keep riding the hot hand in the rotation and send Latos there. That, of course, is subject to change based on how the season progresses.
Speaking of Chris Young...
Monday, May 3, 2010
Mow them down
Our season ticket package included tonight's game, and needless to say it portended to be a doozy. Ubaldo Jimenez, you may have read, is pretty good; something about 5-0, 0.79 ERA, and a no-hitter coming into the game. Kevin Correia has won his last 4 starts after losing his first in Colorado. AND, I have both on my NL-only Rotisserie team. Oh, goody. Except that life intervened, and we couldn't make the game. Luckily I had an inkling this might happen, and set the TIVO to record it, which I watched on fast forward (always an interesting way to watch a game).
It's one thing to watch Yovani Gallardo strike out 11 Padres with a large assist from the home plate Umpire. It's quite another to watch someone strikeout 13 by completely overpowering the Padres. Ubaldo overpowered the Padres. Joe Posnanski famously predicted Ubaldo Jimenez would win the NL Cy Young. Seeing as he's started 6-0 this season, it's easy to see why, and agree with him.
As dominant at Jimenez was, the Padres had their chances. First and third, two out in the first (Venable strikes out swinging - albeit strike 2 and 3 were check-swing strikes courtesy of the appeal to third) Hairston left at third in the second (he made it there with one out). Torrealba left at second in the third. Gwynn Jr left at third in the fourth. After Gwynn was stranded, however, Rockie pitchers retired 12 in a row; by then, there were two out in the ninth and the Padres trailed 5-1.
You can't win them all. Had we been there, we would have seen the Padres lose for the second time this season; they've lost 4 times at home all year. So apparently, I should be allowed in the building for all Home Openers (having seen the Padres score 10 or more runs in an inning on Opening Day twice), and not for any other game (I'm 1-2 in the other 3 games, the Padres are 9-4 at home since the Opening Day blowout).
Today's interesting tidbit (and thanks for reading this far). Last night marked the 84th time at least 14 Padres have struck out in a game. They've also struck out 29 times combined in two separate games over a span of three days or less several times in their history (courtesy of the team batting game finder feature at Baseball Reference):
It's one thing to watch Yovani Gallardo strike out 11 Padres with a large assist from the home plate Umpire. It's quite another to watch someone strikeout 13 by completely overpowering the Padres. Ubaldo overpowered the Padres. Joe Posnanski famously predicted Ubaldo Jimenez would win the NL Cy Young. Seeing as he's started 6-0 this season, it's easy to see why, and agree with him.
As dominant at Jimenez was, the Padres had their chances. First and third, two out in the first (Venable strikes out swinging - albeit strike 2 and 3 were check-swing strikes courtesy of the appeal to third) Hairston left at third in the second (he made it there with one out). Torrealba left at second in the third. Gwynn Jr left at third in the fourth. After Gwynn was stranded, however, Rockie pitchers retired 12 in a row; by then, there were two out in the ninth and the Padres trailed 5-1.
You can't win them all. Had we been there, we would have seen the Padres lose for the second time this season; they've lost 4 times at home all year. So apparently, I should be allowed in the building for all Home Openers (having seen the Padres score 10 or more runs in an inning on Opening Day twice), and not for any other game (I'm 1-2 in the other 3 games, the Padres are 9-4 at home since the Opening Day blowout).
Today's interesting tidbit (and thanks for reading this far). Last night marked the 84th time at least 14 Padres have struck out in a game. They've also struck out 29 times combined in two separate games over a span of three days or less several times in their history (courtesy of the team batting game finder feature at Baseball Reference):
- June 17 and 19, 2008 (Yankees)
- May 23 and 25, 2008 (Reds - San Diego actually won the game on the 25th, 12-9, although they struck out 19 times in that game)
- 14/15 May, 2008 (Cubs) (BOY that 2008 team struck out a lot)
- 21/22 Apr 2006 (Mets - won the 21 Apr game 2-1)
- 6 and 8 July, 1995 (Astros)
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Hoffman Saves win for Rob Drake - home plate umpire
Yovani Gallardo pitched a great game - 1 ER, 121 pitches, 11K. Interestingly, 7 of those strikeouts were looking. Having watched most of the game, I thought home plate umpire Rob Drake called a generous left corner (as I looked at it through the CF camera). Pitches off the plate, from belt high to a baseball width below the knees, on that corner were called strikes.
As a result, fourteen Padres were punched out, along with eight Brewers. Of the 54 outs recorded, 22 were by strikeout. And they say umpires can't have an effect on the game.
We also learned what it takes to wake up the normally sedate Padre crowd: Adrian Gonzalez getting ejected. Jerry Hairston Jr's reaction after being called out to end the sixth didn't to it, but Adrian arguing about his second called strike three did. All the strike 3 pitches were off the plate, at least, based on the excellent view I had from my couch.
Why is it umpires today feel the need to return fire when a player questions a ball/strike call? Did Drake really need to point at Gonzo while Headley was shepherding Adrian to the dugout? Gonzo's an All-Star and one of the best players in the NL, so you decide to take issue with HIS arguing, as opposed to Hairston Jr who has a little less notoriety?
At any rate, the fans really got on Drake after that. At least until Hoffman came in. It's tough for me to watch Trevor pitch against the Padres, given how many games he saved for the Padres during his career. Hoffman has struggled on the mound this season, blowing at least 4 saves I can remember. But he was able to retire the Padres in order tonight for the win.
There's been a lot of bad umpiring behind the plate in this series, and tomorrow we get Joe West. Yee Ha.
As a result, fourteen Padres were punched out, along with eight Brewers. Of the 54 outs recorded, 22 were by strikeout. And they say umpires can't have an effect on the game.
We also learned what it takes to wake up the normally sedate Padre crowd: Adrian Gonzalez getting ejected. Jerry Hairston Jr's reaction after being called out to end the sixth didn't to it, but Adrian arguing about his second called strike three did. All the strike 3 pitches were off the plate, at least, based on the excellent view I had from my couch.
Why is it umpires today feel the need to return fire when a player questions a ball/strike call? Did Drake really need to point at Gonzo while Headley was shepherding Adrian to the dugout? Gonzo's an All-Star and one of the best players in the NL, so you decide to take issue with HIS arguing, as opposed to Hairston Jr who has a little less notoriety?
At any rate, the fans really got on Drake after that. At least until Hoffman came in. It's tough for me to watch Trevor pitch against the Padres, given how many games he saved for the Padres during his career. Hoffman has struggled on the mound this season, blowing at least 4 saves I can remember. But he was able to retire the Padres in order tonight for the win.
There's been a lot of bad umpiring behind the plate in this series, and tomorrow we get Joe West. Yee Ha.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
There may be something to this
The Padres broke their 8-game winning streak on Sunday, when Mike Adams gave up 2 runs in the eighth to Cincinnati. They lost that game 5-4. They then went out and got drubbed by Florida (thanks Josh Johnson) 10-1.
Ut-oh. Was that the beginning of a crash to earth for the Padres? With Garland pitching Tuesday night (who had struggled so far in 2010), and Correia on Wednesday (who is not the same pitcher on the road he is at home), one wondered if the salad days were over. Remember, they started 2009 9-3 and then struggled mightily until after the All-Star break.
Nope. Jon Garland was tremendous for the second start in a row. Correia? Well, Kevin wobbled through 5 yesterday, but the offense bailed him out, and the bullpen slammed the door getting the last 12 outs. Series win.
The Padres return tonight off a 4-2 road trip, and in sole possession of first place in the Division. Nice. They face a sterner test this weekend in the offensively-loaded Milwaukee Brewers, but Milwaukee's Achilles heel is it's starting pitching, so they have a good chance to keep the momentum going.
Adding fuel to the fire of hope starting to burn brightly around San Diego is Daniel's latest post. During the off-season, the team shifted gears slightly by emphasizing team speed and defense on the roster. So far, they rank #1 in the league in UZR/150 and third in Defensive Runs Saved. Given how hard it is to score runs in Petco, and the old saw 'speed never goes into a slump', that has all the earmarks of a sustainable approach to the season.
With the bullpen being lights out as usual (and in spite of my concerns regarding overuse), the starters just need to be good enough, and the offensive just needs to be average, for this team to compete. And contend.
There may be something to this. It could be a fun summer in San Diego.
Tonight I'm at the ballpark (7:05 start). It's Podcast night, but the 'Cast may not start promptly at 10pm, based on the game. I won't start the show until the game is over and I'm in the car headed home, which means if you've got a comment for the chat room or want to call in PLEASE BE PATIENT. I won't know you're there until I'm back in front of my computer, which might be a while (depending on traffic).
Ut-oh. Was that the beginning of a crash to earth for the Padres? With Garland pitching Tuesday night (who had struggled so far in 2010), and Correia on Wednesday (who is not the same pitcher on the road he is at home), one wondered if the salad days were over. Remember, they started 2009 9-3 and then struggled mightily until after the All-Star break.
Nope. Jon Garland was tremendous for the second start in a row. Correia? Well, Kevin wobbled through 5 yesterday, but the offense bailed him out, and the bullpen slammed the door getting the last 12 outs. Series win.
The Padres return tonight off a 4-2 road trip, and in sole possession of first place in the Division. Nice. They face a sterner test this weekend in the offensively-loaded Milwaukee Brewers, but Milwaukee's Achilles heel is it's starting pitching, so they have a good chance to keep the momentum going.
Adding fuel to the fire of hope starting to burn brightly around San Diego is Daniel's latest post. During the off-season, the team shifted gears slightly by emphasizing team speed and defense on the roster. So far, they rank #1 in the league in UZR/150 and third in Defensive Runs Saved. Given how hard it is to score runs in Petco, and the old saw 'speed never goes into a slump', that has all the earmarks of a sustainable approach to the season.
With the bullpen being lights out as usual (and in spite of my concerns regarding overuse), the starters just need to be good enough, and the offensive just needs to be average, for this team to compete. And contend.
There may be something to this. It could be a fun summer in San Diego.
Tonight I'm at the ballpark (7:05 start). It's Podcast night, but the 'Cast may not start promptly at 10pm, based on the game. I won't start the show until the game is over and I'm in the car headed home, which means if you've got a comment for the chat room or want to call in PLEASE BE PATIENT. I won't know you're there until I'm back in front of my computer, which might be a while (depending on traffic).
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Latos vs LeBlanc in the rotation?
Something I've been thinking about for the better part of a week is what to do with Wade LeBlanc. The reasons why I've been wondering, well, I'll explain at the bottom of the post. The Padres are in an enviable position, because they will have too many starting pitchers when Chris Young comes off the DL. Note that I'm not considering Tim Stauffer, who was a candidate to start during spring training, in this discussion, as he is doing a nice job out of the Padre bullpen. San Diego has been able to let Chris Young rehab at his own pace is because of their depth in the rotation.
LeBlanc has pitched very well since taking CY's spot in the rotation. Latos, outside of the scintillating start against San Francisco, has struggled. With Young almost ready to resume his place, the Padres have a tough call to make: who gets sent back to Portland?
Here's my thought: it's not as simple as giving Wade LeBlanc a ticket to Oregon. Based on performance so far this year, Latos might be a better choice.
Let's take the emotion out of it and look at this objectively.
1. Latos (4 starts): 20 1/3 IP, 14 R (all earned), 24 H, 6 BB, 13K, 5 HR. WHIP = 1.527, ERA = 6.20. Granted, half the runs he allowed happened last night.
2. LeBlanc (2 starts): 11 IP, 1 R (earned), 10 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR. WHIP = 1.273, ERA = 0.82.
LeBlanc, despite making two fewer starts and throwing 9 1/3 fewer innings, has only three fewer strikeouts, is allowing fewer baserunners, and has a miniscule ERA.
Since Earned Run Average is an inherently flawed metric, a deeper look is in order. Here are a little more advanced statistics, ones currently commonly accepted as being good measures of the quality of a pitcher (i.e., they take the defense out of the equation). The first two take into account Latos' start last night, the last two don't.
K/BB ratio: Latos 2.16, LeBlanc 2.5.
K/9: Latos 5.76, LeBlanc 8.18.
FIP: Latos 5.46, LeBlanc 2.30.
xFIP: Latos 3.99, LeBlanc 3.42.
You can keep looking at your convenience. By all the statistical measures I reviewed, however, at this moment in history Wade LeBlanc is pitching better than Mat Latos. I'm not saying we should give up on Latos, or that 4 years down the road he won't be the best starter on the team - we shouldn't, and he might. But today - for this team - LeBlanc is currently the better option.
And let's not forget how close the #5 starter competition was in spring training. Latos beat-out LeBlanc the last week of March, so it's not like Latos' making the team was a slam-dunk. These guys graded out virtually even, with Latos being just slightly better.
So who do the Padres send down? They ought to, in my opinion, seriously consider Latos. Now, LeBlanc's next start is at home against Milwaukee (Thursday night). If he lays an egg, then perhaps you keep working with Latos and send LeBlanc back down. But if LeBlanc shuts down theMarlins Brewers, a team that just got finished torturing Latos a very good hitting team, well, that's another point for Wade staying in San Diego.
I really need to hire a proofreader.
(why I started pondering this: I have Wade LeBlanc on my NL-only Rotisserie League fantasy team, and I was trying to decide if I should keep him or trade him.)
LeBlanc has pitched very well since taking CY's spot in the rotation. Latos, outside of the scintillating start against San Francisco, has struggled. With Young almost ready to resume his place, the Padres have a tough call to make: who gets sent back to Portland?
Here's my thought: it's not as simple as giving Wade LeBlanc a ticket to Oregon. Based on performance so far this year, Latos might be a better choice.
Let's take the emotion out of it and look at this objectively.
1. Latos (4 starts): 20 1/3 IP, 14 R (all earned), 24 H, 6 BB, 13K, 5 HR. WHIP = 1.527, ERA = 6.20. Granted, half the runs he allowed happened last night.
2. LeBlanc (2 starts): 11 IP, 1 R (earned), 10 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR. WHIP = 1.273, ERA = 0.82.
LeBlanc, despite making two fewer starts and throwing 9 1/3 fewer innings, has only three fewer strikeouts, is allowing fewer baserunners, and has a miniscule ERA.
Since Earned Run Average is an inherently flawed metric, a deeper look is in order. Here are a little more advanced statistics, ones currently commonly accepted as being good measures of the quality of a pitcher (i.e., they take the defense out of the equation). The first two take into account Latos' start last night, the last two don't.
K/BB ratio: Latos 2.16, LeBlanc 2.5.
K/9: Latos 5.76, LeBlanc 8.18.
FIP: Latos 5.46, LeBlanc 2.30.
xFIP: Latos 3.99, LeBlanc 3.42.
You can keep looking at your convenience. By all the statistical measures I reviewed, however, at this moment in history Wade LeBlanc is pitching better than Mat Latos. I'm not saying we should give up on Latos, or that 4 years down the road he won't be the best starter on the team - we shouldn't, and he might. But today - for this team - LeBlanc is currently the better option.
And let's not forget how close the #5 starter competition was in spring training. Latos beat-out LeBlanc the last week of March, so it's not like Latos' making the team was a slam-dunk. These guys graded out virtually even, with Latos being just slightly better.
So who do the Padres send down? They ought to, in my opinion, seriously consider Latos. Now, LeBlanc's next start is at home against Milwaukee (Thursday night). If he lays an egg, then perhaps you keep working with Latos and send LeBlanc back down. But if LeBlanc shuts down the
I really need to hire a proofreader.
(why I started pondering this: I have Wade LeBlanc on my NL-only Rotisserie League fantasy team, and I was trying to decide if I should keep him or trade him.)
Monday, April 26, 2010
Two of three ain't bad
Everyone knew the Padres weren't going to finish the season 156-6. They were going to lose another game in 2010. I think most of us, however, figured it wouldn't be yesterday, especially after Kyle Blanks doubled in two to give the team a 4-2 lead after 5 1/2 innings.
Scott Rolen's HR made the game close after 6, but after turning the contest over to the bullpen one had to like the Padres' chances. Going into Sunday, the Padres bullpen was one of only 2 in the NL not to have lost a game (the other? Pittsburgh. Go figure), the third lowest ERA (3.02), and the best Batting Average Against (.190). Looking good.
Unfortunately, Mike Adams couldn't get the game to Heath Bell. Cincinnati scored 2 in the eighth, and won 5-4. Bye-bye, 8 game winning streak.
You gotta like where the Padres are now, though. Form 3-6 to 11-7, and the best record in the NL. The team is pitching its butt off, and they are getting just enough production offensively (10th in the NL with a .736 OPS). There is some cause for concern, though: Padre starters aren't getting deep enough into games.
Scott Rolen's HR made the game close after 6, but after turning the contest over to the bullpen one had to like the Padres' chances. Going into Sunday, the Padres bullpen was one of only 2 in the NL not to have lost a game (the other? Pittsburgh. Go figure), the third lowest ERA (3.02), and the best Batting Average Against (.190). Looking good.
Unfortunately, Mike Adams couldn't get the game to Heath Bell. Cincinnati scored 2 in the eighth, and won 5-4. Bye-bye, 8 game winning streak.
You gotta like where the Padres are now, though. Form 3-6 to 11-7, and the best record in the NL. The team is pitching its butt off, and they are getting just enough production offensively (10th in the NL with a .736 OPS). There is some cause for concern, though: Padre starters aren't getting deep enough into games.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Flabbergasted
Yep, that's right - speechless. No way did I expect the Padres to sweep San Francisco, no way did I expect them to win 7 of 9 on this homestand, no way did I expect them to be in first place by themselves today.
It's nice to be wrong sometimes. It does leave one with little to say.
The Padres have tonight off and are enroute to Cincinnati. Your projected matchups:
Friday - Correia vs Johnny Cueto
Saturday - LeBlanc vs Bronson Arroyo
Sunday - Richard vs Homer Bailey
The winning streak will probably end in Cincinnati, but they can definitely take 2 of the three there.
Podcast tonight at 10pm. You know the drill. Bring your questions and comments. See you then!
It's nice to be wrong sometimes. It does leave one with little to say.
The Padres have tonight off and are enroute to Cincinnati. Your projected matchups:
Friday - Correia vs Johnny Cueto
Saturday - LeBlanc vs Bronson Arroyo
Sunday - Richard vs Homer Bailey
The winning streak will probably end in Cincinnati, but they can definitely take 2 of the three there.
Podcast tonight at 10pm. You know the drill. Bring your questions and comments. See you then!
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