Three and Five

MLB handed down their decision on Yorvit Torrealba's 'discussion' with home plate umpire Larry Vanover Monday night - 3 game suspension.  Yorvit was not amused, as quoted by Chris Jenkins:

If it’s a fine, all right, whatever, but three games is a little bit too much. One game, two games, I’m gonna get my lesson no matter what. But I don’t see umpires getting fined and I don’t see umpires getting suspended. They make a lot of mistakes.

Jon Garland had a choice comment too.  I love this one:

Garland said Wednesday that he’d pay Torrealba’s fine in appreciation for the catcher backing [him] up.

The Padres will appeal the suspension, but now that Torrealba has continued to rip the umpire in the press, I would not expect the length to get reduced.  I wonder if an appeal has ever resulted in the suspension getting longer.  For the record, good for Torrealba for expressing himself clearly, and when will MLB make the review of umpiring performance more transparent?  I think some level of public accountability with umpires who make repeated bad calls, are confrontational, and/or are inconsistent pitch-to-pitch or inning-to-inning would go a long way to restoring their reputation as a whole with the players and fans.

Short Rest and Short Tempers

To start last night's series with the Toronto Blue Jays, the Padres decided to thrown Jon Garland on three days (or short) rest.  Garland has not fared well in short rest situations; in fact, according to facts I heard after the game, he had only made 2 previous career starts on 3 days rest and was 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA.  Even if you are one who does not put a lot of stock in the traditional statistics (and as a general rule, I do not), those numbers do not portend to a good result.

So watching Garland labor through 3 innings while throwing 84 pitches was no surprise.  One would think throwing that many pitches meant he wasn't pitching well.  In fact, he got 6 of those 9 outs via strikeout.  The John Buck 2-run shot in the second hurt, but what really killed him was the walk to Toronto starter Shaun Marcum with two out in the same inning.  In fact, it appeared Marcum got a borderline pitch called a ball on a 2-2 count, then proceeded to walk.

It also appeared that call got to Garland - as evidenced by the 2 doubles he then gave up, and the two looks he gave home plate umpire Larry Vanover as he left the field.  Garland eventually made it through 5, and allowed only one hit the rest of the way (a two-out single to Lyle Overbay in the fifth).

In the meantime, the Padres were hitting home runs too - except theirs came with no one on.  Jerry Hairston Jr homered to lead off the third, an inning after he was left in the batters box while Will Venable was caught stealing.  Adrian Gonzalez homered leading off the fourth, cutting the deficit in half. 

The Curious Case of Edward Mujica came on, and while he didn't give up a tater, he didn't disappoint by allowing another run to score.  With the score 5-2 the Padres finally got a look at the game.  Singles by Scott 'Big Country'* Hairston and Venable sandwiched Yorvit Torrealba reaching on an error by the Toronto shortstop Alex Gonzalez**.

*The stadium PA system played 'Big Country' by Big Country before Hairston's first at bat in the second inning.  He will forever be known as Big Country on this blog.

** Yorvit wore out Gonzalez in this game - single to short, ground out to short, reach on an error by short.  He didn't get a chance to go for the quad though...

Unfortunately, the Hairston Jr just missed a Marcum fastball and popped out to left.  Not deep enough to score the run.  The Gwynn Jr then hit a slow roller to third.  A run scored, but there were two out.  Oscar Salazer's soft line out to center ended the majority of the drama for this game.

That is, until the earthquake hit in the eighth.  I truly was not worried until the tremor kept going and going.  The PA announcement to 'REMAIN CALM' did more to excite the crowd than the earthquake did.  Of course, I immediately said, to no one in particular, "They're not out of coffee are they?  THEY BETTER NOT RUN OUT OF COFFEE!!!" fully realizing no one under 40 would get that joke.  Judging from the high school kids looking at me quizzically, they didn't.

The final excitement was Torrealba's final at bat of the night, with Big Country on first and no one out.  Based on Torrealba's reaction the pitch was inside; my seats did not support a good angle to see the pitch. Vanover called it strike three and Yorvit went ballistic.  Vanover stuck his finger in Torrealba's face (here we go again), and Torrealba got right in his grill.  Yorvit also bumped the umpire a couple of times.

Yorvit's going to get fined and probably suspended, and that's too bad.  I'll save my umpire rant for the Podcast.*

*I'll also point out that on my last Podcast I stated the Blue Jays had never played San Diego.  That's wrong, they faced off in San Diego back in 2004.  The Padres have never played in Toronto.

The Curious Case of Edward Mujica

Edward Mujica has a bad case of Gopher-ball-itis in 2010, up to and including the decisive, mammoth shot he surrendered to Ike Davis on Tuesday in the eleventh.  Last year he gave up a home run about every 7 innings (14 in 93 2/3 innings pitched).  This year it's every four (8 in 29).  Is the 2010 trend a sign of worry?

For analysis like this, I find Fangraphs the best site to look at.  Comparing 2009 to 2010 we find:

• Mujica's K/9, BB/9, WHIP, and BABIP are all better this year than they were in 2009.  In some cases, significantly so (like BABIP is currently 100 points better, .213 from .316)
• He's throwing more ground balls (his GB/FB rate is up) and giving up fewer line drives (13.2% vice 17.2%0
• His velocities are about the same:
• Fastball averaging 92.4 (2010), 92.7 last year
• Slider averaging 82.1, 82.7 last year
• Split finger fastball averaging 87.5, 86.9 last year
• Hitters contact rates are virtually identical to what they were last year.  Hitters are swinging at more pitches out of the zone, and Mujica is getting more swinging strikes.

By those metrics, there really isn't an explanation.  The only thing I can find is he's throwing a lot more splitter this year (up about 15%) than last, and he's not throwing as many fastballs (down 9%) and sliders (down 5%).  I don't know if favoring the split has led to a higher HR rate (it doesn't make sense, because the split is evaluated as his best pitch right now) or not, but it's the only major change Mujica seems to have made in 2010.

All his metrics indicate he's pitching better, but he's getting hammered by the long ball.  Odd. 

5 June San Diego SABR meeting Wrap-up

As I promoted last week, the San Diego SABR Chapter hosted the first of two mini-regionals on June 5.  The focus of the meeting was Andy Strasburg's Fantography project, his effort to preserve for posterity those great baseball photos we all have that may never be seen outside our families or Vacation slide shows.

Yes I realize many of you have never sat through Vacation photos at someone else's house, and have never seen a slide projector.  Ah for the days when all you needed was a light bulb and a blank wall to look at photos, instead of an HD TV or a $200 photo frame a memory stick plugged into.  But I digress.

Thirty-two baseball enthusiasts made their way to La Jolla for the meeting. That's slightly above average for a San Diego SABR event, and many thanks to all who attended.  Andy presented some of the photos he has collected during the project, and back story for many of them.  After Andy's remarks, a couple of folks who had contributed their photos talked about the ones they had donated.

David Nuffer speaks to the group (Photo:  Andy Strasburg)

Howard Frank tells his story (Photo:  Andy Strasburg)

Bret Moutow.  Yes even Cubs fans are welcome here (Photo: Andy Strasburg)

I make the Cub crack tongue-in-cheek.  As you know from attending Cub games, they have a large and vocal following in these here parts.  Some of them attend our SABR meetings regularly, and they contribute a lot to the chapter and the discussion.

At any rate, the meeting ran about 60 minutes, with a lot of discussion after it broke up among the attendees and Andy.  Sounds like a great event, I'm sorry I missed it.

Our next mini-regional meeting will be 19 June with current MLB Umpire Joe Cuzzi.  Grab you Dad and head to the La Jolla library.

(Thanks to Tom Larwin for providing the photos in this post.)

Padres drop a heartbreaker on Strasmus Day

In case you couldn't tear yourself away from the ancient and royal festivities surrounding Strasmus Day in our Nation's capital, the Padres played a tense game last night in New York.

(They say Stephen Strasburg walked on the Potomac as part of his game preparation.)

A Chase Headley single and Adrian Gonzalez double with one out in the first started the Padres off, and for a long while it looked like it would be enough.  Clayton Richard threw very well and had a shutout with two out in the seventh, when Jose Reyes hit the tying HR to left (although that shot would have to be confirmed via replay).

(Strasburg free climbs the Washington Monument as part of his strength and conditioning program.)

San Diego had opportunities to forge ahead.  Lance Zawadzki doubled with one out in the eighth and was left.  Scott Hairston got to second thanks to a David Wright throwing error and was stranded.  David Eckstein singled and was moved to second on a sacrifice bunt, but he stayed right there.  One only gets so many opportunities to win a game.

(Strasburg puts his pants on both legs at the same time without jumping.)

Based on bullpen usage during the Philadelphia series, Edward Mujica was the most rested arm down there as this game headed into extras.  Mujica has allowed the second most HR by a reliever in the NL behind only Juan Guitterez of Arizona, and he crept closer in that department as Ike Davis rounded the bases off him.  2-1 Mets in 11.

(Strasburg has sent his Mom flowers every day since he signed his ML contract.)

Coupled with another Dodger win, the Padres fell out of first place for the first time since April 19.  It doesn't get any easier for San Diego, they get Johan Santana again today.

The SABR mini-regional Saturday was a success, and I will have a post on that up later Wednesday.

Podcast time shift and San Diego SABR meetings

What a scintillating win for the Padres to close out a 9-game homestand - an Adrian Gonzalez walk-off Grand Slam.  The Padres went 6-3 over those nine games.  On May 24, these were the standings:

• Padres
• Dodgers 1 game back
• Giants 3.5 games back
• Rockies 4 games back
• D'backs 6.5 games back.

Here they are today:

• Padres
• Dodgers 1 game back
• Giants 3.5 games back
• Rockies 4 games back
• D'backs 12.5 games back.

It sucks when a team plays .667 ball and picks up no ground at all on their division.  Except the Diamondbacks, who might be the worst team in the NL right now.  It tells me the NL West is a much better division than I thought it would be coming into the season.  San Diego continues to have the best record in the league.

Two items for you today.  First, the Padres Trail Podcast is moving to 9pm Pacific starting tonight (that's 2100 for those of you in the military).  Although I'd like to say it's due to fan requests, it's actually because Burn Notice returns to USA tonight... at 10pm.  Three guesses where I'll be at 10:00.

Second item:  the San Diego SABR chapter has decided to start hosting 'mini-regional' meetings, in addition to our two semi-annual meetings.  The first of these two mini-regionals will be this Saturday, 5 June, at 10am, and will feature Andy Strasburg.  Andy is the Chapter Vice President, but he is two other things as well:  the creator of Fantography, currently on display at the SD Public Library Main Branch, and Roger Maris' biggest fan.

The second mini-regional will be 19 June at 9:30 am, and will feature current umpire Joe Cuzzi,  12-year MLB veteran.  Here's a unique opportunity to talk to one of the game's arbiters that may never pass your way again.  You can ask him about Jim Joyce if you want.

Both events will be held at the La Jolla/Riford Library, 7555 Draper Avenue, La Jolla, CA, 92037.  Admission and parking are free.

I most likely won't make the 5 June meeting due to a previous engagement, but I'm going to move heaven and earth to be at the 19 June one.  If you go to either, PLEASE tell the man at the door you heard about it at Padres Trail!

Do The Padres Need A Hitter?

One of the impressive things about this Padre start is what they've been able to do without much offense.  Coming into Tuesday's action, they had the third lowest wOBA in the National League, yet sported the league's best record.  Naturally their somewhat (somewhat?) anemic offense has started calls for the team to pick up a bat.

Last January, the San Diego SABR chapter was pleased to have Merv Rettenmund speak at one of their semi-annual meetings.  During that meeting, Rettenmund mentioned how Petco Park is very difficult to hit in during April/May, but that the ball "jumps" better once the summer starts.  Since 81 games a year are played at Petco, the park should play a big role in the team's month-to-month wOBA numbers*.  That, coupled with this year's team, got me thinking.  Has the Padre offense improved when the weather warms up, and can the Padres rely on this improvement to give them the 'jump' of offense they need to contend this summer without acquiring another bat?

*Granted, the monthly numbers will be affected by the number of home/road games played in that particular month.  I did not look at the schedules for each month when conducting this analysis.

Thanks to Fangraphs, I took a look at the Padre team wOBA, month by month, since Petco Park opened.  I included Mar-May 2010 in the data set, and threw out the high and low value for each month.  Here's a graph of the averages.

What I find interesting about this graph is, on average, the Padres struggle MORE to get on base once the summer starts (here summer is defined to start on Memorial Day.  Nothing if not a traditional outlook at Padres Trail).  The team wOBA is worse in June and July than it was in March/April, and May.  Note the big jump in August, and that jump is consistent across seasons (and talent levels of teams).

This tells me, although the ball may travel better once June 1 rolls around, it doesn't start jumping until August 1, and the Padres will continue to struggle offensively through 2/3 of the summer.  The team can't wait until August for an offensive boost.  A lot can happen in 60 days, including the Padres sinking completely out of contention.

There are a couple of positions on the diamond (most glaringly, shortstop, Jerry Hairston Jr's 3 HRs in the last 8 games not withstanding) where the Padres would be better off with a better bat.  I'm sure that Jed Hoyer's team, with their renewed emphasis on building a team that fits in Petco, has a list of candidates that could improve the team if on this roster.  It's probably time to start seriously looking at those options.

This team will contend all season given their pitching and defense.  It would be fantastic for their offense to get some help, and get them into the post-season.

(Here's the complete data set)

Yet Another Series Win

This homestand has become exactly what the Padres needed.  Few predicted the team would win 2 of 3 from the powerful St Louis Cardinals, but they did.  Some hoped they'd win 2 of 3 from the resurgent Washington Nationals, but they have.  A quick series recap, in case you've been buried in barbeque this weekend:

• Friday, Clayton Richard gives up a 3-run HR to Josh Willingham which the Padres can't quite overcome.  In the ninth, San Diego scores a run and loads the bases with no one out (down by two), but the rally fizzles.
• Saturday, Nationals second baseman Adam Kennedy can't quite pick up a ground ball in the hole off Adrian Gonzalez's bat.  Chase Headley singles, and Nick Hundley homers to give the Padres an early 3-0 lead.  They win 4-2.
• Sunday, the Padres survived two solo homers by budding Nationals star Ryan Zimmerman to take the game in extra innings.  There another Kennedy error (again with two out, no less) let the Padres get the winning run to second, where rookie Lance Zawadzki singled him home.

So the Padres have taken 4 of 6 on the homestand, and remain in first place two ahead of Los Angeles.  Courtesy of a Cincinnati loss Sunday, they've reclaimed the best record in the league at 30-20.

Two other items for your perusal after the jump.

Can't Win Them All

Although it would be nice, you can't win them all.  When Bud Black stated he didn't think the bullpen would need reinforcements following last night's 13-inning game, it meant Wade LeBlanc would be out there for a while regardless of how poorly he pitched.

And he didn't pitch that poorly, all things considered.  Brendan Ryan had a big day off him (3 hits, including a HR in the fourth).  Albert Pujols homered.  The Padres, on the other hand, couldn't muster anything off Cardinal spot starter PJ Walters, and with no run support LeBlanc was doomed.  Adam Russell pitched two innings for the depleted bullpen and gave up 4 runs, taking the doubt out of the issue.  8-3 Cardinals in the finale.

Padres finished the series 2 for 25 with runners in scoring position, and still managed to win 2 of the 3 games.  That's one of the more ridiculous stats you'll see.  No Sacrifice Flies were hit with a runner on third throughout the 3-game series.

I was at this afternoon's game, but it was a seminal moment - I took my oldest to his first baseball game.  Needless to say we didn't watch the whole game, nor did we stay until the end.  But the boy did get a hit at the Park at the Park field, and we did walk around a lot, and he did eat a lot of Skittles.  A good day.  So, the rest of this post will be photos.

View from our seats.  I like the 1978 jerseys.

Jerry Hairston Jr and David Eckstein

Matt Holliday singled, then got thrown out trying to stretch it to a double, to end the fourth.  Here's LaRussa asking second base umpire Mark Wegner if he has pigeon shit in his eye.

Wade LeBlanc pitched as hard as he could, but it wasn't enough.  Here he is exiting the game in the sixth.

Pitching, Good Fortune, and a Hairston

Went to last night's game.  The Cardinal side of the story is posted here if you care to read it.

First, people driving downtown last night were a****les.  Unbelieveable.  I'm headed down 10th street to the Padres parking structure we usually use, and let a couple of folks in, you know, to be courteous.  Well apparently everyone else in the middle lane then thought I'd just let them in too.  One Padre fan was willing to risk damage to his Lexus SUV in order to cut me off (yes he did emerge unscathed).  Lesson learned:  drive like a jerk too.  It's sad society has come to this.  LA fans driving around were much better.

Okay, cleansing complete.  On to the game.

• Thank GOD Tony LaRussa likes to overmanage.  As Joe Posnanski said recently, he can't help himself.  Granted, hindsight is 20/20, but how much different would last night's game be if:
• Felipe Lopez isn't thrown out stealing in the first, or
• John Jay isn't thrown out at the plate to end the inning, or
• Kyle McClellan comes out instead of pitching to Matt Stairs (Stairs is 0-3, 3K lifetime against Trever Miller), or
• The contact play isn't on with first/third, 0 outs in the 11th.
• Matt Holliday was booed before his first at bat.  Way to go, Padre fans - never forget.  He STILL hasn't touched home plate.
• The Cardinals ended two innings (first and fourth) with a hit and a runner thrown out on the bases.  I don't think I've ever seen that happen twice in a game I attended.
• Dick Enberg pointed this out in the twelfth, and it's amazing:  The Padres are 0-15 this series with runners in scoring position.  They've won both games.  Wow.
• Kevin Correia was more like his old self (before running into Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw twice, sandwiched around the untimely death of his brother) in this game - 6 innings, 5K's.  He danced in and out of trouble for most of the night though.
• It was nice to see Bud Black's learned from recent history, and had Ryan Webb/Luke Gregerson up in the pen as the sixth inning started.  The sixth has by far been the worst inning for Correia - he's surrendered 10 runs in that frame alone.  When Correia loses it, it's not a gentle degrade - he goes bad in a hurry.  You gotta be ready with a quick hook once he gets that deep into the game.
• I've never sat through a more painful inning (for both teams) than the fifth.  Both teams brought their clean up hitter to the plate with the bases loaded.  Both struck out.  Both had a borderline pitch called a strike during the at-bat.  Both wear #7.  Odd.
• You want to make fun of the Padre bullpen?  Don't.  Gregerson/Mike Adams/Heath Bell struck out 7 hitters between them.  Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica bent but didn't break in extras, although Webb was helped by more bonehead Cardinal baserunning.
• I didn't know Adrian Gonzalez had that kind of speed.
• I looked down to update my scorecard, and the next thing I know Stairs has hit the ball in the gap.  He couldn't have thrown it out there in a better spot than rolling the ball under the 401 sign in left-center.  Tremendous theater.
• Tip your cap to Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick.  Those were great at-bats against Bell, who was throwing gas (96 repeatedly on the fastball).
• Luis Durango ALMOST got to the ball Schumaker hit.  In one of a 1000 'what-if's' from this game, what if Durango had given ground and held Schumaker to a single?  Don't know.  Perhaps the inning is different, perhaps not.

Quote of the night comes from Jack in the Box:  "Buy me some peanuts and Sourdough Jacks."  This made me laugh.

Quote of the night #2:  Mark Grant "Hey Dick, what's your scorecard look like?"  Enberg:  "It looks like I left it in the rain."

PJ Walters vs Wade LeBlanc today at 3:35.  Walters is making his first start of the season, and the second start of his major league career (the last was 17 April 09 at Wrigley).  LeBlanc looks to bounce back from a horrible outing in Seattle.  Padres go for the sweep.

Garland, Defense Shut Down Cardinals

Jon Garland walked the high wire, and came away unscathed.   Especially in the first inning.

Before we get to that, a quick comment.  Darren Smith, on the Padre BP show, talked about last year's Cardinal/Padre finale and the Will Venable/Albert Pujols dust-up at first base.  He shed some additional light on that event; apparently AP tends to straddle the first base line when recording outs at first, so the Padres were told to go through him.

Smith, in attempting to recall the specifics of the event, said it occured in September, on Sunday, and the Padres won.  Not quite.  Happened on a Sunday?  Yes.  But, it was 23 Aug 09, and the Padres lost 5-2.  It helps my memory that Smoltz struck out a career best 7 consecutive hitters, and that it was Ryan Franklin's last save in 2009, AND that I wrote about it over here.  Come on Darren.  I know you're a St John's* alum, but you're better than that.

* A little Big East dig, since I went to Villanova.

Garland labored through the first, but got the big strikeouts when he needed them.  His defense backed him up by turning 3 double plays during his seven innings.  Jerry Hairston, Jr, pulled a rabbit out of his hat and hit his first 2010 HR - off Cardinal ace Adam Wainwright, no less.  Another example of the Padres doing just enough to win.

Mike Adams threw an uneventful eighth, and Heath Bell negotiated an interesting ninth (exacerbated by the strike zone, if Ted Leitner/Andy Mazur are to believed) to get the save.

Last night was the third 1-0 win this season by San Diego.  That's the most since 2007, when they won 5 such games.  The franchise record for 1-0 wins is 6, set in 1985.

If I had anything to nit-pick, it would be Adrian Gonzalez striking out 4 times.  However, considering the first three came against the 2009 Cy Young runner-up, that's not much of a nit.

Kevin Correia looks to snap his personal 3-game losing streak tonight against Jamie Garcia.  This will be Kevin's second start at Petco against the Cardinals; he lost the first one 7-0 to Chris Carpenter.  He is 1-2 in 3 career starts facing St Louis.  Five current Redbirds have at least 8 Plate Appearances against him:

1. Felipe Lopez (29 PA):  .200/.286/.280
2. Matt Holliday (25 PA):  .304/.360/.609
3. Albert Pujols (13 PA):  .400/.538/.500
4. Yadier Molina (9 PA):  .143/.250/.143
5. Skip Schumaker (8 PA):  .429/.500/.571

I'll be at the ballpark tonight.  Hope to see you there.

My coverage of the game from the Cardinal perspective can be found here.  Yes the content is different.

Odds and ends and the Cardinals

Well the Latos/Hernandez duel was pretty good, with Latos getting the better of it.  Of course, it didn't hurt the Mariners put a woefully weak lineup on the field for that game (and if you don't read USS Mariner, you should), and their bullpen combusted in the eighth.  Considering the Padres got ambushed on Friday night, taking 2 of 3 over the weekend was a nice turnout.

Coupled with a Dodger loss, and our Friars find themselves still in first as we start play this week.  This is becoming a trend.

This will be a short 'catch up' post, where I make a couple of announcements.  First, we've added two new players to the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars:  Milton Bradley and Chase Utley.  Anytime a player exists with the name of a major board gaming company of my youth they are automatically inducted on this roster.  If there was a McGraw Hill or a Parker Brothers playing at the major league level, they'd be on the team too.  Chase Utley sounds like a guy with 'a tea cup on [his] lap and ticker-tape coming out of [his] ears'* as opposed to the best power-hitting second baseman in the game.  That's enough.  Also, with Yuri playing short, we need some help up the middle.

*Can anyone name the movie that line appears in?  I'll give something to the winner.  Not sure what, but it'll be nice.

Second, I've been asked to write about the Padres over at Baseball Digest.com, and have accepted.   My first story went up today.  I hope to make it a regular weekly feature over there.

Finally, since the next Padre opponent is the other MLB team I blog about, I am going to try something daring:  do a game recap for each of the 3 Cardinal/Padre games from the perspective of each team's fanbase.  I don't think this has been attempted anywhere ever by the same writer.  It might suck, it might be great, it might cause the Mayan Doomsday Prophecy to happen 2 years early - I don't know.  But it'll be fun nonetheless.

The Cardinals are scuffling right now but are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league.  St Louis has had some success at Petco (10-9 against the Padres since the park opened).  Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in the NL, and the ace of the Cardinal staff.  Jon Garland has his work cut out for him, because the Padre offense won't get much from Adam.  Jamie Garcia is an early favorite for Rookie of the Year.  The other Cardinal starter is unsettled; both Brad Penny (who's turn it would be) and Kyle Lohse are on the DL after injuries suffered this weekend.  From the Cardinal perspective, it's great to bring a kid up and pitch in a pitcher's ballpark.  From the Padre perspective, it's fresh meat.

Amazingly, this series will pit two division leaders against each other (amazing because none of us expected the Padres to be in first place the week before Memorial Day) You'd think that'd mean a Wednesday Night Baseball gig, right?

No, it'll be Yankees/Twins.  What-ever.

Well That's More Like It

OK, first a mea culpa.  I spent last week in TAP class.  TAP stands for Transition Assistance Program, and is one of many things the military offers folks getting ready to 'transition' prepare for life on the outside.  The class was great, but it also meant I had to do actual work in the evenings - so I didn't get to write much.

Friday is softball night in these here parts, so I was able to listen to the game on the drive up to Hourglass.  I got out of the car with the Padres down 3-2 and Wade LeBlanc in a heck of a jam.  I got back in the car in time to hear San Diego score ... and make the score 15-5 Mariners.  Of all the things I thought would happen during Friday night's game, 23 runs and 30 hits combined did not enter into my calculations.

I don't think Wade LeBlanc enjoys his trips to Seattle.

Tonight's game was much more like what I expected when two of the weakest offenses in baseball hooked up.  Matt Stairs popped a couple of stitches on the ball he hit, didn't he?  True to form, the winning run scored on a wild pitch (USS Mariner has been rather vocal regarding the state of play by Seattle catchers this season.  Josh Bard has been the best of the bunch).  I thought Heath Bell was going to blow the save, but he managed to strike out Milton Bradley and get Casey Kotchman to ground out to end the game with runners on the corners.

So the Padres stay tied for first with Los Angeles, and open up a 2.5 game lead on San Francisco.

Tomorrow's game should be a doozy - Mat Latos and Felix Hernandez.  Looking forward to it.

5/15 Game Recap: Dodgers vs Padres

Went to tonight's ball game.  It did not turn out like I had hoped, as San Diego lost to LA 4-1.  This is not your normal recap.

1. Since the game was advertised a sellout, I felt we had to get there early.  So, my father-in-law and I left for the ballpark at 3:20 pm.  Thanks to little traffic, we were parked by 3:50 and in the ballpark by 4.
2. Hot Dogs and soda.  mmmmm.
3. The section immediately to our right was loaded with Dodger fans.  Also, the 4 folks immediately behind us were LA fans as well.  They rooted for their team with gusto, and got obnoxious from time to time, but I really didn't have a problem with any of that.  Having spent a great deal of time rooting for favorite teams in opposing ballparks, so long as they aren't in my face or throwing things at people I'm good.  Of course, as the game went on and the Dodgers put a hammer lock on the outcome, they got more and more vocal.  And after the game?  Whooo boy.  Lots of chanting and heckling as they exited the building.
4. Why give out 'Beat LA' t-shirts that are blue?  Yes it was a dark blue, but the Dodgers wear blue too.  Why not Sand (or, egads, brown/yellow)?  Make it stand out, marketing gurus.
5. Also, 'Beat LA' is what they chant in San Francisco at Giants games, and in Boston at Celtics games.  I think the chant originated in the Boston Garden during the 1980s NBA finals, but I could be wrong.  We need something different and original here to poke at the Dodgers.

Some game notes follow next.

Giant Killers

Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Padres would win the first six games of the season from the Giants, but that is exactly what has happened.  Never in my wildest dreams did I think the Padres would have the best record in the NL after 34 games, but that is exactly what has happened.  Never in my wildest dreams did I think Mat Latos would beat the Giants twice by a 1-0 score, but that is exactly what has happened.

I don't know if this is an indictiment of my dreams or the Padres are a better team than believed before the season started.

On the Podcast last night we talked about some potential problems the Padres have that could derail this strong start.  The superior pitching (starters due to regress, bullpen perhaps not).  Kyle Blanks' struggles at the plate.  The offensive hole at shortstop.  I also pointed out, however, the Pythagorean record for these Padres is 23-11.  Their actual record is 22-12.  This isn't a fluke, folks - they're playing as well as their record reflects.

Whether it's sustainable or not for the bulk of the season remains to be seen.  Fangraphs' Jack Moore posted today on how wide open the NL is in 2010 - seriously, almost everyone has a shot right now.  Should the Padres come back to earth and play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll win 86 games.  That might be good enough this year to win the Wild Card.

Some food for thought as we head into our first series with the Dodgers this weekend:

• San Diego has had a few longer winning streaks against the Giants.  To wit:
• Seven straight in 1982 (4/14 to 6/27),
• Ten straight in 1996 (5/1 to 9/16),
• Eight straight in 2007 (6/26 to 9/16).
• San Diego has never won the first 6 games of a season series from the Giants, though.
• Oddly (and as pointed out by Jerry Coleman I believe), both series with the Giants have produced the same game scores:  one game 3-2, one game 5-2, and one game 1-0.
• Jonathan Sanchez is probably talking to himself.  In his two starts against San Diego this year, he's thrown 15 innings, struck out 15 Padres, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs.  He's lost both games.

I don't know when the last time was a pitcher threw consecutive 1-0 victories against the same team.  I tried to do a search on Baseball Reference, and the Play Index feature laughed at me.  Here's what I did find:

• Since 1969 there have been 38 games decided 1-0 where the winning pitcher threw 9 innings gave up only 1 hit.
• Since 1920 there have been 209 games where the visitor threw a complete game and one-hit the home team.
• Of those 209 games, in only 29 the visiting pitcher threw the one-hitter and won 1-0.
• It was last done to the Giants at home (albeit in Candlestick) on August 20, 1986, by Don Corman of the Philadelphia Phillies.
• It was last done to the Padres at home (in Jack Murphy) on August 3, 1983, by Nolan Ryan of Houston.
• It has been done before by a Padre - the immortal Dan Spillner did it in Wrigley of all places, on June 19, 1974.  It was one of 2 shutouts he threw in a year he went 9-11.

Here's the coolest stat.  The last time a pitcher won a game on the road 1-0, threw a complete game one hitter, and drove in the lone run was June 26, 1955, when the Kansas City A's Alex Kellner beat Baltimore's Jim Wilson in old Memorial Stadium.  Oddly, the #8 hitter that day (catcher Joe Alstroth) doubled and Kellner followed with a single, exactly like what happened yesterday with Zawadski and Latos.

Coupled with his first start against Jonathan Sanchez, Mat Latos has now twice been involved in something this season not seen at the Major League level in at least 35 years.  Yesterday's game was more impressive because it's been 60 years since a pitcher did that.

He's killing the Giants in new and inventive ways.

Padres start a 5 game homestand tonight.  Saturday's game is sold out, and I'll be there.  Get out to the stadium and root on the best team in the NL.  They deserve it.

Still in first - YEE HA

First some administrative items.  We have a shortstop for the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars, and he is Yuniesky Betancourt.  Remember, this is all about the NAME, not the PLAYER.  Because if it was about the player, Betancourt'd be DFA'd today.  We also have a back-up catcher:  Humberto Quintero.  I love this name; it sounds like the nom-de-plume of a Roman Emperor.

Back to the Padres.  They won 2 of 3 from a bad Astro team over the weekend, which made me smile.  They could have swept, but Mujica decided to test the 'Minute Maid Park is a Band Box' theory (and he was proven wrong), and Jerry Hairston AIR-MAILED a throw to first in the ninth (which led to an unearned tying run).  Life goes on.

I have one complaint about this series, only one complaint really, and that is why was Jon Garland lifted after 7 innings and 83 pitches on Saturday night?  At the time he left, Garland had allowed 3 baserunners (2 hits and a walk), had retired the heart of the Houston order in the seventh, and had retired 7 of the last 8 hitters (he walked Keppinger to start the seventh, then retired him on a double play off the bat of Carlos Lee) he faced.

Eighty-three pitches is the fewest Garland has thrown in a game this season.  Why take him out?  Adams came in and gave up a run in the eighth, which further irked me.  Thankfully Bell slammed the door in the ninth.

I don't understand the 'setup man/closer' mentality when the starter is rolling along.  You never know when you might need to tax the bullpen in the future, so if you can rest everybody behind a dominating performance by the starter, I think you should.  Sadly the Padres had to go with an emergency starter on Sunday (Correia missed his start due to a family tragedy), which meant they needed all hands on deck.

Granted, Adams/Bell pitching on Saturday didn't figure into why the team lost on Sunday (see Mujica and Hairston, who we discussed above), but the next time it might not work out that way.  It just seemed foolish to me.

Padres start a 3-game set in San Francisco tonight.  First place is on the line.  I hope we can still say that when the Padres/Giants hook up in August - that'd be really cool.

Pitching Pitching and More Pitching (and lots of links!)

First, if haven't seen this team play (and judging by the attendance, you haven't), the Padres have managed to win a few games here and there.  With last night's 3-2 win, they sit 1.5 games ahead of the Giants in the NL West.

How are they doing it?  Not so much with the bat (19th overall in team AVG, 19th in wOBA, 19th in OPS), although they are 13th in BABIP.

Nope, it's been all about the pitching (4th in FIP, 1st in xFIP, 3rd in ERA).  In this series, they've had to have the pitching, because they've scored only 5 runs against the Colorado Rockies (while allowing 7), and yet have split the first two games of the series.

Kevin Correia pitched well Monday, but Ubaldo Jimenez was flat-out better.  That happens.

Speaking of Jimenez, Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the great names in baseball today, along with Yorvit Torrealba.  As such, they are now charter members of the Juan Eichelberger All-Stars, dedicated to recognizing great MLB player names.  Have a nominee?  Leave it in the comments.  Needs to be a current player, unless it's one of such superior quality it transcends time. 

Wade LeBlanc - 6 innings, 2 ER, 4 K?  Slacker.  Actually, he continues to strengthen his case for staying in the rotation long-term.  Had the Padres cashed in on any of the numerous chances Greg Smith created for them, Wade could have been the winning pitcher in this one.  Wade is second only to Correia in xFIP among the starters; in fact, the two of them are the only starters with xFIP's under 4.00.

We've talked a lot about LeBlanc vs Latos in the rotation; the original post on the subject generated discussion at at least three different Padres websites.  One of the Ducksnorts commenters suggested, should CY be activated, the odd man out be Sean Gallagher.  Based on his numbers, that makes a lot of sense.  As far as who would go to the pen in his place, I'd think I'd keep riding the hot hand in the rotation and send Latos there.  That, of course, is subject to change based on how the season progresses.

Speaking of Chris Young...

Mow them down

Our season ticket package included tonight's game, and needless to say it portended to be a doozy.  Ubaldo Jimenez, you may have read, is pretty good; something about 5-0, 0.79 ERA, and a no-hitter coming into the game.  Kevin Correia has won his last 4 starts after losing his first in Colorado.  AND, I have both on my NL-only Rotisserie team.  Oh, goody.  Except that life intervened, and we couldn't make the game.  Luckily I had an inkling this might happen, and set the TIVO to record it, which I watched on fast forward (always an interesting way to watch a game).

It's one thing to watch Yovani Gallardo strike out 11 Padres with a large assist from the home plate Umpire.  It's quite another to watch someone strikeout 13 by completely overpowering the Padres.  Ubaldo overpowered the Padres.  Joe Posnanski famously predicted Ubaldo Jimenez would win the NL Cy Young.  Seeing as he's started 6-0 this season, it's easy to see why, and agree with him.

As dominant at Jimenez was, the Padres had their chances.  First and third, two out in the first (Venable strikes out swinging - albeit strike 2 and 3 were check-swing strikes courtesy of the appeal to third)  Hairston left at third in the second (he made it there with one out).  Torrealba left at second in the third.  Gwynn Jr left at third in the fourth.  After Gwynn was stranded, however, Rockie pitchers retired 12 in a row; by then, there were two out in the ninth and the Padres trailed 5-1.

You can't win them all.  Had we been there, we would have seen the Padres lose for the second time this season; they've lost 4 times at home all year.  So apparently, I should be allowed in the building for all Home Openers (having seen the Padres score 10 or more runs in an inning on Opening Day twice), and not for any other game (I'm 1-2 in the other 3 games, the Padres are 9-4 at home since the Opening Day blowout).

Today's interesting tidbit (and thanks for reading this far).  Last night marked the 84th time at least 14 Padres have struck out in a game.  They've also struck out 29 times combined in two separate games over a span of three days or less several times in their history (courtesy of the team batting game finder feature at Baseball Reference):

• June 17 and 19, 2008 (Yankees)
• May 23 and 25, 2008 (Reds - San Diego actually won the game on the 25th, 12-9, although they struck out 19 times in that game)
• 14/15 May, 2008 (Cubs) (BOY that 2008 team struck out a lot)
• 21/22 Apr 2006 (Mets - won the 21 Apr game 2-1)
• 6 and 8 July, 1995 (Astros)

Hoffman Saves win for Rob Drake - home plate umpire

Yovani Gallardo pitched a great game - 1 ER, 121 pitches, 11K.  Interestingly, 7 of those strikeouts were looking.  Having watched most of the game, I thought home plate umpire Rob Drake called a generous left corner (as I looked at it through the CF camera).  Pitches off the plate, from belt high to a baseball width below the knees, on that corner were called strikes. 

As a result, fourteen Padres were punched out, along with eight Brewers.  Of the 54 outs recorded, 22 were by strikeout.  And they say umpires can't have an effect on the game.

We also learned what it takes to wake up the normally sedate Padre crowd:  Adrian Gonzalez getting ejected.  Jerry Hairston Jr's reaction after being called out to end the sixth didn't to it, but Adrian arguing about his second called strike three did.  All the strike 3 pitches were off the plate, at least, based on the excellent view I had from my couch.


Why is it umpires today feel the need to return fire when a player questions a ball/strike call?  Did Drake really need to point at Gonzo while Headley was shepherding Adrian to the dugout?  Gonzo's an All-Star and one of the best players in the NL, so you decide to take issue with HIS arguing, as opposed to Hairston Jr who has a little less notoriety?

At any rate, the fans really got on Drake after that.  At least until Hoffman came in.  It's tough for me to watch Trevor pitch against the Padres, given how many games he saved for the Padres during his career.  Hoffman has struggled on the mound this season, blowing at least 4 saves I can remember.  But he was able to retire the Padres in order tonight for the win.

There's been a lot of bad umpiring behind the plate in this series, and tomorrow we get Joe West.  Yee Ha.

There may be something to this

The Padres broke their 8-game winning streak on Sunday, when Mike Adams gave up 2 runs in the eighth to Cincinnati.  They lost that game 5-4.  They then went out and got drubbed by Florida (thanks Josh Johnson) 10-1.

Ut-oh.  Was that the beginning of a crash to earth for the Padres?  With Garland pitching Tuesday night (who had struggled so far in 2010), and Correia on Wednesday (who is not the same pitcher on the road he is at home), one wondered if the salad days were over.  Remember, they started 2009 9-3 and then struggled mightily until after the All-Star break.

Nope.  Jon Garland was tremendous for the second start in a row.  Correia?  Well, Kevin wobbled through 5 yesterday, but the offense bailed him out, and the bullpen slammed the door getting the last 12 outs.  Series win.

The Padres return tonight off a 4-2 road trip, and in sole possession of first place in the Division.  Nice.  They face a sterner test this weekend in the offensively-loaded Milwaukee Brewers, but Milwaukee's Achilles heel is it's starting pitching, so they have a good chance to keep the momentum going.

Adding fuel to the fire of hope starting to burn brightly around San Diego is Daniel's latest post.  During the off-season, the team shifted gears slightly by emphasizing team speed and defense on the roster.  So far, they rank #1 in the league in UZR/150 and third in Defensive Runs Saved.  Given how hard it is to score runs in Petco, and the old saw 'speed never goes into a slump', that has all the earmarks of a sustainable approach to the season.

With the bullpen being lights out as usual (and in spite of my concerns regarding overuse), the starters just need to be good enough, and the offensive just needs to be average, for this team to compete.  And contend.

There may be something to this.  It could be a fun summer in San Diego.

Tonight I'm at the ballpark (7:05 start).  It's Podcast night, but the 'Cast may not start promptly at 10pm, based on the game.  I won't start the show until the game is over and I'm in the car headed home, which means if you've got a comment for the chat room or want to call in PLEASE BE PATIENT.  I won't know you're there until I'm back in front of my computer, which might be a while (depending on traffic).

Latos vs LeBlanc in the rotation?

Something I've been thinking about for the better part of a week is what to do with Wade LeBlanc.  The reasons why I've been wondering, well, I'll explain at the bottom of the post.  The Padres are in an enviable position, because they will have too many starting pitchers when Chris Young comes off the DL.  Note that I'm not considering Tim Stauffer, who was a candidate to start during spring training, in this discussion, as he is doing a nice job out of the Padre bullpen.  San Diego has been able to let Chris Young rehab at his own pace is because of their depth in the rotation.

LeBlanc has pitched very well since taking CY's spot in the rotation.  Latos, outside of the scintillating start against San Francisco, has struggled. With Young almost ready to resume his place, the Padres have a tough call to make:  who gets sent back to Portland?

Here's my thought:  it's not as simple as giving Wade LeBlanc a ticket to Oregon.  Based on performance so far this year, Latos might be a better choice.

Let's take the emotion out of it and look at this objectively.

1.  Latos (4 starts): 20 1/3 IP, 14 R (all earned), 24 H, 6 BB, 13K, 5 HR.  WHIP = 1.527, ERA = 6.20.  Granted, half the runs he allowed happened last night.
2.  LeBlanc (2 starts):  11 IP, 1 R (earned), 10 H, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR.  WHIP = 1.273, ERA = 0.82.

LeBlanc, despite making two fewer starts and throwing 9 1/3 fewer innings, has only three fewer strikeouts, is allowing fewer baserunners, and has a miniscule ERA.

Since Earned Run Average is an inherently flawed metric, a deeper look is in order.  Here are a little more advanced statistics, ones currently commonly accepted as being good measures of the quality of a pitcher (i.e., they take the defense out of the equation).  The first two take into account Latos' start last night, the last two don't.

K/BB ratio:  Latos 2.16, LeBlanc 2.5.
K/9:  Latos 5.76, LeBlanc 8.18.
FIP:  Latos 5.46, LeBlanc 2.30.
xFIP:  Latos 3.99, LeBlanc 3.42.

You can keep looking at your convenience.  By all the statistical measures I reviewed, however, at this moment in history Wade LeBlanc is pitching better than Mat Latos.  I'm not saying we should give up on Latos, or that 4 years down the road he won't be the best starter on the team - we shouldn't, and he might.  But today - for this team - LeBlanc is currently the better option.

And let's not forget how close the #5 starter competition was in spring training.  Latos beat-out LeBlanc the last week of March, so it's not like Latos' making the team was a slam-dunk.  These guys graded out virtually even, with Latos being just slightly better.

So who do the Padres send down?  They ought to, in my opinion, seriously consider Latos.  Now, LeBlanc's next start is at home against Milwaukee (Thursday night).  If he lays an egg, then perhaps you keep working with Latos and send LeBlanc back down.  But if LeBlanc shuts down the Marlins Brewers, a team that just got finished torturing Latos a very good hitting team, well, that's another point for Wade staying in San Diego.

I really need to hire a proofreader.

(why I started pondering this:  I have Wade LeBlanc on my NL-only Rotisserie League fantasy team, and I was trying to decide if I should keep him or trade him.)

Two of three ain't bad

Everyone knew the Padres weren't going to finish the season 156-6.  They were going to lose another game in 2010.  I think most of us, however, figured it wouldn't be yesterday, especially after Kyle Blanks doubled in two to give the team a 4-2 lead after 5 1/2 innings.

Scott Rolen's HR made the game close after 6, but after turning the contest over to the bullpen one had to like the Padres' chances.  Going into Sunday, the Padres bullpen was one of only 2 in the NL not to have lost a game (the other?  Pittsburgh.  Go figure), the third lowest ERA (3.02), and the best Batting Average Against (.190).  Looking good.

Unfortunately, Mike Adams couldn't get the game to Heath Bell.  Cincinnati scored 2 in the eighth, and won 5-4.  Bye-bye, 8 game winning streak.

You gotta like where the Padres are now, though.  Form 3-6 to 11-7, and the best record in the NL.  The team is pitching its butt off, and they are getting just enough production offensively (10th in the NL with a .736 OPS).  There is some cause for concern, though:  Padre starters aren't getting deep enough into games.

Flabbergasted

Yep, that's right - speechless.  No way did I expect the Padres to sweep San Francisco, no way did I expect them to win 7 of 9 on this homestand, no way did I expect them to be in first place by themselves today.

It's nice to be wrong sometimes.  It does leave one with little to say.

The Padres have tonight off and are enroute to Cincinnati.  Your projected matchups:

Friday - Correia vs Johnny Cueto
Saturday - LeBlanc vs Bronson Arroyo
Sunday - Richard vs Homer Bailey

The winning streak will probably end in Cincinnati, but they can definitely take 2 of the three there.

Podcast tonight at 10pm.  You know the drill.  Bring your questions and comments.  See you then!

Clip And Save

During last night's radio broadcast, at least the 2 innings I was able to listen to, Ted Leitner told a story about the early 1980s Padres teams and the standings.  He remembered a season where the Padres were in first place in early May, an unusual event for the franchise that had only been in first if they won on Opening Day. The SD U-T printed the NL West standings inside a dashed box with the annotation "CLIP AND SAVE".

FWIW, I looked at Padre season results from 1976-1986, and I think he was referring to 27 April 1982.  That year the Padres opened 12-4 and were tied for first.  They lost the next night and never got back atop the division.  I assumed that after 1984 being in first place wouldn't have been that novel a thing.

Well, for a franchise that's lost 90+ games 85+* games the last two seasons, it's refreshing to be on top of the division, even if it's only after 14 games.  After winning last night 1-0, that's exactly where the Padres find themselves. (*ed note:  saw a comment at Gaslamp Ball by Zach regarding this post and the 09 Padres.  Zach's right - they lost 87 last year.  My bad.)

I've been thinking about doing game summaries here, similar to what USS Mariner does, but Geoff over at Ducksnorts already does a real good job of it, and he has the added benefit of attending the games.  I, on the other hand, chase small children around the house at night when I'm not standing in the drizzle on a softball diamond.

It didn't rain hard enough to stop the game, but it did rain enough to be annoying.  AND we had a double header last night.  AND I pitched.  Suffice it to say, from the neck down I looked like a drowned rat. It was a good night to wear multiple layers of clothing.

However I will make a couple of points:

1.  One hit?  That's all we got?   During the post game on XX 1090, this little factoid came up:  the Padres had only won one other time when they got a single hit. (July 19, 1975).  They scored their runs on two bases-loaded walks in the sixth inning.  Last night was the first game in franchise history won 1-0 on only one hit.  It's not just a rare event for the Padres, it's a rare event in baseball.  Since 1974 there's been only 9 other games decided 1-0 with the winner having a single hit.  In 7 of those 9 games the single hit was a solo HR.  The other two:

• 7 Sept 86:  Giants beat Montreal on a hit by pitch, stolen base, wild pitch, and double (the lone hit).  Run scored in the top of the first.
• 27 April 02:  Seattle beats the Yankees on a walk, wild pitch, and single (the lone hit).

2.  That means last night was the first third first game in 35 years where the lone hit didn't drive in the run. Pretty cool. (I was right the first time.)

3.  How many times can you say the key play of the game involved the first baseman falling into the camera well?  That's just ridiculous.  Consider that if Aubrey Huff could have somehow kept his balance Headley wouldn't have been able to advance.  They might still be playing.

4.  Jonathan Sanchez is a beast.  You probably already knew that, seeing as he no-hit the Padres last year. He has also posted back-to-back 10 strikeout games.  First time in his career he's done that.  Thirty-four pitchers have also done this (since 2006).  Only 7 of them had a third game of 10+ strikeouts, and it's a who's who of pitching studs the last 5 years (Peavy, Sabathia, Lester, Johan Santana, Verlander, Harden, Lackey).

Padres go for the sweep this afternoon.  Clip and Save.

Five Hundred

If you were panicking before Friday, you're probably exultant today.  Padres sweep those pesky Diamondbacks, right the ship at .500, and are tied for second place in the NL West (two behind San Francisco).

We ought not to get too euphoric, however.  The Padres received significant help from a band of arsonists known as the Diamondback bullpen corps.  To wit:

• Friday:  Starter Edwin Jackson throws six shutout.  Heilman, Howry, and Gutierrez combine to allow 6 runs in 2 2/3, with Gutierrez being tagged for 4.
• Saturday:  Kevin Correia was nails, and the Padres led by 2 after six.  Even with that, Norberto surrendered 3 more runs in 2/3 of an inning of work.
• Sunday:  Padres trail 2-0 entering the seventh.  Friday night Match Light brothers Heilman and Gutierrez combine to allow 5 runs in the inning and lose the game.

Against the Diamondback starters the Padres scored 2 runs in 17 innings.  Against the bullpen?  14 runs in 6 2/3.  Most teams will not have the soft bullpen Arizona currently sports.  The team needs to create more runs early in games, so they can get to the Gregerson/Adams/Bell end and not rely on late inning heroics.

It is comforting, though, to know they have the ability to come back late if they need to.

Some other thoughts:

It's Still Not Time To Panic

I talked to this a little bit on the Podcast last night, but even though the Padres are currently 3-6 this is not the time to panic.  Remember the following:

• Padres lost 2 of 3 in Arizona.  The Padres ALWAYS lose 2 of 3 in Arizona.
• Padres lost 2 of 3 in Colorado.  The Padres faced Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa in that series, Colorado's two best pitchers.
• Padres lost 2 of 3 to Atlanta.  They faced Tommy Henson and Tim Hudson, Atlanta's two best pitchers.

So now is not the time to pull the plug.  There are some things that should concern us as fans, though.

• Of the twelve total runs Atlanta scored on Wednesday and Thursday, 10 of them scored with two outs.  That's a problem.
• The Padres scored two of their three runs after two away, so that's something good.  However San Diego left 10 on base Wednesday (6 in scoring position), 9 yesterday (5 in scoring position).  That's also a problem.  The 'clutch hit-itis' extends throughout the lineup, as Blanks, Headley, J. Hairston, T Gwynn, and Eckstein have all left a guy or guys in scoring position.
• Additionally, the Padres have loaded the bases three times in the last 2 games, twice Thursday alone.  They did not score a run in any of those situations.

I know there's not been (to date) a credible study on clutch hitting as a measurable skill - hitting with the bases loaded, statistically, and getting a hit is no different from hitting with the bases empty.  I wonder, though, if the mental stress of trying not to make an out weighs on these hitters and they start to press, expand the strike zone, etcetera.

I would consider these areas items to address by the coaching staff, as opposed to discovered weaknesses in the team.

The Padres face Arizona this weekend, and will throw Garland/Correia/ plus one against the back of the Diamondback rotation.  This weekend the team should win 2 of 3.  If they don't, well, then we can raise the concern level from 'its early' to 'anxious'.

A Call To Action

Padres lost last night 6-1 to Atlanta.  There's a reason Tommy Hanson's considered one of the elite young pitchers in the league.  Secretly all of us kind of expected the Padre offense to be flat yesterday after the 17-run explosion on Monday.

But that's not what this post is about.

My wife, someone not easily dissuaded from pursuing things she wants, contacted the Padres Store and spoke with customer service regarding merchandise for women carrying the new military logo.  If you haven't seen the logo, here it is:

The women she spoke with was very nice, but told her the Padres are phasing in items carrying the new logo, and it will be a long time, if EVER, before they start carrying women's clothing with that design.

This kind of blows my mind. In a military town, with female service members, why would the Padres elect to follow that course? Not to mention the thousands of military spouses in the greater San Diego area, and Padres fans stationed throughout the world, who might find this apparel cool enough to wear.

I'm throwing this out to you. My wife was the first person to call and ask about women's clothing with the military logo. If you or someone you know is or would be interested in buying women's apparel with this design, please call Corin at the Padres store at (619) 795-5921 to make the request. Should enough people call in to ask about this, the Padres may change their marketing plan to support and start carrying these items.

I want to emphatically state I am not trying to start a 'Padres discriminate against women' campaign with this request for assistance.  I think they've made a marketing mistake only.  They won't change their plans unless we as fans and consumers voice concerns and interest.

Thank you.

Podcast tonight at 10pm.  You know the drill.

Odds and Ends from the Opener

I did a post yesterday on the game highlights from the opener.  This post contains some of my observations from the game that aren't necessarily tied to the game action.  I thought you, gentle reader, might enjoy them.

Parking - we left for the ballpark at 1330, and I immediately realized all my regular parking hid-e-holes would be either (a) filled with downtown workers, or (b) still on the "2-hour parking only" plan.  So we went in with only hope in our hearts.  I ended up on K street at the $20 lot right next to the main Padre lot.  Why would I pay $20 to park?  Because all I had on me were $20s (unlike normal when all I carry are hundreds), and if you park in a $15 lot without change you end up putting $20 in the machine anyway.

The lot we picked quickly devolved into a clusterf**k, because there were only a fixed number of spots open, with the rest marked RESERVED.  Except the parking lot gurus left two entrances open, for only one attendant to try and control, so you had people entering from both directions and parking in open spots regardless of how they were marked.  After some terse negotiations, the Head Parking Lot Guy for that particular little lot showed up, and closed the lot to new folks, while telling those of us in the lot already to park wherever we could find an open spot.  Kudos to the Head Parking Guy for defusing what could have become an explosive situation.  And, I got a great spot less than 5 min from the stadium.

Lanyards - Season Tix holders (which we are this year, first time since 2001) get a plastic ticket holder and lanyard complimentary from the Padres.  Cool, eh?  Except my wife went to put hers on and the lanyard immediately broke.  Which began "The Saga To Find A New Lanyard":

• To the Padres Rewards window - the usher there sends us to the Guest Services booth.
• Guest Services - has no lanyards, they send us back to the Padres Rewards window.
• Padres Rewards - they have no lanyards, they send us to the Padre Ticket Office.
• Padres Ticket Office - they have no Season Ticket Holder lanyards, tell us to go to the ticket office OUTSIDE THE STADIUM

So no replacement lanyard yet.  We'll try again at our next game.

Padres Store - We went looking for clothing sporting the new Military logo.  They have some for sale in the stadium stores but all men's styles and sizes.  Of course my wife wants a women's style shirt with the logo. The Padres apparently didn't believe women would want this sort of thing, because they don't carry any women's clothing with the military logo on them in the main (or satellite) Padres store in the stadium.  Weird.

Game Notes
- At what point can I make fun of people wearing concert t-shirts for bands there's no way they saw live?  An attractive blonde in our section was sporting a 'Led Zeppelin' T-shirt.  She was 21 (based on the beers she carried), but even if she was 31 she'd have been a year old when the band broke up, she wasn't attending concerts as a 1-year old.  Is there a new fashion trend to wear concert tees I'm not aware of?

 - I recommend the Baja Bistro.  Excellent Baja Nachos, and the Carne Asada burrito wasn't bad either.  Also, they have Belgian White Ale on tap, which I HIGHLY recommend.

- One Marine in the pre-game ceremonial formation out in the outfield.  One.  And he made the rest look bad.  We make light of the Marines in the Navy, but when it comes to dress uniforms, they put us to shame.  Semper Fi, Mac.

- Padres handed out little magazines at the gate, which included a scorecard.  A nice touch.  The scorecard is a bit on the tiny side, in that it has enough room to record the game action, but not enough to take detailed notes.  Then again, what do you want for free?

- The Opening Day T-shirts are nice.  Thanks.

- If the whole stadium wins 2 free tacos from Jack in the Box, coupons will be handed out at the exits (vice using your ticket stub).  Those coupons don't start showing up until the 8th inning.  So, if you're watching a blowout, and gotta have a free taco, you're going to have to wait until the 8th.

- The Second Class Sonar Tech who sang 'God Bless America' was awesome.  I think his name was Best.  Also, the National Anthem was well done too - I liked the acoustic guitar accompaniment.

Richard v Hanson today.

Well That Was Fun

Did I mention I was going to Opening Day?  I'm sure I did.  And what an opener it was.  You don't see a team score 10 runs in an inning very often, especially on Opening Day.

Well most people don't.  As Michael Weston likes to say, "I am not most people."  I've seen this before - thirteen years ago.  On April 1, 1997, the Padres hung an 11-spot on Pete Harnisch and the Mets (sixth inning).  I believe it is the most runs San Diego has ever scored on Opening Day in one inning.  And yes, it is the only other Opening Day I've ever been to.  I'm sure I have a ticket stub lying around the house somewhere.

I should tell the Padres to make sure I attend the home opener every 13 years.  It's a guarantee they'll score at least 10 runs in the game, and probably all in the same inning.

Some thoughts about yesterday's game:

1.  It rained during the Padre introductions.  I've never been to a Padre game where it actually rained.  Thankfully the rain only lasted until the national anthem was sung, then the sun came out and remained out (off and on) the rest of the day.

2.  I thought Kevin Correia pitched from behind a lot yesterday.  The stats bear it out to a point:  of the 25 hitters he faced, he started 12 with a ball, 11 with a strike, and 2 hit the first pitch.  That's not terrible, but not great.  After the Padres exploded for 10 runs in the fourth, he didn't improve:  Five first pitch balls, five first pitch strikes.  With a 10-run lead, wouldn't you pound the strike zone?  Seemed curious.

In fairness, "Big Ed" Mujica wasn't much better (2 1-0 counts, 3 0-1 counts).  Adam Russell, however, pounded the strike zone (1 1-0, 5 0-1 counts).

3.  Everth Cabrera laid down a bunt in the third inning, and almost beat it out. If he had pushed it a little further up the line he would have.

4.  The fourth inning was a little bit luck, and a little bit of great hitting:

• Chase Headley reaches on a ball just out of Nate McLouth's reach in center.  McLouth then rolls over the ball, and Headley hustles into second.
• Will Venable singles to center.  I thought they should have sent Headley, but Glenn Hoffman held him up. A smattering of boos when that happened, but in the end it really didn't matter.
• Nick Hundley and Tony Gwynn Jr walk, forcing in a run.
• The first of 3 key at bats in the inning:  Correia fouls off two balls, then he's late on a fastball...but manages to send it down the RF line for a single and 2 RBI.  Bad luck for Jair Jurrjens.
• Second of 3 key at bats.  Atlanta brings the infield in, and Cabrera hits a ground ball to the left of second baseman Martin Prado.  Prado makes the play, then throws home; Gwynn beats the tag at the plate.  It was a slowly hit chopper, and I was surprised Prado tried to throw home.  He had a play at first on Cabrera (he had no play at second on Correia based on defensive positioning).
• After Jurrjens retires David Eckstein on a fly to right, Adrian Gonzalez tattoos this next pitch to LC for a ground rule.  That ended up being Jurrjens' last pitch of the day.
• The third key at bat.  Jo-Jo Reyes comes in to face Kyle Blanks.  Blanks works a 11-pitch at bat and then lines a double into the LF corner.  Awesome.
• Venable completes the scoring with his 3-R HR to RC.  That ball was crushed.  I thought it was out when he hit it, if it had enough height to clear the wall.  It did, barely.

5.  Point against the new 3:35 start times - in the sixth inning Venable lost Prado's lazy fly ball in the sun (or at least, in the sky).  The ball was emminently catchable.  Correia could have retired the side in order, but instead, after striking out Chipper Jones looking he gave up single/single/walk/walk and left the game.  Maybe it was just yesterday's cloud-flecked sky that caused Venable to lose track of the ball, but it's too bad.  Thankfully the game was well in hand when those 2 runs scored.

6.  Scott Hairston's single in the seventh was a direct result of Brave pitcher Reyes falling asleep on the mound.  If Reyes gets over to cover first, Hairston's out.

42, 843 attended.  All in all a fun day.  I'll have some other notes tomorrow on non-game related items.

Padres are off today.

Check This Out

So the Padres lost 4-2 today.  Ubaldo pitched well, Garland battled, the Padres tried to come back and fell short.  Ho hum.

Since I don't have much to say about the game, I will instead share this REALLY COOL screen grab from ESPN's Gameday coverage of yesterday's game:

Now when you look carefully, you'll notice it says:

• Strike One (Foul)
• Strike Two (Foul)
• Ball 1
• Strike 3 (looking)
• STRIKE 4 (FOUL)
• In Play (Hariston Jr Singles to Center)

Congratulations to Jerry Hairston Jr for being the first ML hitter in recorded history to strike out looking, yet get two more pitches in the same at bat and reach base safely on a single to CF!

Actually sometimes Gameday hiccups a little bit.  This is one of the better hiccups I've seen.

Bullpen Stiffens, Padres Win

In only the fifth game of the season, it's a bit early to call a game 'must-win'.  That said, you can bet the Padres didn't want to go into Sunday's game with a 1-4 record, especially with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound.  Happily they won't.

Matt Latos was bitten by the HR bug, which has plagued the staff early on this season, and left the game in a 4-4 tie after six.  Eight stout innings by the bullpen held off the Rockies long enough for San Diego to figure out how to push a run across, and the Padres outlasted Colorado 5-4 in 14 innings.  Eight innings of 2-hit ball by the relief corps.  In fact, after Hawpe's HR tied the game at 4 in the sixth, the Rockies didn't get a hit until the 12th.  Tremendous effort by the bullpen.

It's late, and in a game dominated by the bullpen there's not much to add.  Well maybe one thing.  San Diego continues to do dumb things on the bases.  Tonight Gwynn got picked off second in the first inning (and he was out, good call).  Headley got cut down trying to stretch a single to a double in the second.  But neither of those blunders hold a candle to Nick Hundley getting PICKED OFF FIRST with runners on the corners and one out in the fourth.  Nick was trying to steal second.  Nick.  The catcher.  In an inning where the Padres had already scored three runs, where Hammel had walked two, hit a batter, and was clearly on the ropes, they decided to put Hundley in motion on a 3-1 count.  Of course Cabrera doubled right after that out was recorded.  Of course he did.

Hey Bud Black:  All those cool points you earned by playing hit and run on an 0-2 count Friday night?  You lost them with that call Saturday.

The Padres came into spring training preaching aggressiveness on the bases, and they played that way throughout March.  But since the regular season started, they've been over-aggressive in my opinion.  They ran themselves out of the eighth inning Friday, and they cost themselves a run (which led to 5 innings of extra baseball) Saturday.

Rubber game today.  Jon Garland looks to rebound from his poor opening day start.  Ubaldo Jimenez looks to keep rolling along as one of the unsung aces in the National League.

Programming note:  I will be at the Home Opener Monday.  If you will be too, email me at padrestrail@gmail.com.  I'd be happy to meet anyone willing to admit reading this here blog.

Whoop Dee Doo

I didn't have a lot of faith in Jorge De La Rosa.  Yeah, he had a fantastic end of the season in 2009; after dropping his first 6 decisions, he finished winning 16 of his next 19.  He was just above average as a pitcher (ERA+ of 105), and had a tremendous K/9 rate (9.4).

We've seen this sort of thing before, at least with the 16-3 record after 5 June.  1984:  Rick Sutcliffe won 16 of 17 after being traded to the Cubs.  1985:  John Tudor won 20 of 21 after June 3 for the Cardinals.  It was a one-time deal for them, so I naturally assumed 2009 was a one-time aberration for De La Rosa. 

It might still be.  It wasn't yesterday.  De La Rosa made the Padres look silly (7IP, 1 ER, 9K), as the Rockies won their home opener 7-0.

I don't want to belabor the point - you've probably read all about it elsewhere - but I wanted to point out a couple of things.

Clayton Richard pitched well.  He gave up 2 runs on a one out single by Ian Stewart in the third.  Richard broke Stewart's bat on the pitch, and the ball still landed in the outfield.  What can you do?  The other was a solid single to Todd Helton in the fifth.  Helton isn't the hitter he was 10 years ago, but he's still very dangerous, and his .427 career OBP is the best in the majors right now.

Everth Cabrera.  He saved a run in the third on Dexter Fowler's hit up the middle.  By getting to it, he was able to hold Carlos Gonzalez at third.  Helton then grounded out to first and ended the threat.  It's also been a long time since I saw someone steal a base so cleanly he was on the base before the throw arrived, as Cabrera did in the eighth.  Too bad he couldn't stop his momentum and got himself tagged out.  Tulowitzki did what all middle infielders are taught to do:  he kept the ball on the baserunner until the umpire made a call.  Cabrera kept going, Tulo kept tagging, and the umpire got the call right.

Hit and run on 0-2?  The Padres talked all spring about being aggressive.  With Kyle Blanks on at first and two out, Manager Bud Black started Blanks while Headley faced an 0-2 count.  This is completely against conventional widsom.

• You don't start a runner who is slow,
• You don't start a runner with two out, because if he's thrown out that ends the inning (unless its a full count)
• You don't start a runner 0-2.  2-0, 2-1?  Sure.  But not 0-2.

Hitting a baseball is tough enough.  Making contact when down in the count 0-2, when the pitcher holds all the aces and you're just trying to be defensive, is REALLY tough.  Did it work?  Of course it worked.  Headley singled through the hole vacated by Rockie second baseman Clint Barmes, Blanks went to third.  Too bad S. Hairston stuck out swinging to end the inning.

This is a fine example of why Bud Black is the manager and I'm not.  I sure wouldn't have the cojones to put that play on in that situation of a scoreless game.  Well done, Mr. Black. 

Padres Lose 2 of 3 in Arizona. Also, the Sun Continues to Set In the West

I've just finished watching the Padres lose 5-3 to Arizona, meaning they start the season dropping two of their first three.  This is not unusual; the Padres have dropped 2 of every 3 in Arizona since they started playing National League baseball in Phoenix in 1993.  It would have been more unusual if they had won tonight's game to WIN the series.  They've only won 2 of their last 10 series in Arizona, going back to the start of the 2007 season.  Hence the 'sun sets in the West' title.

Out of morbid curiosity I looked at Padre futility on the road since 1993.  Here is their winning percentage against the NL, on the road, in that span:

Pittsburgh - .605

Florida - .507

Milwaukee, Mets - .500

Cincinnati - .485

Los Angeles - .478

Cubs, Philadelphia - .472

Colorado - .455

Houston - .452

San Fran - .446

Washington/Montreal - .406

Arizona - .330

Atlanta - .313

St Louis - .265

The Diamondbacks have owned them in the desert.  I'm sure Arizona reacted with high fives and smiles upon seeing the 2010 schedule, much like the Padres probably groaned.

The sad thing is San Diego could easily have won this series.  Opening Day?  No chance, Haren was dealing.  Tuesday night?  C.Y. returned the favor.  Tonight?  They jumped out to a 3-1 lead but couldn't hold it.  Last year Kevin Correia gave up 2 HR total in March/April. He gave up 3 tonight (Dick Enberg's somewhat perplexing call on the first one notwithstanding.  I think he believed Hairston had a play on that ball.)  Thirty-three starts, 17 HR in 2009.  One start, 3 HR.  He's on pace to give up 99 HR, and that'd be some sort of Padre record.

Also he makes me look pretty silly for suggesting he should have gotten the Home Opener next Monday.  Thanks Kevin.  I don't need any help to look silly, dude.  I'm sure Correia will straighten things out for his next start against Atlanta.

In the meantime, San Diego has tomorrow off and travels to Denver for 3.  They'll miss Aaron Cook and Randy Wolf, but get Ubaldo and Jorge De La Rosa.

Don't fret about no baseball Thursday - there's always the Padres Trail Podcast to scratch that baseball itch.  10pm at the usual place.  It's just me to lull you into a false sense of security, and we've extended the show to a full hour (although it may not run that long), so feel free to call or chat with me.

Podcast Recap

Spent an hour talking to Steve Adler of Friarhood, Peter Friberg of Padres RunDown, and Web SoulSurfer of websoulsurfer last night on the Podcast.  We also had Mike from Avenging Jack Murphy, and for a time RJ's Fro in the chatroom during the discussion.  That's a lot of Padres expertise in one chat, and it generated a high level of discussion, references to Joe Randa aside.

Some of the highlights:

- No issues with Jon Garland/Chris Young making the opening day starts (on the road and at home, respectively).  Who the leader of this staff will be needs to be sorted out amongst the guys in the rotation; it may not be Young by default based on seniority.

- Wade LeBlanc will definitely be up this season, if for no other reason than attrition during the 162-game season.

- Lots of discussion on potential trades should the Padres fall out of the race.  Heath Bell, Chris Young, Gonzo moving all covered.  Listening to the podcast is worth it just for that part.

- The Padres are pretty deep at second base, according to Pete.  I was not aware of this.  Even if Antonelli doesn't carry his spring training success into the AAA schedule, the Padres have some up and comers in their farm system.

- All agreed Catcher is still an organizational concern, but aren't worried about the offensive production from that position as much as how they call a game, shut down the opposition's running game, and so on.  Lots of love for Hundley (and some for Dusty Ryan), not so much for Torrealba.

A great way to conclude the spring training season and get ready for Opening Day on Monday at Arizona.  Besides, the Padres beat Anaheim in Anaheim while the podcast was in progress - doesn't get much better than that.

NL West Predictions and Tonight's Podcast

I've made some fearless predictions for how the NL West will play out, over at Stan Musial's Stance.  Please go here to read the full story, but here's how I project the final standings:

1.  Colorado
2.  Padres
3.  Los Angeles
4.  San Francisco
5.  Arizona

On to bigger news.  Tonight on the Podcast we'll be talking about the Padre roster, and projections for how they'll finish in 2010.  The show will be graced, and significantly improved, with the contributions of Websoulsurfer, Steve from Friarhood, and Peter from Padres RunDown.  You can find the show and chat room here.  This promises to be a great night of amateur radio, and I hope you will find your way there.